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Tiger! Tiger! Burning Bright

#1 Auburn wins the championship with a decisive win over #6 TCU, becoming the kings of the 10th CFBHC season.

Pack Up The Playoffs

The Packers steamrolled the playoffs, defeating the Dolphins by 20 to win Super Bowl IX; this is their second title in three seasons.

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  1. 63 points
    Soluna

    Apologies

    I would like to apologize to those that have been hurt directly by my words or actions over the course of their time here. Theres probably a much larger number than the specific person I'd like to call out but please know that I do truly mean it. In particular I'd like to apologize to @deandean1998 for harmful words I've said in the past. It was taken too far and I hope this apology reaches him even if he is no longer here. I'd like to thank to Darmam in particular for talking to me personally in a responsible and friendly way. If you plan to continue to enjoy this site he can be thanked far more than what it seems. I'll be instituting some rules and site changes over the next few weeks to assure a consistent and peaceful environment on this site. Please know that I've read every single "testimonial" posted in aliens channel and every single pm I received (both on here and discord) even if I did not respond to them directly. I will spend the next few months to focus on improving the user experience on this site as a priority and hopefully we can all help in this endeavor together. Darman has had some great ideas to improve communication and general morale on the site and I can't think of a better person to help me improve the weakest aspect of this community. To those who have chosen to leave I can honestly say I'll miss you. Not everyone is my friend but I've still known some of you for quite a long time. Yes Ted even you. To those who are staying I ask only one thing, please help me in my sincere attempt to improve the site and to make sure this continues to become the best possible place for people to escape their lIves for even just a few minutes a day. To Darman, thank you for your words and thank you for lIstening. You've done far more than you can imagine. Soluna
  2. 56 points
    Soluna

    2021 End-of-Season Message

    Everyone, We're about to conclude our 9th season as a site for the CFB simulation. It hasn't been entirely sunshine this season but yet we're still around. We're recovering, relearning, and we narrowed our scope to restoration in the last three months, yet I am still happy with what we have and our outlook towards next season. I'm thankful to those of you who stayed through the problems and hope that you want to stay longer - I have plenty planned for the years ahead and I hope you are interested enough to keep an eye on it. You guys that reached out to me the last few months have helped far more than you can imagine and you know who you are. Let's keep building and working together. I know I nag for activity. I know I complain in the shoutbox. I'm passionate for my creation but I don't want that getting in the way of your enjoyment here. If you think that I'm angry or overreacting you're probably right; we're all human, we all make mistakes. All of you guys are awesome - you all helped me build this and everyone should be equally proud. If you've contributed something to this site whether it be a google sheet, a media piece, or a discussion thread, then you are the reason I made this. This next season will be a special one and I'll be sure to constantly have special events going on; it's not often that you create something that makes it to a 10th anniversary (even if the anniversary is not entirely truthful to the years truly spent building this!). 2022 will be a celebration of you guys. Expect extra games (the anniversary tournament included), new updates, and more information than any previous year. Congratulations to whoever wins tonight and whoever locks up the 2021 NFL title in a week's time. Soluna
  3. 54 points
    ESPN

    [2017] Week #15 - FNF

    Army vs Navy Kent State at Akron Miami (OH) at Ohio Central Michigan at Western Michigan Northern Illinois at Ball State New Mexico at Wyoming Rice at #24 Houston Rutgers at Maryland As you guys are such a great community, in remembrance of today, I donated money to the National Fallen Firefighters Foundation in every active coaches name.
  4. 51 points
    The CFBHC Recruiting System "Where Everything's Made Up and the Points Don't Matter" UPDATED AS OF 10/07/2018 (v1.5f) OVERVIEW Recruiting is constantly being upgraded and it can be hard to keep up. The idea behind this is to keep it constantly updated as changes are made so everything can be located in a central place. This is just an outline of the rules, if you are looking for tips on strategy then check out ToucanSoda's Awesome Guides! Recruiting is done weekly where coaches use their allotted weekly points to put points on any recruits they want to try to get for their team. Recruiting is due each week at Saturday night on the interface and is then processed on Sunday. Recruiting will begin two weeks before the regular season and will go until Week 14 of the CFBHC regular season. JUCO recruiting will take place the final 2 weeks of recruiting as well. THE INTERFACE All recruiting is handled on the Recruiting tab of the Interface. Points, visits, and scholarships are all handled on this page. Additional players can be added at any time by going to the page for each position you are interested in and clicking Add. Each week when recruiting is updated, school logos will appear next to a recruit. These are the teams that have put points on that recruit. Teams with red borders mean they are within 5 points of one another. If a team’s logo is there but does not have a red border, it means they are within 5 to 30 points of the leader. If there is a plus sign, it means there are other teams that have put points on that recruit but are not within 30 points of the lead. On the Interface you'll also find national recruiting rankings, highly contested recruits, and hot singles in your area. POINTS The number of weekly points a coach has to spend is based on a number of factors: 1. Base weekly points: Determined by the coaches performance in the previous season: Additionally, winning or losing a bowl grants you additional weekly points depending on the prestige of the bowl. This is presented in the following format: (+2/+1), where the first value is the number of points earned for winning and the second is for losing. 2. Team Prestige: Determined by the overall performance of the school throughout their entire history on the site. This is converted to additional weekly points by School Prestige times 1.5 (Rounded Down), so a 5 star school adds 7 points, a 1 star school adds 1 point. (Found here) 3. Coach Prestige: Determined by the individual coach’s performance throughout their entire history on the site. This is converted to additional weekly points by the Coaching Prestige value rounded down, so a 2.5 star coach adds 2 points, etc. (Found here) 4. Conference Prestige: Each conference is given a prestige based on performance, media, and commissioner work. The values for the 2021 season are as follows: 5. Out of Conference Opponents: Based on the previous season, additional weekly points are given (or removed) based on the average wins of the OOC teams you played: 6. Draft Bonus: The team with the most players drafted into NFLHC with gain +2 weekly points, and the teams with the most players drafted of their conference will gain +1 weekly point. 7. Bowl Challenge Cup: Every team in the conference with the highest win percentage at the end of bowl season will gain +3 weekly points. Teams in the conference with the second highest will gain +1. If there's a tie for winner all tied conferences will receive +2 instead of +3. If there's a tie for second all those conferences will receive +1. 8. Coaching Talents: These will be covered later, but certain talents can add additional weekly points. IN-STATE / BORDER STATE RECRUITS Schools get bonuses for all recruits in the same state as the school. Once a coach puts at least 10 points onto an in-state recruit, they gain a free bonus of 15 points on that recruit. Additionally, the initial points put on an in-state recruit are doubled for free up to 15 points added. For example, putting an initial 15 points on an in-state recruit will net you 45 points total (15 of your points, another 15 for the doubled value, and 15 for the in-state bonus). However if you put 30 points on the same recruit instead of 15, you would get 60 points total (30 of your points, another 15 for the maximum doubled value, and 15 for in-state bonus). School also get bonuses for recruits in border states. The border states for each team are outlined below. Once a school puts at least 10 points onto a border state recruit, they gain a free bonus of 9 points on that recruit. SCHOLARSHIPS AND VISITS Each coach will also be given 21 scholarships, 10 school visits, and 5 coaches visits which provides a one-time boost of points on that player. Scholarships give an immediate boost of 20 points. The specific point value that each visit gives will be a number within a range of points which is determined by your team’s performance in the previous season. These values can be seen above in the same table with base weekly point values. Both kinds of visits can only be used after the start of Week 5 of recruiting, but scholarships can be given at the start of recruiting. If a player that you gave a scholarship to commits to another school, you are given a half-scholarship worth half the amount of a normal scholarship in return (10 points). Coach visit values are increased to 30 points if the team had the Heisman winner in the previous season or if the coach won coach of the year. TEAM NEEDS Each coach can select two positions as their "Team Needs". Any points spent on a recruit of one of the chosen position will receive an additional 10% of the points spent for free. For example, if a coach picks OLB as a Team Need and puts 10 points on an OLB recruit, that recruit will actually get 11 points. PIPELINE STATES Coaches can select either their home state or one of their border states to be a Pipeline State. If the coach chooses their home state as their Pipeline, they will receive a 20% point bonus on any points they put on recruits in their home state. If the coach chooses a border state to be their Pipeline, they also receive a 20% point bonus for any points spent on recruits in that state. States chosen as Pipeline states will be visible to all other coaches on the interface. HOST CAMPS Coaches can also select a state to place a Host Camp in. Coaches can only choose states that are home to schools in their conference. Coaches also are not allowed to choose their own home state for their Host Camp location. Independents are counted as their own conference for this. States with a Host Camp give a 12% points bonus on all points spent on recruits in that state. Host Camp locations are also visible to all other coaches on the interface. RECRUITING TALENTS Coaches can select coaching talents based on the following win tiers they fall in from the previous season’s results: 1-3 wins, 4-6 wins, 7-9 wins, 10-12 wins. Coaches can select one talent from each tier that applies to them. For example, a coach who won 12 games in the previous season can select one talent each from the tiers, giving them 4 new talents that help with recruiting. Additionally, many of the talents in each tier scale with the number of wins earned, making talents more powerful with more victories. Finally, each tier also has a Mastery Talent that can only be chosen if you have the maximum number of wins in each tier. So a coach can only select the Master Talent in the 4-6 win tier if they have 6 or more wins. The talents are as follows: Tier 1 Choices (1/2/3 wins): Strong Recruiter: +1/+2/+2 weekly recruiting points. School Spirit: +1/+2/+3 school visits. Well Traveled: +1/+2/+2 coaches visits. Mastery Talent - Diversified Recruiting: Gain +1 weekly recruiting points, +1 school visit, and +1 coaches visit. Tier 2 Choices (4/5/6 wins): Quality over Quantity: Your "Host Camp" state will allow a 19%/21%/23% bonus on recruits instead of 12%. (Host Camp states are in states where a team from the same conference is from and it cannot be the home state of the school.) Supreme Need: You receive 2/3/3 additional "team needs" slots. Expansive Camps: Add a border state of your choice from the table below for this season only. All recruits for that additional state will receive 12/14/16 points for free if at least 5 points are put on them. Choice for border states are as follows: Mastery Talent - International Recruiting: Allows access to a completely independent recruiting list of international recruits, competing only against other schools that took this talent. Points are shared between this list and normal recruiting but visits cannot be used. Tier 3 Choices (7/8/9 wins): Home State Fortress: Recruits now start automatically with 29/31/33 points for all in-state players (instead of 15). Must have at least 15 points on them before it triggers. Regional Power: Recruits now start automatically with 19/21/23 points for players in bordering states (instead of 12). Must have at least 10 points on them before it triggers as before. National Exposure: Ensure 1/2/2(+1 with a secondary preference) JuCo recruit prefers your program. Mastery Talent - Over the Top: Improves JuCo scholarships from +18 to +30 and JuCo visits from +16 to +30 and also receive an additional JuCo Scholarship. However, this comes at the cost of reducing your regular weekly recruiting points by -5. Tier 4 Choices (10/11/12 wins): Rising Star: Select two Star Players to receive 8/10/12 weekly points for free. Strong Academics: Scholarships provide an immediate boost of 27/29/31 (instead of 20). Legacy Locks: Claim two 1.0/4.0 players (or lower) from your state instantly/Claim a 1.0/4.5 and a 1.0/4.0 (or lower) from your state instantly/Claim a 2.0/4.5 and a 1.5/4.0 (or lower) from your state instantly. Mastery Tier - Undiscovered Talent: Create a recruit (there will be a thread - subject to name and school approval by Soluna) and receive him as part of your recruiting class instantly. Max skill/potential for each position: QB (2.5/4.5), RB (2.5/4.5), FB (1.0/5.0) WR (1.0/5.0), TE (1.0/5.0), OT (2.5/4.5), OG (1.0/5.0), C (1.0/5.0), DE (2.5/4.5), DT (1.0/5.0), ILB (1.0/5.0), OLB (1.0/5.0), CB (1.0/5.0), FS (1.0/5.0), SS (1.0/5.0), K (2.5/4.5), P (1.5/5.0), LS (1.5/5.0), KR (1.0/5.0), PR (1.0/5.0) G5 RECRUITING LIST In additional to recruiting from the overall national list of recruits, schools in G5 conferences (AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, Sun Belt, and Independents minus Notre Dame) will have access to a separate list of recruits that schools in P5 conferences will not have access to. Schools from the before listed schools will be able to put points into either the regular master list or the G5 master list as they please. The G5 Recruits list will work entirely the same as the other one. With the exception of the restriction for which school have access to this list it will function exactly the same as the other. Points/Visits/etc are shared between the two. COMMITTING So when do recruits actually commit to a school? In order for a player to commit there are three conditions. Only one needs to be met for a recruit to pick your team, but recruits only commit starting after the 4th week of recruiting: Coaches who are the only team listed on a recruit within 30 points for 3 consecutive weeks. They are the only logo shown for 3 weeks in a row. The team has a 50 point lead at any time, starting after week 4 of recruiting. This threshold decreases by 5 points after week 4 to a minimum of 20 points. The team with the lead cannot be caught up to by any other team with the amount of weeks left. Additionally, keep in mind that CFBHC teams are limited to 85 players on their roster. As a result, teams are currently allowed to recruit up to a maximum of 21 players per year. JUCO RECRUITS JUCO recruits are recruits that come in typically as juniors or seniors and have much higher skill ratings than average recruits out of high school. JUCO recruiting works much differently due to the higher skill and lower numbers of total JUCOs available to be recruited. JuCo recruiting will be a two week process and will begin towards the end of regular of recruiting. Regular recruiting scholarships, half scholarships, school and coaches visits will NOT be used. Instead coaches will be assigned the following based on the calculation described below. The formula only counts regular season games. JuCo Scholarships are worth +18 and JuCo visits are worth +16. All players may have a preferred school or family legacy towards a particular school. Recruits can have both a preferred school and a family legacy school and they don't have to be the same, however recruits with a preference from National Exposure will not have any other kind of preference on them. Additionally, there are multiple "tiers" of preference that automatically add the following points: Family Legacy: +35 points National Exposure Recruiting Talent: +25 points Primary: +25 points Secondary: +15 points Commit threshold in week 1 of JUCO recruiting is 10 or more between 1st and 2nd place. After week 2 it's just the highest, and ties will be broken using a weighted system. FIN Thanks for reading! If you have any other questions, comments, or things that I need to fix then comment away. Special thanks to Jieret for proof-reading this too! Good luck crootin!
  5. 50 points
    Soluna

    Happy 4th Birthday CFBHC

    Thank you to all who frequent and contribute to this site - it wouldn't be around without any of you. I'm happy we've made it 4 years. I'm glad I now signed up for this journey. Enjoy today and thank you for your contributions, everyone - sincerely. You guys will get a small "gift" later today. Soluna
  6. 50 points
    vida

    [2019] CFBHC Insider - July Issue

    As the month of July begins here on CFBHC it's time we took a look back on the month and a look forward to what July has in store. There are plenty of stories to be told between the players and their coaches, it's helpful to have someone on the inside to give you a look. I hope you enjoy the first of a continuous series, as I introduce CFBHC Insider Monthly. It's content may be short in the first issue, but the writers and I are certain as we continue this series will only become better and better as the months go by. We hope you enjoy. For optimal viewing please follow the link below. Afterwards view in full screen. *It is mobile friendly.* http://www.flipsnack.com/1aVida/cfbhc-insider-july-issue.html
  7. 47 points
    Soluna

    New Administrator Announcement

    All, I'd like to welcome @Jieret to the administrative staff. I've been working with some guidance from @Jumbo on how to lessen my workload while simultaneously improving the site and continuing with forward development of features that you guys have requested. Jieret will be in charge of everything relating to Transfers in CFBHC. Development of how transfers will work and will be improved will be nearly at his discretion moving forward (other than some initial guidance I will give him). He will be in charge of every facet of it. My goal is to create a Transfer Portal (so hot right now) that shows you who is likely to transfer, what their goals in transferring are, and to provide a more engaging way of dealing with transfers (and one that's far less random). With Jieret's addition I would also like to firm up the administrative contingent as more will be added in the future. As I work on delegating more stuff out I will appoint users to fill specific niches in this cabinet. As a reminder the others are: @alienufo - NFLHC Administrator @inspiral - Interface/Recruiting Administrator @Jumbo - Community Outreach Administrator @Jieret - CFBHC Transfers Administrator Also special shoutout to @Rome. While not technically an administrator, his work with the coaching skills and scheduling the past few years has been superb and helped significantly. He's basically Assistant to the Administrator. Soluna
  8. 45 points
    Soluna

    [CFBHC] Coaching Feats

    Coaching Feats are a secondary portion of your coaching skills that allow you to active what is essentially a special ability at various times throughout the season (if it occurs during a game it is automated). Every four full years of accredited coaching you've had allows you to select one additional feat up to a maximum of five. If you get to five you will have to replace one or choose not to take any more. Coaching feats will be displayed on your sidebar coaching profile. Coaching Feat Database (more to come - stay tuned) ______'s Rival: Certain schools increase your motivation and you impart that feeling onto your players. Effect: Select another school. Each game played against that school your players receive a 10% skill boost for the duration of any game against them. Conditions: You can select this feat multiple times and must declare a school each time you select it. Cannot change the school until a new version of this feat is taken but then can replace the old one if you wanted to remove it. Focused Discipline: Flavor: Structure and the right mentality underlie the ethos of a winning team and you're primary make is the establishment of this culture. Effect: Gain +3 to discipline as long as you have this feat. Conditions: Discipline cannot increase beyond 20. Local Connections Flavor: You have a good level of influence with your local high school and the graduating players dream of signing on with you. Effect: Prior to the first week of recruiting you gain a choice of two random players from one of your local high schools that isn't listed on the recruiting board. The other player not selected is then added to the board. Minimum potential for the randomly generated players is 3.5. No upper limit but percentage chance of generation is the same as regular recruits. Conditions: None. Miracle Adjustments: Flavor: You are adept at analyzing your opponents and your quick mind has the ability to rectify a horrendous first half. Effect: When down by two or more touchdowns at the half all of your players get a 10% boost in skill for the remainder of the game. Own the Youth, Gain the Future: Flavor: From the beginning you realized how powerful tutoring the youngest was and you pride yourself on shared experience. Effect: Gain +3 to youth management as long as you have this feat. Conditions: Youth management cannot increase beyond 20. Seeing Red Flavor: You have a good background understanding of refereeing and have the wit to make quick decisions when necessary. Effect: Challenge flags thrown by you are 100% more likely to result in a successful challenge. (I will likely begin listing how often you have challenged and how often you've been successful) Strength in Growth: Flavor: Players can become so much more than what we witness in high school. You know how to build up the ones that have shown flashes and they trust you for it. Effect: Each year, prior to progressions, you may select one player to get to increase their potential skill 0.5 points permanently. Conditions: Any player can only ever be selected once in his career for this feat. Teacher of the Game: Flavor: You have an exceptional understanding of the fundamentals and are skilled in passing it on to those you spend the most time with. Effect: Each year, prior to progressions, you may select three players to get a guaranteed 1.5 skill progression. Conditions: Does not affect potential skill, skill cannot increase beyond the potential skill. Time is not wasted...: Flavor: Your eyes are locked on the clock and your mind established in the moment. You are a master manipulator of the game. Effect: Gain +3 to clock management as long as you have this feat. Conditions: Clock management cannot increase beyond 20. Unexpected Flexibility Flavor: You've spent your years of coaching honing your ability to adapt on the fly and have the ability to instill new schemes to your players on even the shortest of timescales. Effect: Your scheme change penalty is reduces by 50%. Conditions: Cannot stack with any other scheme change penalty reductions. If this is active 50% is the lowest you can go. Weathering the Storm: Flavor: Rain, Snow, Sleet; none of them have ever bothered you. Your players observe your persistence through all manner of weather and the team is stronger for it. Effect: Your players suffer a 50% reduced penalty for each type of weather compared to the default value for that weather.
  9. 45 points
    Soluna

    Admin Newsletter: September, 2018

    Soluna's Admin Newsletter No. 2 | September 2018 I was mostly successful in my predictions from the last newsletter. I was delayed on development and progressions by two weeks of IRL work that sent me to Savannah so I apologize for the delays that has caused. I successfully completed the migration of front offices to the Clubs feature. Upcoming Events NFLHC draft completes. NFLHC Rookie Minicamps, Training Camp, and Pre-Season. CFBHC progressions complete. CFBHC Spring Camps (new feature) will be announced officially and will likely take place (depends on NFL scheduling a little). What am I doing There's a big Owner Update coming out that I've been working on for the last few weeks. More will be announced in the coming days but the update will essentially give Owners a way to "make money" and shoot for the Hall of Fame in this new, unique, way. The goal will be to provide Owners with a true goal and to make team money feels like it means more than it currently does. Additionally this will tie in with marketing, stadium expansion and construction, and fan attendance. I really want to work in Marketing stuff but I'm not sure how to do it so that's holding me up a bit. What can you expect in the near future? Progression of your team (if it has not occured). NFLHC Offseason wraps up NFLHC Pre-Season CFBHC Spring Camp events Soluna
  10. 45 points
    Soluna

    Recruiting v2.1

    Recruiting v2.1 --------------------------------------------------- General Changes *Commitment threshold will reduce from 50 by 5 a week after Week 4 down to a minimum of 20. *Players who have only 1 school listed within 30 points for 3 consecutive weeks will commit to that school. *The school(s) with the most drafted players will receive +2 weekly recruiting points. If tied each tied school receives the bonus. (This year: Alabama Crimson Tide and Nebraska Cornhuskers) *The school(s) with the most drafted players from each conference (excluding any schools from the previous award, i.e. Alabama, Nebraska) will receive +1 weekly recruiting points. If more than three teams are tied, the conference is excluded from receiving this bonus. (This year: UGA/Miss State(SEC), Michigan (Big 10), TCU/Iowa State (Big 12), Southern Miss (CUSA), Arizona State (Pac 12), Air Force/Colorado State/Boise State (MWC), ND (Indy), Akron/Buffalo/EMU (MAC), No AAC Team (AAC)) <--- Someone check these they were done by a tired llamas and Darman. In-State/Bordering State Changes *In-state (and bordering state) bonuses do not occur until at least 5 points have been committed from an in-state school. At this point the player will receive the value that was given freely in the previous recruiting version. *Initial points committed to an in-state recruit are doubled for free up to 20 points. (i.e. You put 20 points on someone from your state that you had not previously put points on it will count as 40. You put 50 points on someone from your state that you had not previously put points on it will count as 70 (50+20 cap).) If these are the initial points then he will still receive the in-state bonus points. Expanded/Changed Options *Added "Star Recruit" - select one player who will receive an automatic amount of points per week based on the information below. Must be used in the first week and is independent of state location restrictions. National Champion and Runner-Up (15 points per week), 12-0 and Playoff Teams (13), Bowl Winners (12), Bowl Losers (11), Remaining Teams (9), 0-12 (7) *Added "Team Needs" designation - select two positions on your team page, any points spent on players of this position gain an additional 10% for free. (You label OG and ILB as team needs and you spend 10 points on an ILB, the player will in fact receive 11 points) *Pipeline States will now receive a 20% bonus on a foreign state and a 25% bonus if it is the home state. Pipeline states must now BORDER the state of their school or be their home state. Pipeline states remain public and must be declared before Week 1. *Added "Host Camps" - Each school can declare one state where they receive a 15% bonus on points spent. THIS STATE MUST BE A STATE WHERE A TEAM FROM THEIR CONFERENCE IS FROM AND IT CANNOT BE THEIR HOME STATE. Host Camp state must be set prior to recruiting start and can be changed during the offseason. Hosted camps will be public, to be displayed on your interface team profile. Interface/Visibility Changes *School Visits, Coach Visits, Star Recruits, and Host Camp by schools are now visible for everyone. *If a recruit has less than or equal to five points between the leader and any other schools the recruit will be marked as "Toss Up" (Note to Inspiral: Single out Toss-Up recruits to be easily visible on their own page and likely marked read or be larger or something similar)(everyone: suggest better name). *Schools within five points are displayed as toss-up (see above). Schools between 5-30 points behind are shown with their normal logo. Schools that have put any points on a player but are not listed in the previous information will be listed by hovering over the + dropdown that existed before (or some other way inspiral figures out to make it visible). NOTE: All changes are dependent on whether inspiral is able to add these.
  11. 45 points
    Soluna

    Happy Birthday CFBHC!

    You guys may have noticed that some stuff has changed. We'll be under construction for a little while but hopefully overall it will be a better and more manageable experience. Among the things you can expect: A selection of backgrounds and themes based on conferences/champions. The text editor has been improved. Better and more functional shoutbox. Better and easier moderation options. Far far far more customizable on my end letting me improve your experience much easier. Three years is a long time for an online community to last. I hope you guys enjoy it. Soluna
  12. 44 points
    Soluna

    Admin Newsletter: August, 2018

    Soluna's Admin Newsletter No. 1 | August 2018 Based on some discussion I had with Jumbo I figure to post a monthly newsletter like this to discuss what I'm currently working on, what the site is facing in the next month, and what I'm hopeful of adding in the coming weeks (if anything at all). It'll just be a quick run-down of stuff you guys can expect to possibly hear about or see. Upcoming Events NFLHC off-season continuation and all aspects that come with that. The draft will take place at some point in August and training camp will likely follow within a week or two after the draft takes place. CFBHC in August will be dedicated entirely to progressions and give inspiral a chance to update the interface with the new recruiting regulations. CFBHC can't begin until NFLHC Week #1 proper so it gives me some time to do some progressions under less rushed conditions. What am I doing My main target right now is to make a variety of things on the forum less dependent on me to make it happen. The biggest change coming will be that all NFLHC front offices, CFBHC conferences, and certain "societies" like the Hall of Fame, storm's weekly "tv" discussion thread stuff, and such will be moved to use the Clubs feature. Owners of the NFL teams, Commissioners of the conferences, and leaders of the societies will be able to allow access to members themselves without needing my input and teams will have way more freedom in using their personal forum. In addition this makes it significantly easier for me to find and update things like re-signings threads or UDFA threads. I've attached an image of what the clubs will essentially look like. They will all use the same layout (at least initially). I'm working on some small recruiting changes (mostly numbers under the hood) that will be a part of the 2022 recruiting cycle but will be out in the next few weeks, What can you expect in the near future? Migration of your NFL team/ CFB conference/etc to a Club page. Progression of your team (if it has not occured). The NFLHC Draft (it will be live and you are welcome to take part in any way you see fit, watching, chatting, drafting, whatever!) Free Agency (NFL) Soluna
  13. 43 points
    Soluna

    [2021] Training Camp Results

    Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins New England Patriots New York Jets Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs Los Angeles Chargers Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints Chicago Bears Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers
  14. 43 points
    Head Coach Trey Chaffin steps to the microphone: "It pains me greatly to say this, but after a great run at Georgia Tech, I will be stepping down as head coach. I know it isn't an ideal time, but it is time for me. I am open to any questions." Stepping out of character, I want to say a few things. I know a lot of y'all probably thought I was already gone or whatever. I never thought this day would come. Never. This site meant so much to me for so long. Some days it felt like I was online all 24 hours. Anytime I was at home I was on, as soon as I got on the bus to go across campus I'd be on on my phone, I'd be on in class, it just meant everything to me. Soluna, I know I could rub you the wrong way, and I know I truly pissed you off sometimes, but I want to thank you. This site is incredible. It really is. To everyone I've gotten to know over the years here, whether we got along or not, I am thankful for all of you. The hours spent in the shoutbox no matter the topic no matter how vicious the arguments were always fun. I am ready to step down immediately if that is what is best and there is a coach in the waiting, but I am also willing to continue as long as y'all need me too. As soon as I write this post I'm gonna go do recruiting for the upcoming week. Also, I will not be stepping down from my role within the Bengals organization. I am far more active there than I am in cfbhc. I am truly sorry for how inactive I have been for quite a while, I know it hurts the sim as a whole and especially my team and my conference. I want everyone to know I tried, I really did. I fully expected to be back up to my past activity levels in 2017, but a lot has happened in my personal life and things that I used to enjoy just don't hold my attention anymore. After graduating in december I expected to be more active, however a lot has happened since then. I won't go into any excuses, but this year, especially since March, has been really tough. Sorry this post is kinda rambly, it's late and I do feel bad about this. In hindsight I should have done this a long time ago, but every time I thought about doing it, I would convince myself I could become more active. And I would try, I really did, I would log on a few days in a row check stuff out make my gameplan, and then it would slip again. I know there is someone out there that can take care of my beloved team and players better than me. Its been fun guys, I won't just disappear, I'll still have the Bengals to be disappointed by, uh I mean to be excited about.
  15. 43 points
    Soluna

    Happy Thanksgiving

    I'm thankful for all of you! ...except all you bastards who complain so much...
  16. 41 points
    Soluna

    Site Fully Resumes April 12th

    All games regular. Welcome back if you're still around. Spread the message so people have ample time to plan. Soluna
  17. 41 points
    SMALL WONDER: The Story of CFBHC's First Great Upset 1. 2014, the second season in the life of CFBHC, did not start pleasantly for Head Coach DangerZoneh and the TCU Horned Frogs. A 35-7 blowout loss at Ole Miss to open the season, followed by a 42-14 drubbing at the hands of the 20th ranked Tennessee Volunteers left Coach Danger scrambling for answers. A week 3 Thursday night win over the Duke Blue Devils did little to remove the specter of the 2-11 opening season record of the Frogs, but did give the faithful a small dose of hope as fullback Alex Engram rumbled for 111 yards and 3 touchdowns in Durham. That tiny ray of sunshine was quickly blotted out, as TCU lost its next five games. Missouri won 31-14 in Waco behind three touchdowns from quarterback Gerald Bright, while TCU managed just 205 yards of offense. Nebraksa blitzed the Horned Frogs 31-21 on a neutral field in Kansas City, with TCU quarterback Johnny Green providing the lone Horned Frog highlight with a dazzling 34 yard TD run. Green and Engram did their best, but couldn’t compete with Christopher Brooks and All-Big-12 running back James Otero, who led Kansas to a week 6 shootout win over the Frogs, 35-31. In Stillwater, OK, TCU walked into a defensive buzzsaw in the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Horned Frogs turned the ball over twice and could get no offense rolling as the Cowboys slammed the door 24-0. The week 8 loss to the mighty Oklahoma Sooners had an outcome that diminished even the 42-21 final score. Defensive captain Ray Lee Coia was lost for the season after taking a blind hit on an interception return by Sooner Tai Miller. Both players suffered broken arms, and TCU was suddenly staring at a 1-7 record, and entering a contest with the #4 team in the land, the defending Big-12 champion, the hated Texas Longhorns, WITHOUT their best player and inspirational team leader Coia. 100 miles to the southwest, the flagship program in the state of Texas was flexing muscles first stretched in a dominant 2013 campaign that saw the might Texas Longhorns win the Big 12 with an 8-0 record en route to a 11-3 Cotton Bowl winning-season. 2014 was to be the year Texas would challenge for the national title, beginning the season ranked #2 and opening with 7 straight wins before a mid-season bye in week 8. Wins over Arkansas, Pittsburgh, and Navy, all in Austin, showed that the Longhorns could handle three very different types of offenses with their thoroughly stout defense. Travelling to West Point turned into a walk over Army. The visiting Minnesota Golden Gophers, with All-American OJ Carano, gave Texas a scare in Darrell Royal Memorial Stadium in a narrow 21-17 win for the Longhorns. Iowa State provided little resistance in Ames, rolling over for 28-3. With the bye week looming, Texas snuck past a game Kansas State squad with kicker Gino Chiaverini providing the bulk of the scoring in a 16-14 win in Austin. The Longhorns, and Coach DollaBill, were certainly looking forward to the Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma following the bye and an easy date with the 1-7 TCU Horned Frogs. The clouds were beginning to part for the Longhorns, the path to the Playoff clear and present. 2. When CFBHC began in 2013, most teams were at the mercy of their sim-generated rosters, which were, to some extent, based on the school’s all-time “prestige.” Usual college bluebloods like Alabama, USC, Michigan, and Texas were generated with rosters that helped their coaches overwhelm teams with less traditionally-powerful rosters. In the case of the Longhorns, and first coach DollaBill, that initial roster led to an 8-0 Big-12 campaign, finishing 11-3 in 2013. TCU found themselves severely short on generated talent, and that was compounded by rotating through three coaches in 2013—Coach HookEm, clearly a puppet coach installed by a bitter booster from Austin, departed following a 1-4 start. Coach Pepper was hired, only to lose two games before receiving his pink slip. Stability finally arrived in the form of Head Coach DangerZoneh. The Horned Frogs finished a devastating opening slate at 2-11, with Coach Danger managing a closing 1-5 record playing in a modified Big 12 Conference with Houston, Rice, UCF, and Boise State. Just how deficient was the TCU initial roster? Saying that TCU was severely overmatched talent-wise in this game would be a major understatement. The TCU team only had 4 players total that had a potential rating of 4 and only one of those players had a potential rating of 4.5. From a skill perspective only one of those players had reached 4.0 and that was fullback turned running back Alex Engram. To put in perspective how vastly different the talent level between the two teams was TCU’s average skill-level on offense was a measly 2.36 and an even lower 2.09 on defense. That brought TCU’s average starting player to a skill level of 2.22 which is comparable to a C-USA team. Texas on the other hand was chock full of talent. If you examined the depth-chart for the 2014 Longhorns you would find that they only had one starter below a 3.0 skill rating and that was a redshirt freshman right-guard who had a potential rating of 4.5. The only TCU player who would have a chance to start on this Texas team was fullback Alex Engram and that would have been a toss-up since he shared the same rating as his Texas Counterpart. The Longhorns had twice as many (8) 5.0 Potential players as the TCU team had 4.0 and 4.5 potential players. Texas oozed talent at every position and realistically TCU was outmatched at every position. They play the games for a reason, however; and what those ratings don’t measure is the amount of heart and pride that TCU had during that game. 3. It was a picture-perfect day for football in Fort Worth, Texas on that November Saturday evening. The attitudes on the field couldn’t be more different as the Texas Longhorns were calm, cool, and confident heading into their matchup with the 1-7 TCU Horned Frogs. Texas saw this game as a formality on their way to Dallas for famed Red River Rivalry with Oklahoma. The Longhorns had been brilliant all season and their confidence was apparent as the teams took the field. Sterling Brown, Running Back: “We had it rolling, man. We had a little scare against Kansas State and Minnesota, but this year was our destiny. We had the defense, we had the offense, we had the kicker. They were a speed bump to roll over on our way to Dallas for the Oklahoma game.” John Jones, Quarterback: “Our offense had been clicking pretty well against some really good defenses. I could hand the ball off and watch Sterling do his thing. Our offensive line was opening up holes all over the place. Yeah, we gonna kill TCU...they were so small! And when they lost Coia, he was the only one that could have provided a challenge.” Boomer Roberts, Defensive End: “They had this great big back, Engram, who was a fullback playing running back. Dude couldn’t run, it was that simple. Shut down the running game, from him and the quarterback, and TCU is done. Our D-line was ready and out-weighed their O-line by something like 100 lbs. That’s four guys versus five.” Gordon Moreland, Cornerback: “I don’t think we really considered their passing game much of a threat at all. They had maybe broken 200 yards once in the previous 8 games, so we were mostly concerned with coming up to help stop Engram the giant.” TCU on the other hand entered the game without their defensive captain Ray Lee Coia and his loss weighed heavily on the team during warmups. From the pressbox it almost seemed like the Longhorns were about to take on a high-school team, but a sense of looseness started to come over the team. This was a school that was given no chance by anyone, the media predicted a blowout, the Longhorns didn’t respect TCU, and it started to sink in that they literally had nothing to lose. Vagas Strong, Inside Linebacker: “We were down. Most of us weren’t even sure it was worth practicing that hard. I mean, we were on our third coach in less than 20 games, we had barely won anything. I came to TCU to get a science degree, but since I had played a little football in high school, Coach said to try out for the team and here I am starting...against Texas...as a senior walk-on. You get a bit star-struck.” Johnny Green, Quarterback: “We just didn’t have anything to lose, that was our mindset. But at the same time, we didn’t have any expectation about winning, not against those guys. I know I can play a little, but we were overmatched. Watching film just put that in our minds.” Andre Gaffney, Defensive End: “When Ray Lee broke his arm, we were hopeful he could play a little with the arm in a cast. Looked like he was gonna play even on Wednesday, but then the docs and coaches said he was out. So that meant Kory Sapp had to step into his place. So we got a freshman stepping into the shoes of a senior, our leader. Yeah, that’s not gonna be good.” Head Coach DangerZoneh, TCU: "I'm not sure there was a feeling of doom going into the game, honestly. We were 1-7 but had actually played a lot of teams close. We felt that the we had faced the best defense we were going to see all year in Ole Miss and the best offenses with Kansas and OU. Our boys believed we could win, That being said, I'd be lying to you if I said I thought we'd win - or even really be that close." The Longhorns elected to receive the opening kickoff and sophomore WR Jacky Walters would take the kick out to the 25. John Jones would lead the Texas offense out on the field, but they wouldn’t stay very long when 2 short Sterling Brown runs and an incomplete pass on 3rd down would lead to a Ken Phillips punt. Johnny Green would lead the Frogs out on the field, and like the Longhorn offense, they would have little success leading to another 3 and out. Lightning would strike as Sterling Brown would take the ball right off the left tackle Brandon Reamon for a 43 yard scamper and Texas score giving them a 7-0 lead. The TCU offense would come back on the field and after 3 more plays they would give the ball back to Jones and company. The field position game would work out well for the Longhorns as Jones would complete passes to Walters and Billy Williams to get into field goal range where Gino Chiaverini would knock in a 40 yarder to make the lead 10-0. Another TCU drive ended poorly as QB Johnny Green would stare down his receiver and give Texas CB Gordon Moreland the perfect chance to pick it off. John Jones would get the opportunity to lead another Texas drive that ended with a Jacky Walters TD on a short 11 yard crossing route to extend the lead to 17 as the 1st quarter ended. John Jones, Texas QB: “We got on the field and things just felt...slow. Like we couldn’t get going. Punt for a series, get the ball back, and then Sterling rips off this awesome run around right end for the opening score. We’re thinking: “Ok, now we’re moving, no worries.” Brandon Reamon, Texas Left Tackle: “Two good early drives, 10 points. Gordon gets the pick to put us at their 30 with 1:00 to go in the quarter. After Jones hits Jacky on that crossing pattern, it’s 17-0 at the end of the first and we’re already thinking about what kind of post-game dinner we’re gonna have.” Johnny Green, TCU QB: “Well that was a stupid throw, the interception. I totally rushed the out route and threw it before the receiver was really even ready. That guy made a nice jump on the ball and grabbed it. Wouldn’t have been a problem if it were on the other end of the field, but giving it back to them on our side hurt.” Feeling the game starting to slip away from them the Frogs would receive the ball to start the 2nd quarter and reach deep into their bag of tricks. , Johnny Green would lead a methodical drive that included a healthy dose of Alex Engram, along the way Green would complete passes to tight end Tony DeMarco and WR Patrick Womack and suddenly the anemic Frog offense was driving down the field. Once the Horned Frogs reached the red zone that’s when coach DangerZoneh decided to pull a little trickeration. Here’s what it sounded like on the Frogs Radio Network “Johnny Green steps under center for 1st and 10 on the Texas 18 yard line. The ball is snapped, Johnson is coming around behind the quarterback it looks to be a wide receiver sweep, wait… he’s dropping back to throw.. DeMarco’s open in the end-zone and it’s caught!!! Touchdown Frogs!!!!!!” The play would bring excitement to the crowd and get cut the Texas lead to 17-7. Butch Johnson, TCU WR: “When Coach called the double-pass, it was the 2nd time that season that it had been called, but the first for me at the X. I was pumped. Tony got a little separation from their linebacker and I hit him with a perfect spiral. I didn’t have a big day catching the ball, so I was just excited to help out in some way.” Dan Bruce, TCU DE: “That got the whole sideline fired up. We were down, but that was a great drive and a great play. We got a little pep in our step.” Texas would not be fazed initially as they were set to receive the kick. Coach DollaBill wanted to get back to his bread and butter and pound the undersized TCU defense. However, the stadium would fall silent, as on a routine sweep, Sterling Brown would be taken down by redshirt Freshman Kory Sapp and he would stay down. The team doctor would diagnose him with a knee injury and he would be forced to miss the remainder of the game. Texas would balance the attack out and grab two more field goals before the half to take a 23-7 lead into the locker room. Gino Chiaverini, Texas K: “The long one was tricky because the wind picked up right as I kicked it, I didn’t think it was gonna go. Hitting at the end of the half was easier...the offense did good just getting me in the middle of the field, and 40 yards is pretty simple with no wind. Sucks to lose Sterling, though.” John Jones: “We knew we had to answer that trick play, and we did, pretty quickly. Just stalled out on 3rd down. We wanted to go in with 30 at half...that would have put it away. But when Sterling went down, we lost a juice in our run game, kind of made it easier for them to load up on the pass.” Brent Ring, TCU ILB: “We were able to hold them to Field goals, which helped. The trick play gave us a bit of momentum and our D played pretty well toward the end of the half. I didn’t really see what happened with We were going in without the lead, but we felt like maybe, if we executed a little better, we could get back into the game.” Halftime...where coaches make their money as motivators and master strategists... Alex Engram, TCU RB: “Coach kept telling the Defense that they were in control. He just kept repeating that: you’re in control...you own this game...you’re in control. Those of us on the offensive side, well we started to get that mindset where we jumped on the defense’s momentum.” Andre Gaffney: “We had a little success at the end of the half, and Coach made a fantastic decision to move us to a 3-5 front to better help with the short passing game. He said we were gonna put 11 guys in coverage at one time...we were like: “Coach, don’t do that!” He really meant just changing up coverages giving the QB as many looks as we could.” Coach DangerZoneh: ““I gathered them in and looked at them and said ‘Are they special? Are they better than anyone we’ve played so far? We’ve faced better teams than this. We can beat these guys. Trust me. Play our game and we’ll win.’ And that’s all I said. After that I stopped game planning. They didn’t need me to yell at them, they knew what they needed to do. Ray, on the other hand, got emotional. He got in the defense's face and was the leader he had been all season, even in a sling. Afterwards, I could see the fire in their eyes. I knew something special would happen." Jacky Walters, TEX WR: “We knew we were gonna throw the ball a little more with Sterling out. I was hoping for a big day. Their DBs were shaky in the first quarter, but you could tell, they just meant to hurt you after the second quarter. They were trying to kill us.” Willard Arnold, TEX ILB: “Having a little cushion of 23-7 felt great. We’d given up maybe 100 yards is all in the first half, some on penalties, and then the big trick play. We definitely thought we still had the physical advantage, so we were confident at halftime. Coach didn’t really give us any new looks or anything…” As the teams came out of the locker room for the second half, there was a noticeable difference in the swagger of the TCU Horned Frogs. The team was amped up, they were confident, and they believed they could pull the upset. The Frogs would return the kick to the 27 yard line and Johnny Green would go to work in the spread offense, which coach adjusted to during the half. Green ran the read-option to perfection, switching between hand-offs to Engram, QB keepers, and quick passes to Johnson and DeMarco. Green would lead the Horned Frogs all the way to the Texas 38 yard line, where they would call a Power-O off the RT for Alex Engram. “Engram takes the hand-off from Green and navigates behind the RT, he breaks through the line and is into the second-layer of the defense. Arnold gets around his block.. Engram bowled him over! There goes Alex Engram.. He could take it all the way home Touchdown!!!!! What a run folks by Alex Engram, he absolutely runs through Willard Arnold.. The extra point is good bringing us closer and a 23-14 game. Willard Arnold: “I’ve never been hit like that on a run EVER. Engram straight ran over me. I was backpedaling a little after getting around the block, but that guy trucked me good.” Boomer Roberts: “I’ve never seen Willard get hit like that. The part that was unfair was that Engram turned on the jets after running over our leading tackler. He was a fullback playing running back...what?” Butch Johnson: “I didn’t think Engram could run that fast, especially after knocking that dude flat on his ass. He took off!” Texas would take the kick looking to styme the Horned Frogs sudden momentum. Jones and the Longhorns would start the drive at the 26 yard line, but there was noticeable difference in the way they were playing. Jones would complete a nice pass over the middle to Walters to grab a first down, and Billy Williams would catch another pass to give the Longhorns a second first down, but the TCU defense dug in and forced a punt which landed at the TCU 8 yard-line. Johnny Green would pair with Alex Engram to lead another methodical TCU drive getting first down after first down with smart reads on their read-option plays and smart passes thrown in when the Longhorns would stack the box. The Frogs, who had taken up nearly 7 minutes of game clock, would drive all the way to the Texas 19 yard line. “The Frogs are in the redzone, 1st and 10 from the Texas 19. Green is under center, DeMarco comes in motion, the ball is hiked and it’s a handoff the Engr.., no wait it's a QB keeper! Green goes off right tackle slips through the arms of Arnold, and there he goes folks!!! Touchdown Frogs!!” The extra point was good bringing TCU within 2 23-21. John Jones: “We wanted to answer their touchdown run with a sustained drive, if not a score. We made two first downs, but then had to punt. Our O-line just didn’t have a lot of fire at this point, with a 9 point lead.” Johnny Green: “They pinned us at the 8 yard line, so we had 92 yards to go to this thing to a field goal. The big guys up front just started going to work, and Coach was calling some nice variations on our standard option set. Alex and I were finding some holes with a stretched out front 7.” Butch Johnson: “Johnny had some clutch throws on that drive, but he really did it with his legs. That drive ate up, what, like 7 minutes of game time?! Keep their offense on the side, let our boys go to work. That TD run from Johnny was a thing of beauty.” Gordon Moreland: “I spent that whole drive on a island, so I just got a front row seat for the butt-whipping our D-Line was getting...from these scrubs! We’d seen their QB do some nice things on film, but that run was slick.” Willard Arnold: “I should have had him wrapped up for a 2 yard gain, but he slipped out. I got freaking beat for two scores in the 3rd quarter. Not a good one for me. Our defense walked off the field sweating and hands-on-hips breathing hard.” Texas would get the ball back and go to work. Jones would lead a methodical drive down the field, and in a rush to get one more play off before the quarter ended they would call a Draw with backup running back Hugh Ledbetter. Ledbetter would get smashed however and the ball would pop loose allowing Vagas Strong to recover for the Horned Frogs. Vagas Strong: “After Johnny’s touchdown, we were fired up. Brent hit their backup tailback and popped the ball loose, right at the end of the quarter. I looked up, and saw the ball, and jumped on it!” TCU would not capitalize on the turnover, however; and would be forced to punt after a quick 3 and out. The Longhorns would come back on the field in good position, and drive down the field to set up another 40 yard field goal. The field goal attempt would go right through the uprights giving Texas a 26-21 lead. Coach DollaBill sensing it was time to put the game away went into his bag of tricks and pulled out the onside kick. TCU wasn't ready for the call and the Longhorns were able to recover the kick, giving them a chance to extend the lead and put the game out of reach. Vagas Strong: “They hit a field goal, no problem. We hadn’t given them anything since the first quarter. We called that a win. Then they try this bullshit onside-kick…” Andre Gaffney: “I’m on kick return team, and we were not ready for that. Nice for them to have a little momentum to pick that up, but we’re all like “why did they do that?” Good if it works, and it did...but it didn’t matter.” Texas had great field position and a chance to put the game away. The drive started with a short Ledbetter run, but on 2nd down Jones would take his chance. “Jones takes the snap and rolls out to the right, he sees the tight end crossing the other way and fires, but there's Kory Sapp!! Sapp picks the ball off! Sapp picks the ball off! The freshman replacing senior leader Ray Lee Coia has made the biggest play of the game!” Kory Sapp, TCU OLB: “Jones was rolling out and he looked back across the field to the tight end. I was coming across the middle from behind the play, so I saw everything. Must have just missed me in his view. Easiest INT I’ve ever had.” Johnny Green would lead the TCU offense out on the field with a chance at taking the lead. The drive didn't start as planned when he was sacked on first down. Second down Green was able to find a crossing Butch Johnson to get the ball deep into Texas territory. The pass was followed by a quick Alex Engram run to get the ball to the Texas nine yard line. “Green under center, two receivers split out wide, he takes the snap and rolls out right. Womack breaks down the middle, he's got a step, Green fires the pass. Touchdown!!! Lord, he caught the ball Touchdown Horned Frogs!!!! The extra point is good, folks we have the lead, the Horned Frogs are beating the number four team in the nation 28-26. Andre Gaffney: “We told the offense to go down and get the lead...we’d done our job.” Alex Engram: “The D played out of their minds all game...we had to do our part. We thought that Coach’s adjustments--making the game about tough vs. tired--really opened things up for us in the 2nd half. We just mimicked the 3rd quarter drives...they were done.” Boomer Roberts: “I thought the sack was going to end their drive, but that QB made some plays with his feet and kept their drive going. And the receiver made a hell of catch on the touchdown.” Gordon Moreland: “Heck of a catch...that’s not my guy, but I got caught in a motion-switch and he just beat me to the spot. Nice catch.” Vagas Strong: “Holy shit, we were leading Texas! The crowd was crazy, some lady ripped her shirt off right behind our bench. We were all fired up!” Texas would take the kickoff and promptly go three and out and punt the ball to TCU. The Frogs would gain 9 yards, but were unable to convert forcing a punt which Walters returned to the Texas 28. John Jones would be sacked on first down making it 2nd and 18. The Longhorns suddenly playing very tightly would gain 3 yards on a busted Walters screen making it 3rd and 15. Promptly the Longhorns would be called for holding making it 3rd and 25 from their own 3 yard line. “It's 3rd and 25 from the 3 for Texas and Jones takes the snap, he hands the ball off the Ledbetter, Andre Gaffney breaks through and tackles him behind the line, folks did he get him in the end zone?! They're calling it a safety!!! Gaffney with the safety and TCU takes a 30-26 lead, the crowd is going crazy!!!” Kory Sapp: “The play before, their Left Tackle got up a little slow. I thought for sure they’d pass the ball on 3rd and 25 from their own 3. Nope, handoff to the backup. Andre was right there.” Brandon Reamon: “I twisted my ankle after getting rolled up the play before. I just didn’t have good footing for a run, and he made a great play. I’m sorry it wrecked our season, but it was about the only time he got me all game.” TCU took the safety and promptly went three and out, the killer being a Butch Johnson drop on what would have been a first down. Johnny Green: “We were too hyped for the next possession...we dropped an easy pass, their D-line got some penetration. Had to kick, put it back on the D, baby.” Texas would go to work and John Jones was locked in finding Walters on a crossing route, and Williams on a deep fade that would put the Longhorns in the redzone. “Jones is under center, he motions Walters out wide, and takes the snap. Walters breaks wide out towards the back off the end-zone, Jones lofts it up there, bit there's Curtis Howard!!! That's the ballgame folks, Curtis Howard intercepts the ball and the TCU Horned Frogs have just upset the number four team in the nation!!!!!!!” John Jones: “Getting the ball back was probably a bit luckier than we deserved. But we made the most. Hit a couple of crossing routes and one deep out. Put us in good position, just inside the red zone. I made the wrong read, that’s all. Should have checked down.” Andre Gaffney: “Curtis locked that guy up good. A true freshman making that play, easily the biggest in his life. Awesome!” Curtis Howard, TCU CB: “I didn’t really get my head turned, but since we were in the endzone, I figured it had to be a fade, and it just came down so slow. It was just sitting there.” After the game, players and coaches from both sides found themselves at a loss for words to describe the scene. Johnny Green: “Just couldn’t believe it. We held our own and knocked off the #4 team in the country. We hadn’t had much to smile about, but this was a day we’ll never forget.” Alex Engram: “Man. That was a great game. We just stuck to our gameplan and played with more intensity than I could have imagined. Execution, especially in the 2nd half, was amazing. The O-line played great for us, and our Defense was awesome.” Andre Gaffney: “Something I’ll always remember, and tell my kids about.” Coach DangerZoneh: “Could not be prouder. So many players made big plays in big situations. Alex, Johnny, Curtis, Kory - all of them. I can't say enough." Brandon Reamon: “We didn’t think we’d go into that cow-town and lose to a bunch of 2-star and no-star recruits. No Sterling really hurt the offense, and Jones didn’t have one of his best games.” Gordon Moreland: “Kind of couldn’t believe it! Clock hit all zeroes, and we just stood there like zombies.” John Jones: “You come in so confident and so ready to play well. When you hit a snag like that, it takes you completely by surprise.” 4. Buoyed by the homestanding win over Texas, TCU won their next two games, over Baylor (17-14) and Iowa State (10-3), before a season-finishing loss to the Red Raiders of Texas Tech (34-7). But finishing the season at 4-8 hardly dampened the spirits of Coach Danger and his crew. The coaching staff got right to work identifying the kinds of players they would need to pull off a similar upset in the future. TCU grabbed a couple of studs in the 2014 JuCo recruiting sweepstakes in RB Bradley Cooley, TE Paul Carter-Williams, OT Charles Mahan, and a pair of Free Safeties Andrew Wright and Quinn Cooper. The overall 2014 recruiting class was ranked in the Top 10 by numerous services and featured eventual All-American wide receiver Jamel Beckham. 2015 began with much promise, still riding the high of knocking off mighty Texas. However, the youth movement needed one more season to develop, and the Horned Frogs lost their first six contests before finishing 3-9. The Horned Frogs were unable to repeat their success versus Texas in Austin in 2015, as the Longhorns enacted a measure of revenge with a 51-7 victory over a young TCU squad. Another stellar recruiting off-season saw TCU again surge in the national eye, and 2016 saw the Frogs sneaking into the Top 25 for parts of the campaign. A season-opening loss to the Georgia Bulldogs was the only blemish through much of the season--TCU went on to win 8 straight before finally dropping consecutive games to Oklahoma and, yes, Texas. The Frogs did finish the regular season with a win over Baylor, leading to a win in the school’s first bowl game, the Bourbon Bowl over Ohio State. Flipping their record from the previous season completely around, TCU finished 2016 10-3. It led to even bigger things, and bigger wins, in 2017 (13-2, a Pinstripe Bowl win over Air Force and Top 5 national ranking, but with a loss at Texas in week 12) and 2018 (won first 11 games, lost final three including Conference Championship Game to Kansas and Alamo Bowl to USC). In the 2018 season, TCU was finally able to recreate their famous victory over Texas, bringing their all-time record versus the Longhorns to 2-4. 2019 began with the same promise, and a Top 10 national preseason ranking, but the talent losses from the Horned Frog heyday led to a dismal 1-8 opening to this current season, of course including a 31-27 loss to Texas. But the mark was clear: the 2014 TCU Horned Frogs found the right mix of emotion and execution to pull off the most remarkable upset in site history. Several players from the game went on to be drafted in the NFLHC draft. Jacky Walters, Alphonso Greisen, and Alex Engram can reminisce about the game together as they now share the same uniform suiting up for the Miami Dolphins. Willard Arnold plays a big role for the New England Patriots starting at inside linebacker for them. Offensive Tackle Brandon Reamon, a freshman during the game, was drafted in the 2018 draft by the Tennessee Titans and currently is their starting left tackle. Harry Whiteside, a freshman slot receiver for the Longhorns, currently is a starter for the Kansas City Chiefs. Willie Wood is manning the safety position in New Orleans and finally Gino Chiaverini is still kicking field goals with the Atlanta Falcons. Texas, for its part, did not exactly let the defeat to TCU in 2014 derail their future success. But it certainly dampened the spirits of the 2014 campaign. The next week, Texas went to Dallas for the Red River Rivalry game against #15 Oklahoma. They came out flat and uninspired in a 24-14 loss. With the dream of a national title season evaporating, Texas dropped a third straight game to Oklahoma State (10-7) before re-grouping and closing out the regular season with two wins, over Texas Tech (35-7) and Baylor (35-7). The solace of a Meineke Car Care Bowl proved just beyond inspiration as the Longhorns closed out a disappointing 2014 season with a loss to Pittsburgh, 35-21. Coach DollaBill, midway through a potentially promising 2015 season which finished 7-6, was dismissed for IPGate violations. Replaced by former Arizona State head man AzulCaballero, the Texas faithful felt they had finally found their man. 2016 was a turnaround for the Burnt Orange, as the Longhorns responded to Azul’s coaching with a 12-2 season, Big-12 championship, and close loss to Notre Dame in the Peach Bowl, to finish ranked #5 in the country. But it was all a prelude to the magical 2017 season. Texas, despite a 2OT loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers in week 8, ran the table all the way to a National Title, defeating Nebraska in the title game. 2018 and thus far in 2019, the dice haven’t fallen as grandly for the Longhorns, but a National Title is worth its weight in gold in the land of CFBHC, and much is forgiven after. Texas came back from their disastrous night in Fort Worth in 2014 stronger than ever.
  18. 41 points
    Dear diary, I was drafted by the Colts. It was very cool. All of my friends were happy. I was on TV! Hi Mom and Dad! Then I got a trip to Hawaii! It is far away so I took a plane ride! Then I did all kinds of cool things! Like surfing! And there was a beach! And at the end of the night I went to sleep. It was a very fun trip!
  19. 41 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC Development Announcement

    All, I'd like to welcome Broletariat aboard as a developer so we can hopefully, finally, get our own fully automated system in place for future seasons of both CFBHC and NFLHC. Our plan heading forward will be two-fold: Soluna - I will head the administrative side as well as providing project guidance. We will indirectly involve the entire community in the decision making on the project through a variety of initiatives (that will be outlined in the future) although we will have final say on the course of development. Broletariat - He will do the majority of coding and development in conjunction with my algorithms and ideas. We're going to try an "open style" of development to keep people informed and present information as we develop it. We'll do this as follows: Public Development Forum - A new forum that will come up shortly that will provide a space for us to move stuff from our private development forum as necessary. Development Polls - Occasionally in the new forum I will post polls that will have an impact on our development, anyone is free to vote in them as long as they are open. Developer Diaries - Either of us will occasionally post in-depth looks at features that have been developed and are ready to show of OR a vision towards an upcoming module in development. Keep in mind that, no matter how amazing an idea sounds, we might just not have the capabilities of doing everything. A simulation as complex as I know most of you wants just isn't feasible as you would essentially be simulating life... but we will do our best. You guys can play a major role by staying active with any polls or feedback we ask of you. Thanks, Soluna and Broletariat
  20. 40 points
    What if I told you... that sometimes even scoring 40 can you lose you a championship? Soluna: "That was the defining moment of my college football coaching career, there just isn't much else you can bring." What if I told you... that in a game with 700 yards of offense, it would be decided by just 1? Norris Brooksheer: "It really was just amazing, to have that whole season come down to just that one moment." Pete Choboian: "Looking back on it now, I really can't believe how that game ended... everyone fought so hard. " What if I told you... Ian Smith's crowning moment came on the final play of his college career? ...and propelled ChicagoTed1 into the CFBHC History Books... ...CFBHC Films presents "Sooner or Later" - the story of the 2015 Oklahoma Sooners.
  21. 40 points
    Soluna

    Happy 2nd Birthday CFBHC!

    Thanks everyone, but especially those who've been here since the beginning!
  22. 39 points
    Soluna

    Happy Thanksgiving

    Happy Thanksgiving CFBHC For one day stay off the shoutbox and enjoy the company of your friends and/or family. Eat some food, watch or play some football, be thankful for what you have and don't be bitter for what you don't. Everyone here is family - never be afraid to talk with each other. Happy Thanksgiving, Soluna
  23. 39 points
    After 222 days, 21 hours, and roughly 20 minutes of online time, and five CFBHC seasons, five SHC seasons, (almost) four NFLHC seasons, and one CBBHC season, I'm retiring. Between the job I started a few months ago, my recent engagement/wedding stuff, and buying a house, I just won't have the time I'd like to devote to the site. To say it's been fun would be the understatement of the century. A ginormous thanks goes out to Soluna for the billions of hours of work and all the money, blood, sweat, tears, etc. that he put into making this site and keeping it all rolling. When you take a step back, it's pretty remarkable how a bunch of (mostly) strangers came together to spend all day online playing a forum football simulator together. The Dawgs finished with our fourth straight 10-win regular season. The Saints are aiming for a Super Bowl trip. Bayern took home our elusive league title. Georgia CBBHC team is awful. Couldn't ask for a better way to go out! Thanks to Soluna, the rest of the mods, and all the users for a great ride. P.S. Wedding date is April 23, 2016...HYPE!
  24. 38 points
    HAFFnHAFF

    PhillyFan3: Gone But Not Forgotten

    The year was 2016. A brilliant new mind joined the CFB ranks. @Phillyfan3's radical approach to offense and commitment to a 2 QB system was poised to change the entire landscape of CFBHC, years before offensive geniuses like Sean McVay and Doug Pederson revolutionized the real life NFL. Phillyfan3 was years ahead of his time. And yet, often when someone is years ahead of their time, they aren't received well. After applying and being rejected for 3 jobs Phillyfan would go on his epic rant stating, "JESUS CHRIST I expect a retracted statement and to be approved." Ultimately he would get his chance, as the Utah State Aggies took a shot on the intriguing candidate. In the days that followed there was mass confusion on the site as Depth Chart-Gate rocked everyone to their core. Bleach Report was able to obtain some of the source documentation from this time. As Phillyfan's struggles continued, many coaches reached out offering a helping hand that was slapped away. Some even attempted to create a depth chart to be copied, but to no avail. As the Utah State football program shutdown continued, the entire nation watched on the edge of their seats. As the days stretched into weeks, patience began to run thin and Phillyfan was ultimately fired, escorted from his office by security, and disappeared into the sunset never to be heard from again. Yes, Phillyfan was gone, but he would never be forgotten. He was inducted into the CFBHC Hall of Infamy, and will forever be chronicled in our memes, remembered for his 2 QB system, and his catchphrase, "interesting..." despite never actually coaching a game. Take my Depth Chart Two years later, CFBHC held an important midterm election. And one of the amendments voted on was the legalization of 2 QB offensive systems. It passed with an overwhelming 83% majority, thus paving the road back to glory for Phillyfan. Once again CFBHC waited on Phillyfan with baited breath. But this time the days turned into weeks which turned into months and years but Phillyfan was not to return. The once forsaken coach was gone for good, never to be seen nor heard from again... OR WAS HE? Flash forward to the 2022 NFL draft. With the 30th pick in the 3rd round the Miami Dolphins selected Steven Gore, QB, from UCLA despite having perennial MVP Brian Brown at QB. Then, early in the season, the Dolphins employed a 2 QB system bringing Steven Gore in to close out games with enough frequency that he was given the nickname, "The Closer." Gore leads the NFL in passer rating among all qualifying QBs* and teammate Brian Brown ranks 3rd. The Dolphins are utilizing a 2 QB system and it is setting the league on fire. No one thought much of it until Bleach Report received an anonymous tip last week that @smckenz3 is actually an alt for @Phillyfan3. As we began to dig into this story we started to question everything we thought we already knew. Bleach Report now strongly suspects that smckenz is indeed the former disgraced coach known as Phillyfan. Not quite convinced? Ask yourself this question: Have you ever seen Phillyfan and smckenz in the same room? *Qualifying QBs must have attempted 10+ passes UPDATE: We reached out to smckenz for an official comment on this breaking story and received this response:
  25. 38 points
    Welcome to the Chicago Tribune's By the Numbers, a statistically minded look at the contenders and pretenders of the 2021 NFL season. We're approximately at mid-season, with the trade deadline coming up and seven or eight games in the book for all 32 teams. The playoff picture is starting to take shape, but in a lot of places it's awful jumbled--so we'll take a look at the numbers and try to make sense of it. We'll go division-by-division and team-by-team to tell you what has been, what is, and what might be. Not sure yet whether this will be a recurring series--if it is, it will likely only be occasional as opposed to weekly (and it probably won't be as long as this one). Quick note: Strength of played schedule excludes games involving the team in question. Strength of remaining schedule does not--that is, if you've already played 1 of 2 games against a division opponent, that game will be counted in strength of remaining schedule. This is just due to the fact that the former adjustment is easier to put in a spreadsheet than the latter. AFC East 1. Miami Dolphins (8-0) Scoring stats: 30.25 PF/game (2nd), 15.5 PA/game (1st), +14.75 PD/game (1st) Strength of played schedule: 25-28 (.472, 21st-hardest) Strength of remaining schedule: 26-31 (.456, 25th-hardest) Projected record: 14.0-2.0 Projected finish: 1st in AFC East, #1 seed in the AFC playoffs If you didn't get the memo, the Dolphins are good. Like, really good. Like, Super Bowl favorite good. Five of their eight wins have been by multiple possessions, and it hasn't really mattered how good their opponent is. They shot down the Jets and sailed past the Raiders, and that's just the past two weeks. With a 2.5-game lead on the rest of the conference and no sign of slowing, the Dolphins are favored to get the #1 seed in the AFC and earn their first playoff appearance since 2018. If Miami gets through the Rams without a blemish, they will be at a point where the conversation should shift to whether 16-0 is a possibility. As of now, they have a 9.9% chance of doing so; winning up to that point would get them into about the 25% range. Even if they don't go 16-0, this is the best team Miami's had since their two Super Bowl wins. Enjoy this, Miami fans. 2. New York Jets (5-2) Scoring stats: 29.71 PF/game (4th), 27.14 PA/game (25th), +2.57 PD/game (10th) Strength of played schedule: 25-22 (.532, 13th) Strength of remaining schedule: 32-34 (.485, 19th) Projected record: 10.4-5.6 Projected finish: 2nd in AFC East, #6 seed in the AFC playoffs We're coming up on six years since the New York Jets watched the playoffs on TV rather than playing in them. And more likely than not, that's not going to change this year...but for the first time in a while, there's room for doubt. The Jets started 5-0, but four of those wins came by one possession against three teams they probably should have beaten anyway (plus Jacksonville). They then were routed in the division showdown against the Dolphins before being upset at home by the Broncos in overtime. What's worrying is their defense: they're in the bottom quartile of the league, and they've given up 102 points in their last three games. As long as they can still throw points on the board, though, they'll be a playoff contender. 3. New England Patriots (4-4) Scoring stats: 27.0 PF/game (9th), 24.25 PA/game (16th), +2.75 PD/game (9th) Strength of played schedule: 27-22 (.551, 9th) Strength of remaining schedule: 29-31 (.483, 21st) Projected record: 8.0-8.0 Projected finish: 3rd in AFC East, miss playoffs, #17 overall pick unlikely to convey to Baltimore; also own Miami's projected #25-32 overall first-round pick The Pats are a bit of a strange team. Their point differential pegs them as a slightly better-than-.500 team, and the back half of their schedule shouldn't be quite as hard as the front half. But the projection still calls it a wash and expects them to essentially repeat their 4-4 first half in the second half. I think what's hidden is that there's a wide range for what New England is capable of. Maybe they pull an upset over the Jets in defense-optional mode and Old Man Reggie takes revenge against the Ravens to sneak them up to a playoff bid at 10-6. Maybe they lay a dud against San Francisco or Cleveland (either of whom could resurge down the stretch) and finish 6-10 to earn a top-10 pick. ...or maybe they do neither and finish a boring 8-8. They'll also have Miami's pick next year, so slipping down in the first round wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Maybe the next J.C. Weldon will fall to them. 4. Buffalo Bills (2-5) Scoring stats: 21.1 PF/game (24th), 27.0 PA/game (23rd), -5.86 PD/game (27th) Strength of played schedule: 25-21 (.543, 10th) Strength of remaining schedule: 31-36 (.463, 24th) Projected record: 6.3-9.7 Projected finish: 4th in AFC East, miss playoffs, #10 overall pick plus Houston's projected #9 overall pick The Bills are currently projected in a crowd of teams that are all projected between 6.0 and 6.5 wins. Despite the fact that they aren't strong on either side of the ball, a finish anywhere from 4-5 to 6-3 is certainly possible because they play a smorgasbord of beatable opponents: the entire AFC North, the under-new-management Cardinals, the hapless Chargers, and the mercurial Patriots. If they sell off any assets between now and the trade deadline, it'll serve the secondary purpose of gaining the edge over other teams they're competing with for draft position. Or maybe the primary purpose. AFC North 1. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4) Scoring stats: 22.43 PF/game (22nd), 24.14 PA/game (15th), -1.71 PD/game (19th) Strength of played schedule: 15-30 (.333, 31st) Strength of remaining schedule: 35-33 (.515, 13th) Projected record: 7.0-9.0 Projected finish: 2nd in AFC North, miss playoffs, #14 overall pick In their first seven games, the Steelers have played one team with a record above .500 (the Raiders) and one team with a .500 record (the Patriots). They haven't won a game outside the AFC North. They've provided the struggling Bills, Pats, and Lions with a win apiece. They have a sub-.500 record and a negative point differential...and they lead the division. I don't know if that's the good news or the bad news. But what's unambiguously bad news is that their schedule reverts to the mean going forward. Their next five games include 5-2 Chicago, 2-5 Cincinnati, 8-0 Miami, 7-0 Green Bay, and the 5-2 Jets. The Colts and Vikings follow, and they're capable of catching lightning in a bottle and playing better than their 2-6 record. Bottom line: the Steelers have to win tough games to stay in the division race, and that's not necessarily going to be true for everyone else in the North. 2. Baltimore Ravens (3-5) Scoring stats: 24.25 PF/game (17th), 22.63 PA/game (13th), +1.63 PD/game (13th) Strength of played schedule: 27-25 (.519, 15th) Strength of remaining schedule: 24-34 (.414, 29th) Projected record: 7.5-8.5 Projected finish: 1st in AFC North, #4 seed in the AFC playoffs, New England's projected #17 overall pick unlikely to convey The Ravens are the opposite of the Steelers. They're a game back in the loss column, but they've largely survived the hardest part of their schedule with a record that will let them compete for the division. The Bears and Jaguars are the only teams above .500 on the remainder of their schedule, but New England and Pittsburgh could be toss-up games as well. Detroit is also a wild card. They're probably going to need 8 wins to take the division, if not 9. It's going to be hard for them to get more than that, though they've been competitive in every single game other than the season-opening drubbing by Miami. The Ravens are currently the division favorite because of their potential and their schedule, but the division is so volatile that this could change again next week. 3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-5) Scoring stats: 25.71 PF/game (14th), 31.71 PA/game (31st), -6.00 PD/game (28th) Strength of played schedule: 13-33 (.283, 32nd) Strength of remaining schedule: 36-31 (.537, 8th) Projected record: 4.7-11.3 Projected finish: 4th in AFC North, miss playoffs, #3 overall pick The Bengals have played the worst schedule in the league so far and emerged with a 2-5 record from it. They upset the Bears, they outpaced the Chargers, and...that's it. The only other .500 team they played was New England, who waxed them. Most recently, they made Brad Davis and Keith Dunn look like an elite backfield. They can score, but they can't score enough to keep pace with a defense that's giving up 31.7 points per game to (again) the worst schedule in the league. The good news is that they'll be in great position to draft a premier defensive talent at the top of the draft. 4. Cleveland Browns (1-7) Scoring stats: 20.25 PF/game (26th), 25.13 PA/game (18th), -4.88 PD/game (24th) Strength of played schedule: 31-19 (.620, 3rd) Strength of remaining schedule: 21-38 (.356, 32nd) Projected record: 5.2-10.8 Projected finish: 3rd in AFC North, miss playoffs, #4 overall pick In week 1, the Browns beat the Bengals. Since then, they haven't beaten anybody--but their opponents have included six projected playoff teams and the Steelers. They've lost four games by 3 or fewer points. And going forward, the 4-4 Patriots are the only team on their remaining schedule with a .500 or better record. If there's a team that's a candidate for a second-half turnaround, it's the Browns--the problem is that any turnaround starts from a 1-7 position. If they were to go an unlikely 6-2 with wins over the Bills, Texans, Vikings, Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals, then they probably still finish a game short of the division at 7-9. A perfect run would give them a shot at the playoffs, and they play good enough defense to do it. But unless they can start to score more, we're talking about the difference between a top-5 pick and a top-10 pick. AFC South 1. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) Scoring stats: 30.14 PF/game (3rd), 20.71 PA/game (7th), +9.43 PD/game (7th) Strength of played schedule: 21-23 (.477, 20th) Strength of remaining schedule: 36-33 (.522, 11th) Projected record: 10.0-6.0 Projected finish: 1st in AFC South, #3 seed in the AFC playoffs What kind of CAR runs the quickest? A Jaguar, of course. The trio of Christian Barkley, Asante Sowell, and Raheem Robinson pace the third highest scoring offense in the league, and they've established the early pole position for what is currently the most important division race in the AFC. (The second place finisher is not a projected playoff team, so as of now it's win the division or go home in the South.) The biggest thorn in Jacksonville's side right now is their home loss to Tennessee on Thursday night of week 2. They followed that up with a Sunday night loss to the Jets. Other than that, they've taken care of business--including a potentially valuable win over fellow AFC contender Kansas City. Jacksonville's performance also holds up when adjusting for opponent performance moreso than any AFC team not named Miami or Las Vegas. Their schedule gets tougher down the stretch with 7 potential playoff contenders in their final 9 games. They don't have to win them all; they just have to win enough of them. 2. Tennessee Titans (5-3) Scoring stats: 29.50 PF/game (6th), 25.75 PA/game (21st), +3.75 PD/game (8th) Strength of played schedule: 23-27 (.460, 22nd) Strength of remaining schedule: 29-30 (.492, 17th) Projected record: 9.6-6.4 Projected finish: 2nd in AFC South, miss playoffs, #20 overall pick If the Titans miss the playoffs by a game, their baffling 35-20 week 3 loss to the Bills will loom large. They beat the Jaguars on the road. They've otherwise taken care of business against non-contenders, though they were gored by the Raiders and edged by the Panthers. With Wheelin' Dealin' Wheeler at the helm and a stable of wide receivers that can run wild on anybody in the league, Tennessee is capable of scoring--but they're not unstoppable, and their defense is prone to lapses. Their next four games are against teams that are .500 or better--including the home game against the Jaguars. That's likely going to be their make-or-break stretch. 3. Houston Texans (3-4) Scoring stats: 26.29 PF/game (11th), 30.86 PA/game (30th), -4.57 PD/game (23rd) Strength of played schedule: 21-26 (.447, 24th) Strength of remaining schedule: 35-32 (.522, 9th) Projected record: 6.3-9.7 Projected finish: 3rd in AFC South, miss playoffs, #9 overall pick conveyed to Buffalo The Texans have given up 94 points in their last two games, which is less than ideal. It could be worse, because one of those games was a 45-42 win over Indianapolis (hold that thought). But the defense is getting rung like a bell and things are only going to get worse with Frederick Fain out for the rest of the season. This is a very high-scoring, low-defense division with all four teams in the top 12 in over/under per game. But Houston's surprisingly solid offense and usually absent defense make them the 2nd most shootout-prone team in the whole NFL. Again, it could be worse. They'll sell a lot of tickets that way, fans will come to watch Leshoure row, and they won't have to think about the fact that Buffalo owns their next first-rounder too. 4. Indianapolis Colts (2-6) Scoring stats: 24.5 PF/game (16th), 29.88 PA/game (29th), -5.38 PD/game (25th) Strength of played schedule: 33-19 (.635, 2nd) Strength of remaining schedule: 29-29 (.500, 14th) Projected record: 6.1-9.9 Projected finish: 4th in AFC South, miss playoffs, #8 overall pick conveyed to LA Chargers Much has been made of the Colts' runningback situation, and their lack of 1st- or 2nd-round pick will make it tough to address that problem next season. While their offense ranks ahead of their defense by a lot, it's fair to place that kind of emphasis on the run game because otherwise they have the tools for a top-5 offense. They have one of the best regular-season quarterbacks in the league and a ridiculously talented set of receivers. But they still score at an average rate, and they don't hold the ball long enough to give their defense time to rest. Even with a run game, they won't win if they're allowing 30 points a game. They should get some much-needed regression to the mean with their second-half schedule, but they would need a perfect second half (and some luck) to even think about the playoffs. They're in talks to sell assets (including trading Jeremy Bell), so the front office seems to see the writing on the wall already. AFC West T-1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) Scoring stats: 23.29 PF/game (20th), 21.71 PA/game (10th), +1.57 PD/game (14th) Strength of played schedule: 25-20 (.556, 8th) Strength of remaining schedule: 26-41 (.388, 31st) Projected record: 10.6-5.4 Projected finish: 2nd in AFC West, #5 seed in the AFC playoffs Run the dang ball, and good things will happen. The Chiefs' two-headed bull-headed attack has worked wonders with the departure of Thomas Wheeler. Perhaps part of its success is actually just the fact that it keeps the opposing offense off the field considering that the Chiefs are still just 20th in scoring, but it's pretty frickin' hard to argue with wins over the Raiders and the Eagles. The Raiders win will be particularly valuable if things come down to a division tiebreaker; however, the loss to the Jaguars could bite them in a wild card tiebreaker scenario. Truly the best thing the Chiefs have going for them (other than being a solid team) is that their remaining schedule is favorable. They have as many games remaining against teams above .500 as they have games remaining against the Chargers (2). A win over the Titans would put them in enviable playoff position; a loss wouldn't necessarily eliminate them. T-1. Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) Scoring stats: 32.0 PF/game (1st), 19.29 PA/game (6th), +12.71 PD/game (2nd) Strength of played schedule: 25-21 (.543, 10th) Strength of remaining schedule: 32-33 (.492, 16th) Projected record: 11.4-4.6 Projected finish: 1st in AFC West, #2 seed in the AFC playoffs The Raiders possess the point differential of a team that should be 6-1 or 7-0; instead, they're on the short end of the tiebreaker with the Chiefs. Their two losses have been reasonable: a 3-point defeat to the Chiefs, and a 7-point loss to the white-hot Dolphins. They have one other competitive game on their résumé, a 30-24 win over the Colts. Other than that? They crushed the Chargers and Steelers, they smothered the Broncos, and they opted not to remember the Titans. This team has that extra gear that a contender needs, but their baseline is so high that they don't usually have to rely on it. Barring health problems, expect the Raiders to kick it up in the second half; it would be surprising (though not impossible) for them to earn anything less than a first-round bye. 3. Denver Broncos (4-4) Scoring stats: 19.63 PF/game (27th), 21.0 PA/game (8th), -1.38 PD/game (18th) Strength of played schedule: 21-29 (.420...I see what you did there, Denver) Strength of remaining schedule: 33-25 (.569, 4th) Projected record: 7.9-8.1 Projected finish: 3rd in AFC West, miss playoffs, #15 overall pick The Broncos have had a solid couple of weeks, dismissing the Chargers in week 7 before going on the road to stun the Jets in overtime in the early-going this past Sunday. If they're finding their offensive footing with 69 points in two weeks (nice), this is a really good sign for them...for next year. They just don't have a route to the playoffs at this point, even at a respectable 4-4. It's likely going to take 10 or 11 wins to get a wild card spot, and the Broncos have one of the toughest slates remaining. They have the Giants and Chargers, yes. Apart from those two, their other six remaining opponents all have winning records. That includes the Eagles, Jaguars, and Raiders once each and the Chiefs twice. And in order to truly turn up the heat down the stretch, they'll need to keep up that level of offense against opponents that aren't 32nd and 25th in scoring defense like the Chargers and Jets are. Does Todd Jennings have it in him? 4. Los Angeles Chargers (0-7) Scoring stats: 15.71 PF/game (31st), 35.43 PA/game (32nd), -19.71 PD/game (T-31st) Strength of played schedule: 18-26 (.409, 28th) Strength of remaining schedule: 37-29 (.561, 5th) Projected record: 1.2-14.8 Projected finish: 4th in AFC West, miss playoffs, #1 overall pick plus the Colts' projected #8 overall pick The Chargers are the last winless team in the NFL and currently riding a 22-game losing streak. There's about a 29% chance that they finish the season without breaking that streak. Their best chance is probably their home game against Buffalo week 12; maybe they get lucky and the Eagles or Chiefs rest starters at the end of the season. Their only competitive games so far have been against the Bengals and Giants. They still have the Raiders again, the Chiefs twice, the Eagles, and the Cowboys. They should begin considering who they want with the #1 overall pick. Projected AFC playoffs: #3 Jacksonville Jaguars over #6 New York Jets #5 Kansas City Chiefs over #4 Baltimore Ravens #1 Miami Dolphins over #5 Kansas City Chiefs #2 Las Vegas Raiders over #3 Jacksonville Jaguars #1 Miami Dolphins over #2 Las Vegas Raiders ************************************************************************************************************************************ NFC East 1. Philadelphia Eagles (7-1) Scoring stats: 29.63 PF/game (5th), 18.13 PA/game (5th), +11.5 PD/game (3rd) Strength of played schedule: 25-24 (.510, 17th) Strength of remaining schedule: 25-33 (.431, 28th) Projected record: 12.5-3.5 Projected finish: 1st in NFC East, #2 seed in the NFC playoffs By adjusted margin of victory, the Eagles are the second-best team in their own division. Part of that is owed to closer-than-expected wins against struggling Detroit and San Francisco in the past two weeks. We'll get into why Dallas is so highly rated in their own section, but let's not sleep on Philly. They're certainly one of the two best teams in the NFC, and only the Packers' undefeated record keeps the Eagles from being a projected 1-seed. They have an early 2.5-game lead in the division (2 games in the loss column), and the NFC isn't particularly deep this year. The Eagles are playing well on both ends of the field, one of 5 teams in the entire league to rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense. They're a playoff team, and they're probably getting a bye. 2. Dallas Cowboys (4-3) Scoring stats: 26.14 PF/game (12th), 15.71 PA/game (2nd), +10.43 PD/game (5th) Strength of played schedule: 29-15 (.659, 1st) Strength of remaining schedule: 33-33 (.500, 14th) Projected record: 10.5-5.5 Projected finish: 2nd in NFC East, #5 seed in the NFC playoffs When the Cowboys win, they're dominant. They held the Giants to 3 points, Washington to 9, and both Denver and Kansas City to 6. Two of their three losses have come by one possession, and all three have come to elite teams. So adjusted margin of victory is quite kind to the Cowboys, who are rated as the 2nd-best team by that metric when their record doesn't back that up. Essentially, how much you want to believe in the Cowboys depends entirely on how much weight you put on their schedule and how much weight you put on their potential. The back half of their schedule isn't easy by any means--their next five opponents are all over .500, though none of their final four games are. There aren't that many teams they need to outpace; if they go 3-1 against the NFC South, sweep the Chargers and Giants, and find another win or two anywhere else on the schedule, they should be in the playoffs. 3. Washington Football Club (3-4) Scoring stats: 24.14 PF/game (18th), 22.29 PA/game (12th), +1.86 PD/game (12th) Strength of played schedule: 25-21 (.543, 10th) Strength of remaining schedule: 31-34 (.477, 22nd) Projected record: 7.9-8.1 Projected finish: 3rd in NFC East, miss playoffs, #16 overall pick Washington probably isn't a playoff team this year, but that's okay. There were exactly two things that mattered this season: Tanner Bowman's development, and the team's ability to build around him. They're showing positive signs on both fronts. Bowman's been solid as a rookie, and their offense has improved by 8.7 points per game. The defense has quietly snuck into average (or maybe slightly above-average) territory. They'll want to grab a signature win to build on, but they've got the makings of a solid future in the nation's capital. Watch this space next year. 4. New York Giants (1-6) Scoring stats: 9.43 PF/game (32nd), 29.14 PA/game (28th), -19.71 PD/game (T-31st) Strength of played schedule: 19-25 (.432, 25th) Strength of remaining schedule: 42-25 (.627, 2nd) Projected record: 2.2-13.8 Projected finish: 4th in NFC East, miss playoffs, #2 overall pick They won a game. In scoring a season-high 19 points (which is a horrifying phrase to write) despite David Brezina's 10 of 21 effort for 75 yards and 2 interceptions, the Giants pushed past the Chargers to earn their first win of the season. They might win another one, though it's actually harder to pick a most winnable game for the Giants than it is for the Chargers. Washington is the only remaining sub-.500 team they play. The real drama will come down to two questions: will the Giants average a double-digit point total this season, and will they find a way to sneak back ahead of the Chargers for the #1 overall pick? NFC North 1. Green Bay Packers (7-0) Scoring stats: 25.71 PF/game (14th), 15.71 PA/game (2nd), +10.0 PD/game (6th) Strength of played schedule: 20-27 (.426, 26th) Strength of remaining schedule: 29-35 (.453, 26th) Projected record: 13.3-2.7 Projected finish: 1st in NFC North, #1 seed in the NFC playoffs Green Bay is one of three teams that are clearly above the NFC pa--er, above the NFC fray. It's their defense that's been leading the way, spearheaded by Marquise Reed and Julio Barnes in the secondary. The median team in the NFL gives up about 24.4 points per game; the Packers have held every single opponent they've played below that mark. (In fairness, three of them scored 23 or 24 points. But that's the most of anybody.) What's scary is that it's hard to say whether the Packers are playing at their full potential. Dan Nomellini's been overshadowed, and Jaz Durant has tailed off. But they're winning their games, they've beaten the good teams they've played, they've beaten the bad teams they've played, and their schedule favors them the rest of the way. Expect Green Bay to get a top-3 seed, if not a bye. 2. Chicago Bears (5-2) Scoring stats: 23.0 PF/game (21st), 22.86 PA/game (14th), +0.14 PD/game (17th) Strength of played schedule: 16-29 (.356, 30th) Strength of remaining schedule; 31-34 (.477, 22nd) Projected record: 9.4-6.6 Projected finish: 2nd in NFC North, #6 seed in the NFC playoffs Like the Titans, the Bears will have one game that they look upon with regret if they miss the playoffs by a game: a defense that's normally been solid this year gave up 34 points to the Bengals for one of Chicago's two losses. The Bears are 5-2 in large part because of several close wins, a sweep of the Vikings, and a 28-14 rout of the Rams on the road--but we're still talking about a team that struggles to block, struggles in the backfield, and relies almost entirely on receiving and defense. The good news for the Bears is that they don't need to be perfect, and they might not even need to be that good depending on how the NFC South and the Dallas Cowboys shake out. Again, the NFC's not that deep this year. A 10-win season in 2018 left them short; 10 wins this year could get them in. Taking a game from the Packers would also go a long way, though they'll also need to beat back the Lions at least once to prevent any pursuit from behind. This may well be Norris Brooksheer's last opportunity to make the playoffs as a Bear, and exceeding last year's win total in the first half of the season is a good start. 3. Detroit Lions (2-5) Scoring stats: 15.86 PF/game (30th), 21.43 PA/game (9th), -5.57 PD/game (26th) Strength of played schedule: 25-19 (.568, 7th) Strength of remaining schedule: 30-37 (.448, 27th) Projected record: 6.4-9.6 Projected finish: 3rd in NFC North, miss playoffs, #12 overall pick Like the Colts, the Lions' 4-year playoff streak is in serious jeopardy after an ice-cold start. The difference is that the cavalry is coming for Detroit in a way that it couldn't for Indianapolis. Keyshawn Thompson missed time with a foot fracture, but he's back now. Rob LeCount has been out with a wrist fracture, but he's reportedly medically cleared to play and questionable for Sunday's game against Cleveland. Blake Shell has been a serviceable stopgap, but the Lions' offense simply doesn't have a big-time playmaker without LeCount. With him, their offense moves up to the ranks of the average. That said, average offense and great defense can make a playoff team, and the Lions' defense has been unwavering. This is a team that will be dangerous from here to the end of the season. A 2-5 start is probably too much of a hole to dig out of and they essentially can't afford a loss, but it's not like there's an unwinnable game on their schedule. 4. Minnesota Vikings (2-6) Scoring stats: 19.5 PF/game (28th), 27.75 PA/game (27th), -8.25 PD/game (30th) Strength of played schedule: 29-21 (.580, 6th) Strength of remaining schedule: 23-35 (.397, 30th) Projected record: 5.2-10.8 Projected finish: 4th in NFC North, miss playoffs, #6 overall pick The Vikings seem to have taken all the misfortunes of the NFC North and rolled them into one package: their offense wasn't loaded with playmakers in the first place. Both sides of the ball are dealing with serious injury issues. They're not scoring, they're not defending, and they're not winning. Except when they're playing the Bengals or the Cardinals, apparently. While the first half was the tougher half of their schedule, being down six players for the season is going to make it difficult to actually do anything about the cakelike second half. They'll get Brian Vardell back in the next few weeks, but what good will that do? Prized rookie Luke Cobb is done for the year, so there's no connection to establish between him and Vardell. There's not much to play for other than pride. That might be enough. NFC South T-1. New Orleans Saints (5-3) Scoring stats: 27.0 PF/game (9th), 25.63 PA/game (20th), +1.38 PD/game (15th) Strength of played schedule: 27-24 (.529, 14th) Strength of remaining schedule: 29-30 (.492, 17th) Projected record: 9.1-6.9 Projected finish: 3rd in NFC South, miss playoffs, #18 overall pick The NFC South is by far the most competitive division in the league. Need evidence other than the fact that every team is within 1.5 games of the top? How about the fact that the Saints are projected to be within 0.2 wins of the division lead...which is still only the third-best projection in the division. Despite injuries to their receivers, the Devereaux and Jenkins (and Jamaal Brown-Sanderson) Show is continuing to light up scoreboards leaguewide. And more importantly, they're playing a modicum of defense! Sure, it's league-average defense at best, but that's the difference between them and the reeling Colts. The Saints are 2-2 in division play: a split with Atlanta, a home win over Carolina, and a home loss to Tampa Bay. Their next six games are all non-divisional, so they'll likely have a shot heading into the final two weeks of the season. Given that both those games are on the road, they will likely need to be 1 game up entering that stretch. T-1. Carolina Panthers (5-3) Scoring stats: 25.88 PF/game (13th), 25.25 PA/game (19th), +0.63 PD/game (16th) Strength of played schedule: 31-20 (.608, 5th) Strength of remaining schedule: 32-26 (.552, 6th) Projected record: 9.3-6.7 Projected finish: 1st in NFC South, #4 seed in the NFC playoffs It is tough to imagine a playoff without Christian Skaggs, who has led the Panthers to the postseason for each of the past 5 seasons now. It's the second-longest streak in the league, and it's in danger this season. The Panthers are a solid offensive team, but not the elite unit you'd expect with the Skaggs-Latta-Jackson-Henry quartet. When adjusting for opponent, the Panthers are also a pretty solid defensive unit, but not an elite one there either. They've had one of the toughest schedules, with a loss to Green Bay and division losses to both New Orleans and Tampa Bay--the latter two could come back to haunt them. They've also picked up wins over the Rams, Falcons, and Titans, so we're still not talking about a team of scrubs. The problem is that they've had a tough schedule already, and they have a tough remaining schedule. Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Dallas are three of their next four games; they also have to play each division opponent again. They have been in discussions to move either Jacoby Seaverns or Mike Latta, which would be surprising for a team that needs all the help it can get to stay playoff-bound in a division that could be decided by something as simple as a shift of the wind on a field goal attempt in week 17. 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) Scoring stats: 28.86 PF/game (7th), 26.71 PA/game (22nd), +2.14 PD/game (11th) Strength of played schedule: 29-18 (.617, 4th) Strength of remaining schedule: 32-34 (.485, 19th) Projected record: 9.1-6.9 Projected finish: 2nd in NFC South, miss playoffs, #19 overall pick Tampa Bay is only going to go as far as Taylor Heiden takes them. When they're good, they can be really good. They're scoring an extra 4.8 points per game above what their opponents typically allow. The only team so far to hold them to fewer than 27 points in a game was the Eagles, who we've already established are pretty dang good this year. They followed up that 10-point effort with a 38-13 demolition of the Falcons, and they have a 3-0 record in division play. But even with a similar scoring defense ranking to their divisional compatriots, they've been more vulnerable to outright defensive collapses. They let up 45 to Tennessee and 38 to Philadelphia as their opening act. They've given up 35 to Indianapolis and 28 to New Orleans in their two most recent games. Good offenses don't just score on them, they torch them. But their offense is every bit as explosive as the Saints' offense, so they'll have a shot. Their schedule is chock full of games that are winnable but certainly not easy. That's the story of the NFC South, though: whoever wins those toss-up games is going to win the division. 4. Atlanta Falcons (3-4) Scoring stats: 22.43 PF/game (22nd), 25.00 PA/game (17th), -2.57 PD/game (20th) Strength of played schedule: 23-22 (.511, 16th) Strength of remaining schedule: 35-32 (.522, 9th) Projected record: 6.6-9.4 Projected finish: 4th in NFC South, miss playoffs, #13 overall pick Whereas the rest of the division is offense-first, defense-second, the Falcons have historically inverted that trend in the NFC South. That looked like a promising formula during a 2-0 start to the season with wins over the Niners and Saints. Since then, the Falcons have lost 4 of 5. They've given up 27 points or more in all four losses and 31 or more in two--that spoiled what has otherwise been a surprisingly solid offensive effort over that stretch. Three of those losses have come in division play, erasing the advantage they earned from the Saints win. And their remaining schedule doesn't have a single easy win on it given that the Lions can defend and the Colts can attack. The Falcons haven't made the playoffs since their Super Bowl run, though they came tantalizingly close last year. This skid has seriously damaged their chances of getting back. They're not in this predicament because their schedule's been overly tough; it's because they haven't been able to win enough toss-up games. Turn that around, and they're still not totally out of the running yet. NFC West 1. Los Angeles Rams (5-2) Scoring stats: 28.57 PF/game (8th), 17.29 PA/game (4th), +11.29 PD/game (4th) Strength of played schedule: 22-23 (.489, 19th) Strength of remaining schedule: 36-30 (.545, 7th) Projected record: 10.8-5.2 Projected finish: 1st in NFC West, #3 seed in the NFC playoffs If you told me that I had to pick one team to make the playoffs upon penalty of being exiled to Missouri, I'd pick the Rams. They're far and away the best team in their division. They've already built a 2-game lead, and the only other team that is capable of challenging them is stuck in third. They've earned both halves of their 5-2 record. On the one hand, they demolished Detroit (less impressive in retrospect) and routed Dallas (which I expect to look better by season's end). On the other, they dropped back-to-back games early to Chicago and Carolina and they don't have any other particularly notable wins. What's crucial to understanding their season is the fact that they've played bad opponents and beaten them by a lot. That matters! Their schedule's going to get harder in the second half, with the entire AFC East plus the Packers on their schedule. Does it matter? Probably not. If they take care of business in their four remaining division games, they likely don't even need to win any of those. Win those four division games and beat 2-5 Buffalo, and that would mathematically be enough to clinch the division. They've been elite on both sides of the ball for years. Nobody else in their division is top-10 in scoring defense or top-16 in scoring offense. The Rams will win the division by a lot. 2. Arizona Cardinals (3-4) Scoring stats: 20.57 PF/game (25th), 27.29 PA/game (26th), -6.71 PD/game (29th) Strength of played schedule: 17-28 (.378, 29th) Strength of remaining schedule: 42-24 (.636, 1st) Projected record: 6.1-9.9 Projected finish: 3rd in NFC West, miss playoffs, #7 overall pick plus Seattle's projected #11 overall pick Things started off very promising in Arizona after back-to-back wins over Seattle and Detroit to start the season. The results since then have indicated that their early success was a mirage. Both of those opponents have struggled mightily, and the Redbirds have dropped four of five since then. That's a similar arc to the Falcons, except for the fact that the Cards have lost to teams that their ornithological relatives would have beaten. It's no shame that they were routed by Los Angeles. A loss to New England makes sense. Getting routed by Washington and Minnesota, though? That's...not ideal. With a new ownership group, the Cardinals are looking to elicit a cultur3 change--but it'll be hard to pull that off given that their schedule gets ridiculously hard in the second half. The Rams are the only team above .500 that they've played so far. They'll play the Dolphins, Bears, Rams, Jets, Saints, and Packers between now and season's end. It's a young team that wasn't expected to do well, and being at 3-4 right now would have been a positive sign at season's dawn. They also own Seattle's pick that's currently trending toward the upper half of the first round. But this is probably as good as it's going to get for them this year. 3. Seattle Seahawks (3-5) Scoring stats: 17.75 PF/game (29th), 22.25 PA/game (11th), -4.5 PD/game (22nd) Strength of played schedule: 25-24 (.510, 17th) Strength of remaining schedule: 30-28 (.517, 12th) Projected record: 6.4-9.6 Projected finish: 2nd in NFC West, miss playoffs, #11 overall pick conveyed to Arizona The good news for Seattle is that they've finally figured out how to score points. Their point total failed to eclipse the legal drinking age in any of their first six games of the season. On Monday night of week 7 in Los Angeles, though, they put up an impressive 30 points on the Rams. (They lost, but still.) They followed that up by scoring 28 against Buffalo, accompanied by the return of their stout defense. Their remaining schedule isn't so strong that they're out of the hunt yet. They don't need their offense to become elite; they just need to not be at the very bottom of the league. As of now, they have 13 touchdowns and 12 turnovers, they've given up 20 sacks, and their 17.3 yards per point is the third-worst in the NFL. They're averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 7.5 yards per pass attempt, so there's a spark there. They just have to commit fewer turnovers, take fewer sacks, and convert more third downs to keep drives alive. Their defense will take care of itself. It may be too late to make a charge for the division, but the wild card race is wide open because (all together now) the NFC is not that deep this year. 4. San Francisco 49ers (2-5) Scoring stats: 23.57 PF/game (19th), 27.0 PA/game (23rd), -3.43 PD/game (21st) Strength of played schedule: 20-24 (.455, 23rd) Strength of remaining schedule: 42-25 (.627, 2nd) Projected record: 5.2-10.8 Projected finish: 4th in NFC West, miss playoffs, #5 overall pick Oh, Niners. Poor Niners. I'm not sure they're really as bad as their 2-5 record suggests. Adjusting for opponent, they're literally the opposite of the Seahawks: they're scoring reasonably well, but not really playing much defense. They have spots of hope, such as their close loss to Philadelphia on Monday night. They also have moments that show just how much things can change in 2 years, such as their blowout loss to Arizona. Their wins so far are against Seattle and Buffalo, neither of whom are particularly fervent believers in scoring. And they ain't seen nothin' yet: their next six opponents are all .500 or better, including the undefeated Packers and Dolphins. And the Rams. And the Rams again. And the Jets. All of those teams can score, and all of them ought to score. It's not going to be a fun stretch, but it'll at least outline exactly where the former champs need to improve this offseason. They'll be back soon enough. Projected NFC Playoffs: #3 Los Angeles Rams over #6 Chicago Bears #5 Dallas Cowboys over #4 Carolina Panthers #5 Dallas Cowboys over #1 Green Bay Packers #2 Philadelphia Eagles over #5 Los Angeles Rams #5 Dallas Cowboys over #2 Philadelphia Eagles ************************************************************************************************************************************ Projected Super Bowl Miami Dolphins over Dallas Cowboys That does it for this edition of By the Numbers. Until next time, whenever that time may be!
  26. 38 points
    With the college football season more than halfway over, it's never too early to start thinking about, dreaming about, or planning for the postseason. So with that in mind, the Chicago Tribune data labs have been hard at work developing a projection model for the remainder of the season. It's based heavily on the Adjusted Margin of Victory model, and it essentially translates the point spread into a win probability using historical data. Those win probabilities are added to each team's current win-loss record for the full schedule for the remainder of the season to project each team's end-of-season total. The win probability for every game and resulting projected standings can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uKLNz0JnOeQmyFaxqLpWtidXTx1VbvleVH0x9nmPldQ/edit?usp=sharing And with that, we'll go into a deep dive into the projected picture for every division. We'll look at the numbers and the schedules, using them to paint as complete a picture as possible of each division's championship race as well as break down which teams are in the bowl hunt. We'll highlight some teams that aren't obvious, take a look at the work teams need to do, point out areas where the numbers don't tell the whole story--and point out areas where the numbers might tell a different story than the eye test. And, of course, we'll make our best guesses for who will be the nine conference champions this season. AAC East 1. UCF (11.04-0.97, 7.07-0.93 AAC) 2. USF (10.74-1.26, 6.74-1.26 AAC) 3. Temple (8.2-3.81, 6.2-1.81 AAC) 4. East Carolina (7.31-4.69, 4.31-3.69 AAC) 5. Connecticut (4.65-7.35, 2.85-5.15 AAC) 6. Cincinnati (2.81-9.19, 1.21-6.8 AAC) The AAC East is top-heavy, but its top layer manages to make up half the division. UCF and USF are both undefeated and stand nonzero chances of remaining undefeated through the end of the season--though we expect Temple to interrupt at least one of them and challenge for the East crown. In fact, we give the Owls a 40.6% shot to knock off the Bulls and even a 32.3% chance to defeat the Knights. Either would be a minor upset, but there's a reason Temple's projected to win 6.2 conference games. East Carolina is probably not going to win the division because it'll likely take a 7-1 record (or 6-2 with a tiebreaker) and ECU's already dropped two games--but they could play spoiler against UCF (19.4%) or Temple (35.9%). Both UCF and USF have clinched bowl appearances, Temple's on the cusp at 5-2 with Cincinnati and Navy still on the schedule, and East Carolina's in strong position at 4-3 with Tulane, UMass, and Memphis all left. UConn's probably out of the bowl hunt due to facing SMU, UCF, and USF in the back half and already sitting at 2-4; Cincinnati's 1-6 but could still snag another win or two before season's end even if they won't be headed to a bowl game. AAC West 1. SMU (10.1-1.9, 6.1-1.9 AAC) 2. Houston (6.82-5.18, 3.82-4.18 AAC) 3. Tulsa (3.56-8.44, 2.9-5.1 AAC) 4. Navy (2.74-9.26, 2.37-5.63 AAC) 5. Memphis (4.33-7.67, 2.33-5.67 AAC) 6. Tulane (2.36-9.65, 2.11-5.89 AAC) SMU is probably going to win the AAC West, and not just because they're the best team in the division. They've been one of the biggest misses in the preseason projections, floating around the mid-50s after their loss to UCF instead of the upper echelon as projected. But the rest of the division's been awful, with Houston (4-3) being the only other team with a winning record. And consequently, SMU's remaining schedule is a cakewalk: the Mustangs' next 4 opponents have 7 combined wins (Memphis has 3 of them). They could sweep those and clinch the division before playing Houston in the only division game in which they might break a sweat--and even then, we give them a 74.6% chance of winning. The only way SMU could lose the division is if Houston runs the table, and the Cougars still have a road date at USF (11.4% for Houston). SMU has already clinched a bowl bid. Houston can clinch with a win over UMass (virtually assured) plus a win over either Memphis or Tulsa (favored in both). Don't rule out a Memphis bowl just yet: they're only 3-4, but if they knock out Navy and UConn in their next two games as slight underdogs then they'll just be one upset away. Our pick: UCF (87.1%) over SMU ACC Atlantic 1. Clemson (8.98-3.02, 6.25-1.75 ACC) 2. Louisville (7.82-4.19, 4.82-3.19 ACC) 3. Syracuse (5.95-6.05, 4.65-3.35 ACC) 4. Florida State (6.39-5.61, 3.92-4.08 ACC) 5. Boston College (3.73-8.28, 3.73-4.28 ACC) 6. Wake Forest (3.14-8.86, 2.14-5.86 ACC) 7. NC State (2.09-9.91, 1.09-6.91 ACC) The biggest story in ACC territory has been the rise of the Coastal and the fall of the Atlantic. With Clemson taking a stumble, Florida State and Syracuse falling off a ledge, and Boston College falling off a cliff entirely, that's left nobody to be a standard-bearer and it's left a wide-open division. Louisville got hot with a 5-game winning streak that included wins over BC and Clemson, only for FSU to get their first ACC win against the Cardinals. The Tribune numbers still like Clemson despite the Louisville loss for a couple reasons: it's arguable whether or not they're the best team in the Atlantic, but they're easily the most likely to get to a 6-2 conference record. They've got 3 in the books, they haven't played Wake Forest, NC State, or Boston College, and they've already won their cross-division games. Florida State is their most challenging game left by far (63.1% for Clemson), whereas Louisville has Virginia (10.9% for Louisville) and Syracuse has Pittsburgh (6.3% for Syracuse). Keep in mind, though, that Louisville and Syracuse play each other in a coin-flip game--one of them will be knocked out in week 12 while the other will have a shot at the division crown if they run the table (or if Clemson stumbles). As an aside, Florida State is probably out of the race already with a 1-3 conference record, though they'd be competitive in a four-way 5-3 logjam with Louisville, Clemson, and Syracuse as long as Louisville beats Syracuse. Florida State (3-4) is one of three teams in the country that is under .500 but is projected to make a bowl game--having NC State, Wake Forest, and Miami on their schedule certainly helps out with that and I'd be surprised if they didn't make it. Clemson and Louisville are near-locks to go bowling at 5-2. Syracuse (3-3) needs to win one of their next two games (moderate underdogs against Notre Dame, slight favorites against Boston College) to have a good shot; win both and they'll be a near-lock. Boston College is in too deep a hole to climb out of, and neither of the Tobacco Road schools are in the conversation. ACC Coastal 1. Virginia (11.73-0.27, 7.73-0.27 ACC) 2. Pittsburgh (10.73-1.27, 6.73-1.27 ACC) 3. Duke (9.43-2.57, 5.43-2.57 ACC) 4. Virginia Tech (5.58-6.42, 3.58-4.42 ACC) 5. North Carolina (5.15-6.85, 3.1-4.9 ACC) 6. Miami (FL) (1.71-10.29, 1.45-6.55 ACC) 7. Georgia Tech (2.39-9.61, 1.38-6.62 ACC) One of the surprises when reviewing these numbers was Virginia's projected win total nearly matching Air Force's. But at 7-0 with their best opponents already in the dust, it would be a true upset if Virginia were to lose any of the remaining games on their schedule. Their road date with Louisville is their best chance to lose (and again, only a 10.9% chance of losing), but the Cavs are a real-deal team with a tiebreaker over Pittsburgh and Duke. They don't actually need to win that game to win the division. Meanwhile, Pitt actually ranks #1 in the ACC in Adjusted Margin of Victory, so they're by definition expected to win the remainder of their games as well. They're 79.9% favorites at Duke, they're on pace to be near-locks to win at Syracuse, and the remaining three teams they play--Miami, Georgia Tech, NC State--don't have a pulse. Duke should be able to finish 3rd even if they don't beat Pitt--their last four opponents are Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. They could see an upset in that stretch and still finish 9-3 (5-3), and that would still be an historic season for the program. Virginia, Pitt, and Duke have all clinched bowl bids. Miami and Georgia Tech will almost certainly be staying home, but Virginia Tech and North Carolina are still in limbo. The Hokies have a path to it: beat Georgia Tech, Miami, and either Duke or Boston College. But that's easier said than done considering that the BC game is a toss-up and they'd be 34.9% underdogs against the Blue Devils. North Carolina only needs two wins, but they also are about to hit the meat of their schedule: Virginia, Louisville, Vanderbilt, and Duke before they close against NC State. I'm not sure which of the two has the harder path. Our pick: Virginia (74.6%) over Clemson Big Ten East 1. Penn State (10.57-1.43, 8.57-0.43 Big Ten) 2. Michigan State (9.51-2.49, 6.51-2.49 Big Ten) 3. Michigan (9.21-2.79, 6.21-2.79 Big Ten) 4. Maryland (8.00-4.00, 5.00-4.00 Big Ten) 5. Ohio State (2.67-9.33, 2.67-6.33 Big Ten) 6. Indiana (3.29-8.71, 1.29-7.71 Big Ten) 7. Rutgers (1.75-10.25, 0.75-8.25 Big Ten) Penn State already has a leg up on the rest of the division with an unblemished 4-0 conference record. But Michigan, Michigan State, and Maryland aren't far behind right now (all 3-1) and have a legitimate shot at the division. Maryland's expected to fall behind as the season goes on, but this division is likely to come down to head-to-head and cross-division play. Michigan scored the first blow in the former, knocking Michigan State from the ranks of the undefeated. But the Wolverines' next four games are not enviable: at Maryland, Minnesota, at Penn State, at Wisconsin. Michigan State's two toughest games remaining are Maryland and Penn State at home. Penn State's already won two cross-division games and shouldn't have a problem with Nebraska, but they also don't face any of their division challengers until after week 12--and then they face all three in a row to close the season. If Michigan stumbles in their next four games (particularly against Penn State), then we could have a showdown for the division between Penn State and Michigan State in East Lansing during week 16--and Penn State is projected to be heavily favored at 89.3%. The bowl picture is simple: the top four teams have all clinched bowl spots, and the bottom three will not make it. Ohio State is on pace for their worst season ever, by far. They're 1-5 right now without having played Illinois, Michigan State, or Michigan. This will likely be their first-ever season in which they've been ineligible entirely for a bowl. Big Ten West 1. Purdue (10.92-1.08, 7.92-1.08 Big Ten) 2. Illinois (10.12-1.88, 7.12-1.88 Big Ten) 3. Iowa (7.26-4.74, 5.26-3.74 Big Ten) 4. Wisconsin (6.68-5.32, 4.68-4.32 Big Ten) 5. Minnesota (7.27-4.73, 4.27-4.73 Big Ten) 6. Nebraska (3.97-8.03, 2.23-6.77 Big Ten) 7. Northwestern (0.64-11.36, 0.53-8.48 Big Ten) The West is the deeper division in the Big Ten, with five teams over .500 and two projected 10-win teams. Purdue has been scoring like there's no tomorrow and Illinois's been defending like crazy--and their loss to Iowa looks less weird given how close Iowa played Penn State. The Illini are the only team currently within a game of the Boilermakers, and it's likely that the division will be decided between the two in West Lafayette in week 11. If Purdue wins that one (they have a 60.6% chance to do so), they would be two games up on the whole division with three games to play--and one of those is against Indiana. They would have to lose to both Minnesota and Iowa, and then lose the tiebreaker. If Illinois wins it, then they close with Ohio State, Indiana, Rutgers, and Northwestern--4 teams that have combined for 4 wins--and they could easily finish 8-1 with the tiebreaker over Purdue. Iowa or Minnesota would need to run the table and get lucky to even have a shot. Purdue and Illinois have clinched bowl bids. Minnesota is on the cusp at 5-2 and should be able to close it out against Northwestern--which is fortunate, because their final four games (Michigan, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin) are no gimmes. Iowa and Wisconsin are each sitting at 4-3. Both should reach a fifth win in week 10 (Iowa at Nebraska, Wisconsin at Indiana), and Iowa ought to be able to secure it in week 11 against Ohio State. They also play each other in week 13, so one of them will almost assuredly be in the postseason. Wisconsin also has Maryland week 11, Michigan week 15, and Minnesota week 16--none of which are gimmes, but none of which are unwinnable. Lastly, don't rule out 2-5 Nebraska! They have a huge uphill battle. They have to beat either Iowa or Penn State--if they lose both, they're mathematically eliminated. But after that, Ohio State, Miami, and Northwestern lurk. All of those are winnable. Don't bet on it without getting some nice odds, but don't rule it out either. Our pick: Penn State (75.1%) over Purdue Big XII Conference 1. West Virginia (8.81-3.19, 7.81-1.19 Big XII) 2. Kansas (7.18-4.82, 6.18-2.82 Big XII) 3. Oklahoma State (9.15-2.85, 6.15-2.85 Big XII) 4. TCU (6.65-5.35, 5.65-3.35 Big XII) 5. Baylor (6.07-5.93, 5.07-3.93 Big XII) 6. Texas Tech (7.12-4.88, 4.12-4.88 Big XII) 7. Texas (6.23-5.77, 3.23-5.77 Big XII) 8. Oklahoma (3.22-8.78, 3.22-5.78 Big XII) 9. Kansas State (5.61-6.39, 2.61-6.39 Big XII) 10. Iowa State (1.95-10.05, 0.95-8.05 Big XII) The Big XII is a logjam right now, and it's projected to remain a logjam by season's end: four teams are projected to win between 5.0 and 6.2 games in conference play to earn the right to play West Virginia in the conference title game. The Mountaineers are runaway conference favorites but not invulnerable ones--they're favored in every remaining individual game, but they're not favored to win all of them as a whole. That's okay, though: they'd have to hit a serious slump to do worse than the 7-2 record that would probably be good enough to get into the Big XII Championship Game. Whether any of the next four can hit 7-2 is the big question--otherwise, it'll likely come down to a tiebreaker at 6-3. The second highest-rated team by AMoV is already virtually eliminated from title contention--#29 Texas Tech is 1-3 and still hasn't played TCU or West Virginia. #33 Oklahoma State is next but loses the tiebreaker to #34 Kansas, who loses the tiebreaker to #43 TCU. And #46 Baylor is in the mix in theory, but their loss to Kansas State could keep them a game back and a game out. Meanwhile, the Big XII could get as many as 8 teams into bowl games--but 6 of them have a margin of error of 1.2 games or fewer. Oklahoma State's clinched a bowl bid at 6-1. West Virginia's 4-2 but should be able to make it without a problem. Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech are all 4-3 and have a good shot--Texas's lower projection is because they only have one of the Kansas State-Iowa State-Oklahoma trio remaining whereas the other two have two apiece. Baylor's 3-3 and on a razor's edge at this point. They don't have an easy path to 6 wins, but they don't have an impossible one either. (If they don't beat Oklahoma on Thursday, it does become impossible.) TCU is also 3-3, but they should be able to sweep Iowa State and Oklahoma and find one more win somewhere. Kansas State is the weird one on this list: they're not projected for a bowl game despite already being 5-2. They just haven't been able to move the Adjusted Margin of Victory needle at all, mainly because they've beaten bad teams close (which the stat is literally designed to punish). When they beat Baylor, they were 20-point underdogs. As of now, they're 32.3% underdogs against Oklahoma and 6%-12% underdogs in each game on the rest of their schedule. But being at 5.6 projected wins means that it's still reasonable to expect the Wildcats will pull one more upset this season--and one is all they need. Our pick: West Virginia (67.7%) over Kansas C-USA East 1. Western Kentucky (7.09-4.91, 7.09-0.91 C-USA) 2. Florida Atlantic (5.59-6.41, 5.59-2.41 C-USA) 3. Old Dominion (4.65-7.35, 4.65-3.35 C-USA) 4. Charlotte (3.19-8.81, 3.19-4.81 C-USA) 5. Marshall (3.14-8.86, 3.14-4.86 C-USA) 6. Middle Tennessee (3.08-8.92, 3.08-4.92 C-USA) 7. Florida International (1.47-10.53, 1.47-6.53 C-USA) With Marshall in freefall, the East was set to become a free-for-all. So far, Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic have risen out of the chaos, racing off to twin 3-0 starts in conference play. The numbers tend to favor Western Kentucky, who played Oklahoma State and East Carolina close and collected their three wins by an average of 12.3 points per win--though it doesn't have a way to account for FAU seeming to get hot over these last few weeks. They don't play each other until week 15 in Bowling Green, where the Hilltoppers are a 77.4% favorite. The division has a wide middle class, though, which means that either team (or both teams) could easily be tripped up once or twice before that game comes to pass. The Hilltoppers already have a win over Old Dominion, who is now Florida Atlantic's next-biggest remaining stumbling block in week 14. If the WKU-FAU game were played today, I'd take the Hilltoppers. But if we hit week 15 and that game's still a showdown for the division, it'll mean that the gap probably narrowed and Florida Atlantic would have a real shot at the crown. As for the bowl picture, the division winner will probably be a bowl team. Whoever finishes second might or might not join them--though I'd bet yes for now. Outside of that, the rest of the division will probably be staying home. C-USA West 1. Rice (7.53-4.47, 6.03-1.97 C-USA) 2. Southern Miss (6.68-5.32, 5.68-2.32 C-USA) 3. North Texas (6.28-5.72, 5.03-2.97 C-USA) 4. UTSA (5.77-6.23, 4.77-3.23 C-USA) 5. UTEP (3.59-8.41, 3.59-4.41 C-USA) 6. Louisiana Tech (1.76-10.24, 1.76-6.24 C-USA) 7. UAB (0.93-11.07, 0.93-7.08 C-USA) Rice's loss to Florida Atlantic, their first-ever C-USA loss, opened up the division. The Owls of Houston are no longer invulnerable, and they're not even technically in first place right now--that honor belongs to 2-0 UTSA. But UTSA, while not a nonfactor, is probably a longshot unless they knock off Southern Miss this week. The most likely contenders are Rice, Southern Miss, and North Texas. The Mean Green knocked off Southern Miss on the road a few weeks back, and they get Rice at home. However, they also cost themselves a real opportunity to take control of the division with their week 9 loss to FAU. Either way, the division will probably be decided between weeks 13 and 16, and it's going to hinge on Rice's performance. The Owls begin that stretch by hosting Southern Miss (57.4% Rice), follow it up with a road trip to North Texas (75.5% Rice), and close the season hosting UTSA (also 75.5% Rice). Until proven otherwise, this is Rice's division--the gap just isn't as wide as it used to be. The West could have as many as four bowl teams, but nobody's a shoo-in based on their record. Their top four projected teams are all either 4-3 or 3-4 right now, and any number of things could go wrong between now and end-of-season. I'd be surprised if 4-3 Rice and 4-3 North Texas didn't make it to a bowl. Southern Miss should be able to get there even if they lose to UTSA and Rice--but that's their whole margin of error. I think UTSA's a coin flip to get there from 3-3. Nobody else in the division has more than 1 win, so that's it. Our pick: Rice (60.6%) over Western Kentucky MAC East 1. Ohio (7.91-4.09, 6.41-1.59 MAC) 2. Miami (OH) (8.62-3.38, 4.88-3.12 MAC) 3. Buffalo (8.47-3.53, 4.47-3.53 MAC) 4. Akron (7.47-4.53, 4.11-3.89 MAC) 5. Kent State (5.02-6.98, 3.7-4.3 MAC) 6. Bowling Green (3.86-8.14, 1.9-6.1 MAC) With Miami and Akron's respective hot starts and Buffalo's hype drawing attention nationally, it's the Ohio Bobcats that project to win the MAC East after week 9. Why? Because they've been the one to knock off Buffalo (on the road) and Miami (at home), and the rest of the division's beaten up on itself. The Bobcats are 3-0 in conference play, and Akron (6-1, 3-1) is the only other team that hasn't already picked up two conference losses. Don't expect Ohio's undefeated run to last any longer since they play Toledo (22.6% for Ohio), but they'll almost certainly run their conference record to 6-1 against Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and Central Michigan before their season finale against Akron (60.6% for the Bobcats). Meanwhile, Akron still has Buffalo, Western Michigan, and Toledo left--their schedule accounts for their fourth-place projection. Miami can climb back in if they beat Buffalo (50-50) and proceed to run the table; Buffalo can do the same if they beat Miami (still 50-50) and Akron (61.9% for Buffalo). Either of them would have to make up what's effectively a three-loss deficit, though, since Ohio owns head-to-head with both. So it's safe to say that Ohio's in the driver's seat for now. As many as five MAC East teams could make a bowl game. Akron's already clinched one. The Miami-Buffalo winner will clinch one this week, and the loser will probably do so in a few weeks. Ohio will do it against a directional Michigan--unless they do it earlier by knocking off Arizona State (numbers say that's a 50-50 game, so keep an eye on that). Kent State doesn't have an easy path. They need to beat Northern Illinois and Central Michigan for sure. They also need to find a third win against Ohio, Ole Miss, or Miami (OH). Don't rule it out. But don't bet on it. MAC West 1. Western Michigan (10.15-1.85, 7.2-0.8 MAC) 2. Toledo (10.12-1.88, 7.12-0.88 MAC) 3. Ball State (3.04-8.96, 2.69-5.31 MAC) 4. Northern Illinois (3.33-8.67, 2.33-5.67 MAC) 5. Central Michigan (1.79-10.21, 1.79-6.21 MAC) 6. Eastern Michigan (1.67-10.33, 1.4-6.6 MAC) This division is simple: Unless Toledo manages to lose to both Ohio and Akron, then the winner of Western Michigan's week 13 visit to Toledo will be the division winner. These two teams are first and second in the MAC power rankings. They are far and away the best teams in the division. Heck, each team alone has more wins than the bottom four teams in the division combined. Western Michigan is ranked 1st in these projections because they see fewer opportunities for an upset outside of the Toledo game, but we give Toledo a 51.2% chance of winning this game--so we're actually picking the Rockets to win the division. The bowl picture is even simpler than the division picture: Toledo and Western Michigan will go bowling, and everyone else in the division will stay home. Our pick: Toledo (77.4%) over Ohio MWC Mountain 1. Air Force (11.85-0.15, 7.85-0.15 MWC) 2. Boise State (7.81-4.2, 5.81-2.2 MWC) 3. Utah State (5.32-6.68, 4.05-3.95 MWC) 4. Colorado State (7.02-4.98, 3.48-4.52 MWC) 5. New Mexico (4.55-7.45, 2.55-5.45 MWC) 6. Wyoming (0.23-11.77, 0.23-7.77 MWC) The only thing that could stop Air Force from wrapping up the division in the next couple of weeks is the fact that Nevada's their only conference game before week 15. They're 5-0 in conference play, which is as many conference wins as the entire rest of their division combined. Boise State's the only other team with 1 loss or fewer, and that 1 loss was to Air Force. The Falcons are massive favorites in every game but the Nevada game--and against the Wolf Pack, they're mere 14-point favorites, which translates to a 92.4% chance of winning. It would be very surprising if Air Force didn't finish 12-0, and we estimate a better than 92% probability that they run the table. Air Force is also the only team in the Mountain Division to clinch bowl eligibility, but as many as four other teams have a nonzero shot at it. Boise State and Colorado State are both 4-3 and both have Wyoming and Utah State still on the schedule. Boise also draws San Diego State while Colorado State gets New Mexico--these games are not guarantees, but they're an extra should-get opportunity if they get upset. Utah State and New Mexico have uphill battles. The Aggies are 3-4 and still have both San Jose State and Wyoming on the schedule. But even if they get those two wins, finding a 6th would take a big upset--they're much like Kansas State in that regard, but with a narrower path. New Mexico's 2-5 right now, but none of their remaining opponents are unbeatable except maybe Colorado State. Again, worth keeping an eye on but not worth betting on. MWC West 1. Hawaii (10.91-1.09, 7.38-0.62 MWC) 2. Nevada (7.15-4.85, 6.15-1.85 MWC) 3. Fresno State (6.56-5.44, 4.56-3.44 MWC) 4. San Diego State (5.53-6.47, 2.53-5.47 MWC) 5. San Jose State (3.86-8.14, 2.52-5.48 MWC) 6. UNLV (1.89-10.11, 0.89-7.11 MWC) The Rainbow Warriors! Hawaii's been partying like it's early 2015 with their 6-0 start, but the next three weeks will determine whether or not they're able to make it to the finish line whole this time. They shouldn't have a problem with UNLV. But after that, they hit the road to play Nevada, then play host to Fresno State. Hawaii, Nevada, and Fresno are the three remaining West teams undefeated in MWC play, and unsurprisingly they're the three big threats to win the division. This model sees Hawaii-Nevada as a pure toss-up, which is more of a problem for Nevada than for Hawaii. Why? Because Nevada's remaining schedule includes Air Force and road trips to Fresno State and Boise State. Hawaii gets Fresno at home and shouldn't be challenged by Wyoming or San Jose State. If Nevada can beat Hawaii, the Rainbow Warriors can still backdoor their way into the division title. If Hawaii wins, Nevada is probably out. As for Fresno State, an upset over Hawaii would go a long way for them--but as of now, Hawaii checks in as a 98.1% favorite in that game. Hawaii has clinched a bowl game, and Fresno State's low ceiling is mitigated by a high floor. They should be able to beat UNLV and either San Jose State or New Mexico to get to 6 (and frankly, they should get to 7). Nevada could earn a bowl game with a near-guarantee over UNLV and a tougher win over Boise, Fresno, or Hawaii. San Jose State's at 3-4 now, but they would have to win each of their next three games because they're not beating Hawaii or Fresno. San Diego State's on the edge. They can beat San Jose State and UNLV for sure, and they'll need to find a win over Boise State, New Mexico, or Air For--excuse me, over Boise State or New Mexico. Which means we'll know in the next two weeks if San Diego State can make a bowl. Our pick: Air Force (83.5%) over Hawaii Pac-12 North 1. Oregon (7.11-4.89, 7.11-1.89 Pac-12) 2. Stanford (7.81-4.19, 6.81-2.19 Pac-12) 3. Washington State (9.23-2.77, 6.73-2.27 Pac-12) 4. California (6.01-5.99, 3.01-5.99 Pac-12) 5. Washington (2.96-9.04, 2.96-6.04 Pac-12) 6. Oregon State (1.49-10.51, 0.24-8.76 Pac-12) The Pac-12 North race has to rank among the most compelling races of the remainder of the season. Oregon, left for dead after an 0-3 start in non-conference play, has won their last three in a row with an important win over Washington State. Stanford, one of the surprises of the season, is also undefeated in conference play and a 53.4% favorite to beat Oregon in week 10. And Wazzu, defending Pac-12 champion, sits back a game in the loss column with road games at USC (18.4% for Wazzu) and Stanford (60.6%) still on the calendar. The three teams are all projected within 0.4 wins of each other, and all are expected to pick up another loss or two along the way. That means lots of unpredictability! Why is Oregon favored to win the division if they're an underdog against 4-0 Stanford and also rated third in the division by AMoV? Two reasons: first, they're undefeated with a win over Washington State in the bank, whereas Stanford still has to play both contenders and Washington State just plain isn't undefeated. Second, Oregon dodges USC this season whereas Washington State and Stanford play them both on the road. Cross-division fights against UCLA (51.2% for Oregon) and Arizona State (60.6%) are potential tripping points for the Ducks--they're very mild favorites in both games, and could be underdogs on gameday. Stanford and Washington State aren't expected to face much resistance outside of each other and USC. Oregon has the highest ceiling but the lowest floor, and if they navigate this tightrope then the division can be theirs even without a win over Stanford. But if they stumble, then the Washington State-Stanford matchup in week 15 will decide the division--and as of now, that's just a bit better than a coin flip in Wazzu's favor. The bowl picture is essentially the same as the division picture, except with Cal in the mix as well. The Golden Bears need two wins, and Washington and Colorado are their best opportunities. They're favorites in both of those games, but those are not guarantees. We give them about a 75% chance of beating Washington and a 60% chance to beat Colorado--but if they drop one of those games, they still have a better-than-40% shot to beat UCLA and a 20% chance at upsetting Arizona. It's pretty much a coin flip whether they'll get in or not. Washington State has clinched a bowl game, and Stanford should clinch it with a win over one of the two Oregon schools. The Ducks are 3-3, so nothing's assured for them. If they lost to Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona State, they'd be one upset away from ineligibility--and given that they lost to North Carolina, an upset cannot be ruled out. But they could also wrap it up in their next four games with three wins over Stanford, Washington, UCLA, and Utah. Pac-12 South 1. USC (10.46-1.54, 8.46-0.54 Pac-12) 2. Arizona (8.04-3.96, 5.56-3.44 Pac-12) 3. UCLA (5.57-6.43, 4.57-4.43 Pac-12) 4. Arizona State (6.27-5.73, 4.23-4.77 Pac-12) 5. Colorado (6-6.01, 3.53-5.47 Pac-12) 6. Utah (1.09-10.91, 0.79-8.21 Pac-12) USC's quietly been humming along after their stunning loss to Notre Dame, and the result is that they're the projected runaway favorite in the Pac-12 South. Even with Washington State and Stanford still on the calendar, even with Cal on the road, UCLA on the road, and Arizona on the road, USC's projected to take the division by nearly 3 full games. They rank 3rd in the country in Adjusted Margin of Victory: they've had a below-average slate of opponents, but they've also hammered them by an average score of 40.2-14.3 and haven't won a game by fewer than 10 points. This team will be tested in the back half of their schedule, but they also have such a large cushion that they can afford to lose a game, maybe two, possibly three, and still win the division. They're already up two games in the loss column, nobody else in the division is particularly inspiring, and they'd have to have a huge downturn in order for any of that to change. And that would be so unlike USC to have a random midseason slump like that, wouldn't it? The bowl picture is more interesting. Nobody's locked in yet, though poor Utah's guaranteed to stay home. USC and Arizona are surefire at 5-2 with Utah still on the docket. Arizona State's at 4-3 with opportunities against Bowling Green, Colorado, and Ohio on the road--and they're surprisingly small favorites against all three with a 50-57% chance of winning each game. With Oregon and Arizona following after that, they probably need to win two of those three. Colorado's 3-3, and they range from mild favorites to mild underdogs in every single one of their remaining games. They're about a touchdown per game away from going 9-3, and a touchdown per game away from going 3-9. Fittingly, they settle almost exactly in the middle at 5.995-6.005. UCLA's sitting at 3-4, and they should be able to even up their record against Utah in week 11. With Oregon, Colorado, USC, and California coming up, they'll need to win two of those final four. Oregon is a hair under a toss-up at 48.8%, Colorado (65.1%) and California (57.4%) lean mildly for UCLA, and USC (5.0%) is probably a loss. Our pick: USC (91.4%) over Oregon SEC East 1. Vanderbilt (9.66-2.34, 5.84-2.16 SEC) 2. Georgia (9.17-2.83, 5.19-2.81 SEC) 3. Tennessee (8.03-3.97, 5.03-2.97 SEC) 4. Florida (8.21-3.79, 4.67-3.33 SEC) 5. Missouri (5.31-6.69, 3.31-4.69 SEC) 6. South Carolina (5.51-6.49, 2.6-5.4 SEC) 7. Kentucky (1.94-10.06, 0.94-7.06 SEC) One running theme so far is that teams with wins in the bank have a leg up on their competition (for good reason), and that remains true in a deep SEC East. With four teams with 1 loss in conference play, the only 4-1 team is the projected division leader. So far, we've seen very few games by the top four against each other--Georgia beat Vanderbilt who beat Florida, and that's it. Only Florida's had a date with fifth-projected Missouri so far (a Gator win); the Tigers will take on the other three in consecutive games from weeks 12-15. It's way too early to rule Missouri out given that they're only a game back in the loss column. They're going to need to start turning close losses into actual wins sooner rather than later if they want to make a run at the division, but I would bet on them spoiling at least one team's bid considering that they have a 32.3-38.1% chance to win each of those three big games. (South Carolina has a similar projected record to Missouri, but I don't think they have anywhere near the same ceiling.) The cross-division matchups are also going to play a huge role: Florida still has Texas A&M and LSU, Georgia still has Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt still has Alabama; at the same time, Missouri only has Arkansas left and Tennessee has already played both cross-division games. This division's going to play out very slowly, with week 10 being the only remaining week that doesn't feature an important head-to-head or cross-division matchup. Strap on in for the ride. The only real mystery in terms of bowl contention is whether Missouri or South Carolina will make it. Vanderbilt and Florida already have 6 wins, and Tennessee and Georgia have 5 wins plus Kentucky on the schedule. Georgia also has Georgia Tech, so if they go on a skid they still have a backstop; Tennessee doesn't have that luxury if the bottom falls out. But back to the Tigers and Gamecocks. The pair of 3-4 teams square off in week 11, a game in which Missouri is a 61.9% favorite. Missouri has more to lose than South Carolina does, because their remaining schedule's much harder. In fact, even with that win the Tigers would still need to beat Arkansas (65.1% Missouri) and score a mild upset over a top-three projected East team to go bowling. South Carolina will have Arkansas (51.2% SCar), Akron (64.1% SCar), and Kentucky (70.3% SCar) all in a row after the Missouri game, so they could plausibly win up to 7 games before they have to go to Clemson. South Carolina has the higher floor, even if Missouri has the higher ceiling. But it's very plausible that both teams could go bowling. SEC West 1. Auburn (11.01-0.99, 7.01-0.99 SEC) 2. Mississippi State (9.17-2.83, 6.17-1.83 SEC) 3. LSU (9.8-2.2, 5.8-2.2 SEC) 4. Alabama (7.82-4.18, 4.32-3.68 SEC) 5. Ole Miss (5.99-6.01, 2.31-5.69 SEC) 6. Arkansas (4.07-7.93, 2.07-5.93 SEC) 7. Texas A&M (2.65-9.35, 0.75-7.25 SEC) Last but not least, the ultracompetitive SEC West. Like its eastern counterpart, the West is a division that's going to be decided in stages over the final few weeks of the season. Alabama's win over LSU is keeping the Crimson Tide in the division race, though their subsequent losses to Tennessee and Mississippi State put them back two games in the loss column with road games against Vanderbilt (36.9%) and Auburn (17.4%) remaining on the schedule. The numbers just don't like Alabama, which ranks 31st in Adjusted Margin of Victory in a division where the top three teams are all in the top 10. And the numbers do like Auburn, but not so much as to make them more than a modest favorite. The Tigers will be favored to win out, but they're given a 64.1% chance to beat Mississippi State and just a 54.3% chance to knock off LSU. They can probably survive one loss, and they would even prefer for that loss to come to LSU because of the Bayou Bengals' loss to Bama. But if Auburn does stumble, then LSU and Mississippi State's matchup in Starkville in week 15 (54.3% LSU) could be decisive. Auburn has two significant advantages in its pocket: a 4-0 conference record in the bank (Mississippi State is 2-0, LSU is 4-1, Alabama is 3-2), and a cleared-out cross-division schedule. Mississippi State still has to go to Georgia (57.4% MSU), Alabama still has to go to Vanderbilt (63.1% Vanderbilt), and LSU still has to host Florida (79.9% LSU). I would expect Auburn to get out of this division, because they're scary good and still undefeated. But the SEC West has already bucked expectations plenty this year, and it would be even more surprising if the division suddenly stopped doing that. Auburn and LSU are already bowl-eligible, and 5-win Mississippi State and Alabama should both be able to wrap it up in their next game. Arkansas has a nonzero shot at a bowl game, but they're likely to fall to 2-6 after the Mississippi State game and would need to run the table against South Carolina (48.8% chance), Texas A&M (52.5%), Ole Miss (57.4%), and Missouri (34.9%) at that point. Texas A&M will be knocked out this week by Auburn, which leaves Ole Miss as the only remaining bowl drama in the division. The 4-3 Rebels will essentially have three opportunities: at Kentucky (57.4%), at Kent State (67.7%), or Arkansas at home (42.6%). Kentucky's a bellwether game--if they win it, they're probably good enough to beat Kent State. If they lose it, they're probably not good enough to beat Arkansas even if they do beat Kent State. Given that their projection is 5.99-6.01, the numbers think they're a definite maybe. Our pick: Auburn (73.8%) over Vanderbilt CFBHC Independents 1. Army (8.18-3.82) 2. Notre Dame (7.34-4.66) 2. BYU (6.64-5.36) 4. Georgia State (5.11-6.89) 5. UMass (0.01-12) As many as four of the five independent teams have a shot to go bowling. UMass isn't one of them: they range from a 24-point underdog to a 50.5-point underdog in their remaining games, so they're probably not going to win a game at all. Poor UMass. Notre Dame ought to join the ranks of the bowl-eligible, with a 4-3 record and status as favorites against Syracuse, Texas A&M, and Northwestern. Heck, they're even coin-flip bets against Washington State and Alabama. Georgia State is 3-4 and is a heavy favorite against both Eastern Michigan (73.8%) and UMass (>99.9%), but they're also heavy underdogs against Western Michigan (5%) and Auburn (<0.1%). Their bowl hopes rest almost entirely on a 32.3% shot at upsetting BYU in week 11. BYU would love to collect that win, follow it up with two wins over some combination of Utah State (73.0%), Cincinnati (65.1%), Oregon State (75.1%), or regular Utah (70.3%)--games in which they're significant but not overwhelming favorites. And to close out on a positive note, Army has already clinched a bowl bid, the first in program history.
  27. 38 points
    As you see, I'm resigning, The IRL shit that's been going on has been too much too handle and to juggle around. I rather not say what it actually is, I just wanted to let you guys know that thanks for everything, the good and bad memories and the help. You guys are amazing, all of you, thank you for this chance to join the community and be apart of this great place. I don't know when I'll be back, I just know I will, one day, I know this is kinda sappy but again thanks to everyone, keep up everything, Peace y'all.
  28. 37 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.6

    CFBHC v1.6 December 25th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.6.1.27 Notes: Thanks to all those who submitted feedback to Jumbo's committee and thanks especially to Jumbo for helping me process some of the information. As usual thanks to all those I asked to test various parts of this. General Info / Idea I'm continually working on improving recruiting and I've been playing with some major changes the last few weeks, thanks to some input and a whole lot of testing here is what I've started with for the 2023 season. This update is only an initial look at the changes and further updates over the next few weeks and months will add on to the changes. The big goal for 1.6 beyond this initial update will be to continue to work on recruiting and to create more transparency in the ability to see what coaching attributes are affecting teams. CFBHC Added visible eight visible coaching characteristics that affect the modifiers for your team that will be visible under your avatar in topic view. (I will need a new admin to help with this and an events moderator will be needed in the near future. Both can be the same person - just help delegating). Characteristics range from 0 to 20. 10 is average and any value above is a boost to that characteristic to your team and any below are a detriment. After each fully completed season you will be allowed to add 5 points to any category/categories but you must also deduct 2 in any category to represent your shifting coaching abilities. There will also likely be goals to meet for each category that let you get a boost at any time. (Score 50+ points to get a point in offense, etc - something like this). This will be fleshed out more in upcoming patches and may not take place until the 2024 season based on how I like the effects. I will likely also make this retroactive for past seasons. The goal here was to make it more obvious what you are good at as a coach and to let others, quickly/at-a-glance, see how they measure up against you. Offense - Buff to skill value of players on your offense, can exceed potential skillcap of players. Defense - Buff to skill value of players on your defense, can exceed potential skillcap of players. Special Teams - Buff to skill value of players on special teams, can exceed potential skillcap of players. Clock Management - Buff to how your team reacts in high-pressure situations. Discipline - Buff to rigidity of units under stress (and likely reduction in penalties). Youth Management - Buff to development of players in the off-season. Recruiting changes for the 2023 season. MAIN: All bonuses (in-state, border state, team needs, etc) now only apply to recruits up to 4.0 star rating. 4.5 and 5.0 star players are no longer bound to a state or region and do not receive any benefits that apply to "regular" recruits. Changed conference prestige from a behind the scenes value based on performance, media, and commissioner work to the following formula. The 2023 season conference points look at the stuff from the 2022 season and so on. Conference Points can be up to 7 additional per week. For each team with at least 10 wins you gain 1 point per week up to 3 total points. For each weekly media piece that's posted by the conference at least 14 of the 18 CFBHC weeks you gain 1 point per week up to 3 total points. If the conference completes an end of the season award voting and post (all conference team, conference OPOY, etc) they may gain an additional 3 points for doing that. Coaches visits may only be assigned to 4.5 and 5.0 star recruits. School visits and scholarships are unaffected. Base Recruiting Point/Visit Value Changes Border State changes (Note: with the above listed changes this only affects 4.0 star and below recruits) Pipeline states can now be any state and bonuses are applies as follows: Home State: 20% Border State: 18% Other State: 16% Recruiting Talent Changes (only changed talents are listed) Tier 1 Choices (1/2/3 wins) Strong Recruiter: +1/+2/+3 weekly recruiting points. School Spirit: +2/+3/+4 school visits. Well Traveled: +1/+2/+3 coaches visits. Tier 2 Choices (4/5/6 wins) Quality over Quantity: Your "Host Camp" state will allow 20%/22%/24% bonus on recruits instead of base 12%. (Host Camp states are in states where a team from the same conference is from and it cannot be the home state of the school.) Supreme Need: You received 2/3/4 additional "team needs" slots. Tier 3 Choices (7/8/9 wins) National Exposure: Automatically sign a 5 star JuCo recruit generated to fit a team need and checked with the coach prior to signing. You may reroll the recruit one time after checking. Tier 4 Choices (10/11/12 wins) Legacy Locks: Claim a 1.0/5.0 (or below) player from your home state/Claim a 2.0/5.0 (or below) player from your home state/Claim any player from your home state. Rising Star: Select three Star Players to receive 7/9/11 weekly points for free. Can be 4.5 or 5.0 star recruits. Strong Academics: Scholarships provide an immediate boost of 30/33/36 (instead of 20).
  29. 37 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.5g

    CFBHC v1.5g Game Engine Update October 26th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.5.7.52 Notes: Thanks to all those who helped testing and recommended stuff as usual. General Info / Idea I updated some offensive types to better use personnel. The idea is basically that full back has been phased out of a variety of offensive schemes to essentially not be used at all but to have a greater impact in smashmouth (and similar) offensive schemes. Some of this is in preperation for a big gameplan update at the end of the 2022 season that will provide a ton of much requested features. CFBHC and NFLHC * Redesigned higher run and higher pass gameplans to be a bit more effective by adding a "smart coaching" feature that will adapt your gameplan during the course of the game to account for being ahead or behind and shifting the run/pass percentage accordingly. * Full backs are now much more impactful in higher run gameplans but have been all but phased out of the passing gameplans that didn't need a fullback to begin with. * Higher passing gameplans will now auto switch to running out the clock more effectively than any previous version.
  30. 36 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.5a

    CFBHC v1.5a Differentiation of Conferences / Unique Experiences Update May 25th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.5.0.7 Notes: Thanks to all those who helped testing and recommended stuff as usual. I will be changing the release schedule for the 1.5 update this year a little bit. First of all, you guys can expect the big patches to happen and activate in the off-season between each season. So 1.5 will be after the 2021 season, 1.6 after the 2022 season, etc. This does not count for smaller balance changes. Additionally instead of revealing everything with one giant 1.5 patch note post there will be several component parts (a-...) that each reveal part of the patch. General Info / Idea I've come to the point with the sim that I'm fairly happy with the backbone of how stuff is running and the features that are offered so I would like to focus on providing interest to differentiate the experience for users depending on the teams they coach and provide objectives for users to meet that are not just "win a national championship". There are 130 teams and only one champion so the majority of users will never see a title. I want to provide those users with other fun objectives to fulfill and to give them a chance to prove their worth in a variety of other ways. This update will begin to address that. Except there to be more stuff to make each conference feel totally unique and provide different gameplay and goals depending on where you are playing. CFBHC * Added a second recruiting master list of fewer total players than the main master list that goes only to 4.0 skill (with very few 4.0s) that is only accessible to member schools from the following conferences: AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, Sun Belt, and Independents This list of players will be added after the main master list is completed and will be active for the 2022 season. Schools from the before listed schools will be able to put points into either the regular master list or the G5 master list as they please. The G5 Recruits list will work entirely the same as the other one. Total numbers of recruits was already reduced in the main list to make it more competitive for the top talents and to allow for this new G5 list for the smaller schools. With the exception of the restriction for which school have access to this list it will function exactly the same as the other. Points/Visits/etc are shared between the two. This list represents those players who would rather play at a smaller school than sit on the bench at a bigger program. While not common, this does happen. * In the recruiting interface, all schools that have ever put points on a player should be listed when hovering over the "+" at the end of the display. Not their point values, just the name of the schools (@inspiral).
  31. 36 points
    DangerZoneh

    Site Appreciation Thread

    I'm sure several of these have already been posted (hell I may have posted one too), but I'm feeling pretty sappy right now and wanted to say a bit. This site has been a major part of my life for years now, and it really means a lot to me. I know I haven't been on as much lately, and have started feeling more and more disconnected from this site, which is why I want to say something. Sorry for the massive incoming text. I joined CFBHC.com on January 25th, 2014. 971 days ago. In that time, I've spent over 272 days of time online. That's 28% of the time since I joined this site, I've been online. If you add in ~6 hours to sleep each day, that number jumps up to 37%. Over a 3rd of my waking time, I've spent on this site. It was pretty much by accident, as most people found the site. Rome put up a post on reddit about the site and it caught my eye. If I'm being completely honest, at first I didn't give it much thought because I kinda assumed I'd have to pay for it. After reading it, though, I was intrigued. More than that, I was intrigued by the prospect of taking over my beloved Horned Frogs (in hindsight, it may have been cool to take a team that I didn't have an emotional connection to, but I couldn't be happier where I am). I wavered for a bit, but ended up joining the site that night and going through and setting my depth chart and setting my gameplan. Round 3 of recruiting was ending that night, so the site was incredibly busy. For all of the coaches out there who weren't here for recruiting circa 2013-2015, it's hard to compare it to what we have today. I can remember in 2015, my hands were physically shaking as I read through the results. I remember spending a lot of time in the next couple of days thinking about what I wanted my team to look like and how I wanted to recruit. It was very exciting. A few days later, on Thursday night, I played my first game and got absolutely torched. Lost 42-21 to UCF. Trance Buchanan rand for 300 yards and 6 TDs. I maaaaaaay have played the pass. But in that moment, I was hooked. More personally, I found this site at a transitional point in my life. I didn't really have anything going on with my life. I don't know if I realized it at the time, either, but I couldn't have found this site at a more perfect time. I was a senior in high school, at the beginning of my last semester. Over the past 4 years in HS, my life had been defined by playing football. During the season, I'd go to school, work out in the morning, go to class, go to practice, repeat. On Friday nights I played my games and on Saturdays I watched college football with my mom for about 14 hours (still one of my favorite things to do). And I was happy with that. I had friends, especially on the football team, and it's not like I considered myself lonely, but at some level I was. I still saw all my friends during the school day, but afterwards? The only people I ever really saw was my family. I was never the one to go out with friends, mainly because I was exhausted on Friday nights and spent Saturday watching football. I say I found this site at the perfect time because I think that without it, I'd have only felt more and more lonely, especially now that the football season had just ended. But now? I had someone to talk to. Over the rest of the semester, I got closer and closer to the people on here and knew that no matter what, there was always someone to talk to in the shoutbox. I leaned on that a lot. There's a reason I have 85,000+ shouts. I'm not joking when I say that there were legitimately weeks at a time where I would not miss a single shout. I would be on the shoutbox until 1-2 AM, wake up for school and read the shoutbox while I'm getting ready, go to school and from there basically be on my laptop all day talking to people. After that, go home and repeat. It probably wasn't healthy, but it gave me something. That continued through the summer of 2014 (still honestly the golden era of CFBHC imo), and into fall. I'm not going to get into as many details here, but the fall semester of my freshman year of college was a rough time for me. Long story short, my dad was falsely accused of embezzlement, was placed under investigation, and lost his job - all while I'm not near my family to really be able to know what was happening. I didn't have anyone to talk to on campus about it and I kinda shut myself off from everyone except the site. I would sit by myself to eat and just be on my laptop talking to people here. I don't know what I would have done without CFBHC at that point and it scares me to think about. So from the bottom of my heart, I thank everyone here for helping me get through some of the toughest points in my life. All that being said, I'm in a much better place now. I have my fraternity brothers and other friends here on campus that I can confide in. The friends I've made here are still some of the closest friends I've ever had, guys like trey, aj, storm, Sophos, Franz, Cade, Dean, Dream, alien, rabid, Rome, Darman, neo, grv, taffy, and so so so many more that I can't mention them all. Even so, I've felt myself becoming more and more disconnected from the site. I don't spend every waking moment on it anymore, and I don't dominate the shoutbox as much as I used to. I think that's a good thing. I think that, while this site helped me so much, my connection to it became almost unhealthy and being on here in moderation is a much better option. I'm not leaving the site anytime soon, but I'm not sure I'll ever be as into it as I was before. And finally, I want to say a special thanks to Soluna for how much sheer effort he puts into making this site run. I know we've had our differences, but everything I've said and done has been because I want to see this site become the best version it could possibly be. You do an absolutely incredible job in so many aspects. You've created something incredible here, and I don't think people tell you that enough. You've taken a group of 60+ /r/cfb trolls and gotten them to care about players they only see as words on a screen. But from those words, players have personalities! From a statline, they've grown into something very real in the minds of the people on the site. I don't know if I've ever seen a place where imaginary players can be so real. So whenever you feel down about the day to day complaints and squabbles on this site, I want you to know that you've created an amazing community here and I have so much admiration and respect for both you and what you've done. I didn't really mean for this to be this long and personal, but I've been thinking for a long time about this and figured I'd tell my story and why this site and everyone on it is special to me. Sorry if this isn't the right time or place to do this. In all honesty, I find it hard to remember what I did on the internet before I found this place. It's been a long, bumpy road (certainly with more bumps to come), and at some times we may be at each others throats, but it's important to step back sometimes and remember how incredible this site is and the impact it's had on not just me but so many people. I've made friends on here that I'm going to have for life and I have to thank everyone here for that. Holy shit this was long. Sorry about that. tl;dr: CFBHC is amazing and I wouldn't have it any other way
  32. 36 points
    vida

    [2019] CFBHC Insider - August Issue

    With August here and a brief break in the simulations, we are back with the second issue of CFBHC Insider to get you through the next two weeks. With content put out by some of the best writers on the site, I invite you to kick back and enjoy this month's issue of CFBHC Insider. We have a lot of games to come in August, and we can look forward to more college football upsets! Be sure to catch next month's issue in the beginning week of every month. Thank you SageBow, Imposter, Bingo, npklemm, and all the other members that offered their help with this. I hope that you enjoy. For optimal viewing please follow the link below. Afterwards view in full screen.*It is mobile friendly.* August Issue of CFBHC Insider Need more? Check out the.. July Issue
  33. 36 points
    Welcome to 2016! WIth the anticipation of the standalone building and the stopping of development for the old sim we will begin the year with some major changes to a dated forum (along with a final release for the old sim, coming soon). The key thing I wanted to focus on for these sets of changes is the divide between people (such as myself) who would prefer much more hard core roleplaying and those that would prefer to keep it simple and not as serious. I have, for now, decided to bridge the site at some point in the middle. More roleplaying will be better and, while some roleplaying is going to be recommended, you can still get by not participating in this part of the site at all. The RP Subforum Conference commissioners will receive official conference accounts to post official conference news. Coaches will need to roleplay in comments and threads they create in this subreddit. They will receive benefits, benefits, bonuses, or traits attached to their account based on how they act in both coaching and personality. Acting negatively will cause consequences such as recruiting point losses, negative traits, and even coaching/bowl suspensions. Assistant coaches: You will be able to hire offensive and defensive coordinators that each come with their own unique traits to boost your program in ways that you want. If you are ever suspended for any reason you may designate a coordinator to take over for you. Traits: A post detailing possible traits, how to acquire them, and what they provide will be created in the near future. There will be an additional FAQ thread relating to this at the same time. General Discussions: These will be split, please keep RP-level discussion in this forum and remove smack talk to the non-RP forum. Realistic press conference: I have not quite formatted how these will work yet but there will be better media within the RP sub. Recruiting will provide more in depth news along with additional High School information. The non-RP Subforum Everything here will remain the old way along with non-RP press conferences and joke threads. I will detail each point more as I work on them, if you have any questions please PM this account. The old Soluna account will be reverted to regular member to deal with only personal sim gaming. Thanks!
  34. 36 points
    Soluna

    Welcome to CFBHC Conference-USA!

    Additionally, Navy will move to the AAC (schedules will need to be adjusted accordingly for OOC). Georgia State will move to Independent until the creation of the Sun Belt occurs. Also, Marshall, Rice, and North Texas will join the above 11 programs to create the new 14-team conference. This drops the AAC to 12 teams which means each division there will play 2 cross-division games. The open spot in the MWC (left by North Texas) will be replaced with: New divisions are as follows: AAC East: Cincinnati, Connecticut, East Carolina, South Florida, Temple, UCF AAC West: Houston, Memphis, Navy, Tulsa, SMU, Tulane MWC Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Wyoming MWC West: Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State, San Diego State, UNLV C-USA East: Charlotte, FIU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, WKU, Florida Atlantic C-USA West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, North Texas, Southern Miss, UTEP, UTSA, and UAB Also the following game report will be the official game report beginning with the first game of next season
  35. 35 points
    Soluna

    Merry Christmas

    Merry Christmas everyone, whether you celebrate today, tomorrow, or not at all. I hope everyone has a wonderful holidays.
  36. 35 points
  37. 35 points
    Welcome to Preseason Week 2.5 of Franz's Facts: MISCUES: INTERCEPTIONS AND FUMBLES AND DROPS, OH MY! This mid-week edition will focus on notable miscues through two and a half weeks of pre-season action. PREASEASON TOTALS (note: some teams have played a third game already***) Interceptions thrown Devin Conroy, TB - 5 Jon Wilson, KC - 4 Greg Cunningham, DEN - 4 Sean Hamilton, CAR - 4 Fumbles lost Greg Hadnot, SF - 2 Jayden Huff, DAL - 2 Kevin Muse, PHI - 2 Drops Dwayne Maddox, CHI - 3 Aaron Kotar, NYJ - 2 Billy Rodgers, CAR - 2 Brandon Lane, CIN - 2 Bruce Riley, NO - 2 Francisco Gibson, DAL - 2 James Montgomery, SF - 2 Nate Blue, MIN - 2 Robert Curtis, LAC - 2 Roy Davis, PHI - 2 Steve Warner, SEA - 2 Tommy Pottios, LAC - 2 Tyrus Wilson, ATL - 2 William Doherty, DEN - 2 William Johnson, TB - 2 Willie Hodge, LV - 2 Teams with multiple interception-throwing QBs *** Aaron Devereaux (2), Donald Caldwell (1), Nicholas Garland (1) *** Davis Oates (2), Charlie Walter (2) *** Luke Williams (2), Graham Burnett (1) Doug Kirby (2), Alex Rodgers (1) Cody Albright (2), Brian Vardell (1) Greg Shipp (1), Matteo Rook (1) Teams with at least four drops 5 5 5 5 *** 5 4 *** 4 4 *** 4 4 Teams with at least two lost fumbles *** 4 3 2 2 *** 2 2 2 Teams with 8+ INT thrown, fumbles lost, and drops *** 13 *** 9 *** 9 9 8 8 Teams with 5+ giveaways *** 8 *** 5 *** 5 5 Teams with 3+ players with a drop Steve Warner (2), Alex Kauffman (1), Evan Medley (1), Jim Umenyiora (1) *** Willie Hodge (2), Brian Becker (1), Michael Allen (1), Malcolm Davis (1) Aaron Kotar (2), Eugene Sanders (1), Marcus Ratterman (1), Phillip Fuller (1) Dwayne Maddox (3), Glenn Franckowiak (1), Obafemi Chamberlin (1) Robert Curtis (2), Tommy Pottios (2), Gerald Morrison (1) Billy Rodgers (2), Monte Jackson (1), Chip Johnson (1) Brandon Lane (2), Adrian Jankowski (1), Steven Maloney (1) *** Francisco Gibson (2), Benjamin Franklin (1), Michael Baxter (1) *** Bruce Riley (2), Patrick Lambert (1), Jamaal Brown-Sanderson (1) William Johnson (2), Anthony McCardell (1), James Richardson (1) Harry Whiteside (1), Jariel Rosario (1), Lindsey Thomas (1) For every like this post receives, $0.50 will be donated to the 2018 Annual Funding
  38. 35 points
    Have you ever felt like there just wasn't enough hours in the day and so much to do. I sure did. Lets take a quick glance at the hats I've been wearing: Head Football Coach for the Tennessee Volunteers General Manager for the Atlanta Falcons Owner and General Manager for the Nashville Predators Commissioner of the Southeastern Conference Son and Heir to the Bow Family Corporation There really is just too much going on in my life, and back in December, I just had a breakdown. I flew to Malaysia and stayed there for 3 weeks, trying to reorient myself and my life and where I wanted to go and be. I realized that I was just too busy to do any of my jobs correctly, and I had to do something to keep my sanity. After long discussions with the Atlanta Falcon front office and their great owner Acewulf, I now contemplate life after professional football. Yes, I am retiring from NFLHC. It's been an amazing 5 seasons, including a super bowl trip in 2015 with the then St. Louis Rams, the excitement of selecting Shawn Anderson and marketing him as the Ram's savior on offense, trading up to the #1 overall pick to snag Early Davis, and watching the Atlanta Falcons secure their first double digit win total in nearly 4 years today. I can say I've been very proud of what this team has accomplished, and I'm ecstatic at the futures of both the Falcons and the Rams, who I was heavily involved with in 3 prior years. That being said, I feel like I've set a standard for greatness. The Falcons have had two solid drafts, and I'm personally coming off a 2019 Executive of the Year award. As I've become more and more involved in my family's business, I've found myself unable to do the intense scouting and roster planning that I feel sets me apart from the other general managers in the league. Its not fair to this team, the ownership, and especially the fans for there GM to not be giving it his all. Will I return to NFLHC? Frankly the answer is no. I will not be accepting any job offers from any other organizations in the league. This is a permanent retirement from pro football as I try to focus on making the Vols, Preds, and SEC the best they can be. It's been a great ride in the pros, but all good things come to an end. SAGEBOW / CONTRIBUTOR
  39. 35 points
    Welcome back! For those who don't know, this series of articles is a deeper dive into college prospects for the upcoming 2020 NFLHC Draft. I'm going off of eligible players and conferences that have updated their stats. This column will only include those players who have already been rated. Let's get to it. Blow, Man For Bowman Washington Redskins (1-10-1): In their first three seasons of existence, Washington largely was mediocre, going 6-10, 9-7, and 8-8 in those first three seasons respectively. That is relative success for an expansion team and is largely due to the blockbuster Javier Fields trade made prior to the 2017 NFLHC Draft. In the end, I'm not sure either side won the deal as the Falcons used the #2 pick acquired in the trade on AJ Jefferson, who has not lived up to the expectations of that pick. Nonetheless, it allowed Washington to stay competitive enough in their first years of existence. However, a couple of seasons of relatively mediocre drafting - with the exception of C Matt Cole - and the Redskins no longer have the talent to compete with the rest of NFLHC. Combine that with serious regression from Fields: he had 30 TD / 11 INT in 2019 compared to 11 TD / 12 INT thus far in 2020, and Washington's disaster of a season doesn't seem all that surprising. Outside of Tanner Bowman, this does not seem like a particularly enticing QB class right now. With the relative devaluation of QB in the draft compared to their impact on a team the Redskins might not have to use their high first rounder on a QB. In fact, I'd recommend they didn't. This team is bereft of talent and with the dearth of overall talent entering the draft thus far, and they'd be hard pressed not to use it on a high overall early declaration or perhaps North Carolina's DE Josiah Harden. Back to the QB position, Fields' serious regression has to be concerning, and when backup Yancey Musgrave got a chance to start he didn't look particularly good either. Depending on who enters, the Redskins could draft and develop a player. Someone like Nicholas Garland from Stanford or David Oates from Washington State could be intriguing options, or if Washington is inclined to develop a scrambler Pitt's Grant McConnell could also be an option. Fields' contract is expiring and I don't see Washington paying him, so we'll likely see Musgrave, someone brought in in a trade, or a free agent signing starting in the capital next year. Dallas' Taylor Rodriguez could be an intriguing short-term option, but either way, a new solution is needed. The Skins drafted Ricardo Reed in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft. He had a solid rookie year with 4.35 YPC and 8 TD in 16 starts, but has regressed this year with 3.92 YPC, just 4 TD, and 7 fumbles (4 lost) so far. However, this is a terrible RB class and with other pressing needs Washington should probably give Reed at least another year and look in another direction to fill needs. Receivers-wise, Washington's corps was terrible going into the 2020 draft, but Sam Hiller-Weeden was picked in the first round and he's been pretty good for a rookie whose QB is terrible as he's caught nearly half of the TDs Fields has thrown. Outside of that, the Redskins WR corps is a flaming dumpster fire and needs to be upgraded ASAP, as only SHW and the injury-prone Patrick Burke are on roster for 2021. A free agent signing and a draft pick is not out of the question. Someone like Kansas' Malcolm Davis could be an intriguing pick at the top of the 2nd round - with 5 TD already this season he could be a nice redzone complement to Hiller-Weeden's chain-moving abilities. Another depth pick at WR, such as USF's Claudio Howard, could bring a nice speed element out of the slot. Washington also has 2 solid TEs on roster, though only James Ware comes back and he's more of a blocker than a receiver (he has 0 TD this season). There is depth in this TE class so someone could potentially be added. Washington's offensive line is probably the most stable part of the team - unfortunately however they are a bottom 5 line by rating this season, a regression from the average line they were in 2019. As the line has stayed relatively healthy overall, it's clear that upgrades are needed. The interior seems solid with Matt Cole being a Pro Bowl level player, Clayton Williams being an acceptable level starter, and rookie 2nd round pick Nick Ramos filling it out. The blame should likely partially be put on the rookie guard and the older tackles; the tackles should probably be upgraded. OTs are not heavily valued commodities in the draft at this juncture and so Washington may be able to land a solid plug-and-play tackle like Virginia's Shawuan Holsey at the top of the 2nd round. As they obtained a rookie 75 overall tackle in the 7th round of the last draft only one should probably be drafted, and in the 2nd-3rd round if Washington is leaning that way. Oklahoma State's OT/OG Beckett Miller may be in consideration at Washington's high first round pick as well. Defensively, Washington is below average. On the line, Fred Romanowski has a lower sack total this year but he's still an imposing force up the middle; Mike Hill is a solid player who can both rush the passer for 6-7 sacks a year while stopping the run effectively; Kevin Nitschke is just a mediocre DT2; and rookie DE Kenneth Stanford is a JAG who has contributed nothing this year, though he's only recently been filling in for Dennis Abdullah. Washington could consider DE Josiah Harden if they're in position to draft him, but with heavy drop-off after Harden and UNT's Javier Grady with the next highest player being just a 76 overall, that's a move that could play out in Washington's favor. Abdullah is acceptable as a starter but his contract is expiring and a player like Harden is a clear upgrade; but if Harden or Grady are not drafted Washington probably will not draft one except in the late rounds as depth. Nitschke could be upgraded as backup DT but it shouldn't be a huge priority. Washington's linebackers are also extremely mediocre. OLBs Craig Davis and Anthony Brown are both uninspiring players who have done much nothing much this year, and neither are extremely impressive in coverage or against the run to make up for it. Depth at OLB could be possible in the mid-rounds but otherwise I don't see Washington addressing the position for another year or two as both are under contract for another year. Washington is weak at ILB as 2019 7th rounder Nicholas Haskell starts. Washington starts rookie 3rd rounder Raheem Burkett as will ILB. Haskell has been OK but he's been more of a stat accumulator than impact player, while Burkett is yet to appear on the statsheet. ILB is weak in this class (although most positions are weak) but if Washington falls in love with one of the top guys they could be added as all 3 (Illinois' Jamal Harley, Arizona State's Garrett Holiday, and Penn State's Christopher Clayton) have the potential to be available at Washington's 2nd round pick and would be likely upgrades over Haskell. The Redskins secondary is definitely a weak point. CB1 Michael Barber is a solid coverage player but doesn't offer much turnover-wise, but he is a nice piece to have as CB is so valued. CB2 Joe Gammon is an acceptable nickel but probably shouldn't be relied upon as a major starter at this point. He was brought in for a 4th round pick in the 2020 draft and does have another year under contract, so he'll probably start another year, but his coverage isn't great and he doesn't bring much turnover-wise either. The depth is a weak point and Washington should see if they can land a developmental nickel type player, like Temple's Christopher Anthony, in the mid-to-late rounds in 2021. Washington's safeties have combined for 2 INT and 1 FF this year but the team has actually been above average defending the pass and with only a couple of impact safeties appearing in this class the Redskins could potentially draft for depth but nothing more, holding it off until next year unless FS Patrick Parks walks after his contract expiration. Rookie K Thomas McMahan has been OK and only Penn State's AK McGowan would be an upgrade from this draft class, and the Redskins would be better off building depth at offensive and defensive positions with mid and late round picks. P John Collins is good and fully guaranteed for the next 2 years so the team is fine there. The Redskins do need to infuse talent at some key positions like QB, WR, OT, ILB, and CB. It might take a couple of seasons and a solution at QB before this team is back into contention. Also in the hunt: Los Angeles Chargers (1-11) Chicago Bears (2-10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) Buffalo Bills (3-9) New England Patriots (3-9) New York Giants (3-9) Minnesota Vikings (3-9) Let's Play Matchmaker This section will look at some of the top talent in college football and match those prospects up with teams that have a dire need at the position. New England Patriots: DT Hudson Adam, West Virginia The Patriots rush defense has been serious problem this season - they are the worst team in the league by 12 YPG. This is definitely partially due to starting Rich Moore at NT. He is known for being a great pass rusher and terrible run defender, but as he only has 2.5 sacks this year he's not bringing that proper value anymore. Bringing in someone who can actually stop the run at NT could help the defense seriously improve. The team did just sign him to a 3 year, 30 million extension with the first 2 years fully guaranteed (??????) but they could potentially switch to a 4-3 or trade Moore to a 4-3 team with this pick as someone who can stop the run up the middle is sorely needed. Adam (6-0, 310) got some Heisman hype leading up to this season after his 12-sack junior year. He only has 3 sacks thus far in 2020, but that's still pretty solid up the middle. NFLHC isn't typically a huge fan of short DTs but Adam has incredibly burst for a man of his size and will almost certainly be a top 20 pick. He can rush the passer effectively but also holds his own against the run, often breaking through double teams to bring down ball carriers up the middle, almost like a Rich Moore who can actually stop the run. Detroit Lions: CB Robert Bleeker, Arkansas The Lions secondary, since they're being coached by SlinkyJr, is usually expected to be pretty good. Unfortunately, this year the team ranks 24th in pass defense. While part of that is playing in a pass-happy division with Brian Vardell, Norris Brooksheer, and Jason Johnson all passing the ball at an above average rate, the Loins have neglected their secondary needs for a while. Keyshawn Thompson has been having a rough season by his standards but part of that is not having anyone else to help him. While I'm sure SlinkyJr would love to land Michigan State's Kordell McKinnon, that seems unrealistic for where Detroit is likely to finish. Adding Bleeker and even playing him in the slot for a year could be a good option and allow Slinky to develop a high-picked CB for the first time in 6 drafts. Bleeker (5-11, 188) is a JUCO transfer to Arkansas. He had a lot of D1 offers coming out of high school but couldn't qualify academically. He reportedly got his act together his local school Arkansas Baptist College after a couple of years before transferring to Arkansas and winning the CB1 job immediately. Bleeker does have an interception thus far this year, but he'll likely need to show a bit more to solidify himself as a first round pick in the upcoming draft. But with its current weakness he could easily fall to Detroit and slide into a nice situation. Minnesota Vikings: WR Luke Cobb, Florida State The Vikings are not having a good year. After trading face of the franchise Chester Henson, the team's offense has seriously struggled. The team is last in rush yards by almost 100 and Brian Vardell is posting the worst season of his entire career with 16 TD / 8 INT and an 85 passer rating. Part of that is definitely due to a weak receiving corps, with former first round pick Sonny Beckett proving to be more of a complementary piece. Wayne Wegert is terrible, Mohamed Charles is mediocre, and 2020 4th rounder Jacory Kessler is still learning to be a receiver. Instead of waiting on Kessler to develop, Minnesota can just go after Cobb. Cobb (6-5, 198) is one of the most hyped high school recruits we've seen. A so-called "unicorn," Cobb is a tall fast receiver who can beat you down the field, win jump balls in the end zone, and even play as a target move-the-chains player if needed. He's looking like he'll be a top pick in the upcoming draft. In a normal draft he probably wouldn't be the best receiver, but he is having a great year (just look at the UMass game where he put up 280 yards and 4 TD), has a great track record with 1100+ yards and 10+ TDs each of the last two years, and will probably be a good NFL receiver; and at this point Brian Vardell could use that. That should be Minnesota's priority at this point. Dallas Cowboys: SS Cameron Whitney, Connecticut The Cowboys are having a renaissance after a disappointing season last year. The team picked QB Graham Burnett at #7 and will likely start him in 2021. The team is surprisingly vulnerable in some spots; they're starting a 4th year 75 overall SS who has not put up any stats. The team's pass defense has been top 5 this year, but picking a player like Whitney could improve the run defense as well with his ability to play in the box. Whitney (6-2, 183) is a tall, lanky safety who can cover the TE and make plays when needed. He famously had a 3-interception game last season against Louisiana Tech which won him a Player of the Week award. A 2019 JUCO transfer, Whitney is a great coverage safety who can also hit hard though he does need to improve his tackling ability. He has the potential to be chosen above where Dallas picks, as he is a potential game-changer at the position; but if he does fall to them he's a great fit for their needs and defense as a great coverage safety who can play man to compliment rookie FS Emmanuel Slade could play well and make Dallas' defense even better in 2021. Buffalo Bills: TE Jonathan Greer, Virginia The Bills, after blowing a 3-game AFC East lead to finish a last-place 9-7 in 2019, have regressed to 3-9 thus far this year. Their starting QB a month ago is now playing WR2 and a highly paid, highly rated defensive line is only 11th in sacks thus far this year. It's been overall disappointing for Buffalo. While the team does have some minor needs, TE is an important position where the Bills are completely bereft of talent. They can remedy this by taking Greer (6-2, 217), the top rated TE in this class who nevertheless will likely be available in the 2nd round. The 2019 first-team all-ACC TE has been steadily improving as a receiver since he's been on campus, as he came in as a converted high school offensive lineman (coach npklemm thought 217 pounds was too small to play offensive tackle). With 51 catches for 707 yards and 8 TD in 2019 and being on pace to eclipse that in 2020, Greer could offer an upgrade as a blocker at TE while also being a target for whatever the Bills define as a QB. Oakland Raiders: OLB Caleb McNamara, Vanderbilt With QB Nick Hall injured, the Raiders are in danger of missing the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. Of course, the AFC is so terrible that even at 6-6 the Raiders are right in the thick of contention. The Raiders did defeat Miami with Charlie Walter at QB, but a setback against the Ravens this week and Hall's likely absence for at least 2 more games this season makes it an uphill battle for the Raiders especially with so many teams around the same record. Both of the Raiders starting OLBs have been good this year, with Sergio Miller being solid with both sacks and turnovers; nonetheless, a player like McNamara could make the defense even better. McNamara (6-2, 217) is mostly known for his coverage ability, but in that respect he'd be an upgrade over Baumgartner. With 2 sacks this year, he's also shown an improved ability to get after the quarterback thus far. There's also a Vanderbilt connection as McNamara played with former Raiders first round pick David Pennington for 2 seasons. alienufo could look to continue the pipeline and also have some immediate chemistry between the two. Team Draft Report In this section, we take a deeper look at a specific team and where they stand in regards to the 2021 NFLHC Draft. Cincinnati Bengals: I wanted to cover the Bengals for this section as they're in one of the more intriguing positions in NFLHC. The AFC North is garbage, but the teams are all almost equally as bad. Cincy is currently in last at 5-7, but all other teams are 6-6 so the team could still potentially qualify for the playoffs. 6 of the highest 7 paid players on the team are expiring, and with some of them probably not being brought back into 2021 this team is going to see a larger amount of turnover than most of NFLHC usually does. There's probably some cap flexibility to go after free agents as well. With most impact players needing to be re-signed, how the Bengals play their re-signings will also factor into how they play their draft. Joel King, who the Bengals traded a massive amount of picks up to get before almost immediately regretting it and trading down a few spots while still nabbing him, has at the very least made progress this year. He went from 56.6% completion, 13 TD / 14 INT, and a 70.13 rating as a rookie to 62.13% completion, 22 TD / 17 INT, and an 87.55 rating this year. The picks are definitely a serious problem, though, and a likely massive reason for improvement are the respective trades for Rodney Montgomery and Adrian Jankowski which turned the Bengals receiving corps from one of the worst to a top 5 corps. King still does not look comfortable and his mistakes often compound on themselves; when he stays calm and solid in a game it seems to extend until he makes a mistake when it starts piling on. With the Bengals needing to make a decision on his 5th-year option and future as a starter next offseason, I'd assume he needs to at least make progress to the mid-90s in QB rating and cut down on the picks in order to have a certain long-term future in Cincinnati. Both Cincinnati backups are OK but also expiring, so if they can't re-sign either someone may not to be brought in in the draft. Ron Thomas is a really good RB who has stayed healthy and looked good even when Cincy made him handle a significantly larger workload than he should have. Cincy's only current backup is Charles Rocha who should probably be on a practice squad. This draft doesn't have too much at RB but if I was Cincinnati I'd at least be looking for a backup or someone who can handle 3rd down duties. Boston College's Zahir Watts is in a similar mold to Thomas and has been relatively productive; I think he could be a nice fit as a backup to spell a few snaps and come in in case Thomas starts to break down or pick up some injuries. He could potentially play 3rd down back as well if needed. FB Tom Edwards is good and under contract for another two years so the team is fine there. The team's top 3 receivers are really good; Montgomery and Jankowski are a great tandem and Greg Newman is a solid slot receiver. There's no depth however and both Montgomery and Newman see their contracts expire this offseason. Montgomery just rejected an extension offer from the Bengals and was reportedly insulted with how much the team lowballed him; the team likely wants to bring him back but if they can't Newman could see an offer as well. If Montgomery does come back, though, Newman will walk. Brandon Lane is an OK 4th receiver but the team could probably add someone in the mid-rounds as a developmental player. Southern Miss' Randall Johnson is an intriguing option; while he doesn't catch many TD he can pick up yards and move the chains which is what the Bengals would mostly want from a depth receiver. Cincy only rosters one full-time TE, Tony DeMarco, and his contract expires this offseason. He wasn't offered at mid-season, but I could see the team attempting to bring him back. Even if so a TE needs to be brought in during the draft as depth at the very least. Texas' Steven Maloney and Air Force's Cayden Reese are intriguing options as tertiary options for King, as both have shown to be solid receivers when needed. The Bengals' o-line is highly rated but there could be issues if OT Blake Pile walks this offseason. He's playing on the transition tag this year and just rejected an extension saying that he wants more money. Losing a 94 OT would be a serious issue for any team, and I wouldn't want to worsen King's protection right now; I'd back up the truck for him if I was the Bengals. The line is mostly fine outside of that; depth could be used along the line and a new RT will probably be needed in a year or two but it's performing acceptably for the most part. Defensively, Brett Bailey is good (and just signed an extension!), although he did have more sacks in one game last year than he does all of this year combined (4 in one game vs 3.5 this year). EJ McQuarters is an OK DE2. Both will come back next season so unless Cincinnati opts for Josiah Harden or Javier Grady the team is fine at the position, and there's acceptable depth currently. The team is extremely weak at DT and although Bill Kelly is owed 3 million guaranteed next year he's been benched for underperformance. The team does run a 3-4 so someone like Hudson Adam could fit in at nose; Stanford's Emmanuel Serrano or LSU's Cameron Street could probably immediately start for the Bengals and will most likely be available in the 2nd and 3rd round respectively. At linebacker, Nick Upshaw just signed an extension. That said, he's going into his 8th season and will almost certainly start declining in the next season or two. Still, he's still a decent starter (though he has just one statsheet game with 5 tackles this year) and since he signed an extension the Bengals likely aren't looking to replace him. Germaine Dixon has been really good at OLB this year, and is under contract for two more years. Will linebacker Daniel Barnes has played really well as a rookie in 2019 and has been on par with that this year. He went +3 this past offseason as well, and as he's under contract another two years he's locked up a starting spot for a while. Other OLB starter Mike Hulsey is just an OK player. He could easily be replaced if the Bengals like a player in the draft. The team mostly needs depth at mike ILB as Upshaw could start becoming injury prone and Richard Pitts is a questionable backup. The team also has absolutely no quality depth at OLB and so at least one pick should be spent in the mid-rounds on someone who can come in and play backup at bare minimum. You can't be having 66s and 65s as primary backups at this point for the most part. The team's corner situation is intriguing. DJ Reed has not been good as the team has been exposed against any team with a good WR1. He's been one of the league's worst CBs this year though he's not exactly in a fair situation. Blake Turner has been solid in his rookie year as CB2 as he has 2 picks (both returned for TDs) and has been playing admirably in coverage for such a raw corner. The team traded for Aaron Stiles this season in exchange for what boils down to a 3rd round pick. He's playing nickel in Cincinnati now and has been alright; he probably needs another year of development before he's really ready to start. He's still really young, but his development is definitely boom-or-bust. Those 3 are an acceptable trio for now developmentally and with the overvaluation of CBs in the draft I'd ignore the position for now. At FS, Jim Sisemore definitely won't be paid $10 million by Cincinnati again next year. With just 2 picks combined the last 2 years and a declining overall, Sisemore is declining to the point where he won't be starting for much longer. The team drafted Kenneth Schwartz in 2019 and he's developed alright behind the scenes. I expect him to start in 2021. The team might draft a backup, but this draft is weak at FS and so they might be better off just signing a free agent backup FS. 2017 2nd round pick SS Calvin Celestin has pretty much plateaued at 81 overall and with his contract expiring the team will likely let him walk unless he's wiling to come back at a cheap price point. Rookie Jose Leon was drafted to develop a year and potentially start next year; Cincinnati might also be looking at UConn's Cameron Whitney or TTU's Cameron Riley as SS of the future if the value is right. Leon is the most likely 2021 starter, however. K Justin Nielsen, a 5th round pick last year, is >90% on field goals this year and has been solid. Cincinnati's punting, however, is 30th in the league this year and the team should look to move on from current P Tommy Brown. He has $1 million guaranteed next year, but the team saves $1 million by cutting him. Just cutting him and drafting or signing a cheaper P is probably worth it as he has declined in his average ranking amongst punters the last couple of years. Oregon State's Patrick Wolff or USC's Giuseppe Bernstein are both options. The Bengals could re-structure their team in a million different ways. It could look very similar or very different in only 2 seasons, depending on who they want to re-sign and who wants to re-sign with them. With their division an easy one to take over with correct development, the team could be the kings of the AFC North in 2 seasons or a dumpster fire, and I don't see too much in-between.
  40. 35 points
    Soluna

    Recruiting v2.1

    These changes are all compromises from the nearly 100 suggestions I received from you guys in three request threads, several private feedback threads, and random polling I did via PM. Please understand that we cannot have 100% realism but I'm trying to balance and instill some sort of regional differentiation to make recruiting different for each school. If you do not agree with my changes that's fine but I cannot please everyone. Thank you to the 10 or so members who helped feedback these changes and please know, I do read your suggestions - everyones, even if you think I hate you.
  41. 35 points
    Soluna

    Event #16: Sammy Grey Shines

    NO ONE MAY SUBMIT A RESPONSE. Sammy Grey, recently selected by the Bills with the 179th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, has had an extremely successful pre-season. Grey has really shone throughout training camp and has impressed local reporters, pundits, and most importantly, the fans. "I think we found a diamond in the rough," says James, 23, of Buffalo. Grey recently started a charity benefiting children with Multiple Sclerosis. "My younger brother Zeke has MS and I know how tough it can be on a family. I hope that this charity grows with my career in the NFL and we can improve the lives of at least a couple of family's in Western New York." The Bills have been extremely impressed with all the work Grey has put in this offseason both on the field and off the field and expect him to become a long-term starter in the NFL. Grey gains +5% starting fitness, the Bills gain +2% media standing, and Grey improves his overall by 1. His new player line is: FS Sammy Grey 5-10 214 R Washington State [Man Coverage] 78
  42. 35 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.3

    CFBHC v1.3 February 14th, 2017 Pre-Release v1.3.84 GENERAL The two week inactivity period will be replaced with a court composed of three elected judges that may decide at their discretion or at the request of a user that a member is not participating in the site at the level which they should be. *Do this however you want and I will run elections. If you want to have people run under the promise of a stricter policy versus a looser policy feel free to form parties! Members have a term limit of 4 terms and elections will be at the beginning of every season (including before 2020) or if a spot on the court is needed to be filled. Gameplay Changes *Increased fumbling by a 15% for RBs, 15% for QBs, 35% for WRs. *Rescaled tackling ability as a function of overall rating for SSs. *Decreased catching ability as a function of overall rating for WRs and TEs. *Decreased the impact of kicking power for accuracy kickers. *Decreased the impact of kicking accuracy for power kickers. *Added Jr. and III to the name generation. Bug Fixes *Fixed a calculation bug for the fitness of OGs. *Fixed an issue where kickers were not accurately using their attributes for extra points. NFLHC Coordinators and Coaching Clinics – Offensive and Defensive Coordinators can be hired and will provide player, team, or progression bonuses. *Coordinators may be hired as a head coach. They have preprogrammed selection of game plan options that they will adapt to the opponent each week while mitigating the scheme change penalty. *Coaching clinics will add permanent traits to users on the site. Clinics will be scheduled during the offseason onto a calendar similar to the rookie minicamps (see below). Player Character – Player’s now have a built-in character that can be good (charity events) or bad (player discipline). Events – Randomized events that can affect player characteristics, add flavor to injury, personal discipline, coaching, etc. *Events include but are not limited to: player discipline, news, interviews, PFF rankings, coaching tiers, fan opinions, etc. Referees – Referees impart their flavor on a game and may lead to more or less penalized games. Ejections have been added and will be noted in the game report. Position change requests – Each offseason a thread will allow teams to request a positional change for one or more of their players (the limit being each player may only transition once per year). *Once a player has switched position they will progress according to their new position. Rookie Minicamps – Beginning with 2021 NFLHC season there will be an offseason calendar that each team must fill out. Each team will receive a limited number of work out days and a schedule of positional minicamps to choose from (some overlapping!). Players participating in these mini camps will received published information about performance. Depth Chart changes – New features and requirements. *Inactive – Add at the tail end of your NFLHC depth chart (where redshirts are in CFBHC). These are players that will be completely held out of a game (will not travel) and may be used for character issues, injuries, or “dog house” situations. *Players placed on the inactive list will respond accordingly. Injured players will use the time to recover, character issue players may respond positively or negatively through events, and “dog house” situations may encourage the player to play harder (or less if he dislikes the coach!). Improved Stats – Added several more detailed statistics to game reports including drops, missed field goal information, and labeling players who have blocked kicks. *Drops (DRP) – receptions that were dropped by receiver miscues. *Missed FG Information – wide left, wide right, hit the upright, etc. *Blocked kicks – Consistent information as to who blocked it. *Sack totals – Removed sack yardage lost from the running box for QBs and added a new section that shows sacks given up by each team. *Reworked game report to be more inline with NFL.com format and added “long” categories for rushing and receiving. Example below, // would be replaced with an actual table cell border: K. Davis // 15/27 // 270 // 3 // 1 // 36 A. Sowell // 16 // 107 // 1 // 1/0 // 18 R. Robinson // 6(1) // 88 // 1 // 0/0 // 26 Categories as follows: QB Name // COMP/ATT // YDS // TD // INT // LG RB Name // ATT // YDS // TD // FUM/LOST // LG WR Name // REC(DRPS) // YDS // TD // FUM/LOST // LG CFBHC Bowl Selection Chairmen – Each conference will elect a Bowl Selection Chairman (BSC) that may be different from their conference commissioner. Every BSC must be available after the final week of CFBHC games to meet with Soluna and the other BSCs in a conference call to select bowl participants according to their conference’s rules. *Further information about BSC elections will be posted in the near future. Other *Added UMass Minutemen.
  43. 35 points
    Soluna

    [2020] NFLHC Positional Conversions

    WR DeSean Jenkins 6-4 195 2 Wake Forest [Speed] 64
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  45. 35 points
    With the playoffs just a few minutes from beginning here is a quick preview for your wildcard weekend! Here are the previews for today's teams! Picks: Saturday, April 23rd, 2015 #3 Detroit Lions #5 Miami Dolphins Sunday, April 24th, 2015 #5 St. Louis Rams #3 Denver Broncos Sorry I didn't have much time to put this together, I wanted a couple articles written up, but ended up working a little longer than I expect last night. Enjoy the games today!
  46. 35 points
  47. 34 points
    Soluna

    Soluna's Hurricane Info

    I consider myself fairly experienced with Hurricanes. In 2004, I took two direct NE eyewall hits from Hurricane's Frances and Jeanne. In 2016 I dealt with strong winds from Hurricane Matthew and last year I took a direct hit from Irma in Orlando. Here are some tips if you're going to ride it out: Food: Expect to not have power for seven plus days. If you get power back sooner then great! If not, you're prepared. Don't mess around with this - restaurants and stores may not be able to open sooner, especially in more remote places. Buy a ton of easy to consume stuff like canned soup, pop tarts, chips, whatever. Within like 48 hours you're REALLY going to miss warm food so I would suggest buying a camping stove or having a grill. Lighting: Again, if you don't have power for a week or more you're going to need more lighting than just a flashlight. I have a bunch of "taplights" from target that I've hung in my hallways and near the bathroom and kitchen. They're battery powered and can be used to navigate in the total dark. Candles are great but you can't fall asleep with candles on (or shouldn't fall asleep with candles on). A great tip with the flashlight is to place a jug of water in the middle of the room and touch the flashlight against the jug, the water will distribute the light relatively evenly in the whole room. Water: Buy A LOT of water, jugs/bottles/whatever. MOST IMPORTANTLY, fill your bathtub with water that you can use to either: flush the toilet (this will be the only way you have plumbing), wash your face, or take a bucket shower, if you have multiple bathtubs fill BOTH. Fridge: Put your fridge and freezer on the lowest setting a day or two before the storm arrives, if you only open it once or twice a day it'll keep moderately cool for like 3-4 days at that point, especially if you keep ice in the compartment. This is a REALLY GREAT tip that helped me keep some drinks cool 3 or so days into my Irma power outage. Cooling: Best tip I've ever gotten for keeping cool during a power outage with no generator. Buy a shit load of aluminum foil and tape it to the inside of windows and sliding glass doors. It'll reflect the sun during the day and significantly cool your house. With no A/C I can get up to 90 F at my place, during Irma it never went over 80 F because of the foil. 80 still sucks but you arent sweating. How to ride it out: Honestly pretend you're preparing for a zombie onslaught. I propped couches and tables up against big windows/sliding glass doors. DO NOT stay or sleep near these during the storm. I have experience with wood pieces and bricks and such making it through walls in all three storms. Find the innermost, safe, room (maybe a bathroom or closet) and make a makeshift shelter with a mattress propped over you at an angle. If something does happen to your roof the mattress will absorb most of the problems and you'll have a little safe space triangle between the wall and mattress. Make sure you buy plastic bins and put EVERYTHING you would need to start a new life in there in case your house falls apart. Put your passport, birth certificate, banking information, family pictures, and anything else you hold dear to you in plastic bags in a sealed plastic box. One of my best friends lost his roof 5 hours into the 48 hours of Frances and lost pretty much everything except his plastic box. Other tips The worst part of the storm is the eyewall, in the middle you may have the eye pass over you, THE STORM IS NOT OVER, DO NOT GO OUTSIDE. Generally the NE or E eyewall is the worst in the Atlantic. Water kills: Most of the deaths caused from Hurricanes are not from the direct wind (either gusting or sustained) it's almost entirely from flooding with Hurricane-spawned tornadoes a secondary. Get a storm radio. You won't have much fun during the storm anyway and a storm radio will keep you updated ESPECIALLY if tornadoes form in your area. Hurricanes can spawn hundreds of smaller tornadoes and one of my worst memories during Frances was constantly hearing "A REPORTED TORNADO HAS TOUCHED DOWN IN (HOMETOWN) AND IS HEADING NE AT 21 MPH". You WANT to know this kind of stuff. You will not be able to tell if a tornado is coming until it's way too late. The pressure changes, especially near the eye, can be extreme. Your ears will pop and you may feel a migraine. If you have a large sliding glass door you may see it physicall flex upwards of 2-3 inches in and out like it's breathing as the pressure continues to drops. It will not generally shatter but it can appear really disturbing. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE, YOU CAN'T CHANGE ANY OF THE DAMAGE THAT'S HAPPENING. IT'S NOT WORTH YOUR SAFETY. STAY IN YOUR SAFE ROOM AND RIDE IT OUT UNTIL YOU SEE SUN. The local government will generally announce curfews on the radio after the storm and will tell you where post-storm water and gas collection points will be set up. This is mostly for my own sanity but I would really recommend getting a Hurricane tracking map. If you also have a storm radio they'll announce the coordinates of the eye every hour or so and you can track where the storm is heading and whether or not you are on the side that's getting better or worse. This can be really helpful in especially slow-moving or unpredictable storms. Get something for your mental health: play a board game, read a book, just do something else other than worry about the storm while it's over you. You're going to hear a ton of creaking and stuff cracking, don't worry about it - you're house can flex. Distract yourself from every little noise or you'll go insane.
  48. 34 points
    The CFBHC Member of the Month Spotlight is an award created to recognize and thank members of the CFBHC community for their supportive efforts to the site's development and future endeavors. Coaches can submit a vote for any member on the sidebar each month and a deserving member of the month will be awarded the first one of the next month. Members of the month will be eligible to receive a CFBHC goodie box once the design has been established and the member is willing to forward me their address. October 2017: Jieret, Western Michigan Broncos/ Denver Broncos Jieret joined CFBHC on July 5, 2016, and quickly established himself as a cornerstone of the community. Known for his willingness to help, his ability to moderate, and his steadfast attitude in helping the community grow has made him deserving of the first MotM award. Whether taking it upon himself to run the NHLHC statbook or fill in with statistical/wiki/or feedback work when few others did, Jieret always outdoes himself in his efforts toward the site and for that I am forever thankful. Without helpful, friendly, and determined members like him this community would just be me and my 38 alts; functioning but without a heart. It may be overwhelming for some newer users to integrate into the established community but Jieret has shown that it's possible. Only a year after he's joined it would feel that if he were to ever be lost to us he'd at least be one of those users the shoutbox would say "wtf happened to him". Whether that means anything I don't know but Jieret you are the man. Jieret received 14 votes for Member of the Month for October 2017.
  49. 34 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.3c

    CFBHC v1.3c September 1st, 2017 Pre-Release v1.3.1.34 Notes: As usual thanks to the members who helped test this - there weren't many this time because I got this pumped out quickly with my new additional time. I appreciate the thoughts and input you guys have made in your private feedback forum threads. This patch applied to this week's games. General * Reverted aggressiveness to the previous iteration. Teams in both NFLHC and CFBHC are much more likely to go for 2 if it helps them advance their lead or try to catch up. * Added a new game report via smckenz. * Added TFL, LNG (for RBs), and PD. LNG is available this week, TFL and PD will be available for the 2021 season. NFLHC * Fixed an issue with full back blocking schemes in the pistol formation. * Fixed use percentages of 4th and 5th receivers in pass heavy offenses. * Fixed a minor error with the gameplan parser. * Fixed a rotational player issue with the gameplan system. * Fixed an issue with using non-K/P players at kicking related positions. * Fixed a minor calculation error with total and partial tackles. * Fixed a minor error with automated training plan implementations from previous seasons.
  50. 34 points
    Saturday afternoon begins the first College Gameday of the 2018 football year, our hosts will be taking a look at college football on a national scale. Florida State vs Ohio State will be a hot topic of discussion come Saturday, here are some stats to help you get up to speed with this out of conference matchup. First let's take a look at each of the team's resumes. QB - RB Comparison: QB Benjamin Schuler, FSU, 123 of 176 for 1718 yards, 13 TD, 2 INT QB Cody Albright, OSU, 108 of 157 for 1480 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT RB Elijah Harden, FSU, 94 for 628 yards, 8 TD RB Moussa Goode, OSU, 111 for 590 yards, 4 TD Tune in this Saturday (1/30/16) afternoon at 4:30PM EST (3:30 CST) for College Gameday!
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