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Tiger! Tiger! Burning Bright

#1 Auburn wins the championship with a decisive win over #6 TCU, becoming the kings of the 10th CFBHC season.

Pack Up The Playoffs

The Packers steamrolled the playoffs, defeating the Dolphins by 20 to win Super Bowl IX; this is their second title in three seasons.

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Showing content with the highest reputation since 04/24/2018 in all areas

  1. 56 points
    Soluna

    2021 End-of-Season Message

    Everyone, We're about to conclude our 9th season as a site for the CFB simulation. It hasn't been entirely sunshine this season but yet we're still around. We're recovering, relearning, and we narrowed our scope to restoration in the last three months, yet I am still happy with what we have and our outlook towards next season. I'm thankful to those of you who stayed through the problems and hope that you want to stay longer - I have plenty planned for the years ahead and I hope you are interested enough to keep an eye on it. You guys that reached out to me the last few months have helped far more than you can imagine and you know who you are. Let's keep building and working together. I know I nag for activity. I know I complain in the shoutbox. I'm passionate for my creation but I don't want that getting in the way of your enjoyment here. If you think that I'm angry or overreacting you're probably right; we're all human, we all make mistakes. All of you guys are awesome - you all helped me build this and everyone should be equally proud. If you've contributed something to this site whether it be a google sheet, a media piece, or a discussion thread, then you are the reason I made this. This next season will be a special one and I'll be sure to constantly have special events going on; it's not often that you create something that makes it to a 10th anniversary (even if the anniversary is not entirely truthful to the years truly spent building this!). 2022 will be a celebration of you guys. Expect extra games (the anniversary tournament included), new updates, and more information than any previous year. Congratulations to whoever wins tonight and whoever locks up the 2021 NFL title in a week's time. Soluna
  2. 47 points
    Soluna

    New Administrator Announcement

    All, I'd like to welcome @Jieret to the administrative staff. I've been working with some guidance from @Jumbo on how to lessen my workload while simultaneously improving the site and continuing with forward development of features that you guys have requested. Jieret will be in charge of everything relating to Transfers in CFBHC. Development of how transfers will work and will be improved will be nearly at his discretion moving forward (other than some initial guidance I will give him). He will be in charge of every facet of it. My goal is to create a Transfer Portal (so hot right now) that shows you who is likely to transfer, what their goals in transferring are, and to provide a more engaging way of dealing with transfers (and one that's far less random). With Jieret's addition I would also like to firm up the administrative contingent as more will be added in the future. As I work on delegating more stuff out I will appoint users to fill specific niches in this cabinet. As a reminder the others are: @alienufo - NFLHC Administrator @inspiral - Interface/Recruiting Administrator @Jumbo - Community Outreach Administrator @Jieret - CFBHC Transfers Administrator Also special shoutout to @Rome. While not technically an administrator, his work with the coaching skills and scheduling the past few years has been superb and helped significantly. He's basically Assistant to the Administrator. Soluna
  3. 45 points
    Soluna

    [CFBHC] Coaching Feats

    Coaching Feats are a secondary portion of your coaching skills that allow you to active what is essentially a special ability at various times throughout the season (if it occurs during a game it is automated). Every four full years of accredited coaching you've had allows you to select one additional feat up to a maximum of five. If you get to five you will have to replace one or choose not to take any more. Coaching feats will be displayed on your sidebar coaching profile. Coaching Feat Database (more to come - stay tuned) ______'s Rival: Certain schools increase your motivation and you impart that feeling onto your players. Effect: Select another school. Each game played against that school your players receive a 10% skill boost for the duration of any game against them. Conditions: You can select this feat multiple times and must declare a school each time you select it. Cannot change the school until a new version of this feat is taken but then can replace the old one if you wanted to remove it. Focused Discipline: Flavor: Structure and the right mentality underlie the ethos of a winning team and you're primary make is the establishment of this culture. Effect: Gain +3 to discipline as long as you have this feat. Conditions: Discipline cannot increase beyond 20. Local Connections Flavor: You have a good level of influence with your local high school and the graduating players dream of signing on with you. Effect: Prior to the first week of recruiting you gain a choice of two random players from one of your local high schools that isn't listed on the recruiting board. The other player not selected is then added to the board. Minimum potential for the randomly generated players is 3.5. No upper limit but percentage chance of generation is the same as regular recruits. Conditions: None. Miracle Adjustments: Flavor: You are adept at analyzing your opponents and your quick mind has the ability to rectify a horrendous first half. Effect: When down by two or more touchdowns at the half all of your players get a 10% boost in skill for the remainder of the game. Own the Youth, Gain the Future: Flavor: From the beginning you realized how powerful tutoring the youngest was and you pride yourself on shared experience. Effect: Gain +3 to youth management as long as you have this feat. Conditions: Youth management cannot increase beyond 20. Seeing Red Flavor: You have a good background understanding of refereeing and have the wit to make quick decisions when necessary. Effect: Challenge flags thrown by you are 100% more likely to result in a successful challenge. (I will likely begin listing how often you have challenged and how often you've been successful) Strength in Growth: Flavor: Players can become so much more than what we witness in high school. You know how to build up the ones that have shown flashes and they trust you for it. Effect: Each year, prior to progressions, you may select one player to get to increase their potential skill 0.5 points permanently. Conditions: Any player can only ever be selected once in his career for this feat. Teacher of the Game: Flavor: You have an exceptional understanding of the fundamentals and are skilled in passing it on to those you spend the most time with. Effect: Each year, prior to progressions, you may select three players to get a guaranteed 1.5 skill progression. Conditions: Does not affect potential skill, skill cannot increase beyond the potential skill. Time is not wasted...: Flavor: Your eyes are locked on the clock and your mind established in the moment. You are a master manipulator of the game. Effect: Gain +3 to clock management as long as you have this feat. Conditions: Clock management cannot increase beyond 20. Unexpected Flexibility Flavor: You've spent your years of coaching honing your ability to adapt on the fly and have the ability to instill new schemes to your players on even the shortest of timescales. Effect: Your scheme change penalty is reduces by 50%. Conditions: Cannot stack with any other scheme change penalty reductions. If this is active 50% is the lowest you can go. Weathering the Storm: Flavor: Rain, Snow, Sleet; none of them have ever bothered you. Your players observe your persistence through all manner of weather and the team is stronger for it. Effect: Your players suffer a 50% reduced penalty for each type of weather compared to the default value for that weather.
  4. 45 points
    Soluna

    Admin Newsletter: September, 2018

    Soluna's Admin Newsletter No. 2 | September 2018 I was mostly successful in my predictions from the last newsletter. I was delayed on development and progressions by two weeks of IRL work that sent me to Savannah so I apologize for the delays that has caused. I successfully completed the migration of front offices to the Clubs feature. Upcoming Events NFLHC draft completes. NFLHC Rookie Minicamps, Training Camp, and Pre-Season. CFBHC progressions complete. CFBHC Spring Camps (new feature) will be announced officially and will likely take place (depends on NFL scheduling a little). What am I doing There's a big Owner Update coming out that I've been working on for the last few weeks. More will be announced in the coming days but the update will essentially give Owners a way to "make money" and shoot for the Hall of Fame in this new, unique, way. The goal will be to provide Owners with a true goal and to make team money feels like it means more than it currently does. Additionally this will tie in with marketing, stadium expansion and construction, and fan attendance. I really want to work in Marketing stuff but I'm not sure how to do it so that's holding me up a bit. What can you expect in the near future? Progression of your team (if it has not occured). NFLHC Offseason wraps up NFLHC Pre-Season CFBHC Spring Camp events Soluna
  5. 44 points
    Soluna

    Admin Newsletter: August, 2018

    Soluna's Admin Newsletter No. 1 | August 2018 Based on some discussion I had with Jumbo I figure to post a monthly newsletter like this to discuss what I'm currently working on, what the site is facing in the next month, and what I'm hopeful of adding in the coming weeks (if anything at all). It'll just be a quick run-down of stuff you guys can expect to possibly hear about or see. Upcoming Events NFLHC off-season continuation and all aspects that come with that. The draft will take place at some point in August and training camp will likely follow within a week or two after the draft takes place. CFBHC in August will be dedicated entirely to progressions and give inspiral a chance to update the interface with the new recruiting regulations. CFBHC can't begin until NFLHC Week #1 proper so it gives me some time to do some progressions under less rushed conditions. What am I doing My main target right now is to make a variety of things on the forum less dependent on me to make it happen. The biggest change coming will be that all NFLHC front offices, CFBHC conferences, and certain "societies" like the Hall of Fame, storm's weekly "tv" discussion thread stuff, and such will be moved to use the Clubs feature. Owners of the NFL teams, Commissioners of the conferences, and leaders of the societies will be able to allow access to members themselves without needing my input and teams will have way more freedom in using their personal forum. In addition this makes it significantly easier for me to find and update things like re-signings threads or UDFA threads. I've attached an image of what the clubs will essentially look like. They will all use the same layout (at least initially). I'm working on some small recruiting changes (mostly numbers under the hood) that will be a part of the 2022 recruiting cycle but will be out in the next few weeks, What can you expect in the near future? Migration of your NFL team/ CFB conference/etc to a Club page. Progression of your team (if it has not occured). The NFLHC Draft (it will be live and you are welcome to take part in any way you see fit, watching, chatting, drafting, whatever!) Free Agency (NFL) Soluna
  6. 38 points
    HAFFnHAFF

    PhillyFan3: Gone But Not Forgotten

    The year was 2016. A brilliant new mind joined the CFB ranks. @Phillyfan3's radical approach to offense and commitment to a 2 QB system was poised to change the entire landscape of CFBHC, years before offensive geniuses like Sean McVay and Doug Pederson revolutionized the real life NFL. Phillyfan3 was years ahead of his time. And yet, often when someone is years ahead of their time, they aren't received well. After applying and being rejected for 3 jobs Phillyfan would go on his epic rant stating, "JESUS CHRIST I expect a retracted statement and to be approved." Ultimately he would get his chance, as the Utah State Aggies took a shot on the intriguing candidate. In the days that followed there was mass confusion on the site as Depth Chart-Gate rocked everyone to their core. Bleach Report was able to obtain some of the source documentation from this time. As Phillyfan's struggles continued, many coaches reached out offering a helping hand that was slapped away. Some even attempted to create a depth chart to be copied, but to no avail. As the Utah State football program shutdown continued, the entire nation watched on the edge of their seats. As the days stretched into weeks, patience began to run thin and Phillyfan was ultimately fired, escorted from his office by security, and disappeared into the sunset never to be heard from again. Yes, Phillyfan was gone, but he would never be forgotten. He was inducted into the CFBHC Hall of Infamy, and will forever be chronicled in our memes, remembered for his 2 QB system, and his catchphrase, "interesting..." despite never actually coaching a game. Take my Depth Chart Two years later, CFBHC held an important midterm election. And one of the amendments voted on was the legalization of 2 QB offensive systems. It passed with an overwhelming 83% majority, thus paving the road back to glory for Phillyfan. Once again CFBHC waited on Phillyfan with baited breath. But this time the days turned into weeks which turned into months and years but Phillyfan was not to return. The once forsaken coach was gone for good, never to be seen nor heard from again... OR WAS HE? Flash forward to the 2022 NFL draft. With the 30th pick in the 3rd round the Miami Dolphins selected Steven Gore, QB, from UCLA despite having perennial MVP Brian Brown at QB. Then, early in the season, the Dolphins employed a 2 QB system bringing Steven Gore in to close out games with enough frequency that he was given the nickname, "The Closer." Gore leads the NFL in passer rating among all qualifying QBs* and teammate Brian Brown ranks 3rd. The Dolphins are utilizing a 2 QB system and it is setting the league on fire. No one thought much of it until Bleach Report received an anonymous tip last week that @smckenz3 is actually an alt for @Phillyfan3. As we began to dig into this story we started to question everything we thought we already knew. Bleach Report now strongly suspects that smckenz is indeed the former disgraced coach known as Phillyfan. Not quite convinced? Ask yourself this question: Have you ever seen Phillyfan and smckenz in the same room? *Qualifying QBs must have attempted 10+ passes UPDATE: We reached out to smckenz for an official comment on this breaking story and received this response:
  7. 37 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.6

    CFBHC v1.6 December 25th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.6.1.27 Notes: Thanks to all those who submitted feedback to Jumbo's committee and thanks especially to Jumbo for helping me process some of the information. As usual thanks to all those I asked to test various parts of this. General Info / Idea I'm continually working on improving recruiting and I've been playing with some major changes the last few weeks, thanks to some input and a whole lot of testing here is what I've started with for the 2023 season. This update is only an initial look at the changes and further updates over the next few weeks and months will add on to the changes. The big goal for 1.6 beyond this initial update will be to continue to work on recruiting and to create more transparency in the ability to see what coaching attributes are affecting teams. CFBHC Added visible eight visible coaching characteristics that affect the modifiers for your team that will be visible under your avatar in topic view. (I will need a new admin to help with this and an events moderator will be needed in the near future. Both can be the same person - just help delegating). Characteristics range from 0 to 20. 10 is average and any value above is a boost to that characteristic to your team and any below are a detriment. After each fully completed season you will be allowed to add 5 points to any category/categories but you must also deduct 2 in any category to represent your shifting coaching abilities. There will also likely be goals to meet for each category that let you get a boost at any time. (Score 50+ points to get a point in offense, etc - something like this). This will be fleshed out more in upcoming patches and may not take place until the 2024 season based on how I like the effects. I will likely also make this retroactive for past seasons. The goal here was to make it more obvious what you are good at as a coach and to let others, quickly/at-a-glance, see how they measure up against you. Offense - Buff to skill value of players on your offense, can exceed potential skillcap of players. Defense - Buff to skill value of players on your defense, can exceed potential skillcap of players. Special Teams - Buff to skill value of players on special teams, can exceed potential skillcap of players. Clock Management - Buff to how your team reacts in high-pressure situations. Discipline - Buff to rigidity of units under stress (and likely reduction in penalties). Youth Management - Buff to development of players in the off-season. Recruiting changes for the 2023 season. MAIN: All bonuses (in-state, border state, team needs, etc) now only apply to recruits up to 4.0 star rating. 4.5 and 5.0 star players are no longer bound to a state or region and do not receive any benefits that apply to "regular" recruits. Changed conference prestige from a behind the scenes value based on performance, media, and commissioner work to the following formula. The 2023 season conference points look at the stuff from the 2022 season and so on. Conference Points can be up to 7 additional per week. For each team with at least 10 wins you gain 1 point per week up to 3 total points. For each weekly media piece that's posted by the conference at least 14 of the 18 CFBHC weeks you gain 1 point per week up to 3 total points. If the conference completes an end of the season award voting and post (all conference team, conference OPOY, etc) they may gain an additional 3 points for doing that. Coaches visits may only be assigned to 4.5 and 5.0 star recruits. School visits and scholarships are unaffected. Base Recruiting Point/Visit Value Changes Border State changes (Note: with the above listed changes this only affects 4.0 star and below recruits) Pipeline states can now be any state and bonuses are applies as follows: Home State: 20% Border State: 18% Other State: 16% Recruiting Talent Changes (only changed talents are listed) Tier 1 Choices (1/2/3 wins) Strong Recruiter: +1/+2/+3 weekly recruiting points. School Spirit: +2/+3/+4 school visits. Well Traveled: +1/+2/+3 coaches visits. Tier 2 Choices (4/5/6 wins) Quality over Quantity: Your "Host Camp" state will allow 20%/22%/24% bonus on recruits instead of base 12%. (Host Camp states are in states where a team from the same conference is from and it cannot be the home state of the school.) Supreme Need: You received 2/3/4 additional "team needs" slots. Tier 3 Choices (7/8/9 wins) National Exposure: Automatically sign a 5 star JuCo recruit generated to fit a team need and checked with the coach prior to signing. You may reroll the recruit one time after checking. Tier 4 Choices (10/11/12 wins) Legacy Locks: Claim a 1.0/5.0 (or below) player from your home state/Claim a 2.0/5.0 (or below) player from your home state/Claim any player from your home state. Rising Star: Select three Star Players to receive 7/9/11 weekly points for free. Can be 4.5 or 5.0 star recruits. Strong Academics: Scholarships provide an immediate boost of 30/33/36 (instead of 20).
  8. 37 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.5g

    CFBHC v1.5g Game Engine Update October 26th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.5.7.52 Notes: Thanks to all those who helped testing and recommended stuff as usual. General Info / Idea I updated some offensive types to better use personnel. The idea is basically that full back has been phased out of a variety of offensive schemes to essentially not be used at all but to have a greater impact in smashmouth (and similar) offensive schemes. Some of this is in preperation for a big gameplan update at the end of the 2022 season that will provide a ton of much requested features. CFBHC and NFLHC * Redesigned higher run and higher pass gameplans to be a bit more effective by adding a "smart coaching" feature that will adapt your gameplan during the course of the game to account for being ahead or behind and shifting the run/pass percentage accordingly. * Full backs are now much more impactful in higher run gameplans but have been all but phased out of the passing gameplans that didn't need a fullback to begin with. * Higher passing gameplans will now auto switch to running out the clock more effectively than any previous version.
  9. 36 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.5a

    CFBHC v1.5a Differentiation of Conferences / Unique Experiences Update May 25th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.5.0.7 Notes: Thanks to all those who helped testing and recommended stuff as usual. I will be changing the release schedule for the 1.5 update this year a little bit. First of all, you guys can expect the big patches to happen and activate in the off-season between each season. So 1.5 will be after the 2021 season, 1.6 after the 2022 season, etc. This does not count for smaller balance changes. Additionally instead of revealing everything with one giant 1.5 patch note post there will be several component parts (a-...) that each reveal part of the patch. General Info / Idea I've come to the point with the sim that I'm fairly happy with the backbone of how stuff is running and the features that are offered so I would like to focus on providing interest to differentiate the experience for users depending on the teams they coach and provide objectives for users to meet that are not just "win a national championship". There are 130 teams and only one champion so the majority of users will never see a title. I want to provide those users with other fun objectives to fulfill and to give them a chance to prove their worth in a variety of other ways. This update will begin to address that. Except there to be more stuff to make each conference feel totally unique and provide different gameplay and goals depending on where you are playing. CFBHC * Added a second recruiting master list of fewer total players than the main master list that goes only to 4.0 skill (with very few 4.0s) that is only accessible to member schools from the following conferences: AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, Sun Belt, and Independents This list of players will be added after the main master list is completed and will be active for the 2022 season. Schools from the before listed schools will be able to put points into either the regular master list or the G5 master list as they please. The G5 Recruits list will work entirely the same as the other one. Total numbers of recruits was already reduced in the main list to make it more competitive for the top talents and to allow for this new G5 list for the smaller schools. With the exception of the restriction for which school have access to this list it will function exactly the same as the other. Points/Visits/etc are shared between the two. This list represents those players who would rather play at a smaller school than sit on the bench at a bigger program. While not common, this does happen. * In the recruiting interface, all schools that have ever put points on a player should be listed when hovering over the "+" at the end of the display. Not their point values, just the name of the schools (@inspiral).
  10. 35 points
    Soluna

    Merry Christmas

    Merry Christmas everyone, whether you celebrate today, tomorrow, or not at all. I hope everyone has a wonderful holidays.
  11. 35 points
  12. 34 points
    Soluna

    Soluna's Hurricane Info

    I consider myself fairly experienced with Hurricanes. In 2004, I took two direct NE eyewall hits from Hurricane's Frances and Jeanne. In 2016 I dealt with strong winds from Hurricane Matthew and last year I took a direct hit from Irma in Orlando. Here are some tips if you're going to ride it out: Food: Expect to not have power for seven plus days. If you get power back sooner then great! If not, you're prepared. Don't mess around with this - restaurants and stores may not be able to open sooner, especially in more remote places. Buy a ton of easy to consume stuff like canned soup, pop tarts, chips, whatever. Within like 48 hours you're REALLY going to miss warm food so I would suggest buying a camping stove or having a grill. Lighting: Again, if you don't have power for a week or more you're going to need more lighting than just a flashlight. I have a bunch of "taplights" from target that I've hung in my hallways and near the bathroom and kitchen. They're battery powered and can be used to navigate in the total dark. Candles are great but you can't fall asleep with candles on (or shouldn't fall asleep with candles on). A great tip with the flashlight is to place a jug of water in the middle of the room and touch the flashlight against the jug, the water will distribute the light relatively evenly in the whole room. Water: Buy A LOT of water, jugs/bottles/whatever. MOST IMPORTANTLY, fill your bathtub with water that you can use to either: flush the toilet (this will be the only way you have plumbing), wash your face, or take a bucket shower, if you have multiple bathtubs fill BOTH. Fridge: Put your fridge and freezer on the lowest setting a day or two before the storm arrives, if you only open it once or twice a day it'll keep moderately cool for like 3-4 days at that point, especially if you keep ice in the compartment. This is a REALLY GREAT tip that helped me keep some drinks cool 3 or so days into my Irma power outage. Cooling: Best tip I've ever gotten for keeping cool during a power outage with no generator. Buy a shit load of aluminum foil and tape it to the inside of windows and sliding glass doors. It'll reflect the sun during the day and significantly cool your house. With no A/C I can get up to 90 F at my place, during Irma it never went over 80 F because of the foil. 80 still sucks but you arent sweating. How to ride it out: Honestly pretend you're preparing for a zombie onslaught. I propped couches and tables up against big windows/sliding glass doors. DO NOT stay or sleep near these during the storm. I have experience with wood pieces and bricks and such making it through walls in all three storms. Find the innermost, safe, room (maybe a bathroom or closet) and make a makeshift shelter with a mattress propped over you at an angle. If something does happen to your roof the mattress will absorb most of the problems and you'll have a little safe space triangle between the wall and mattress. Make sure you buy plastic bins and put EVERYTHING you would need to start a new life in there in case your house falls apart. Put your passport, birth certificate, banking information, family pictures, and anything else you hold dear to you in plastic bags in a sealed plastic box. One of my best friends lost his roof 5 hours into the 48 hours of Frances and lost pretty much everything except his plastic box. Other tips The worst part of the storm is the eyewall, in the middle you may have the eye pass over you, THE STORM IS NOT OVER, DO NOT GO OUTSIDE. Generally the NE or E eyewall is the worst in the Atlantic. Water kills: Most of the deaths caused from Hurricanes are not from the direct wind (either gusting or sustained) it's almost entirely from flooding with Hurricane-spawned tornadoes a secondary. Get a storm radio. You won't have much fun during the storm anyway and a storm radio will keep you updated ESPECIALLY if tornadoes form in your area. Hurricanes can spawn hundreds of smaller tornadoes and one of my worst memories during Frances was constantly hearing "A REPORTED TORNADO HAS TOUCHED DOWN IN (HOMETOWN) AND IS HEADING NE AT 21 MPH". You WANT to know this kind of stuff. You will not be able to tell if a tornado is coming until it's way too late. The pressure changes, especially near the eye, can be extreme. Your ears will pop and you may feel a migraine. If you have a large sliding glass door you may see it physicall flex upwards of 2-3 inches in and out like it's breathing as the pressure continues to drops. It will not generally shatter but it can appear really disturbing. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE, YOU CAN'T CHANGE ANY OF THE DAMAGE THAT'S HAPPENING. IT'S NOT WORTH YOUR SAFETY. STAY IN YOUR SAFE ROOM AND RIDE IT OUT UNTIL YOU SEE SUN. The local government will generally announce curfews on the radio after the storm and will tell you where post-storm water and gas collection points will be set up. This is mostly for my own sanity but I would really recommend getting a Hurricane tracking map. If you also have a storm radio they'll announce the coordinates of the eye every hour or so and you can track where the storm is heading and whether or not you are on the side that's getting better or worse. This can be really helpful in especially slow-moving or unpredictable storms. Get something for your mental health: play a board game, read a book, just do something else other than worry about the storm while it's over you. You're going to hear a ton of creaking and stuff cracking, don't worry about it - you're house can flex. Distract yourself from every little noise or you'll go insane.
  13. 33 points
    INTRODUCTION Through the history of NFLHC, many good QB prospects have come through the ranks. But after the QBs taken in the 2016 NFLHC Draft, just one taken in the following drafts has made even a Pro Bowl. Thomas Wheeler, taken #4 in 2015, made his first just this season. So, we thought we would rank the QBs from the 2017 draft up to this year’s class - not based on career results, but just as prospects entering NFLHC. This allows for a comparison between this year’s prospects in a very strong QB draft (though based on the results of this article, perhaps one that’s been a bit overrated) and prior prospects at the position. We’ve broken the listed prospects down into four tiers based on how good of a prospect we thought they were and included some honorable mentions at the end. Over the past 6 classes, here are the top 10 overall prospects. This is a collaborative piece between myself and @Jumbo - all research, writing, composition, and glory is shared. TIER 4 10. QB Graham Burnett 6-3 211 R Oklahoma [Pocket] 82 (2020) Following the graduation of our #5 ranked prospect, Norris Brooksheer, Burnett immediately took over in Norman as starting QB of the Sooners as a true freshman. He definitely did struggle in his first two years especially compared to the first eight on this list; 30 TD to 18 INT in his first two seasons doesn’t exactly scream top prospect. His peripheral passer rating was better however, and solid completion percentage and YPA showed that he was still a promising prospect. He then proceeded to fully break out in his third and final year as a true junior, nearly winning the Heisman and leading Oklahoma to the playoffs where they lost a very close game to a tough Alabama squad. Burnett was pretty clearly the 10th best QB on the list overall based on his accomplishments and scouting criteria. Burnett’s best season was not as good as any of the other QBs on this list (besides AJJ, by efficiency standards) and he was the one most in danger of being knocked off in favor of some of the other QBs in consideration. Outside of his grades, his scouting traits were not that great; he’s not athletic and his 25 Wonderlic is tied for the second worst amongst all the QBs who appear on this list. Overall, Burnett was not an amazing prospect and his draft position was likely helped by a weak 2020 QB class. That said, he still would likely have been a top 10 pick with his grades either way. 9. QB Mohammed Foster 6-0 194 R West Virginia [Scrambling] 82 (2021) Foster was a one-season wonder at West Virginia whose dual-threat ability, and big play potential made him an intriguing quarterback prospect despite an embarrassing 22 on the Wonderlic and questions about his decision-making ability.His gaudy QB rating of over 182 in the magical 2020 WVU run saw him skyrocket on most draft boards after taking home the Big XII Player of the Year, Walter Camp, and Heisman Trophy awards. Unfortunately, a single absurd season does not equate to a top tier rating and so Foster finds himself just above Graham Burnett due primarily to his single notable season eclipsing that of the gunslinger from Oklahoma. Outside of the 2020 season, though, his achievements are pedestrian at best, with a high passer rating of just 141 in his previous two seasons as a starter, a TD/INT ratio of 36:19, and a completion percentage milestone of a mere 61%. However, it cannot be ignored that much of Foster’s value is derived from his ability to extend plays and make magic happen outside the pocket. Overall, his inability to carry a team (traits found in others on our list, Jefferson and King specifically) hurt him in the long run and his reliance on a generational talent at WR who accounted for 35% of all completions, 40% of all yards, and a staggering 61% of all touchdowns the quarterback amassed, place him here at #9. TIER 3 8. QB A.J. Jefferson 6-3 194 R North Carolina [Pocket] 82 (2017) Touchdown Jesus (or the False Prophet, depending on your perspective) was the first ever generated recruit to be drafted by an NFLHC team. Taken #2 by the Falcons, a team that had quite literally just won the Super Bowl, the expectations on AJJ were immense heading into the NFL. While he hasn’t quite lived up to those expectations, as a prospect he was probably the most intriguing player on this list. Jefferson was perhaps the most, but certainly first highly-touted recruit at QB CFBHC has seen. And when he came in, he had probably the most exciting true freshman season that the CFBHC world has ever seen as well. He attempted 642(!) passes in 14 appearances, which is over 45 attempts per game. He ended that season with 45 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions. Any game that AJJ played in was bound to be an exciting one. He slumped a bit more in his sophomore season before reaching approximately the same efficiency in his true junior year, after which he declared his eligibility for the NFLHC Draft. Now, while AJJ’s efficiency in total for his career was… not good. His career passer rating is worse than Mohammed Foster’s, who at least offered something as a scrambler. However, that is almost certainly offset by the sheer number of times he threw the ball. There are four 4-year starters on this list, and AJJ had the most career attempts by almost 200. When you played North Carolina from 2014-2016, you knew that you would be going against a QB throwing it 40 times a game basically no matter what. And yet by most measures he still managed to find some success. There were some worries that he had been broken and become too much of a gunslinger, and to some extent that has been validated in NFLHC as he has struggled to throw even with Akili Wallace in the backfield. Nonetheless, as a prospect his cannon arm and relative success on a UNC team that did nothing but throw the ball made him seem like he had elite upside at the very least. You could argue for him to be higher based on his scouting traits - he probably has the strongest arm of any QB here - but his questionable statistical success limits his ceiling on the list to here. 7. QB Alex Leshoure 6-1 205 R Boston College [Pocket] 82 (2019) Alex Leshoure’s CFBHC career is a tale of two Alexes. His redshirt freshman and sophomore seasons were AJJ-like - limited efficiency on lots of throws, and his team had a ceiling of 9 wins. His junior and senior seasons, meanwhile, were two of the best that CFBHC has ever seen. In fact, by passer rating, they’re the two best individual seasons thrown by any player on this list. Unsurprisingly, while his Boston College squad was capped at 9 wins in his first two seasons, they made the semifinals and National Championship in his last two years when he had on average about 200 fewer attempts. Balance works (especially if you have playoff Ben Curry). If you just looked at those final two seasons, you would think that Leshoure’s placement on this list is pretty low. But there are a few reasons he doesn’t rank higher as a prospect. He was surrounded by talent - as a senior he threw to two 4.5/4.5 WRs with a 3.5/4.5 in the slot along with a 4.5/4.5 tight end. While his Wonderlic of 37 was pretty good and his grades by the scouts were good, there were many who felt that Leshoure’s ceiling was limited. His scouting report noted that he might be more of a game manager, and with the talent around him at Boston College those concerns felt legitimate. It was very tough to ignore how good Leshoure was in his final two seasons, and that’s why he did eventually end up as a top ten pick. He was also relatively athletic for a pocket quarterback, more easily allowing for him to run schemes like the spread and pistol. King and Leshoure were very, very close in terms of ranking. Leshoure is just barely edged out for perceived ceiling reasons as well as the concerns that he played with more talent than did King. Leshoure’s final two seasons were obviously great and likely superior to King’s, but his first two were also much worse in comparison to King’s first two. Still, going with either wouldn’t have been bad, and even though they’re in the same tier with a third QB they both are relatively clearly superior to the quarterback ranked #8. 6. QB Joel King 6-1 220 R Houston [Pocket] 82 (2019) How many seasons has Joel King been a starter? One of the seemingly ageless players of CFBHC, Joel King was an unrelenting workhorse at Houston, dragging them to four straight AAC title games (winning the game and the MVP award to go with it three of the times) and three straight Bowl Games as well as a playoff appearance in his senior season. Of course, the whispers of competition and imbalance in the AAC continued to hound him throughout his career and culminated in a disrespectful 5th place Heisman finish in 2018 despite posting one of the best seasons we’ve seen from a CFB QB with a passer rating over 181 to go with an outstanding 72.6% completion percentage on 330 yards per game, the second time he’d thrown over 72% in his career. And the career is what’s important to consider here: King’s prospectus is more about the sum of the parts than any one season (looking at you Foster, Burnett). That consistency (along with stellar Pro Day grades, a non-disqualifying combine performance, and a bonkers 40 on the Wonderlic) made him a prospect that NFL scouts and GMs were tripping over themselves to move into position to select first overall (this one included!). Overall, King edges out Leshoure here for a couple of reasons. First, Leshoure spent his time at BC surrounded by a plethora of NFL-caliber talent, while King certainly did not at Houston. And despite that, they are quite comparable statistically. Second, I think that the concerns about competition in the AAC during King’s tenure are blown far out of proportion. In 2014 (his freshman season), King led his team to a AAC CCG victory over a powerful #10 Boise St. side, with King taking the game MVP, again as a freshman. There were also the USF and UCF rosters of 2016-2018 which were much stronger than they are now given credit for. And King beat them all, a lot. His Houston owned the conference with so much less talent. TIER 2 5. QB Norris Brooksheer 6-3 207 R Oklahoma [Pocket] 82 (2017) Norris Brooksheer rounds out the Tier 2 list. Besides Shea, the only QB on this list to go #1 overall - although Matt Jones looks likely to join those ranks - actually ended up right below a player who went #5 overall in the same draft. That’s because, of course, not every front office would make the same decision when given the #1 pick (see: this GM’s actions with the #1 pick in the 2016 draft). That doesn’t mean that taking Brooksheer was inherently the wrong decision - his main concern was how much of his production came from Tai Miller, although that’s looked more prescient once he began play in NFLHC. In college, Brooksheer did improve his play every year, although he really only started for two full seasons. His two full seasons starting were great, throwing 65 TDs to just 12 interceptions and upping his play from a 170 passer rating to a 180 from sophomore to junior. He won the National Championship as a sophomore and then managed to take home the Heisman as a junior. Although his only two seasons as a starter were as good or better than Jarius Jones’ seasons, there were a couple of concerns that knocked him down just below. First was the aforementioned Tai Miller conundrum. Miller caught almost 50% of Brooksheer’s passing yards as a sophomore although that improved to around 40% as a junior. Secondly, while his scouting grades look pretty good on the surface - a 40 Wonderlic is among the highest of any of these QBs and he looked to be a good manager with good accuracy, though with a questionable arm - he has similar concerns to a QB appearing later on this list in that he appeared to be mostly a game manager, though perhaps as elite a game manager as you will get. Nothing about him made him look like he would ever fully win games on his own in NFLHC. Still, Brooksheer was good enough to justify going #1 if he was to hit his ceiling as an elite game manager who would basically never lose you games on his own. While that clearly hasn’t happened - the Bears recently drafted another QB who appears on this list - a QB with an extremely high floor could seem favorable to an expansion team when compared to someone who was slightly lower floor higher ceiling like Jarius Jones. Ultimately, none of the top three from that draft particularly worked out anyway so it’s mostly moot, but Brooksheer is slightly less of a preferable prospect in a vacuum. 4. QB Jarius Jones 6-1 205 R Iowa [Pocket] 83 (2017) Jarius Jones is a peculiar QB prospect. On the one hand, he entered the NFL with the elusive 83 designation, and found ways to lead Iowa to increasing amounts of success each season as a starter alongside flashes of personal greatness. On the other hand, his career statistical progression reads like that of a misappropriated talent who didn’t find his gameplan fit until his final season in Iowa City, and was labeled by many with the dreaded ‘game manager’ tag. In many ways, he finds himself outside of the top tier solely due to a horrific 2015 showing where, despite a 10-4 finish capped off by a Citrus Bowl win and MVP honors, he finished the year completing just 64% of his passes (7th worst among all seasons of every QB on our list) and a passer rating just north of 130 (3rd worst among the same). It became clear that despite a breakout 2014 season (151 rating, 40 touchdowns on 549 attempts), Jones didn’t work in a volume passing offense. Had Jarius performed somewhere between his 2014 and stellar 2016 seasons, it’d be a more rosy lookback for him, statistically speaking. That said, it’s mostly good in regards to his outlook as a prospect. Many saw Jones as a statue in the pocket, immobile and unathletic. These myths were dispelled by an above-average showing at the 2017 Combine, where he edged fellow signal caller Norris Brooksheer in the 40, vertical, broad jump, and 3-cone, only being bested in the Wonderlic (34 to Brooksheer’s 40). In his private workouts, GMs learned of his stellar game management ability and comparable arm strength to the other top prospect (being beaten in perceived accuracy). This revelation fell in-line with what scouts saw in his final season at Iowa, where he threw just 333 times (compared to 672 in 2015), and posted some impressive numbers - 71.2% completion, 177.3 rating, and 10.3 ypa, which is good for 3rd best among all seasons evaluated here. Overall, Jones finds himself just above Brooksheer for the following reasons: Brooksheer had the incredible Tai Miller to lean on at Oklahoma, while Jones had no such weapon in the passing game at Iowa in his final year and ended with a comparable stat line. The pedigree of 83 is also something that cannot be overlooked, all argument about the value overall aside. At the time of the 2017 draft, most considered this an enormous indicator of professional success, and it plays into our comparative ranking of Jones and Brooksheer here. 3. QB Tanner Bowman 6-2 203 R Penn State [Pocket] 82 (2021) One of the most decorated and successful quarterbacks in CFB history, Tanner Bowman stepped into the starting QB spot on a stacked Penn State roster in 2019 and managed to exceed expectations, winning two B1G titles, two national championships, two B1G Player of the Year awards, and two 1st Team All American honors in, you guessed it, two seasons. And although he never won the big one, taking third in 2019 and second in 2020 Heisman Voting, he cleaned up the Davey O’Brien and Johnny Unitas awards in 2020. It feels bad to keep him out of the top tier simply because he had the good fortune of playing in State College on an absolutely stacked roster, but to us he is a shade behind the two tier one prospects on our list, but 2019 is a pretty good exemplification of our reasoning. Bowman was good, real good, but he wasn’t great, and it can be postulated that he didn’t have to do much other than not throw the ball away for his team to finish 16-0 and take home the National Championship. This knocks him out of the top tier, but strictly above guys like Jarius Jones and Norris Brooksheer because of what he did in 2020. Bowman’s 2020 season was absolutely gross, gaudy, insane, whatever word you want to use to describe 44 touchdowns against 6 interceptions, 71% completion percentage, and a 181 passer rating. In any other season, he would have added the Heisman to his collection, but Mohammed Foster happened and stymied his prospects to etch his name into history. Overall, Tanner Bowman is a name that will be forever enshrined in CFB, B1G, and Penn State lore as a stupidly efficient passer who was able to meet and even exceed the lofty expectations hoisted on him as a starting quarterback for the 2019 and 2020 Nittany Lions, some of the most impressive and talented rosters in CFB history. His career record of 31-1 overall (that’s a winning percentage of 97%, for those keeping score at home), and 18-0 in the B1G will be difficult to replicate as recruiting fertility moves south and power shifts and balances out in the bigger conferences. TIER 1 2. QB Matt Jones 6-3 208 R Purdue [Pocket] 83 (2022) You like that?! It was honestly very, very close between Shea and Jones - the two are basically in a tier of their own. Purdue’s acclaimed starting QB has won 10 games in each of his four seasons as a starter and as of publishing time for this article might go on to win a national championship this year. He had a passer rating of 162 as a freshman and has only improved on that since, with each of his successive seasons looking better and better. Two seasons with a 71%+ completion percentage is incredible. Surprisingly, however, Jones’ first career individual accolade came this season when he won the B1G Offensive Player of the Year award, though more may be to come. Jones’ consistency and winning pedigree are unmatched by any QB prospect ever in the history of CFBHC. Tanner Bowman might be better in this regard, but he only started in two seasons compared to four for Jones. The team will have finished in the top 13 in all four of his seasons and top 10 in three when his career is over, and his 46 wins that might top out at 48 are the most of any of the QBs appearing on this list, and perhaps the most of any QB in history. His only real serious loss was to Penn State in last year’s B1G conference championship game, a forgivable offense considering that team only lost one game in two years. With Tucker Dowden taking some of his shine in what could easily have been a QB award sweep for him otherwise, Jones’ final season could possibly not match the shine of Shea’s, unless he takes the Heisman or wins it all, both of which are distinct possibilities. But combine that unknown with his unknown scouted abilities, and he falls just short of the number one placement. Honestly, though, if he does win the Heisman or national championship this year… I would move him to #1, even without knowing his scouting ratings. He’s just flat out been that good. His past two seasons are very comparable to Shea’s final two and his freshman and sophomore campaigns are significantly better than Shea’s only other playing time. 1. QB Aaron Shea 6-2 204 R Missouri [Pocket] 83 (2018) The hype leading up to the first pick of the 2018 NFLHC Draft was simultaneously the most palpable I’ve ever experienced as a member of the site (in part because the Eagles picked #2 that season) as well as the most predictable. Shea #1 was a forgone conclusion long before draft night, and for good reason. He had everything you want in a quarterback, and he had it in spades. Statistical progression? Check. Heisman Trophy? Check. Combine? Check. Double check. I could continue here, but you get the point, so let’s start with the numbers. Shea got better every season, taking a huge leap from 2015 to 2016, and again in 2017 (smaller leap), when he posted his crowning jewel of a season completing 72% of his passes, throwing 35 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions, and recording a passer rating just shy of 180 before dragging his team to another SEC CCG and a CFB Playoff appearance on his way to a Heisman Trophy, 1st Team All-American, as well as Johnny Unitas and Davey O’Brien awards. Some will say that Shea shouldn’t be #1 on the list (and it’s close) because he never won a bowl game, conference championship, or playoff game. To those I say this - Missouri had no place in the SEC CG in 2016 or 2017, and they had no place in the playoff in 2017. They made those games because of their generational QB talent who dragged them there kicking and screaming. And they lost those two SEC Championship games by a combined 6 points to a loaded Alabama team that eclipsed them in talent in every conceivable way. One man can only do so much. Shea beats Matt Jones in my mind because Jones is still an unknown from a Combine/Pro Day standpoint, and because of the hype he generated as a surefire franchise QB from the time he took his first snap in 2016 to his last Combine event. It is yet to be seen if Jones will garner the same amount of attention throughout the scouting and pre-draft process as Shea and for that reason, and again it’s very close, Shea tops our list. JUST MISSED [Unordered] QB Christian Barkley 6-3 211 R Texas Tech [Pocket] 81 (2019) Barkley had a great 2018 season, but before that he was relatively mediocre. Most scouts at the time weren’t looking at him as a first round prospect - he eventually was picked at the top of the second round, and there were some that were even surprised at that. Soluna did pick him though, so that was followed by a bunch of people pretending they thought he was elite all along. Nonetheless, the major reason for Barkley missing this list is that nothing about him screamed elite as a prospect, while everyone who made the list at least seemed to have the potential to make it into that echelon. QB Donald Culver 6-1 192 R Utah [Pocket] 81 (2022) Culver suffers from Graham Burnett syndrome and that his only good season was this past one. The problem with that is his prios stats were even worse - sure, he was not actively coached, but a 120 passer rating last season is extremely worrying. His season this year leading Utah to the playoffs was a great one, but his supporting cast might be a bit underrated and without any scouting information it’s tough to justify putting a guy with one real elite season onto this list, especially when he’s not an 82 or 83 like the rest. QB Brett Fisher 6-2 211 R Miami [Scrambling] 82 (2020) Fisher was really, really good up until his senior season. Most of the good players on his Miami team left, and his production cratered as a result. While some would disregard that information, the fact that his production fell off a cliff worried many scouts and he nearly fell out of the first round entirely as a result. Everything else was solid - all his other seasons and his scouting grades looked good. But that terrible senior season, along with production that was really good but not quite reaching the heights of any of the players who made this list was enough to keep Fisher away from it. QB Ryan Harris 6-4 213 R Fresno State [Pocket] 82 (2022) While Harris has seen some success in college and is looked at as a promising QB prospect for the upcoming draft by some, there are a few things holding him back. His performance as a senior has not been inspiring, as his Fresno team failed to make a bowl even in the Mountain West. That should be concerning for someone looking for a QB to lead an NFLHC franchise. Besides that, we aren’t sure of his scouting ratings quite yet and without an elite WR like Sam Hiller-Weeden his stats have barely looked up to par. He seems like he should have a high ceiling, but might need to go to a good situation to find success. That doesn’t cut it for a top QB prospect. QB Tommy Jones 6-3 198 R Michigan [Pocket] 82 (2018) He was an 82 overall so he was considered for about a second. That said, he was picked in the fourth round and wasn’t particularly a good prospect outside of his overall à la Jamal Brunell, so he was basically the first prospect discarded from consideration. QB Matty Swift 5-11 198 R Texas A&M [Pocket] 82 (2019) QBs under 6 foot are worrisome. But outside of that, there were some serious concerns when it came to Swift, which is why despite being projected to be #1 at some point he fell all the way through half of the second round. His Pro Day showed accuracy and mechanics concerns, two of the most important aspects of playing QB in NFLHC, and there were also serious worries about how much of his production came from throwing to Adrian Jankowski. Ultimately that was enough to keep him off the list, although he would probably end up #11 if we had continued that far. QB R.J. Stanford 5-11 203 R Arkansas [Pocket] 80 (2018) Although a hybrid now, Stanford was a prolific pocket passer coming out. An amazing Pro Day that basically showed him as an elite QB in most facets shot him up draft boards, with many thinking he would go in the first round, though he eventually went in the second to the Giants. Despite his amazing Pro Day, Stanford was just an 80 overall. And although he threw the ball on par with the amount of times AJJ did, his production wasn’t as good - as a senior his passer rating was just 120 (Although on about 650 attempts). That was enough to keep him off.
  14. 32 points
    Soluna

    10th Anniversary Tournament

    As a treat for the 10th anniversary season of the site (2022), at the conclusion of the season (following the 2022 national championship) we'll have an Anniversary Cup during the off-season that will follow the guidelines of the real soccer world cup. 32 CFBHC teams (with their 2022 rosters) will qualify based on the criteria listed below. The teams will be drawn into 8 round-robin groups of 4 where 2 advance. The second round consists of knockout matches based on the group placement. There will be a prize for the winner TBA. The offseason will continue as normal while this is going on. Selection criteria: No more than 6 teams per conference. Former CFBHC National Champions automatically qualify and will be placed into Pot 1 for drawing of groups. LSU Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Independent), Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12), and Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten) have already qualified. Either the Missouri Tigers or Purdue Boilermakers will qualify. Teams that have won their conference the most number of times. In the case of a tie of at least 3 victories all teams will qualify. If it is two or less the team to have reached that number earliest will qualify. If a team has already qualified for being a National Champion the runner-up will qualify, if needed this is continued down the line. Rice Owls (C-USA), Air Force Falcons (MWC), Houston Cougars (AAC), Florida State Seminoles (ACC), Kansas Jayhawks (Big 12), Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten), Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (Sun Belt), USC Trojans (Pac-12) The MAC has two teams who can qualify via this route: Northern Illinois Huskies OR Western Michigan Broncos The SEC has four teams who can qualify via this route: Georgia Bulldogs, Florida Gators, Tennessee Volunteers OR Missouri Tigers The remaining 14 or 15 teams will be determined by all time wins. Tournament seeding: Pot A: CFBHC National Champions. If there are only 7 then the 8th spot will be filled by the team with the most wins that does not have a National Championship. Pot B: 1-8 in win percentage from the remaining teams. Pot C: 9-16 in win percentage from the remaining teams. Pot D: 17-24 in win percentage from the remaining teams. The draw will be streamed live and scheduling will follow the World Cup schedule so games will take place over about a month. Each result will have full gameplanning and game reports as normal. Soluna PS: I'm sure someone can come up with an easy way to track qualification for this...
  15. 32 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.5b

    CFBHC v1.5b Differentiation of Conferences / Unique Experiences Update Part 2: Recruiting - Happy Birthday @DangerZoneh and @stormstopper June 5th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.5.0.15 Notes: Thanks to all those who helped testing and recommended stuff as usual. General Info / Idea I got a ton of feedback about how much the recruiting tiers were loved and how people wish they could adapt custom strategies more easily. I received several ideas from discord/PM/and feedback forums that I've integrated into our system. Additionally, inspiral provided me data on which talents were chosen by which schools so I've rebalanced a lot of the tiers aside from the updates. @inspiral I'm assuming this might be too complicated (although I'm not sure) in which case we could just do it via excel sheet and then tell you the value each school has for each variable instead of making it a GUI thing. Up to you - I know it's a lot of work and appreciate what you've already done. We can discuss details via PM. CFBHC * Recruiting Tiers now scale with the number of wins. Tier 1 is available upon reaching 1 win. Tier 2 is available upon reaching 4 wins. Tier 3 is available upon reaching 7 wins. Tier 4 is available upon reaching 10 wins. A new choice has been added for each tier that is only available for the teams that have reached the maximum number of wins in that tier (called Tier Mastery Talents). (For example if you have 1 win, your choice for the first tier below would be +1 point/+1 school visit/+1 coach visit and the mastery talent would be unavailable as a choice until you made 3 wins.) Tier 1 Choices (1 Win/2 Wins/3 Wins): OLD: (at 2 wins): +3 weekly points OR +3 school visits OR +2 coaches visits Strong Recruiter: +1/+2/+2 weekly recruiting points. School Spirit: +1/+2/+3 school visits. Well Traveled: +1/+2/+2 coaches visits. (New - Mastery Talent) Diversified Recruiting: Gain +1 weekly recruiting points. +1 school visit, and +1 coaches visit. Tier 2 Choices (4 Wins/5 Wins/6 Wins): OLD: (at 5 wins): 25% bonus on host camp recruits (instead of 15%) OR three additional team needs slots OR add a border state and receive 12 points on each recruit there if at least 5 are put on them Quality over Quantity: 22%/24%/26% Supreme Need: 2 extra slots/3 extra slots/3 extra slots Expansive Camps: 12 points/14 points/16 points (NEW - Mastery Talent) International Recruiting: Opt-in to participate in a tertiary, complete independent recruiting that allows you to fight over international recruits with only schools who have selected this as well. Points are shared with primary or secondary (G5) recruiting and visits may NOT be used. (recruits will be posted beforehand, there will be approximately 100 at normal distributions) Tier 3 Choices (7 Wins/8 Wins/9 Wins): OLD: (at 8 wins): home state recruits start with 30 points if at least 5 are put on them (instead of 25) OR bordering state recruits start with 18 points if at least 5 are put on them (instead of 12) OR ensure two JuCo recruits prefer your program. Home State Fortress: 29 points on in-state/31 points on in-state/33 points on in-state Regional Power: 19 points on bordering/21 points on bordering/23 points on bordering National Expsure: 1 JuCo prefers your program/2 JuCos prefer your program/2 JuCos prefer your gram and one further JuCo will have a secondary preference of your school (NEW - Mastery Talent) Over the Top: Improves JuCo Scholarships from +18 to +30 and JuCo Visits from +16 to +30. Receive an additional JuCo Scholarship and reduce your weekly recruiting points by -5. Tier 4 Choices (10 Wins/11 Wins/12 Wins): OLD: (at 11 wins): two star players at 12 points per week OR scholarships up to +25 (from 20) OR instantly claim a 1.0/5.0 or lower player and a 1.0/3.5 or lower player from your home state Rising Star: 2 Star Players at 8 weekly points/2 Star Players at 10 weekly points/2 Star Players at 12 weeekly points Strong Academics: Scholarships are +27/+29/+31 (instead of regular +20) Legacy Locks: Claim two 1.0/4.0 players (or lower) from your state instantly/Claim a 1.0/4.5 and a 1.0/4.0 (or lower) from your state instantly/Claim a 2.0/4.5 and a 1.5/4.0 (or lower) from your state instantly (New - Mastery Talent) Undiscovered Talent: Create a recruit (there will be a thread - subject to name and school approval by Soluna) and receive him as part of your recruiting class instantly. Max skill/potential for each position: QB (2.5/4.5), RB (2.5/4.5), FB (1.0/5.0) WR (1.0/5.0), TE (1.0/5.0), OT (2.5/4.5), OG (1.0/5.0), C (1.0/5.0), DE (2.5/4.5), DT (1.0/5.0), ILB (1.0/5.0), OLB (1.0/5.0), CB (1.0/5.0), FS (1.0/5.0), SS (1.0/5.0), K (2.5/4.5), P (1.5/5.0), LS (1.5/5.0), KR (1.0/5.0), PR (1.0/5.0)
  16. 31 points
    Soluna

    Admin Newsletter: October, 2018

    Soluna's Admin Newsletter No. 3 | October 2018 Most of near future predictions from the last newsletter came true besides the CFBHC Spring Camps. I unfortunately didn't end up having enough time to do progressions and the camps but they will almost certainly take place every season beginning next year as soon as I figure out a way to standardize them. Upcoming Events NFLHC pre-season completes. CFBHC season begins. What am I doing I'm still working on the Owner Update but I'm having a ton of problems balancing it properly. I may end up delaying it for next year to give myself more time to work on it but it's for sure still coming. I haven't been able to look at anything else other than this in the last month because it's taken all my time that wasn't progressions. Inspiral is currently finishing updating the interface so that we can get moving on the season. We might delay one more week if he needs it but that should likely be enough time for everyone to be ready. What can you expect in the near future? NFLHC Pre-Season concludes NFLHC Regular Season begins CFBHC Regular Season begins ...CROOTS Soluna
  17. 30 points
    Due to the easier accessibility of player stats thanks to @Jieret and everyone who helped put together the consolidated statsheet, the nerds at the Chicago Tribune's college football analytics department have a lot less work to do to put together the annual preseason ratings. That means that teaser time comes early as well in the form of our (hopefully annual) outlook ratings. As a reminder, the formula used takes into account past performance, recruiting rankings, and returning production. What you're about to see is where that as-yet-unreleased final rating compares to last year's performance as measured by readjusted margin of victory (which is opponent-adjusted margin of victory, but opponent-adjusted a second time)--not in comparison to their win-loss record. We'll also include which category each team does best in, weighted the same way that the preseason ratings formula is weighted. From worst to best, the outlook ratings go: Freefall (regression worse than 2 standard deviations below the mean, 6 teams) Bearish (regression worse than 1 standard deviation below the mean, 14 teams) Mildly Bearish (regression worse than one-third of one standard deviation below the mean, 27 teams) Steady (within one-third of one standard deviation of the mean in either direction, 42 teams) Mildly Bullish (improvement better than one-third of one standard deviation above the mean, 33 teams) Bullish (improvement better than 1 standard deviation above the mean, 19 teams) Skyrocketing (improvement better than 2 standard deviations above the mean, 1 team) One standard deviation corresponds to ~21.6 spots in outlook regression/improvement. This is NOT the preseason ratings, just the one-year trend. A really good team in 2022 with a bearish outlook in 2023 can still be expected to be better than a really bad team in 2022 with a bullish outlook in 2023, and last year's top teams are generally not gonna rate above "steady" just because they have no room to improve. AAC East Cincinnati: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Connecticut: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance East Carolina: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production USF: Bullish (no pun intended); Best Category: Recruiting Temple: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting UCF: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting AAC West Houston: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Memphis: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Navy: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production Tulsa: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance SMU: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Tulane: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance ACC Atlantic Boston College: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Clemson: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting Florida State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Louisville: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production NC State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Syracuse: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Wake Forest: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance ACC Coastal Duke: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Georgia Tech: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Miami (FL): Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting North Carolina: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Pittsburgh: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Virginia: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Virginia Tech: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Big XII Conference Iowa State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Kansas: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Kansas State: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Oklahoma: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting West Virginia: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Baylor: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Oklahoma State: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance TCU: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting Texas: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: Recruiting Texas Tech: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Big Ten East Indiana: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Maryland: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Michigan: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting Michigan State: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Ohio State: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Penn State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Rutgers: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Big Ten West Illinois: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Iowa: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Minnesota: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Nebraska: Freefall; Best Category: 2022 Performance Northwestern: Freefall; Best Category: 2022 Performance Purdue: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Wisconsin: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance C-USA East Charlotte: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Florida International: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Marshall: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Middle Tennessee: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Old Dominion: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Western Kentucky: Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Florida Atlantic: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting C-USA West Louisiana Tech: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production Rice: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: Recruiting North Texas: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Southern Miss: Skyrocketing; Best Category: Returning Production UTEP: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production UTSA: Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production UAB: Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production MAC East Akron: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Bowling Green: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Buffalo: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Kent State: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Miami (OH): Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Ohio: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance MAC West Ball State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Central Michigan: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: Returning Production Eastern Michigan: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Northern Illinois: Freefall; Best Category: 2022 Performance Toledo: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting Western Michigan: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance MWC Mountain Air Force: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Boise State: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Colorado State: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance New Mexico: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Utah State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Wyoming: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance MWC West Fresno State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Hawaii: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Nevada: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting San Diego State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting San Jose State: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance UNLV: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Pac-12 North California: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Oregon: Bearish; Best Category: Recruiting Oregon State: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Stanford: Freefall; Best Category: 2022 Performance Washington: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Washington State: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Pac-12 South Arizona: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Arizona State: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Colorado: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance UCLA: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting USC: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Utah: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance SEC East Florida: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Georgia: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production Kentucky: Freefall; Best Category: 2022 Performance Missouri: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting South Carolina: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting Tennessee: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting Vanderbilt: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting SEC West Alabama: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Arkansas: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Auburn: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance LSU: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Mississippi State: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production Ole Miss: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Texas A&M: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Sun Belt East Appalachian State: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Coastal Carolina: Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Georgia Southern: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Georgia State: Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Troy: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance Sun Belt West Arkansas State: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Louisiana-Lafayette: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production Louisiana-Monroe: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance South Alabama: Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting Texas State: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Recruiting FBS Independents Notre Dame: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance BYU: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Army: Mildly Bullish; Best Category: Returning Production UMass: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting Liberty: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production New Mexico State: Steady; Best Category: Recruiting FCS* Delaware: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Eastern Washington: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production Harvard: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Illinois State: Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance James Madison: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: Returning Production Montana: Steady; Best Category: 2022 Performance New Hampshire: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production North Dakota: Freefall; Best Category: 2022 Performance North Dakota State: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production Northern Iowa: Steady; Best Category: Returning Production South Dakota State: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: 2022 Performance Youngstown State: Mildly Bearish; Best Category: Returning Production *note: FCS ratings are less likely to be reliable due to their one-game non-conference schedule and only one year of data
  18. 30 points
    Soluna

    Analyzing the NDSU Offense

    I'd like to think I'll do more of these in the future but the amount of time I have for this stuff is always kind of random so we'll see, I won't make any promises. I'm trying to get more involved in looking at FCS games after somewhat ignoring them all year and wanted to see how an entirely new "league" is developing. It's interesting to see what new offenses and styles are being set up in what is essentially a developmental vacuum in terms of tactics and coaching (especially since most FCS coaches are actually relatively new). I just wanted to compile some rambling thoughts about some of the stuff I've noticed and how it's helped me grow more interested in the FCS scene. @SolutionA is doing a superb job handling what he was given and adapting when he needs to adapt and I feel like it's underrated on the site because FCS isn't as flashy as FBS. Here's NDSU's starting offense: QB: Zack McAllister (Sophomore) 3.5/3.5 - 159/241 for 1948 yards, 18 TD, 2 INT RB: Ivan Baldwin (Sophomore) 3.5/3.5 - 154 for 768 yards, 11 TD, 1 FUM WR1: Stevie Henderson (Senior) 4.5/4.5 - 44 for 698 yards, 8 TD, 1 Drop WR2: John Welch (Junior) 4.0/4.0 - 36 for 460 yards, 5 TD TE: Joshua Killian (Senior) 4.0/4.0 - 7 for 80 yards, 1 TD (sharing TE duties with a blocking TE) O-Line Average Player Rating: 2.8/3.0 O-Line Average Performance Rating: 3.63 (7 Sacks Allowed) Pass to Run Ratio: 61%/39% Schedule: W @ EWU, W vs. Northern Iowa, W vs. YST, W vs. Montana, W vs. JMU, L @ TTU, W @ SDST, W vs. Delaware, W @ Harvard North Dakota State's offense is insane for FCS level play and should be enough to get them an easy ride to (at least) the championship bracket. The Pass/Run Ratio is consistent with development of offenses in the first two years of CFBHC (The average Pass/Run in 2013 was 58/42 and in 2014 was 60/40) so it appears the trend towards 150% Pass to Run remains (this is something I've used in gameplanning for many seasons when deciding what to target on defense). McAllister and Baldwin are not the two best players in FCS but the combination of their receivers, line play, and their play off of each other makes NDSU a strong contender in the "I don't know how to defend against this shit" category of opponents. With most FCS defenders currently averaging about 2.5 skill, an offense centered around 3.5-4.5 level players is well above what is needed to dominate. @SolutionA's coaching has been superb throughout the season, with necessary changes in gameplanning at key moments and clear development shown when issues were revealed. The loss to Texas Tech appears to have been nothing but a minor inconvenience to this team and NDSU has a strong shot at defeating an FBS level team next year. OT John Torres has surrendered only 1 sack up to this point in the season and should be in the conversation for one of the best FCS linemen and with the offensive line playing a bit above their actual average player rating I suspect offensive gameplanning has a strong effect on the stability of the line. NDSU's three remaining games (two of which are @ Illinois State and @ North Dakota) should show the true adaptability of the coaching but I suspect we'll be seeing an 11-1 Bison team heading into the championship bracket. Overall, I hope to continue to monitor the development of offenses at the FCS level because it really does remind me of the site's beginning and I love that new coaches are experimenting the same way we saw experimentation at the very beginning. You can dismiss my thoughts by saying "Oh well whatever, he started with a great team and was somewhat gifted this season... and you might be right EXCEPT I think the team is still far outperforming what would have happened with AI coaches and that only be the coach. I think @SolutionA should be proud of where he's going with this team.
  19. 30 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.5f

    CFBHC v1.5f Differentiation of Conferences / Unique Experiences Update August 28th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.5.4.11 Notes: Thanks to all those who helped testing and recommended stuff as usual. General Info / Idea Two features that were requested from people. No further comment. There will be one more big feature for NFLHC Owners coming to wrap up CFBHC v1.5. CFBHC * Scholarship limit introduced. CFBHC teams are limited to 85 players on their entire roster. As most teams are likely currently above this value teams will now be allowed to only recruit 21 players each year (regular recruiting and/or JuCo). After rosters have normalized I may change this to be your decision per year as long as you don't surpass 85 but for the foreseeable future 21 a year is the max. Walk-ons are still being considered for the future but in a different capacity. NFLHC * Regional newspaper requirement removed.
  20. 30 points
    Each trade analysis post will follow the same format: Type Net Change in Expected Win Total First Team - Net Change in Expected Win Total Second Team Benefits Analysis First Team Detriment Analysis First Team Benefits Analysis Second Team Detritment Analysis Second Team Type (in favor of _____ team) Unfair: Trade is extremely lopsided to one side and should be considered to be voided. The net value of one side is greater than twice the net value of the other. Lopsided: The trade value of one side is between 1.5 and 2.0 times greater for one side than for the other. Slight Edge: The trade value of one side is between 1.2 and 1.5 times greater for one side than for the other. Even: The trade value is within 0.2 for both sides. Because of the nature of trades the net change does not have to be cumulatively 0, it's possible for both teams to be negative, both teams to be positive, or both teams to differ in a way that does not sum to 0. Benefit/Detriment Categories: Leadership: Locker room presence adjustment Age: Likelihood of retirement, proneness to injury Chemistry: How the team is affected as a whole Unit Strength (O-Line, D-Line, Receivers, Linebackers, Secondary, Special Teams, etc): Whether complete or marginal impact on the overall cohesiveness and skill total of the unit. Morale: How much other players are impacted by a leader being traded, a top tier player being traded, or a player gaining competition at their position. Draft value More may be added in the future.
  21. 29 points
    Welcome to another quality expose' piece by the newly minted bleach report team. While most CFBHC fans and media members spend time rosterbating and humbly shitboxing to their own players' high quality stats and development, we here at the bleach report decided to go against the grain, as we;ll tend to do. The players listed below have been found on a minimum of 8 stat sheets so far (excluding FCS for the time being). This means all of these guys play serious minutes and we aren't pulling data for 3rd or 4th string typs. We'll be looking at QB, RB, WR, TE for various categories where they, uh, don't really excel at, Some of this is due to the nature of offense run by the team but most is just ineptitude. NSFW warning as some of these are very, very brutal. And shoutout to @Jieret as these stats were compiled using his CFBHC Consolidated Statsheet Passing YPG Team Position Player Skill Pot Class YPG QB Oswaldo Stevenson 2.0 2.5 So 77.50 QB Donald Garrett 2.5 3.5 (So) 78.00 QB Levi Thompson 2.5 3.5 (So) 93.75 QB Riley Head 3.5 3.5 (Jr) 126.67 QB Vaughn Sheppard 2.0 4.5 So 140.25 Passing TDs Team Position Player Skill Pot Class TDs QB Nathan Abrams 3.5 3.5 (Fr) 4 QB Hernando Cortez 2.0 3.5 (Fr) 5 QB Levi Thompson 2.5 3.5 (So) 5 QB Oswaldo Stevenson 2.0 2.5 So 5 QB Adam Slone 3.0 3.0 (Jr) 6 Passing YPA Team Position Player Skill Pot Class YPA QB Pita Ponifasio 3.0 3.0 (Fr) 4.61 QB Oswaldo Stevenson 2.0 2.5 So 4.63 QB Hernando Cortez 2.0 3.5 (Fr) 4.96 QB Khalil Simpkins 2.5 4.0 (Fr) 5.08 QB Kieron Farmer 2.0 4.5 (Fr) 5.59 INTs Team Position Player Skill Pot Class INTs QB Pita Ponifasio 3.0 3.0 (Fr) 15 QB Hernando Cortez 2.0 3.5 (Fr) 13 QB Adam Slone 3.0 3.0 (Jr) 12 QB Roger Reese 2.5 3.5 Jr 12 QB Martin Johnson 3.0 3.0 (Sr) 12 Comp % Team Position Player Skill Pot Class Comp % QB Oswaldo Stevenson 2.0 2.5 So 47.01 QB Pita Ponifasio 3.0 3.0 (Fr) 48.57 QB Hernando Cortez 2.0 3.5 (Fr) 48.77 QB Khalil Simpkins 2.5 4.0 (Fr) 49.37 QB Zachary Mattson 1.0 4.5 Fr 51.19 Rushing YPG Team Position Player Skill Pot Class YPG RB Tion Mays 1.0 3.0 Fr 25.38 RB Justin Leggett 2.5 3.5 Jr 28.50 RB Robert Robertson 3.0 3.0 Sr 28.63 RB Trevor Workman 3.0 4.5 (So) 30.38 RB Jonah Crawley 3.5 3.5 (So) 31.25 Rushing TDs Team Position Player Skill Pot Class TDs RB Maximillian Carmichael 3.0 4.0 (So) 0 RB Terrell Swain 4.0 4.0 (So) 1 RB Tion Mays 1.0 3.0 Fr 1 RB Devon Cannon 3.5 3.5 (Jr) 2 RB Amir Turner Jr. 3.5 4.0 Jr 2 Rush YPA Team Position Player Skill Pot Class YPA RB Tion Mays 1.0 3.0 Fr 3.22 RB Andre Black 2.5 3.5 (So) 3.26 RB Justin Leggett 2.5 3.5 Jr 3.35 RB Ian Pope 3.5 3.5 (Sr) 3.43 RB Prince Amos 3.0 3.0 Sr 3.46 Fumbles Lost Team Position Player Skill Pot Class Fumbles Lost RB Cayden Gipson 3.0 3.0 Sr 6 RB Denzel Porter 4.0 4.0 Sr 5 RB Aiden Colbert 4.5 4.5 (So) 5 RB Timothy Gonzalez 3.0 3.0 Sr 4 RB Ray Jay Dougherty 3.5 3.5 (Sr) 4 Drops Team Position Player Skill Pot Class Drops WR Karl Craig 2.0 3.0 Jr 7 WR Peter Kolb 3.0 3.0 Fr 7 WR Roscoe Bishop 4.5 4.5 (Sr) 6 WR Gabriel Willis 4.0 4.0 (So) 6 WR Mario Steen 2.5 2.5 Jr 6 Yards Per Catch Team Position Player Skill Pot Class YPC WR Lucas Ragland 2.0 3.0 So 8.58 WR Gavin Durham 2.5 3.0 (So) 8.68 WR Marquise Betts 2.0 3.5 (Fr) 9.79 WR Nicholas Strong 3.5 3.5 Sr 9.82 WR Joseph Crichton 2.0 4.0 (Fr) 10.00 Receiving YPG Team Position Player Skill Pot Class YPG WR Graham Beck 3.5 4.0 (Jr) 15.33 WR Cole Churchill 3.0 3.0 (Sr) 17.00 WR Lucas Ragland 2.0 3.0 So 18.11 WR Gavin Durham 2.5 3.0 (So) 21.22 WR Ajani Walker 2.0 3.0 So 21.78 A couple quick hitters QB Nathan Abrams is averaging a TD every 47.25 attempts. For a comparison QB Eric McLean is at 12.1 in that same metric. QB Pita Ponifasio boasts a whopping 6/15 TD/INT ratio RB Maximillian Carmichael has 0 TDs on 111 attempts. RB Cayden Gipson has 6 fumbles lost on just 176 carries. Good for about 1 fumble every 29 carries. Almost 1 per game. holds the top 2 for WR drops. WR Karl Craig has 7 drops to only 37 catches.
  22. 29 points
    The tenth season of CFBHC football is upon us, and it's time to begin the grand arguments over who's good, who's bad, who's overrated, and who's going to be the last team standing when all is said and done. Using a combination of recruiting rankings over the past five years, prior performance, and returning production, we aim to estimate just how good each team is going to end up being. We make no claim of perfection, but so far it seems that teams are more often within the general vicinity of their preseason ranking than not--though there are always outliers. If your team is ranked poorly, surely they'll be one of those outliers; if they're ranked highly, of course it could never happen to you. Before we get into what teams are the best, let's first get an overview of where the divisions and conferences will stand, ranked by average strength. I. Projected Division Rankings 20. Sun Belt East 19. Sun Belt West 18. FBS Independents 17. C-USA East 16. MAC East 15. MWC Mountain 14. AAC West 13. MAC West 12. C-USA West 11. AAC East 10. MWC West 9. Pac-12 North 8. ACC Atlantic 7. Big XII (non-divisional) 6. Pac-12 South 5. Big Ten East 4. ACC Coastal 3. Big Ten West 2. SEC East 1. SEC West II. Projected Conference Rankings 11. Sun Belt 10. FBS Independents 9. C-USA 8. MAC 7. MWC 6. AAC 5. Pac-12 4. ACC 3. Big XII 2. Big Ten 1. SEC - Next, an overview of the top contenders, by conference and nationwide: III. Projected Conference Championship Games Matchups picked by projected record, winner picked by higher preseason rating AAC: SMU over UCF ACC: Duke over Clemson Big Ten: Purdue over Ohio State Big XII: TCU over Oklahoma State C-USA: Rice over Florida Atlantic MAC: Toledo over Ohio MWC: Nevada over Air Force Pac-12: Washington State over Arizona SEC: Auburn over Missouri Sun Belt: Texas State over Georgia Southern IV. Projected Playoffs Top four seeds picked by overall projected record, next four picked by highest preseason rating, winners picked by higher preseason rating (1) Nevada over (8) Oklahoma State (5) Alabama over (4) Purdue (6) TCU over (3) BYU (2) Auburn over (7) Missouri (5) Alabama over (1) Nevada (2) Auburn over (6) TCU (2) Auburn over (5) Alabama Nevada always seems to perform well in these ratings and as a result emerges with the best projected record in the country, but Auburn enters the season as our projected national title favorite. As long as the SEC doesn't beat itself up too much, 2-3 teams in the playoffs seems like a very reachable goal. BYU has the opportunity to be carried in by their record. Last year's Big XII title game participants (and this year's projected repeat matchup favorites) both appear in our group of 8, along with defending national champion Purdue. There's of course room for an ACC or Pac-12 team to slip in (Duke? Clemson? Washington State?), or for an MWC foe (San Diego State? Air Force?) to usurp Nevada's place. - And now for the rest of the nation. First will be each team's projected record, which is affected by the schedule it will play; last but certainly not least will be where each FBS team ranks from 130 to 1, unaffected by schedule. V. Projected Win-Loss Records and Conference Standings AAC East 1. UCF (9.4-2.6 overall, 6.9-1.1 AAC) 2. Temple (9.3-2.7 overall, 5.8-2.2 AAC) 3. USF (7.2-4.8 overall, 4.7-3.3 AAC) 4. Cincinnati (4.2-7.8 overall, 2.9-5.1 AAC) 5. East Carolina (3-9 overall, 2-6 AAC) 6. Connecticut (3.1-8.9 overall, 1.8-6.2 AAC) AAC West 1. SMU (9.3-2.7 overall, 6.4-1.6 AAC) 2. Navy (8.8-3.2 overall, 6.2-1.8 AAC) 3. Memphis (6.1-5.9 overall, 4-4 AAC) 4. Houston (4.8-7.2 overall, 3.6-4.4 AAC) 5. Tulsa (4.8-7.2 overall, 3.1-4.9 AAC) 6. Tulane (1.2-10.8 overall, 0.5-7.5 AAC) ACC Atlantic 1. Clemson (8.7-3.3 overall, 6.1-1.9 ACC) 2. Boston College (8.3-3.7 overall, 5.3-2.7 ACC) 3. Louisville (7.5-4.5 overall, 4.1-3.9 ACC) 4. Florida State (6.8-5.2 overall, 3.8-4.2 ACC) 5. NC State (5.8-6.2 overall, 3.5-4.5 ACC) 6. Wake Forest (5.1-6.9 overall, 2.2-5.8 ACC) 7. Syracuse (2.1-9.9 overall, 1.5-6.5 ACC) ACC Coastal 1. Duke (9.7-2.3 overall, 6.3-1.7 ACC) 2. Virginia (8.6-3.4 overall, 5.2-2.8 ACC) 3. Miami (FL) (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC) 4. Virginia Tech (7.6-4.4 overall, 4.4-3.6 ACC) 5. Pittsburgh (6.3-5.7 overall, 4.2-3.8 ACC) 6. Georgia Tech (6.2-5.8 overall, 3.9-4.1 ACC) 7. North Carolina (1.1-10.9 overall, 0.3-7.7 ACC) Big Ten East 1. Ohio State (8.6-3.4 overall, 6.5-2.5 Big Ten) 2. Penn State (8.9-3.1 overall, 6.5-2.5 Big Ten) 3. Michigan (8.4-3.6 overall, 6.4-2.6 Big Ten) 4. Rutgers (6.6-5.4 overall, 4.3-4.7 Big Ten) 5. Maryland (4.8-7.2 overall, 3.3-5.7 Big Ten) 6. Michigan State (3.8-8.2 overall, 2.8-6.2 Big Ten) 7. Indiana (2.5-9.5 overall, 1.1-7.9 Big Ten) Big Ten West 1. Purdue (10.3-1.7 overall, 7.6-1.5 Big Ten) 2. Minnesota (7.2-4.8 overall, 5-4 Big Ten) 3. Nebraska (6.3-5.7 overall, 5-4 Big Ten) 4. Wisconsin (7.2-4.8 overall, 5-4 Big Ten) 5. Northwestern (5.3-6.7 overall, 3.8-5.2 Big Ten) 6. Illinois (4.8-7.2 overall, 3.5-5.5 Big Ten) 7. Iowa (3.7-8.3 overall, 2-7 Big Ten) Big XII Conference 1. TCU (9.9-2.1 overall, 7.8-1.2 Big XII) 2. Oklahoma State (9.3-2.7 overall, 6.9-2.1 Big XII) 3. Oklahoma (8.8-3.2 overall, 6.5-2.5 Big XII) 4. Kansas (8.3-3.7 overall, 6.1-2.9 Big XII) 5. Texas (6.4-5.6 overall, 4.8-4.2 Big XII) 6. Baylor (6.2-5.8 overall, 4.3-4.7 Big XII) 7. Texas Tech (5.1-6.9 overall, 3.3-5.7 Big XII) 8. Iowa State (3.8-8.2 overall, 2.7-6.3 Big XII) 9. Kansas State (3-9 overall, 1.4-7.6 Big XII) 10. West Virginia (1.7-10.3 overall, 1.2-7.8 Big XII) C-USA East 1. Florida Atlantic (7.8-4.2 overall, 5.5-2.5 C-USA) 2. Western Kentucky (6.2-5.8 overall, 5-3 C-USA) 3. Florida International (6.6-5.4 overall, 3.9-4.1 C-USA) 4. Marshall (6.3-5.7 overall, 3.6-4.4 C-USA) 5. Old Dominion (4.9-7.1 overall, 3.4-4.6 C-USA) 6. Middle Tennessee (4-8 overall, 3-5 C-USA) 7. Charlotte (2.2-9.8 overall, 1.4-6.6 C-USA) C-USA West 1. Rice (9.7-2.3 overall, 7.2-0.8 C-USA) 2. Southern Miss (10.2-1.8 overall, 6.6-1.4 C-USA) 3. UAB (7.6-4.4 overall, 4.8-3.2 C-USA) 4. UTSA (6.5-5.5 overall, 4.2-3.8 C-USA) 5. UTEP (4.3-7.7 overall, 2.7-5.3 C-USA) 6. Louisiana Tech (4.9-7.1 overall, 2.5-5.5 C-USA) 7. North Texas (3.8-8.2 overall, 2.3-5.7 C-USA) FBS Independents 1. BYU (10.5-1.5 overall) 2. Army (5.9-6.1 overall) 3. Notre Dame (5-7 overall) 4. New Mexico State (4.2-7.8 overall) 5. UMass (2-10 overall) 6. Liberty (0.6-11.4 overall) MAC East 1. Ohio (7.8-4.2 overall, 5.7-2.3 MAC) 2. Akron (7.3-4.7 overall, 5.5-2.5 MAC) 3. Miami (OH) (6-6 overall, 3.7-4.3 MAC) 4. Buffalo (5-7 overall, 2.9-5.1 MAC) 5. Bowling Green (3-9 overall, 2.1-5.9 MAC) 6. Kent State (2.5-9.5 overall, 1.5-6.5 MAC) MAC West 1. Toledo (9.6-2.4 overall, 6.7-1.3 MAC) 2. Western Michigan (9.1-2.9 overall, 6.6-1.4 MAC) 3. Central Michigan (7.4-4.6 overall, 4.7-3.3 MAC) 4. Eastern Michigan (5.2-6.8 overall, 3.4-4.6 MAC) 5. Northern Illinois (4.9-7.1 overall, 2.6-5.4 MAC) 6. Ball State (3.9-8.1 overall, 2.6-5.4 MAC) MWC Mountain 1. Air Force (9.6-2.4 overall, 6.5-1.5 MWC) 2. Colorado State (8.3-3.7 overall, 6.2-1.8 MWC) 3. Boise State (5.7-6.3 overall, 4.8-3.2 MWC) 4. New Mexico (3.2-8.8 overall, 2.1-5.9 MWC) 5. Wyoming (2.3-9.7 overall, 1.6-6.4 MWC) 6. Utah State (2.3-9.7 overall, 1.4-6.6 MWC) MWC West 1. Nevada (10.5-1.5 overall, 7.3-0.7 MWC) 2. San Diego State (10.3-1.7 overall, 6.8-1.2 MWC) 3. Hawaii (7.3-4.7 overall, 5.4-2.6 MWC) 4. Fresno State (4.7-7.3 overall, 3.3-4.7 MWC) 5. San Jose State (2.5-9.5 overall, 1.5-6.5 MWC) 6. UNLV (2.5-9.5 overall, 1.3-6.7 MWC) Pac-12 North 1. Washington State (9-3 overall, 6.6-2.4 Pac-12) 2. Oregon (7.6-4.4 overall, 6.1-2.9 Pac-12) 3. Washington (8.2-3.8 overall, 5.9-3.1 Pac-12) 4. California (5.2-6.8 overall, 3.7-5.3 Pac-12) 5. Stanford (2.1-9.9 overall, 1.9-7.1 Pac-12) 6. Oregon State (2.1-9.9 overall, 0.9-8.1 Pac-12) Pac-12 South 1. Arizona (7.7-4.3 overall, 5.7-3.3 Pac-12) 2. Arizona State (7.2-4.8 overall, 5.6-3.4 Pac-12) 3. UCLA (7.3-4.7 overall, 5.4-3.6 Pac-12) 4. USC (7.4-4.6 overall, 5.4-3.6 Pac-12) 5. Colorado (4.5-7.5 overall, 3.5-5.5 Pac-12) 6. Utah (4.7-7.3 overall, 3.5-5.5 Pac-12) SEC East 1. Missouri (10-2 overall, 6.7-1.3 SEC) 2. Georgia (8.4-3.6 overall, 4.8-3.2 SEC) 3. Tennessee (7.3-4.7 overall, 4.5-3.5 SEC) 4. Kentucky (5.2-6.8 overall, 3-5 SEC) 5. South Carolina (5-7 overall, 2.8-5.2 SEC) 6. Vanderbilt (3.8-8.2 overall, 2.3-5.7 SEC) 7. Florida (4.1-7.9 overall, 2.3-5.7 SEC) SEC West 1. Auburn (10.5-1.5 overall, 7-1 SEC) 2. Alabama (9.7-2.3 overall, 6.4-1.6 SEC) 3. Texas A&M (8-4 overall, 4.7-3.3 SEC) 4. LSU (7.4-4.6 overall, 4.5-3.5 SEC) 5. Mississippi State (6.5-5.5 overall, 3.4-4.6 SEC) 6. Ole Miss (4.7-7.3 overall, 2-6 SEC) 7. Arkansas (4-8 overall, 1.6-6.4 SEC) Sun Belt East 1. Georgia Southern (5.9-6.1 overall, 5.2-2.8 Sun Belt) 2. Georgia State (5.6-6.4 overall, 4.2-3.8 Sun Belt) 3. Coastal Carolina (3.6-8.4 overall, 2.9-5.1 Sun Belt) 4. Troy (3.1-8.9 overall, 2.5-5.5 Sun Belt) 5. Appalachian State (2.6-9.4 overall, 2.4-5.6 Sun Belt) Sun Belt West 1. Texas State (7.9-4.1 overall, 6.3-1.7 Sun Belt) 2. South Alabama (7.3-4.7 overall, 5.7-2.3 Sun Belt) 3. Louisiana-Monroe (4.5-7.5 overall, 4.3-3.7 Sun Belt) 4. Arkansas State (5.4-6.6 overall, 4.1-3.9 Sun Belt) 5. Louisiana-Lafayette (3.3-8.7 overall, 2.4-5.6 Sun Belt) VI. Full Rankings 130. Liberty 129. Tulane 128. UMass 127. Appalachian State 126. Louisiana-Lafayette 125. Troy 124. Coastal Carolina 123. Charlotte 122. Kent State 121. Wyoming 120. UNLV 119. Utah State 118. San Jose State 117. Oregon State 116. Connecticut 115. New Mexico 114. Bowling Green 113. North Carolina 112. West Virginia 111. Middle Tennessee 110. Arkansas State 109. New Mexico State 108. Georgia State 107. Kansas State 106. Louisiana-Monroe 105. Ball State 104. North Texas 103. Buffalo 102. Indiana 101. Georgia Southern 100. Old Dominion 99. Stanford 98. Syracuse 97. Louisiana Tech 96. East Carolina 95. UTEP 94. Marshall 93. Northern Illinois 92. Eastern Michigan 91. Cincinnati 90. Tulsa 89. Florida International 88. Miami (OH) 87. Army 86. Wake Forest 85. South Alabama 84. Houston 83. Iowa State 82. Boise State 81. Iowa 80. Western Kentucky 79. Fresno State 78. Texas State 77. Michigan State 76. Florida Atlantic 75. NC State 74. Texas Tech 73. UTSA 72. Utah 71. California 70. Vanderbilt 69. Arkansas 68. UAB 67. Central Michigan 66. Memphis 65. Akron 64. Colorado 63. Northwestern 62. Ole Miss 61. Illinois 60. Florida 59. Kentucky 58. Ohio 57. Maryland 56. Florida State 55. Baylor 54. Notre Dame 53. Rutgers 52. Louisville 51. South Carolina 50. Georgia Tech 49. UCLA 48. Pittsburgh 47. Texas 46. USF 45. Colorado State 44. Hawaii 43. Virginia Tech 42. Nebraska 41. USC 40. Washington 39. Arizona 38. Mississippi State 37. Arizona State 36. Air Force 35. Minnesota 34. Wisconsin 33. Navy 32. Temple 31. Boston College 30. BYU 29. Oregon 28. Miami (FL) 27. Clemson 26. Southern Miss 25. Toledo 24. Western Michigan 23. Virginia 22. Tennessee 21. Kansas 20. UCF 19. Washington State 18. LSU 17. Michigan 16. SMU 15. Oklahoma 14. Georgia 13. Rice 12. Ohio State 11. Penn State 10. Texas A&M 9. San Diego State 8. Duke 7. Oklahoma State 6. Nevada 5. Purdue 4. Missouri 3. TCU 2. Alabama 1. Auburn
  23. 29 points
    Welcome to another edition of the Chicago Tribune's By the Numbers, a statistically minded look at the contenders and pretenders of the 2021 NFL season. We're through 12 weeks of the season, and every team has 11 games in the books. Some teams are fading, some are surging, and most are right on track heading into the all-important final five. As usual, we'll take a look at the numbers to try and get a sense of where everybody's going to be where the dust settles--and also note where everyone's win projection has moved since last time. Quick note: Strength of played schedule excludes games involving the team in question. Strength of remaining schedule does not--that is, if you've already played 1 of 2 games against a division opponent, that game will be counted in strength of remaining schedule. This is just due to the fact that the former adjustment is easier to put in a spreadsheet than the latter. No blurbs this time due to time constraints, but all the numbers remain. AFC East 1. Miami Dolphins (10-1) Scoring stats: 29.64 PF/game (5th), 15.64 PA/game (1st), +14.00 PD/game (1st) Strength of played schedule: 55-55 (0.500, 13th) Strength of remaining schedule: 21-34 (.382, 30th) Projected record: 13.8-2.2 (Δ -0.2 from midseason) Projected finish: 1st in AFC East, #1 seed in AFC playoffs 2. New York Jets (8-3) Scoring stats: 30.18 PF/game (2nd), 24.82 PA/game (18th), +5.36 PD/game (8th) Strength of played schedule: 48-62 (0.436, 29th) Strength of remaining schedule: 31-24 (.564, 7th) Projected record: 10.6-5.4 (Δ +0.2 from midseason) Projected finish: 2nd in AFC East, #5 seed in AFC playoffs 3. New England Patriots (5-6) Scoring stats: 26.45 PF/game (11th), 25.27 PA/game (20th), +1.18 PD/game (13th) Strength of played schedule: 58-52 (0.527, 9th) Strength of remaining schedule: 25-30 (.455, 22nd) Projected record: 7.6-8.4 (Δ -0.4 from midseason) Projected finish: 3rd in AFC East, miss playoffs, #14 overall pick plus Miami's projected #32 overall pick; Baltimore's projected #13 overall pick unlikely to convey 4. Buffalo Bills (3-8) Scoring stats: 18.09 PF/game (30th), 26.64 PA/game (26th), -8.55 PD/game (29th) Strength of played schedule: 52-58 (0.473, 22nd) Strength of remaining schedule: 30-25 (.545, 8th) Projected record: 4.9-11.1 (Δ -1.4 from midseason) Projected finish: 4th in AFC East, miss playoffs, #5 overall pick, plus Arizona's projected #8 overall pick, plus Houston's projected #12 overall pick AFC North T-1. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) Scoring stats: 21.09 PF/game (25th), 20.45 PA/game (6th), +0.64 PD/game Strength of played schedule: 52-58 (0.473, 22nd) Strength of remaining schedule: 24-31 (.436, 23rd) Projected record: 7.7-8.3 (Δ +0.7 from midseason) Projected finish: 1st in AFC North, #4 seed in AFC playoffs T-1. Baltimore Ravens (5-6) Scoring stats: 24.09 PF/game (16th), 24.55 PA/game (17th), -0.45 PD/game (18th) Strength of played schedule: 55-55 (0.500, 13th) Strength of remaining schedule: 22-33 (.400, 27th) Projected record: 7.5-8.5 (Δ +/- 0.0 from midseason) Projected finish: 2nd in AFC North, miss playoffs, #13 overall pick 3. Cleveland Browns (4-7) Scoring stats: 22.27 PF/game (21st), 22.45 PA/game (12th), -0.18 PD/game (16th) Strength of played schedule: 58-52 (0.527, 9th) Strength of remaining schedule: 21-34 (.382, 30th) Projected record: 6.7-9.3 (Δ +1.5 from midseason) Projected finish: 3rd in AFC North, miss playoffs, #11 overall pick 4. Cincinnati Bengals (2-9) Scoring stats: 22.64 PF/game (20th), 32.09 PA/game (31st), -9.45 PD/game (30th) Strength of played schedule: 49-61 (0.445, 27th) Strength of remaining schedule: 29-26 (.527, 13th) Projected record: 3.6-12.4 (Δ -1.1 from midseason) Projected finish: 4th in AFC North, miss playoffs, #3 overall pick AFC South 1. Tennessee Titans (8-3) Scoring stats: 29.73 PF/game (4th), 23.45 PA/game (13th), +6.27 PD/game (7th) Strength of played schedule: 53-57 (0.482, 18th) Strength of remaining schedule: 23-32 (.418, 25th) Projected record: 11.2-4.8 (Δ +1.6 from midseason) Projected finish: 1st in AFC South, #2 seed in AFC playoffs T-2. Houston Texans (5-6) Scoring stats: 27.82 PF/game (8th), 30.55 PA/game (30th), -2.73 PD/game (23rd) Strength of played schedule: 51-59 (0.464, 25th) Strength of remaining schedule: 32-23 (.582, 5th) Projected record: 6.9-9.1 (Δ +0.6 from midseason) Projected finish: 3rd in AFC South, miss playoffs, #12 overall pick conveyed to Buffalo T-2. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-6) Scoring stats: 29.82 PF/game (3rd), 25.82 PA/game (22nd), +4.0 PD/game (9th) Strength of played schedule: 60-50 (0.545, 6th) Strength of remaining schedule: 27-28 (.491, 18th) Projected record: 7.9-8.1 (Δ -2.1 from midseason) Projected finish: 2nd in AFC South, miss playoffs, #15 overall pick 4. Indianapolis Colts (3-8) Scoring stats: 25.18 PF/game (12th), 28.18 PA/game (27th), -3.00 PD/game (24th) Strength of played schedule: 61-49 (0.555, 4th) Strength of remaining schedule: 30-25 (.545, 8th) Projected record: 5.3-10.7 (Δ -0.8 from midseason) Projected finish: 4th in AFC South, miss playoffs, #7 overall pick conveyed to Los Angeles Chargers AFC West T-1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) Scoring stats: 21.82 PF/game (23rd), 22.00 PA/game (10th), -0.18 PD/game (16th) Strength of played schedule: 53-57 (0.482, 18th) Strength of remaining schedule: 23-32 (.418, 25th) Projected record: 9.6-6.4 (Δ -1.0 from midseason) Projected finish: 2nd in AFC West, #6 seed in AFC playoffs T-1. Las Vegas Raiders (7-4) Scoring stats: 32.09 PF/game (1st), 20.82 PA/game (7th), +11.27 PD/game (3rd) Strength of played schedule: 55-55 (0.500, 13th) Strength of remaining schedule: 27-28 (.491, 18th) Projected record: 10.5-5.5 (Δ -0.9 from midseason) Projected finish: 1st in AFC West, #3 seed in AFC playoffs 3. Denver Broncos (6-5) Scoring stats: 20.18 PF/game (26th), 21.00 PA/game (8th), -0.82 PD/game (19th) Strength of played schedule: 53-57 (0.482, 18th) Strength of remaining schedule: 28-27 (.509, 15th) Projected record: 8.4-7.6 (Δ +0.5 from midseason) Projected finish: 3rd in AFC West, miss playoffs, #17 overall pick 4. Los Angeles Chargers (1-10) Scoring stats: 18.27 PF/game (29th), 33.73 PA/game (32nd), -15.45 PD/game (31st) Strength of played schedule: 44-66 (0.400, 32nd) Strength of remaining schedule: 34-21 (.618, 3rd) Projected record: 2.1-13.9 (Δ +0.9 from midseason) Projected finish: 4th in AFC West, miss playoffs, #2 overall pick plus Indianapolis's projected #7 overall pick Projected AFC Playoffs #3 Las Vegas Raiders (-7) over #6 Kansas City Chiefs #5 New York Jets over #4 Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) #1 Miami Dolphins (-6.5) over #5 New York Jets #3 Las Vegas Raiders over #2 Tennessee Titans (+2) #1 Miami Dolphins (-3) over #3 Las Vegas Raiders ************************************************************************************************************************************ NFC East 1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) Scoring stats: 27.27 PF/game (9th), 19.45 PA/game (5th), +7.82 PD/game (5th) Strength of played schedule: 58-52 (0.527, 9th) Strength of remaining schedule: 22-33 (.400, 27th) Projected record: 11.4-4.6 (Δ -1.1 from midseason) Projected finish: 1st in NFC East, #3 seed in NFC playoffs 2. Dallas Cowboys (7-4) Scoring stats: 24.55 PF/game (14th), 16.64 PA/game (2nd), +7.91 PD/game (4th) Strength of played schedule: 71-39 (0.645, 1st) Strength of remaining schedule: 22-33 (.400, 27th) Projected record: 10.7-5.3 (Δ +0.2 from midseason) Projected finish: 2nd in NFC East, #5 seed in NFC playoffs 3. Washington Football Club (6-5) Scoring stats: 23.91 PF/game (19th), 23.55 PA/game (15th), +0.36 PD/game (15th) Strength of played schedule: 53-57 (0.482, 18th) Strength of remaining schedule: 30-25 (.545, 8th) Projected record: 8.3-7.7 (Δ +0.4 from midseason) Projected finish: 3rd in NFC East, miss playoffs, #16 overall pick 4. New York Giants (1-10) Scoring stats: 13.82 PF/game (32nd), 29.91 PA/game (29th), -16.09 PD/game (32nd) Strength of played schedule: 55-55 (0.500, 13th) Strength of remaining schedule: 34-21 (.618, 3rd) Projected record: 1.9-14.1 (Δ -0.3 from midseason) Projected finish: #4 in NFC East, miss playoffs, #1 overall pick NFC North 1. Green Bay Packers (10-1) Scoring stats: 24.00 PF/game (18th), 16.73 PA/game (3rd), +7.27 PD/game (6th) Strength of played schedule: 47-63 (0.427, 30th) Strength of remaining schedule: 29-26 (.527, 13th) Projected record: 13.0-3.0 (Δ -0.3 from midseason) Projected finish: 1st in NFC North, #1 seed in NFC playoffs 2. Chicago Bears (6-5) Scoring stats: 22.09 PF/game (22nd), 24.36 PA/game (16th), -2.27 PD/game (21st) Strength of played schedule: 46-64 (0.418, 31st) Strength of remaining schedule: 28-27 (.509, 15th) Projected record: 8.5-7.5 (Δ -0.9 from midseason) Projected finish: 2nd in NFC North, miss playoffs, #18 overall pick T-3. Detroit Lions (4-7) Scoring stats: 19.73 PF/game (27th), 22.00 PA/game (10th), -2.27 PD/game (21st) Strength of played schedule: 57-53 (0.518, 12th) Strength of remaining schedule: 26-29 (.473, 21st) Projected record: 6.7-9.3 (Δ +0.3 from midseason) Projected finish: 3rd in NFC North, miss playoffs, #10 overall pick T-3. Minnesota Vikings (4-7) Scoring stats: 21.18 PF/game (24th), 26.36 PA/game (24th), -5.18 PD/game (26th) Strength of played schedule: 60-50 (0.545, 6th) Strength of remaining schedule: 20-35 (.364, 32nd) Projected record: 6.1-9.9 (Δ +0.9 from midseason) Projected finish: 4th in NFC North, miss playoffs, #9 overall pick NFC South T-1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4) Scoring stats: 28.00 PF/game (7th), 25.27 PA/game (20th), +2.73 PD/game (10th) Strength of played schedule: 61-49 (0.555, 4th) Strength of remaining schedule: 27-28 (.491, 18th) Projected record: 9.67-6.33 (Δ +0.6 from midseason) Projected finish: 2nd in NFC South, #6 seed in NFC playoffs T-1. Atlanta Falcons (7-4) Scoring stats: 24.45 PF/game (15th), 21.91 PA/game (9th), +2.55 PD/game (11th) Strength of played schedule: 51-59 (0.464, 25th) Strength of remaining schedule: 35-20 (.636, 2nd) Projected record: 9.2-6.8 (Δ +2.6 from midseason) Projected finish: 3rd in NFC South, miss playoffs, #20 overall pick T-1. Carolina Panthers (7-4) Scoring stats: 27.27 PF/game (9th), 24.91 PA/game (19th), +2.36 PD/game (12th) Strength of played schedule: 66-44 (0.600, 2nd) Strength of remaining schedule: 32-23 (.582, 5th) Projected record: 9.72-6.28 (Δ +0.4 from midseason) Projected finish: 1st in NFC South, #4 seed in NFC playoffs 4. New Orleans Saints (6-5) Scoring stats: 24.91 PF/game (13th), 26.55 PA/game (25th), -1.64 PD/game (20th) Strength of played schedule: 64-46 (0.582, 3rd) Strength of remaining schedule: 24-31 (.436, 23rd) Projected record: 8.7-7.3 (Δ -0.4 from midseason) Projected finish: 4th in NFC South, miss playoffs, #19 overall pick NFC West 1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2) Scoring stats: 29.64 PF/game (5th), 17.36 PA/game (4th), +12.27 PD/game (2nd) Strength of played schedule: 54-56 (0.491, 17th) Strength of remaining schedule: 28-27 (.509, 15th) Projected record: 12.5-3.5 (Δ +1.7 from midseason) Projected finish: #1 in NFC West, #2 seed in NFC playoffs 2. Arizona Cardinals (4-7) Scoring stats: 18.55 PF/game (28th), 26.18 PA/game (23rd), -7.64 PD/game (28th) Strength of played schedule: 49-61 (0.445, 27th) Strength of remaining schedule: 36-19 (.655, 1st) Projected record: 5.6-10.4 (Δ -0.5 from midseason) Projected finish: 2nd in NFC west, miss playoffs, #8 overall pick conveyed to Buffalo, offset by the addition of Seattle's projected #4 overall pick T-3. San Francisco 49ers (3-8) Scoring stats: 24.09 PF/game (16th), 28.36 PA/game (28th), -4.27 PD/game (25th) Strength of played schedule: 59-51 (0.536, 8th) Strength of remaining schedule: 30-25 (.545, 8th) Projected record: 5.1-10.9 (Δ -0.1 from midseason) Projected finish: 3rd in NFC West, miss playoffs, #6 overall pick T-3. Seattle Seahawks (3-8) Scoring stats: 17.64 PF/game (31st), 23.45 PA/game (13th), -5.82 PD/game (27th) Strength of played schedule: 52-58 (0.473, 22nd) Strength of remaining schedule: 30-25 (.545, 8th) Projected record: 4.8-11.2 (Δ -1.6 from midseason) Projected finish: 4th in NFC West, miss playoffs, #4 overall pick conveyed to Arizona Projected NFC Playoffs #3 Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) over #6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers #5 Dallas Cowboys over #4 Carolina Panthers (+2.5) #2 Los Angeles Rams (-3) over #3 Philadelphia Eagles #5 Dallas Cowboys over #1 Green Bay Packers (+2) #2 Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) over #5 Dallas Cowboys ************************************************************************************************************************************ Projected Super Bowl Miami Dolphins (-2) over Los Angeles Rams That does it for this edition of By the Numbers. Until next time, whenever that time may be!
  24. 28 points
    Darman

    BOFA Presents...

    Duke Commander: The Bryce Thompson Story The Downtown Area of West Monroe, Louisiana where Bryce Thompson was raised The story behind Bryce Thompson, the star Quarterback of the Duke University Blue Devil's and 2022 Heisman contender, starts in the small town of West Monroe in Northern Louisiana. Before the rise of Bryce Thompson, West Monroe was mostly known as the home of one of the most popular, and controversial reality TV shows in recent memory. Patriach Phil Robertson and his family, have their business and tv show in West Monroe The Robertson family, who were the stars of the show Duck Dynasty and owners of Duck Commander, a hunting and apparel company in the city, were the headlining force in this city. “When I came to initially scout Bryce Thompson when he was in high school, all the kids were almost all wearing one of two things” Duke Football Quarterbacks Coach Mark White says. “During the week, all of the kids we'd see kids in fake Robertson beards and fully decked out camo outfits. But on gameday, it was all Bryce Thompson gear.” The quiet before the storm at West Monroe High School Gamedays at West Monroe High School was always the main event on Friday nights. West Monroe is a small southern town, but the High School is a powerhouse in the state. “We've seen a lot of good talent come through this area, and play at our football stadium. But I think all of us here could tell it was different,” West Monroe High School coach Bobby Lee Reynolds says of the level of attention given to Bryce Thompson's football team. “From the moment that young man stepped on campus, we knew we had something special.” While people in West Monroe knew that Bryce Thompson would be special, it seemed that College powerhouses around the country had not been made aware. In Bryce Thompson's recruitment, many powerhouses across the south east, including Louisiana State, did not make much of an impression on the young Quarterback. Bryce Thompson's favorite High School Teammate Lawrence Arnold “We were disappointed at some of the lack of attention given to Bryce. Obviously now, Duke seems like the perfect pick, but at the time, I don't think anyone was looking to play football at Duke,” says Bryce Thompson's cousin, teammate, and best friend Lawrence Arnold. Lawrence wasn't wrong. Few top prospects in the country saw Duke as an appealing place to continue their careers. They had never made it to a bowl game, and had been among the worst Power 5 programs in the country. Theresa Thompson, the mother of Bryce Thompson “Don't get me wrong,” Theresa Thompson, the mother of Bryce Thompson says, “Duke is an excellent school and Coach Darman and his staff made us feel like Duke was the right fit. Bryce would never say this, but being ignored by the college football powerhouses put a major chip on his shoulder.” Another chip would soon be added to the young Quarterback's shoulders. Another highly ranked recruit, Kyle Jefferson, the brother of UNC star and NFL Quartback A.J. Jefferson was also lightly recruited coming out of high school. He too, decided to attend Duke University. “The coaches at Duke were always honest with us,” Bryce Thompson began, “We always knew that there was a chance that both of us could end up at the same school. Of course, you can only play one Quarterback at a time, so we both kinda knew what would happen if we went to the same place.” Left to right, Cooper Abrams, Bryce Thompson, Kyle Jefferson in off season workouts But of course, both players ended up on the Blue Devils team, which set off a round of speculation over who would start, and who would Redshirt. And with this speculation came the question. Which one of these potential stars would stay and which will transfer. “We knew going into the year that one of the two players would probably transfer,” Coach Darman says, “It is the very nature of the position. Both of these guys had NFL aspirations, and they knew that staying as a backup would hurt their chances of playing on the next level.” Kyle Jefferson had graduated High School a semester early and enrolled at Duke in the spring semester, which gave him a leg up on Bryce Thompson in the three way QB competition between Thompson, Jefferson, and the previous year starter Cooper Abrams. Abrams had led Duke to a record 5 wins the year before Jefferson and Thompson arrived on campus, and him losing his position was no guarantee. “The thing we respected about the staff at Duke, is that they made no promises about playing time.” Theresa Thompson says, “A school with Duke's pedigree easily could have promised my son that he would be the day one starter.” Coach Darman and his staff only promised the two QBs one thing. An opportunity. Where Jefferson shined in off-season workouts, Thompson struggled adjusting to the college game and ended up redshirting his freshman year. Jefferson later earned the starting spot, where he would have freshmen struggles, but also show signs of potential greatness. Bryce Thompson on the sideline watching his teammates during his Redshirt year “As much as it hurt Bryce to sit out, in retrospect, all it did was make him hungry and make him ready,” Bobby Lee Reynolds says. Reynolds had kept in close contact with Thompson during his struggled as a freshman in college, and his declaration on Thompson's readiness and hunger proved to be true. The people of West Monroe still followed Bryce Thompson during this time, many speculating that he would transfer closer to home, maybe to Louisiana State or some other SEC school. However, after the conclusion of a disappointing Duke season, where the team went 4-8, Duke announced that their QB competition between Thompson and Jefferson would be wide open, and reports out of Durham indicated that Bryce Thompson was ready. “When we heard that Bryce was going to lead the First Team offense in Duke's spring game, the whole town was buzzing,” Lawrence Arnold says, “I had talked to Bryce a lot over that spring, and we knew that he had the ‘It factor’, but we didn't know if his coaches did.” On the heels of an impressive spring, Bryce Thompson had suddenly become the leader in the Quarterback conversation. Bryce Thompson in the 2020 Duke football Spring Game Bryce Thompson went on to have an outstanding performance in the Spring Game, which ended up cementing him as the starter for Duke, and eventually led to the transfer of Kyle Jefferson to the Junior College ranks, and later to Purdue. “It was a bittersweet moment when we found out that Kyle was transferring,” Thompson says, “Me, Mike, Cooper, and Kyle had all grown close to each other. But we knew that Kyle was still hungry for another opportunity. Even if it was somewhere else.” Bryce Thompson as the star QB of Duke Since that spring game in 2020, Bryce Thompson has not looked back. Thompson has led his team to three consecutive bowl game appearances, one conference championship and a chance at a second, and one playoff appearance. Already he is the all time leader at Duke for a handful of things. He has the most wins, passing Touchdowns, and yards in Duke history. This season, his best yet, has put him in contention for the Heisman and makes him a potential first round pick at the Quarterback position either this year or next year if he decides to stay for his senior year. Now, as Bryce Thompson Duke jerseys flood the streets of West Monroe, the people of the city remain excited over what Thompson can still do at Duke. They also look forward to what jersey he will be wearing after his name is called in the draft. “Bryce's story isn't one of someone who had no doubt in his success” Lawrence Alexander says, “Bryce knew he was good, and he knew he was capable of playing at that level. But his story is one of perseverance and taking advantage of the opportunities given to you, no matter how disappointing it may have seemed at the beginning.” Bryce Thompson fans hope he can add this trophy to his trophy case As fans around the world have their eyes on the Heisman race, Bryce Thompson seems unfazed as his focus is on winning championships, “Whatever happens with the Heisman will happen. I'm just trying to add more championships to Duke's trophy case.”
  25. 28 points
    Darman

    BOFA Heisman Watch

    The most prestigious individual award in college football, the Heisman Memorial Trophy, is awarded each year to the best player in college football every year. The award has always skewed to offensive players, with an offensive player taking the award each year in CFBHC history. The award has been given to one running back, and eight quarterbacks. We are taking a look at who BOFA thinks are the top Heisman candidates, why they have a good chance, and what could hold them back from winning the award. The Front Runner Who has been the unquestioned breakout star of college football this year? The answer to many people is easy. Troy McMurray, or TMac burst into the scene this year, putting up video game numbers. Statistically, TMac is the favorite for the Heisman; however, there are historical factors that may work against him in his bid for the Trophy. Pros: He's really good. That feels like an understatement. TMac is great. TMac leads the country in passer rating, at a 188.42 clip - higher than any Heisman winner ever - and, if he won, he would be the first player to both lead the country in passer rating and win the Heisman. All of that only displays his ability as a passer. He is also the leading rusher among quarterbacks, with 636 rushing yards, at 79.5 yards per game, and 9.49 Yards per carry. That last number is first among all players with more than 10 rush attempts this year. That's pretty good, right? Then you have to take into account that among Heisman contender QBs, he has the least-experienced and least-talented supporting cast in the country. His top 4 pass catchers this year are all true freshmen. His running back, while more experienced, is going pro in something other than sports. With his 277.38 yards per game passing combined with his 79.5 yards on the ground, he is averaging 356.88 yards per game by himself. Which is more than 100 yards per game more than the Texas Tech offense, led by Solomon McLaughlin, puts up per game. Cons: There is only one true knock against TMac. And that is his record. Currently at 5-4, he would have the worst record of any Heisman winner if he won the award. He's lost games against good opponents this year, and the games he lost were mostly against non-conference opponents. TMac had a subpar game against a good Oregon team on the road, which takes Stanford out of the conference championship race. His struggles in this game make it hard for him to control his own destiny going into the last few weeks of the season, fair or unfair. Heisman Winner Comparison: There is no direct comparison to TMac. If TMac wins the Heisman, it will be the best season of any Heisman winner ever. Period. However, in the spirit of this article, I must try. There have been four scramblers to ever win the Heisman. Dylan Bishop's Syracuse team is the closest by record, as they themselves lost three games during his run. While Bishop's Syracuse team missed the Championship Game, Bishop also did not have the caliber of season that TMac is having. Bishop put up similar yardage, but his passer rating trailed TMac's by nearly 40 points at just 148, which is similar to that of Tennessee’s Adrian Goldson (though Goldson is not a ground threat). Both Bishop and TMac carried their teams during the year and made the most of lackluster talent. Bottom Line: TMac is both probably the betting favorite, and possibly the player with the narrowest path to the Heisman. It doesn't feel fair as TMac is having the best QB season this year, but the path to the Trophy has greatly narrowed. Despite his incredible numbers, that in a fair world would win him a Heisman easily, he has little margin for error. If TMac somehow makes it to the conference championship, the debate should be over. But with this loss to a ranked Oregon team on the road, and two games remaining against tough opponents, his path has narrowed. If he wants to win the Heisman, he will most likely have to win out. Next in Line The star Quarterback from Duke is having a second strong season for the Blue Devils. The third-year starter has been one of the most effective QBs in the country, both in the air and on the ground. While there is speculation that this may be his last season in Durham, Heisman voters are focused on what Bryce Thompson will do to finish out this year. Pros: For a second consecutive season, Bryce Thompson has been a dominant player. He is second among the Heisman Watch candidates in passer rating and also second in rush yards from a quarterback. He has amassed 2,945 total yards this season, over 327 yards per game, with only three turnovers to his name. He has also combined for 29 touchdowns this year. Duke is on a path to play in the ACC championship for a second consecutive year, where they would face off against the Clemson Tigers and fellow Heisman contender AW3, which will give Thompson a final attempt to make his case to the Heisman voters. Cons: The Nevada game will be Bryce Thompson's biggest argument against him winning the Heisman. While Thompson has put up stellar numbers against weaker competition, he struggled against Nevada, and as a result, Duke found themselves with their only loss of the year. His recent win against Virginia Tech is the best win his team has had, and compared to other Heisman contenders, this pales in comparison. There isn't a real statistical argument to Bryce Thompson to winning the Heisman, but losing to your best non-conference opponents and only having one truly good win is a handicap on his chances. Heisman Winner Comparison: There have been three times that two QBs played each other in the conference championship, and also received top five Heisman votes. Only one of these times, did one of the two players win the Heisman. That was Missouri’s Tucker Dowden last year, who faced off against another player on this list, Marcus Black, in the conference championship, and bested his Auburn team 41-38 in a classic game. Since AW3 and Bryce Thompson are so tied together, the best comparison is to the pair of SEC stars. Both QBs were on playoff teams and put up phenomenal stats. Black wasn't the running threat that AW3 or Thompson are, but passing wise, AW3 and Thompson compare to Black. Tucker Dowden won both the SEC Championship game and the Heisman, and that precedent - winning the conference title - may hold true in 2022 as well. Bottom Line: Duke only has one more game that is a great chance to make a strong argument for Bryce Thompson's Heisman chances. If Duke wins two of their last three games, they will make it to the conference championship game to face off with Clemson. There is a good chance that a strong performance by Bryce Thompson will be enough to push him to the top. Even in a win, if Thompson struggles against a good Clemson defense, it is hard to imagine him winning. Hard to win the Heisman if you struggle against your two best opponents, especially in a marquee game like the ACC Championship game. The man well known for the “AW3 to me” jokes, the man has been able to live up to every single piece of hype surrounding the kid. People love the new shiny toys that are new to the college football scene, and AW3 fits that bill. The rushing and passing phenom at a very successful Clemson team deserves every bit of hype towards him, even as other players may seem to be surpassing him. Pros: While not as much of a prolific passer at Clemson as fellow new shiny toy Troy McMurray is at Stanford, AW3 is still a stellar passer. He’s got an extremely solid 166.83 passer rating, which in any other year would be considered top tier. The very solid AW3 has a 68.8 completion percentage to go with a 17-4 TD-INT ratio. He’s also got a stellar 8.06 YPC when he does run the ball, which he has 52 times for 419 yards. His Clemson team has been steamrolling every team they have played, as Mr. Williams III has not lost a single time in his college career. AW3 has a great chance to pad his stats against weaker opponents, and will have a showcase game in the conference championship, most likely against Duke and fellow contender Bryce Thompson. Cons: The hype around AW3 peaked at the beginning of the year and hasn't seemed to be maintained. AW3 is a victim of the tough losses that Mississippi State has taken. The Bulldogs are most likely a top 25 team in any other conference, but couldn't pull out wins against enough of their conference opponents to be safely entrenched in the top 25. This greatly weakened the non-conference schedule of the Clemson Tigers, which may be the biggest thing holding AW3 back. AW3 also falls behind his fellow quarterbacks in several of the counting stats. Of the six quarterbacks on this list, AW3 is fifth in passer rating, and third in rushing yards. These aren't bad positions to be in for his Clemson team, but for the Heisman race, it may drag him down. Heisman Winner Comparison: Like Bryce Thompson and Tucker Dowden last season, AW3's Heisman hopes will be tied to his performance against Duke, if Duke makes it to the big game. Last year's SEC championship between Heisman contenders received an outsized amount of attention and went a long way to determining who won the Trophy. While it is possible that the result would have been similar last year if the SEC championship final was flipped, Dowden's win against Auburn was a major statement for his Heisman candidacy and the same could prove to AW3 against Bryce Thompson. Bottom Line: The potential matchup between Duke and Clemson in the ACC Championship will have major implications. Besides bragging rights, a conference championship, and a potential playoff berth, this matchup could determine who wins the Heisman. Of the QBs remaining, AW3 is the only QB who has clinched a Conference Championship berth in a Power 5 conference. Eric McLean’s Rice team will make his conference championship game, and Bryce Thompson's Duke team is likely to make it. Both Storm Whitaker's Mississippi State team and TMac’s Stanford team will probably miss it, and there is a reasonable chance that Marcus Black and his Auburn team will be watching from the cheap seats as well. AW3's Heisman chances go up dramatically if Auburn misses out, and the Heisman voters’ eyes are directly on Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Marcus Black entered the season as possibly the Heisman favorite and the favorite to be the first QB off the board. However, as the season has gone on, his stock for both have taken a hit. However, Black has the advantage of playing for one of the 3 best teams in college football and will have the spotlight on him more than any player on this list through the end of his conference schedule. Pros: If anyone at the QB position is poised to have multiple “Heisman Moments”, it is Marcus Black. While he does have an impressive performance against TCU, early season performances are often forgotten towards the end of the year. Marcus Black's Auburn team finish their regular season against LSU, Georgia, and Alabama who all ranked in the top 25 in last week's poll. They'll also face off against a team likely to be ranked in the SEC championship game, if they are able to make it there. Those are 4 potentially prime time games, that Marcus Black could potentially shine in. Marcus Black has had a fine season this year as well. He has over 2,600 yards, a TD to interception ratio of 21 to 6, and carries a passer rating of 160.55. He has also added three touchdowns on the ground, though he hasn't been a huge factor on the ground in the yardage department. The best argument for his Heisman candidacy, is that he will be the best QB on arguably the best team, which is always a boost. Cons: While Black may be the QB on the best team, recent history has shown that being that may not be enough. The last three Heisman winners, Tucker Dowden, Mohammed Foster, and Dylan Bishop, simply put up video game numbers on teams that were not the best teams in the nation. In those three years, Matt Jones, Tanner Bowman, and, either Bowman again or Jamel Armstrong, would win the award for best QB on the best team, and none of them won the Trophy. Only two players who won the Heisman have also been drafted number one overall, though Heisman winner Brian Brown only fell due to injury concerns. Will Black, who has put up good numbers this year, be able to hold off challengers like Troy McMurray? The history seems to be against him, but there isn't a QB that seems to be shocking the world and having a good enough season to keep Black from being in the convo as the best QB on the best team. Heisman Winner Comparison: Todd Jennings of Penn State led his team to the national championship game before falling to Norris Brooksheer in the big game. That was the only loss in Jennings’ Heisman winning season. He came the closest of anyone to win the Heisman and the National Championship in the same season. Like Black, there were QBs who put up better numbers in the season, including the future Heisman winner Norris Brooksheer. In 2015, Jennings put up 33 TDs and 6 INTs, with a passer rating of 156.84, and averaged 234.62 yards per game. Black trails Jennings pace for TD/INT ratio for passing, but his rushing TDs put him on top of Jennings ratio. His passer rating north of 160 outpaced Jennings, as does his 290 yards per game passing. Bottom Line: Marcus Black probably isn't the number two in the Heisman race right now, but he has the best chance of any player to take TMac's trophy if Stanford stumbles to end the season. His team should be the favorite in two of their regular season games remaining, and face their toughest opponent at home. He has the most opportunities to put on a show for the Heisman voters, but he still needs to win out to keep his Heisman hopes alive. Even then, if Stanford wins out or if other contenders like the ACC duo of Bryce Thompson or Akiem Williams III win out, there may not be a ton of precedent to suggest a Black win. Outside Looking In When it is all said and done, Solomon might possibly be the greatest running back prospect we've seen enter the draft. But for now, we get to enjoy him in college. In a world where the QBs don't get outsized amounts of attention, Solomon might be the favorite for the Heisman. We live in a QB world, but Solomon is still among the contenders to win the Heisman. Pros: Solomon is the best running back in the country. He leads the nation in rush yards per game, at 157.88, and also holds a remarkable 6.01 YPC. He also leads the country in total rush yards. This has been achieved against a P5 schedule, which gives him an edge on DeSean Madison of WMU. Solomon has been consistent, with 100 yard games in each of the games his Texas Tech team has played, despite defenses throwing everything they can at him. Cons: Only one running back has won the Heisman, which puts Solomon already at long odds. QBs are judged more by their win totals than any other position, but even Auburn's running back Jaz Durant had a 12-2 record. Texas Tech has had a solid year so far, but it would be surprising to see them match that mark. He's had his issues with fumbles, but with how much he carries the ball this isn't a huge concern. Heisman winner comparison: As for all running backs, we will compare Solomon to Auburn's Heisman winner Jaz Durant. Solomon so far is averaging 157.88 yards per game and 6.01 yards per carry through 8 games. The 157.88 yards puts him on pace for 1,895 yards in a 12 game season. This would actually be behind the pace of Jaz Durant, who averaged nearly 161 yards per game, for a total of 2,252 yards in 14 games, and had a significantly higher yards per carry. That being said, Durant had Jacory Kessler garnering attention in that season, where Solomon has to do pretty much everything for his team’s offense. Bottom Line: Solomon's NFL potential is the biggest boost to his chances. Solomon is in the hunt to be the best RB prospect ever, and produces like it. But the odds are long. While RBs are not judged by records in the same way that QBs are, the precedent says that a QB will take it, and with the numbers the QBs are putting up, Solomon's Heisman chances don't seem as strong as in a perfect world they would. If a player outside the Power 5 conferences wins this award, it will most likely be the star QB from Rice. Rice doubles as one of the top draft prospects at the QB position with Heisman candidates Marcus Black and Troy McMurray, and despite the stature of his conference, Eric McLean has put himself in position to be in the conversation for the 1st QB off the board. But all of that may not be enough for him to take the Heisman. Pros: The biggest pro to McLean's chances are his pure numbers. He is the current leader in passing yards in college, both in actual yardage and yards per game. He is second in touchdown passes, behind only Storm Whitaker. He is the alpha on a team that is the dominant power in the CUSA. He's had to carry a lot of the load by himself, as Rice's run game hasn't taken off this year. Though the CUSA is not a strong conference, McLean has still put up good numbers against his non conference opponents. Against his non-conference slate, McLean has a 67% completion percentage, and has thrown for 1,383 yards, 14 TDs and 2 interceptions. In a 12 game schedule, those marks would put him at around 4152 yards passing, 42 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Cons: McLean has a very flawed Heisman argument. While overall he has produced against his non-conference competition, he stacked his numbers against a bad Houston team and a mediocre Eastern Michigan team. And against Alabama and TCU, he struggled. These two teams are among the five best in the country, so it feels a bit unfair to judge him too hard based on those performances. McLean completed 57.89% of his passed against these two teams, averaging 264 yards and 1 touchdown and half an interception per game. Performances against these two teams would most likely be forgiven if McLean had faced more mid-tier competition. However, the CUSA doesn't allow much opportunity for that. Rice is the highest ranked team in the conference at #24, and no other team received votes in the most recent coaches poll. Rice is regarded as having a major talent advantage in their conference, which helps McLean put up monster numbers against inferior talent. Heisman Winner Comparison: Only one player from a non power conference has ever won the Heisman. That was Brian Brown of Boise State. That was in a much different college football landscape, and that Boise State team was a contender to win the championship. There has also only been one Heisman winner to lead college football in passing yards, but it is hard to argue that McLean had a better season or even a comparable season to Mohammed Foster's Heisman-winning season. Bottom Line: There really isn't a path for McLean to win the Heisman. Playing two of the top 5 teams in the country, and not excelling against them hurts his chances. McLean padded his stats against over-matched opponents, and struggled against better opponents. If McLean had played teams closer to Rice's talent level and performed well against them, we might be having a different conversation. However, the competition at the QB position is too tough, and the flaws in McLean's resume are too great for him to be a contender for this trophy. Probably the most surprising of the contenders, the Mississippi State redshirt Freshman is lighting up the statsheets so far this year. It's his first year starting, which makes his surprising season both unexpected and more impressive than some of his fellow Heisman candidates. There has been only one Heisman winner to win the trophy before their junior year, and none have won it as a freshman. Storm Whitaker looks to create his own precedent. Pros: By just about any measure, Storm Whitaker has been one of the 5 best college quarterbacks this season. He is second in college in passing yards, with 3,100 yards, first in passing touchdowns, with 30, and fourth in passer rating among QBs with over 200 attempts, and he has only thrown 5 interceptions this year on top of that. He has done this despite facing tough competition both in conference and out of conference. Like Black, Storm has the potential for prime time games to end the season, as he finishes off his SEC schedule. Cons: Mississippi State has played close games against top competition. For the most part they have ended up on the wrong side of those results. Fair or unfair, quarterbacks will be judged on their record, and no Heisman winner has been on a team with as many losses as Whitaker's Mississippi State team has had by this point in the season. Critics of Whitaker's Heisman chances have pointed to his star trio of NFL-caliber receivers as a reason his Heisman hopes should be tempered. As noted above, only one sophomore and zero freshman have won the Heisman, which makes people question if Whitaker can overcome his older, and more recognizable competitors for this award. Whitaker is also not seen as a potential NFLHC starter, which is a far departure from most of the previous Heisman winners. Heisman Winner Comparison: Probably the most surprising Heisman winner in the history of CFBHC was Syracuse's Dylan Bishop. Like Whitaker, he wasn't seen as a future NFLHC starter at the QB position, and seemed to come out of nowhere to shock the world with video game numbers. Bishop was more of a dual-threat player than Whitaker is, while Whitaker is the superior passer. While Bishop led his team to the better season, Whitaker's Mississippi State team may not be too far off of the record that the 2019 Syracuse Orange team achieved. Ultimately, it feels like the competition for Heisman is higher this year than in 2019 when Bishop won, and while Bishop had garnered plenty of attention by midseason, Whitaker has not been talked about as much as his play has warranted. Bottom Line: Whitaker has received less attention for the Heisman than he's deserved. He does have stellar receivers, sure, but he's still having a remarkable season getting the ball to them. His path to the Heisman is relatively narrow compared to the upper echelon of the contenders. That extra game in the conference championship is huge for Heisman contenders and Whitaker's record will hurt him as a contender. Just Missed RB DeSean Madison, Western Michigan DE Deontre Graham, Alabama RB Maurice White, Oklahoma QB David Edmondson, San Diego State
  26. 28 points
    With five weeks remaining in the regular season, in addition to the conference championship slate, it's due time to start thinking about which teams will fall just short of the postseason, which teams will slip through the back door into their own week-long football frenzy, and which teams will be destined for a shot at the summit of college football. Here I'll try to outline the teams with the likeliest shots at making the 8-team College Football playoffs as well as the probably destinations for every other team I personally project to make the field. A few notes before we kick off: All of these projections are subjective. If you disagree with a match-up or a destination or a team in the playoff field, feel free to state your thoughts in the replies. This is simply how I see the season playing out, which of course will change when I release the next set of these. The Group of Five is easily the hardest to project since they, unlike the Power 5 conferences, don't have their pecking order as, well, a pecking order. These will vary wildly until the official list is out. Projections are done in a spreadsheet that tracks every game for every team on every week. This also includes a subjective poll to account for the new changes to the playoffs. And finally, I'd like to give a thanks to Bad Online Football Amateurs, or BOFA, for sponsoring me to write this article. BOFA, as the premier media outlet in the country, aims to bring quality, accurate, and discussion-provoking media to the masses. Our first stop is a look at the playoffs picture. While I can't account for the behind-the-scenes computer polls, I can get a general idea of how the Top 8 will shape out at the end of the season. Therefore, here's how my current Top 8 pans out. Quarterfinal #1 (New Orleans, LA) Playoff #1 (Conf. Champ) vs. Playoff #8 (At-Large) Clemson Tigers (Proj. 13-0, 1st ACC) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (Proj. 11-1, 3rd Big Ten) Clemson: ACC Champ, lone P5 unbeaten, wins on Duke and Mississippi State, #1 team in poll entering the CCGs Penn State: lone loss to Michigan, wins on Ohio State, Michigan State, and Pittsburgh, #11 team entering the CCGs Quarterfinal #2 (Miami Gardens, FL) Playoff #2 (Conf. Champ) vs. Playoff #7 (At-Large) Auburn Tigers (Proj. 12-1, 1st SEC) vs. Oregon Ducks (Proj. 12-1, 1st PAC) Auburn: SEC Champ, wins on Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia (x2), and TCU, #2 team entering the CCGs Oregon: Pac-12 Champ, lone loss to Texas A&M, wins on USC (x2), Washington, and Stanford, #9 team entering the CCGs Quarterfinal #3 (Arlington, TX) Playoff #3 (Conf. Champ) vs. Playoff #6 (At-Large) TCU Horned Frogs (Proj. 12-1, 1st Big 12) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (Proj. 11-1, 2nd SEC) TCU: Big 12 Champ, lone loss to Auburn, wins on Oklahoma (x2), Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech, #3 team entering the CCGs Alabama: lone loss to Auburn, wins on Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Michigan, #5 team entering the CCGs Quarterfinal #4 (Glendale, AZ) Playoff #4 (At-Large) vs. Playoff #5 (At-Large) Michigan Wolverines (Proj. 12-1, 1st Big Ten) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (Proj. 13-0, 1st MWC) Michigan: Big 10 Champ, lone loss to Alabama, wins on Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State, #4 team entering the CCGs SDSU: one of two unbeatens, wins on Hawaii and Nevada, #6 team entering the CCGs Two quick notes on the field: Auburn will have by far the best resume of the teams in the field, but they'll also have the wackiest loss (Mississippi State). Voters will decide between an unblemished Clemson with a softer schedule or an Auburn team that has taken down the best but faltered down the line against a team they arguably should've beaten. Clemson takes top spot because I imagine voters will favor the unbeaten P5 team. San Diego State and Alabama offers a similar argument, although Alabama's loss is to Auburn in what is essentially a toss-up game. That's not why this note is here though. Alabama played Michigan to open the season, so it makes sense to avoid a repeat in the quarterfinal. That does pose the problem of a potential Auburn vs. TCU/Bama semifinal as Auburn will have played both of those teams. Personally not sure how this pans out but this is my take on it. And here is my projected Top 16 with special emphasis on spots 9 and 10, the two teams that I think have the best shot of making the playoffs over Penn State for that coveted eighth spot, though that's an argument for a different article. Proj. Top 8 1 Clemson 2 Auburn 3 TCU 4 Michigan 5 San Diego State 6 Alabama 7 Oregon 8 Penn State Outside Looking In 9 Texas A&M 10 Oklahoma 11 Duke 12 Pittsburgh 13 Purdue 14 Hawaii 15 Georgia 16 USC Now without further ado, here are the rest of the bowl games. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * = fill-in due to conference being unable to fill their slot ^ = 5-7 team New Orleans Bowl New Orleans, LA C-USA vs. Sun Belt UAB Blazers (Proj. 7-5, 6th C-USA) vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (Proj. 6-6, 4th SBC) Camellia Bowl Montgomery, AL MAC vs. Sun Belt Akron Zips (Proj. 8-4, 5th MAC) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (Proj. 8-4, 3rd SBC) Disney Bowl Orlando, FL AAC vs. Sun Belt UCF Knights (Proj. 8-4, 5th AAC) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (Proj. 9-4, 1st SBC) Arizona Bowl Tucson, AZ MWC vs. Sun Belt Air Force Falcons (Proj. 6-6, 5th MWC) vs. *Eastern Michigan Eagles (Proj. 6-6, 7th MAC) Gasparilla Bowl St. Petersburg, FL AAC vs. C-USA South Florida Bulls (Proj. 6-6, 7th AAC) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs (Proj. 7-5, 7th C-USA) Boca Raton Bowl Boca Raton, FL C-USA vs. MAC Florida Atlantic Owls (Proj. 8-4, 5th C-USA) vs. Toledo Rockets (Proj. 8-4, 4th MAC) Bahamas Bowl Nassau, Bahamas AAC vs. C-USA Temple Owls (Proj. 8-5, 3rd AAC) vs. UTSA Roadrunners (Proj. 8-4, 3rd C-USA) Detroit Bowl Detroit, MI ACC Tier 2 vs. Big Ten #8 Louisville Cardinals (Proj. 6-6, 9th ACC) vs. *Central Michigan Chippewas (Proj. 9-3, 2nd MAC) Heart of Dallas Bowl Dallas, TX C-USA vs. Big Ten #9 Rice Owls (Proj. 11-2, 1st C-USA) vs. *BYU Cougars (Proj. 8-4) -C-USA champ hands pick their bowl from the list of C-USA affiliated bowls Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Boise, ID MAC vs. MWC Ohio Bobcats (Proj. 8-5, 3rd MAC) vs. Boise State Broncos (Proj. 6-6, 6th MWC) Bay Area Bowl Santa Clara, CA Big Ten #7 vs. Pac-12 #4 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Proj. 6-6, 9th Big Ten) vs. Stanford Cardinal (Proj. 8-4, 5th PAC) Cactus Bowl Phoenix, AZ Big 12 #6 vs. Pac-12 #7 *Colorado State Rams (Proj. 7-6, 4th MWC) vs. Washington State Cougars (Proj. 6-6, 8th PAC) New Mexico Bowl Albuquerque, NM C-USA vs. MWC UTEP Miners (Proj. 8-4, 4th C-USA) vs. ^UCLA Bruins (Proj. 5-7, 9th PAC) Texas Bowl Houston, TX Big 12 #5 vs. SEC Tier 1 Texas Longhorns (Proj. 6-6, 6th Big 12) vs. Missouri Tigers (Proj. 7-5, 9th SEC) Sun Bowl El Paso, TX ACC Tier 1 vs. Pac-12 #5 Virginia Tech Hokies (Proj. 9-3, 6th ACC) vs. Arizona Wildcats (Proj. 7-5, 6th PAC) Tampa Bowl Tampa, FL Big Ten #3 vs. SEC Tier 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (Proj. 9-3, 5th Big Ten) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Proj. 8-4, 7th SEC) Pinstripe Bowl Bronx, NY ACC Tier 1 vs. Big Ten #6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Proj. 7-5) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (Proj. 7-5, 8th Big Ten) Independence Bowl Shreveport, LA ACC Tier 2 vs. SEC Tier 2 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Proj. 6-6, 8th ACC) vs. *Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Proj. 8-4, 4th AAC) Birmingham Bowl Birmingham, AL AAC vs. SEC Tier 2 SMU Mustangs (Proj. 7-5, 6th AAC) vs. ^West Virginia Mountaineers (Proj. 5-7, 7th Big 12) Alabama Bowl Mobile, AL MAC vs. Sun Belt Northern Illinois Huskies (Proj. 6-6, 6th MAC) vs. South Alabama Jaguars (Proj. 8-4, 2nd SBC) Liberty Bowl Memphis, TN Big 12 #5 vs. AAC Kansas Jayhawks (Proj. 6-6, 6th Big 12) vs. ^Boston College Eagles (Proj. 5-7, 10th ACC) Armed Forces Bowl Fort Worth, TX AAC vs. Big 12 #7 *Army Black Knights (Proj. 7-5) vs. *Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (Proj. 7-5, 8th C-USA) Music City Bowl Nashville, TN ACC Tier 1/Big Ten #5 vs. SEC Tier 1 Illinois Fighting Illini (Proj. 8-4, 7th Big Ten) vs. Florida Gators (Proj. 6-6, 10th SEC) Alamo Bowl San Antonio, TX Big 12 #2 vs. Pac-12 #2 Texas Tech Red Raiders (Proj. 9-3, 3rd Big 12) vs. Colorado Buffaloes (Proj. 9-3, 3rd PAC) Gator Bowl Jacksonville, FL ACC Tier 1/Big Ten #5 vs. SEC Tier 1 Florida State Seminoles (Proj. 9-3, 5th ACC) vs. LSU Tigers (Proj. 7-5, 8th SEC) Military Bowl Annapolis, MD AAC vs. ACC Tier 2 Navy Midshipmen (Proj. 9-3, 2nd AAC) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Proj. 7-5, 7th ACC) Hawai'i Bowl Honolulu, HI C-USA vs. MWC Florida International Golden Panthers (Proj. 9-4, 2nd C-USA) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (Proj. 8-4, 3rd MWC) Charlotte Bowl Charlotte, NC ACC Tier 1 vs. SEC Tier 1 Virginia Cavaliers (Proj. 9-3, 4th ACC) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (Proj. 8-4, 6th SEC) Citrus Bowl Orlando, FL ACC #1/Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #3 Purdue Boilermakers (Proj. 9-3, 4th Big Ten) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (Proj. 9-3, 5th SEC) Frisco Bowl Frisco, TX AAC vs. MAC Memphis Tigers (Proj. 11-2, 1st AAC) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (Proj. 10-3, 1st MAC) Holiday Bowl San Diego, CA Big Ten #4 vs. Pac-12 #3 Michigan State Spartans (Proj. 9-3, 6th Big Ten) vs. Washington Huskies (Proj. 8-4, 4th PAC) Las Vegas Bowl Las Vegas, NV MWC #1 vs. Pac-12 #6 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (Proj. 10-2, 2nd MWC) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (Proj. 6-6, 7th PAC) Orlando Bowl Orlando, FL ACC #2 vs. Big 12 #3 Pittsburgh Panthers (Proj. 9-3, 3rd ACC) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Proj. 9-3, 4th Big 12) Orange Bowl Miami Gardens, FL ACC #1 vs. Big Ten #2/SEC #2 Duke Blue Devils (Proj. 11-2, 2nd ACC) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (Proj. 10-3, 4th SEC) Rose Bowl Pasadena, CA Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1 Nebraska Cornhuskers (Proj. 9-4, 2nd Big Ten) vs. USC Trojans (Proj. 11-2, 2nd PAC) Sugar Bowl New Orleans, LA Big 12 #1 vs. SEC #1 Oklahoma Sooners (Proj. 11-2, 2nd Big 12) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (Proj. 10-2, 3rd SEC) *Editor's Note: I'll look to pump these out every two weeks so that the final one comes after the conference championship games. Be sure to reply if you have questions or if you'd like for your voice to be heard! Causter out.
  27. 28 points
    Soluna

    Happy Thanksgiving

    From me, to you and all your families, have a happy thanksgiving. Enjoy your day, watch some football, eat a lot of food, and argue with your uncle about politics.
  28. 28 points
    HAFFnHAFF

    Adoption Story and AMA

    In September 2016 my wife and I decided to adopt a child. In November we were matched with a little girl from Nigeria and began the year long process of paperwork and applications. In November of 2017 we went to Nigeria and finalized the adoption in January of this year. Our local news station just ran a 3 1/2 story tonight about our process and you can find it at this link if ur interested. http://m.newson6.com/story.aspx?story=38687203&catId=112042 If any of you have ever thought about adoption or know anyone who has I would love to chat with you about how the process works and answer a questions you might have, no matter what they might be. When we started the process there were lots of questions we had that we didn’t know how to ask. So I promise no question will be offensive or anything like that. Just hit me up if ur interested at all. You can also get way more information about our journey through the blog my wife set up to chronically the process at https://haffwayaroundtheworld.com/
  29. 28 points
    Akiem Williams III, affectionally known as AW3 has captured the hearts and minds of football fans in Clemson, SC, Dallas, TX, and everywhere in-between. The junior college star quarterback will be making his final decision any day now, with Clemson and SMU as his two finalists. We spoke to national recruiting analysts and experts to breakdown his game and predict where the nation's top junior college player will sign. Frankie Thornton, 247sports.com When I look at Akiem Williams, I see an instant impact type player. He's got all the intangibles in the world and will immediately be atop the depth chart at whichever school he attends. His biggest strength by far is his size. He's every bit of 6'3" 235 lbs and is a terror for defensive players to bring down. When he gets into the open field, he doesn't shy away from contact and uses his linebacker frame to punish opposing defenders. He might not have track speed, but with his skillset he certainly doesn't need it. PREDICTION: SMU John Blever, Rivals.com Williams is elite - there's no other way to put it. He's big enough, strong enough, and has all the tools to be an NFLHC quarterback someday. A lot of folks talk about his ability to extend plays with his legs, but I think his arm strength doesn't get talked about enough. He's got a Howitzer attached to his right shoulder and he's not afraid to use it. Does that mean he sometimes tries to fit throws into tight spaces? Sure, but more often than not, he's right on the money. He'll bring an immediate boost to whichever roster he picks and already has NFLHC scouts salivating. PREDICTION: Clemson SCHOOL COMPARISON (all ratings before progressions and * denotes a signee) Biggest competition: QB Frederick Snyder 6-4 227 Fr Grady (Atlanta GA) 3.0 of 4.0 [Hybrid] - QB Marcus Burden 6-5 229 Fr Van Alstyne (Van Alstyne TX) 1.0 of 5.0 [Hybrid] - ADVANTAGE: NEITHER Best weapons WR Andrew Harrison 6-0 230 (Fr) Orangeburg-Wilkinson (Orangeburg SC) 2.0 of 5.0 [Target] WR Theo Chamberlain 6-5 213 Fr Hoggard (Wilmington NC) 3.0 of 5.0 [Target]* WR Sawyer Vogel 6-5 233 Fr Tucker (Tucker GA) 1.0 of 4.5 [Target] - WR Gabriel Munson 6-1 204 Jr Arkansas Baptist (Little Rock AR) 4.0 of 4.5 [Target]* WR Aidan Blount 5-10 178 (So) Bonham (Bonham, TX) 3.0 of 4.5 [Speed] WR Devin Samuel 6-1 220 Fr Willowridge (Sugar Land TX) 1.0 of 5.0 [Target] RB Josiah Brock 5-6 193 (Fr) White Knoll (Lexington SC) 2.0 of 4.5 [Speed] - RB Stephen Cunningham 5-11 194 (Fr) Henrietta (Henrietta TX) 2.5 of 5.0 [Power] TE Kisona Vailopa 6-3 239 Fr Meigs County (Decatur TN) 3.0 of 5.0 [Blocking] - TE Timothy Jennings 6-0 242 (Fr) Iraan (Iraan TX) 2.0 of 5.0 [Blocking] - ADVANTAGE: Offensive line OT Matt Maynard 6-6 314 Fr Cook (Adel GA) 1.0 of 5.0 [Pass Blocking] OG Philip Bowden 6-7 272 Fr Loganville (Loganville GA) 1.0 of 5.0 [Pass Blocking] C Byron Alexander 6-3 299 Fr Rock Hill (Rock Hill SC) 3.0 of 4.5 [Run Blocking] OG Philip Bowden 6-7 272 Fr Loganville (Loganville GA) 1.0 of 5.0 [Pass Blocking] OT Ivan Schultz 6-7 303 (Fr) Crescent (Iva SC) 2.0 of 4.0 [Pass Blocking] - OT Terrell McRae 6-4 276 (Jr) Quinton (Quinton, OK) 4.5 of 4.5 [Pass Blocking] OG Derek Quintana 6-4 338 Fr Mesquite (Mesquite TX) 3.0 of 4.5 [Run Blocking] C Martin Rush 6-1 255 Fr Longview (Longview TX) 3.0 of 4.0 [Pass Blocking] OG Jeremiah Berman 6-1 263 (Jr) Joaquin (Joaquin, TX) 4.0 of 4.0 [Pass Blocking] OT Jonathan Lang 6-3 322 Fr Robert E. Lee (Midland TX) 1.0 of 5.0 [Pass Blocking] - ADVANTAGE: Distance: - 871 miles (Clemson, SC -> Hutchinson, KS) - 367 miles (Dallas, TX -> Hutchinson, KS) - ADVANTAGE: Williams says his decision could come "any day now" Stay tuned.
  30. 27 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC Poll Changes coming in 2023

    Greetings folks, In a bid for more transparency and such for the playoff and bowl selection aspects of CFBHC I will be overhauling the polling system beginning with next season. All will be handled by users and all will directly correlate to how the teams are selected. We will be adding two new polls in addition to our favorite Coaches Poll. You can find the information on the new polls below and how they will factor into the playoff selection aspect. Coaches' Poll Run by @Jumbo Weekly Preferably 8 coaches going forward, PERMANENT if Jumbo can find the right people that can sign up. Ideally would be 8 users with 2/3 allowed substitutes in case some of the others are impaired for some reason. Exclusive to these 10 (or maybe 11) voters. 30% of Playoff Rankings AP Poll Run by @stormstopper Weekly I've deferred this to storm but I was thinking 5 users known for creating good and regular media. Storm is allowed to select - you cannot be a coaches poll and AP poll voter. 30% of Playoff Rankings Computer Poll Run by @Rome with input from @Soluna using Football Rankulator Weekly Automated with weight criteria 40% of Playoff Rankings Playoff Rankings Run by @Soluna Weekly beginning Week 13 (last four weeks) Will decide the 8 playoff teams. Criteria for selection will be announced prior to the next season. Soluna
  31. 26 points
    Associated Press

    Thank You, Texas Tech

    by Solomon McLaughlin My first year at Texas Tech, I used to sneak onto the field late at night when the stadium was completely empty and just sit down at the fifty to take it all in. The past three years have been filled with huge moments. Though the biggest stages have mostly eluded our team we far outmatched any of the goals we set for ourselves at the very first meeting I attended. I remember sitting at the back of the room that first day thinking "Don't blow it. This is your one chance at this level.". I still remember that long ride up to Lubbock to enroll in classes. I was nervous the entire time. Dad told me, "I know you'll be the best you can be. Show them who you are." I'll never forget how surreal it was when we arrived on campus and it dawned on me how big this moment was for my future. I was always first in, last out at the practice facility. Some days it was hard to push through the exhaustion but I think it all paid off. I never got to lift the National Championship trophy but I promise to give it my all for my final game. It'll be hard to leave the field no matter the outcome and I'd like to take in the moment as best I can. Thank you Coach Acewulf. Thank you team. Thank you from the bottom of my heart. I've decided that it's time for my new story to begin but I'll miss you all. And now, as I prepare for this next step, I find myself extremely thankful to this university for the greatest gift imaginable: the ability to see ahead and set my own goalposts. My goal is to become one of the greatest and I hope you guys will watch me on my journey and rememeber that you helped start it. Solomon
  32. 26 points
    BOFA Awards: The BOFA Awards celebrate accomplishments by the players on the field and the coaches on the sideline and in the community. Most of the awards will be revealed after the conference championship games, but there are a few that will be revealed in the run up to the games. The first BOFA Award to be named is the Imposter Award for New Member of the Year All of the candidates for this award were excellent candidates, who showed the ability to learn the game quickly, and be valuable additions to CFBHC. Before I announce this award, I want to thank the other BOFA voters for getting their votes in promptly, and I want to thank the people who were nominated for this award. Your coaching, your media, and your presence in the shoutbox has not gone unnoticed and we at BOFA hope that as you become more veteran members of the site, your growth on the site helps inspire members even newer than you to continue this sites excellence. The Candidates for this award were: Mahrowkeen, Coach of UTSA SolutionA, Coach of North Dakota State Suffocation, Coach of James Madison DarthJarJar, Coach of New Mexico Some highlights from these coaches: Mahrowkeen was a very active coach in both the shoutbox and in media on the site. Contributing heavily to BOFA. While he did have a vote in these awards, he did not vote for himself in these awards. He led his team to an 8-4 record, putting his UTSA team in a bowl for the first time ever. SolutionA and Suffocation were the most recognizable faces of the FCS in their inaugural season having coaches in CFBHC. They contributed in media for the FCS power rankings and FCS players of the week, helping other members become invested in what was going on in the FCS. SolutionA's North Dakota State team finished the season at 10-2, first in the FCS division, and earned a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Suffocation's James Madison team finished at 9-3 in the FCS, which ranked third in the division and also led to a first round bye. DarthJarJar was a constant presence in the shoutbox this year. Like SolutionA and Suffocation, he contributed heavily to media within his conference. While his New Mexico struggled on the field, DarthJarJar's contributions elsewhere helped the Mountain West Conference have a strong media presence. All of these coaches should be lauded for their contributions to their teams success, to their conference, and to CFBHC as a whole. However, we can only have one winner. The winner of the first ever award given by the publication of Bad Online Football Amateurs, the Imposter Award for New Member of the year is…. @mahrowkeen Head Coach of the University of Texas at San Antonio Road Runners Again thank you to all the members who were nominated for this award for your contribution to this site. And another thank you to the voters, who got their votes in promptly. This includes @Soluna, who we asked to submit a vote for this award as well.
  33. 26 points
    There are several different ways to examine the biggest upsets in CFBHC history: upsets that had the biggest impact on the season or the long-term trajectory of a program, upsets that were shocking at the time but made a broader point about both teams' seasons, and upsets that were pure bolts from the blue. Since I don't have point spreads going back to the beginning of CFBHC and I've been terrible at keeping records of what my weekly point spreads have been, the following will be the largest upsets by retroactive point spreads (using readjusted margin of victory, which is similar to the adjusted margin of victory formula that defines my point spreads, but it's opponent-adjusted a second time). Therefore, the question this post aims to answer is as follows: knowing what we know now, which games turned out to make the least sense out of all of them? For the purposes of these rankings, the game's impact on the season as a whole is irrelevant, and the question of which upsets are biggest along those lines is for someone else to determine. Some games will overlap on those two lists, whereas some of these games might not even look like upsets without close involvement or close examination. To borrow from the Big XII Network: let's talk about the games. 10. 2014 Week 13: Michigan defeats #3 Ohio State, 38-35 (retroactive spread: Ohio State -22.5) Michigan's all-time record against Ohio State is nothing short of gaudy. But if it weren't for this upset, the Buckeyes would have had a much earlier foothold. Ranked #3 in the country with an offense stacked with future pros and led by one of the greatest college quarterbacks ever in Aaron Kotar, the 10-1 Buckeyes squared off with a pedestrian 6-5 Wolverine squad led by Tommy Jones, a redshirt freshman backup to future Lions legend Rob LeCount. Jones pulverized the Buckeye defense, throwing 3 touchdown passes in the first half to stake the Wolverines to a 24-7 lead shortly after halftime. But Kotar willed his way back into this one, closing the gap to 24-21, 31-28, and 38-35. Ohio State had a chance to send it to overtime with 7 seconds left, but Fred Romanowski busted through the line, blocked the field goal, and sealed the victory. The loss kept Ohio State out of the playoffs, and Ohio State would ensure a Big Ten-free tournament by beating fellow contender Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. 9. 2019 Week 6: UCLA defeats Arizona State, 13-9 (retroactive spread: Arizona State -23.5) This game was pretty unremarkable at the time. Arizona State was 2-2, and UCLA was 2-1. Neither team was ranked in the coaches' poll. Arizona State in particular has had a habit of flying under the radar year after year (how many names on Arizona State's side of this statsheet ring a bell to you?). So when UCLA won a nondescript game on a Thursday night by turning three red zone trips into just 13 points but keeping the Sun Devils out of the endzone, all the talk of the day was about Elijah Moffett's summary execution of a respectable Hawaii team. After that, though? The Sun Devils didn't lose another regular-season Pac-12 game. They steamrolled their next four conference opponents by 30, 31, 15, and 19. They proceeded to upset USC and hold serve against Arizona. They finished with a 6-1 conference record to win the Pac-12 South. Their only loss for the remainder of the regular season was to...Akron. Seriously. Why is UCLA a bigger upset? Because they finished 4-8 that season, and their other wins came against 0-12 Wake Forest, 1-11 Florida Atlantic, and 0-12 Oregon State. They also got blown out by a Marshall team, who in turn...well, to say more would be a spoiler alert for a later entry. Looking back, this was a total head-scratcher. 8. 2013 Week 3: TCU defeats Boise State, 24-7 (retroactive spread: Boise State -24.5) Brian Brown, BSU, 11 of 43 for 86 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. That says it all. The 2013 season produced some retrospectively strange results as things were in the process of solidifying. None were stranger than this one. Brian Brown was really, really good even at the time. He threw for 28 touchdowns to just 1 interception that season, completing 62.7% of his passes and netting over 3000 yards through the air as a sophomore. TCU was really, really bad. Their upset over Texas in 2014 was legendary (though Texas faded down the stretch, so it won't appear in these rankings), but at least that TCU team won 4 games. The 2013 version won just two, and the other one was against 1-11 Houston. Notably, they also provided 1-11 Rice with the Owls' only win of the season. To take some of the heat off of him, though, Brown wasn't the only eventual NFL star to struggle that week: Aaron Devereaux finished 11-50 for 78 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in a winning effort against Brian Vardell, who finished 9-24 for 54 yards and 1 pick. This was also the same week as Christian Skaggs versus Jason Johnson in a battle of the first two selections of the first-ever NFLHC Draft. 7. 2014 Week 12: Stanford defeats #11 Notre Dame, 38-35 (retroactive spread: Notre Dame -24.5) The second rivalry game in this series, Stanford's upset came in a situation where the Cardinal had nothing to lose. They were 3-7, having dropped back-to-back games to USC and Oregon to fall out of bowl contention. Notre Dame, meanwhile, was a pair of one-possession losses to elite Big Ten teams from being in the playoff picture--but even if they had been, this loss would have knocked them out. As is the case in a lot of these high-scoring upsets, the underdog Cardinal struck hard, fast, often, and first. Jason Fowler found Lance Bolling for an 88-yard strike just 46 seconds into the game, and Stanford led 21-0 at the end of the first quarter. Harold Simmons rallied the Irish, cutting the deficit to 28-21 before an untimely pick-six to Marv Grantham. Undeterred, though, the eventual rightful NFL Rookie of the Year threw his 3rd and 4th touchdown passes of the day to tie the score at 35-35 with 6:24 to play--only for Stanford to march back down the field and take the lead for good with a 39-yard field goal with a minute left. Notre Dame would close the year 10-3 with wins over Miami in week 13 and Air Force in a bowl game; Stanford edged out Cal during rivalry week then went home at 5-7. 6. 2019 Week 6: Florida International defeats Marshall, 34-24 (retroactive spread: Marshall -25) This is probably the most obscure game on this list. At the time, it was a matchup between two 0-4 teams. Marshall hadn't really shown a lot of life yet, but the going assumption was that the C-USA was a two-team conference between Marshall in the East and Rice in the West. This game was the first one to start to dispense with that notion, and much of it was self-inflicted by a Marshall offense that tired to get too cute by half. The Florida International Golden Panthers (that's way too long of a name) scored on a pick-six and a blocked field goal return for a touchdown to grab a 21-10 lead, only to give it all back by the end of the third quarter as Marshall tied it at 24. It was a Jeremy Scott touchdown run followed by a late field goal that gave FIU its decisive margin. Despite the result of this game, FIU went on to do very little the rest of the year; they went 2-10 with a win over 1-11 Florida Atlantic, and on average they were outscored 35.8-13.3 per game. This was a really bad team. Marshall, meanwhile, snapped out of it pretty much immediately--perhaps because they cut the trick plays out of their playbook after such a disastrous result. With an 0-5 start banked, they didn't lose another game for the rest of the regular season. They swept their other 6 C-USA games and blew out UCLA before Rice shut them out in the C-USA title game and Hawaii beat them in a bowl game. Marshall wasn't a particularly good team, but none of their other losses came to anyone as bad as FIU. 5. 2020 Week 10: Nebraska defeats Iowa, 27-24 (retroactive spread: Iowa -26) During week 9 of the 2020 season, Iowa hosted defending and eventual repeat national champion Penn State for one of the program's biggest games since 2016. The Hawkeyes led 17-3 at the half (and were smart not to go up 21-3), but Tanner Bowman found Morgan Patton for two touchdown passes in the second half to led the Nittany Lions all the way back for a 23-20 win. They had to turn around and go to Lincoln for a Thursday night game that they should have won. Sure, Iowa was 4-3. In retrospect, though, the fact that their losses were to UCF (15-1), Michigan State (11-2), and Penn State (15-1) makes it hard to blame them. The Hawkeyes were also two games removed from a 24-10 win over Illinois. At the time of this game, Nebraska was 2-5 with wins over Iowa State (1-11) and Rutgers (3-9) and four losses by two scores or more. Iowa didn't seem to be fully mentally in this one after the heartbreaker against Penn State: they committed 9 penalties for 88 yards, they finished 2-of-13 on third downs, Emmanuel Saavedra missed a crucial field goal, and the Hawkeyes gave up 126 yards and 2 scores on the ground. It was back and forth, but Nebraska took the lead in the fourth quarter and never let go. That put a cloud over Iowa's season, which is really too bad because the Hawkeyes didn't lose another game the rest of the way. They even stunned then-#1 and eventual division champion Purdue in week 14. This loss to Nebraska didn't cost them a division title because Iowa finished two games back, but it gave Purdue a margin for error that they took full advantage of. For their part, the Huskers would only win one more game for the rest of the season, a close one over the 3-9 Miami Hurricanes. Iowa (9) finished with more wins than the rest of the opponents Nebraska defeated all year (7). 4. 2014 Week 5: Mississippi State defeats #1 Florida State, 24-21 (retroactive spread: Florida State -26.5) If you ever ask one of the grizzled veterans of the coaching world how you can possibly stand tall against a team that overmatches you on every front, they might tell you that there's always the Mississippi State Chance. The Seminoles came into this game ranked #1 in the country, having just beaten up fellow contender Oklahoma to start 3-0. They would dominate for almost all of the rest of the season, outscoring opponents by 20.3 points per game and knocking off top-ranked Boise State in the College Football Playoff before falling to Alabama in the national title game 27-23. Meanwhile, Mississippi State was a pretty weak 2-1: their two wins came over 2-10 Utah and 2-10 Auburn by a combined 4 points, and their loss was by two touchdowns to defending national champion (and eventual 9-4 team) LSU. The Bulldog offense struggled for most of the season, averaging less than 13.7 points per game with three different quarterbacks starting. But the best of them was an unknown true freshman named Justin Hunter, and he had nothing short of the game of his life on the road in Tallahassee. He didn't just outduel eventual top quarterback draft selection Thomas Wheeler; he smoked him like a pig. He threw for 392 yards on 35-of-49 passing, opening the game with a 93-yard touchdown pass to Paul Howell less than two minutes into the game and closing it with a 17-yard strike to Kevin Branch with 5:33 to play to take the lead and deliver a shocking 24-21 upset. To reiterate: this was a true freshman in his first career start playing the #1 team in the country on the road, having to duel Thomas Wheeler and Akili Wallace, and he didn't just win--he won in style. Never discount the Mississippi State Chance. 3. 2015 Week 7: Kansas defeats #1 Oklahoma, 23-20 (retroactive spread: Oklahoma -27) There was a good deal of hype around this game, and not just because Oklahoma was deservedly the top-ranked team in the country and en route to a national championship. The previous year, Kansas had gone down to Norman to stun the 8th-ranked Sooners 28-14. That was with James Otero for Kansas and without Norris Brooksheer for Oklahoma, though; the teams' different makeups were reflected in Oklahoma's 6-0 start compared to Kansas's 3-3 record. The Sooners looked every bit like the best team in the country through the first half, going up 14-3 deep into the second quarter. The game-changer was a 95-yard touchdown run by quarterback DeAndre Jackson early in the third. Paul Gibbs also scored a rushing touchdown sandwiched between Alejandro Aguirre field goals, the sum of which left this game tied at 20 heading into the home stretch. Joshua Stewart had missed a field goal earlier in the day, but he was called on with 21 seconds left to put the Jayhawks on top. He nailed the 43-yard attempt, the defense ran the clock out, and Kansas had done it again. Like last year, that win gave Kansas the inside track to the Big XII Championship Game; unlike last year, they failed to capitalize at the very end and finished 8-5. Oklahoma took full advantage: they didn't lose another game all season and looked even more dominant than they did before their loss before capping things off with a win in the Greatest Game Ever Played. For the season, they outscored their opponents by 21.3 points per game; for contrast, Kansas averaged 21.9 points per game. 2. 2015 Week 7: Tennessee defeats #12 Alabama, 9-7 (retroactive spread: Alabama -27) We now go from week 7 of the 2015 season to...week 7 of the 2015 season for upset #2 on this list. Whereas the context of the game itself is more important to other games, this one needs context for why it's even an upset at all given that Tennessee was a 10-3 team and Alabama finished 8-5. Part of that is strength of schedule: Alabama had the #5 schedule in the country by opponents' point differential and the #3 schedule by opponents' adjusted margin of victory; Tennessee ranked 64th and 61st in the same measures. What's striking is the sheer number of Houdini acts the Volunteers were able to pull off. They were 8-1 in one-possession games, 7-1 in games decided by a field goal or less, and 3-0 in games where they scored 10 points or fewer. Included in all three of those tallies was the so-called football game they played against South Carolina in week 12, decided for Tennessee by a 5-3 margin. South Carolina went to finish 2-10. In comparison, Alabama was a much more reasonable 3-3 in one-possession games. They also blew out a 9-3 North Carolina, made mincemeat out of inferior opponents, and all five teams that beat them won at least 10 games. The Volunteers outscored their opponents by 3.2 points per game; the Crimson Tide walloped their foes by 15.3 per game. By the time this game was played, defending national champion Alabama was already 3-2 and ranked 12th while Tennessee was unranked despite a 5-1 record. There were four other upsets-by-ranking in the same timeslot, so this game didn't draw as much attention. But in retrospect, this should be regarded as the greatest Houdini moment of Tennessee's Houdini-filled 2015 season. 1. 2018 Week 4: Kansas State defeats #23 Houston, 38-35 (retroactive spread: Houston -28) Houston lost one game in the 2018 regular season. Kansas State won one game in the 2018 regular season, and nearly 1/4. That game was to each other, and it wasn't even as close as the scoreboard made it seem. The Wildcats never trailed. They went up 14-7 late in the first half and Houston never caught up. It was 21-7 shortly after halftime, and the Wildcats led by 7 to 14 points most of the rest of the way until a too-little-too-late Houston touchdown closed the gap to 38-35. They ran the ball 42 times, and it's as if Houston never once considered they might do that. Dylan Stewart ran for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns, one of just six such efforts since 2016 by a Big XII player. Quarterback Aiden Higgins added 62 yards and two scores on the ground while throwing for just 28 yards on 9 attempts. Making this an even more unlikely effort was Kansas State's struggles against the pass. Joel King almost singlehandedly kept the Cougars in this ballgame by throwing for 460 yards and 4 touchdowns on 22-26 passing without a turnover, but he was playing from behind the whole way. This was a jaw-dropping upset at the time, but the remainder of the season made it clear how huge it was. Houston won their next 10 games, all but one by 10 points or more. They were a playoff team, falling in the quarterfinal to Ohio State. In the meantime, Kansas State's next game was against a Louisiana Tech team that would finish 2-10 as a C-USA team. Kansas State could only muster up 7 points and lost. That was one of three one-possession games they would play for the rest of the year. They ultimately finished 112th in the country in point differential at -17.8/game; Houston was 11th at +12.4/game. It will be hard to match this level of upset--and that's why the legend of Dylan Stewart lives on in Little Manhattan. Bonus Content: The Greatest Near-Misses Sometimes, a serious underdog gives everything a favorite can handle and then some, but can't quite pull off the win. The following is a list of some of the biggest failures to cover a retroactive spread in which the favorite still manages to pull out the win. These writeups will be a lot quicker and less detailed. 5. 2013 Week 8: #18 Missouri defeats Vanderbilt, 35-31 (retroactive spread: Missouri -30.5, Vanderbilt covered by 26.5 points) Vanderbilt: Was the first CFBHC team to go 0-12, maligned by an 0-5 record in one-possession games but also finished with a -295 point differential. Close because: Herman Williams had himself a ballgame, throwing for 211 yards and 3 scores without a pick. This was an outlier, as he threw just 5 touchdowns to 15 interceptions the rest of the season. Missouri: Ranked 18th at gametime, finished 9-4 (4-3) and +185 in point differential but tied for third in the SEC East. Escaped because: Future Lions draftee Gerald Bright matched Williams's three touchdown passes, but Eddie Anderson's 22-yard touchdown run with 1:13 to play was what gave the Tigers the lead for good. 4. 2020 Week 9: #1 Purdue defeats Rutgers, 26-23 (retroactive spread: Purdue -29.5, Rutgers covered by 26.5 points) Rutgers: Entered this game 1-5 with their sole win being an uninspiring 10-9 effort over UNLV. Finished 3-9. Close because: They picked off Matt Jones once, held Purdue to a field goal on three different red zone trips, and Blair Sullivan threw for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns. Purdue: Undefeated and on the way to a 10-0 start and a Big Ten West title, still a year away from a national championship but the pieces were there. Escaped because: The defense picked off Sullivan twice and held Rutgers to a field goal on three different red zone trips, Ryan Bolton hit all four field goal attempts while Jonathan Nash missed one, and Matt Jones's 249 yards and 2 touchdowns were just enough to carry them through. 3. 2014 Week 12: Air Force defeats Georgia State, 28-24 (retroactive spread: Air Force -32.0, Georgia State covered by 28.0 points) Georgia State: Finished 0-12. Scored 72 points all season, one-third of which were in this game. Held the record for negative scoring margin until UMass in 2020. Still the lowest-scoring team ever. Close because: Frederick Chacon was bottled up, gaining just 87 yards on 28 carries. Bill Garcia was running wild, throwing for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns. (He threw 5 touchdowns in all other games combined that season.) Air Force: Started the season 1-4, entered this game 5-5, finished the season 7-6. Struggled outside of AAC play but went 5-2 in conference. Played in Brian Brown's division, so no CCG was in the cards. Escaped because: They capitalized on Georgia State's mistakes. Garcia threw 2 interceptions in that game (right on par with his season average), and the Falcons scored a touchdown within 2 minutes of each. They were down 24-14 in the fourth quarter but scored the final 14 points to steal the win. 2. 2013 Week 5: #9 Michigan defeats Michigan State, 23-17 (retroactive spread: Michigan -35.5, Michigan State covered by 29.5 points) Michigan State: Entered this game 2-2 but lost every game from there to the end of the season, most in blowout fashion. Average game was a loss by 20.8 points. Close because: Keyshawn, duh. The eventual #2 overall pick took an interception for a score off of eventual teammate Rob LeCount, recording 10 tackles in the process. Also played a role in ensuring that Michigan would attempt more field goals than extra points. Michigan: Came into this game at 3-1 with their only loss coming to USC; they wouldn't lose another game in the regular season. Won the Big Ten, beat Penn State in the playoff, then fell to LSU in the national championship game. Escaped because: They harried Bobby Viger all day, holding him to 17-of-38 passing with 2 interceptions. Rob LeCount did just enough to win, throwing for 188 yards and 2 scores along with his pick-six. 1. 2015 Week 6: #1 Oklahoma defeats Nebraska, 14-13 (retroactive spread: Oklahoma -32.5, Nebraska covered by 31.5 points) Nebraska: Was 2-3 coming into this game, its legendary 2014 recruiting class still a long way away from making a real impact. They finished 2-10 and gave up more than twice as many points as they allowed. Close because: They kept Oklahoma's offense in muddy water, giving up 208 yards through the air and holding Greg Hadnot to 70 rushing yards. They didn't do much on offense themselves, or they would have won. Oklahoma: Undefeated entering this game, though they were a week away from upset #3 on the main list. Of course, they also won the national championship so it wasn't all bad. Escaped because: They took a one-point lead in the third quarter, failed to capitalize on an interception in the fourth, and quite frankly got lucky that Roger Barrett missed two go-ahead field goal attempts in the final frame--including one with just 53 seconds to play. More Bonus Content: The Biggest Postseason Upsets None of these games will wind up being particularly obscure, and all were viewed as upsets at the time due to their nature of being at season's end where almost all of the data about both teams is just about settled. Here are the top ten postseason upsets in order. 10. 2020 Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon defeats USC, 23-7 (retroactive spread: USC -10) 9. 2017 Navy National Bowl: Toledo defeats San Diego State, 24-21 (retroactive spread: San Diego State -10) 8. 2016 Frozen Bowl: Connecticut defeats Kentucky, 23-21 (retroactive spread: Kentucky -10.5) 7. 2019 Las Vegas Bowl: California defeats Air Force, 30-10 (retroactive spread: Air Force -10.5) 6. 2017 Boca Raton Bowl: Eastern Michigan defeats Boise State, 24-14 (retroactive spread: Boise State -11) 5. 2021 Armed Forces Bowl: BYU defeats Navy, 26-7 (retroactive spread: Navy -13) 4. 2014 Fiesta Bowl: East Carolina defeats Ole Miss, 17-16 (retroactive spread: Ole Miss -14) 3. 2015 Alamo Bowl: Kansas defeats Oregon, 24-21 (retroactive spread: Oregon -16.5) 2. 2015 AAC Championship Game: Houston defeats Boise State, 31-30 (retroactive spread: Boise State -17.5) 1. 2019 MAC Championship Game: Ohio defeats Toledo, 17-13 (retroactive spread: Toledo -18)
  34. 26 points
    With Free Agency winding down cfbhc.com's own Npklemm and Dean_Craig_Pelton breakdown their Free Agency winners and losers. Dean's Free Agency Winners and Losers Winner-Greg Cobb The 5th year WR who spent the last few years getting dimes thrown to him by Brian Brown is cashing in on all his catches. Cobb tied the lead league in TD Receptions on the year with 16 and was sure handed with only 1 recorded drop on the year. Cobb's hands made WR needy and cap loaded teams go crazy and Owner-GMs pumph and Nmize went to war offering Cobb over $50 million guaranteed. While his QB won't be of Brian Brown quality next year, Cobb will have 20 million reasons not to care about that. Loser- The New York Giants Targets Greg Cobb Charlie Paul Malik Dawson The Giants are losers in the sense that they lost out on everyone that they bid for. However, I honestly think it wound up being a good thing as the Giants were able to save some cap. However, I believe they overpaid some aging declining veterans to make up for those losses (Polsfoot, Harper, and Duckworth) and only came away with one signing I really liked (Jeffreys). Regardless, if the Giants manage to get their hands on Matt Jones they can turn from Losers into Winners. Losers- Taylor Rodriguez and Paul Davenport With the current QB contract market Taylor Rodriguez and Paul Davenport thought they weren't getting their dues from their teams so they tested the open market. The problem is teams valued Davenport and Rodriguez even less then their former teams did. Davenport had to settle down with the Cardinals for 2/22 mil after getting offered 5 yrs/100 mil from the Giants during the regular season. Davenport may be able to make the money back after his two year stint in Arizona but the odds are against him now. The Cardinals also offered TRod a 3 y/36 mil offer and now TRod has been completely neglected in FA receiving 0 offers with no teams to offer in sight. It seems as if Rodriguez will have to wait until post draft to find his home. Winners- Mohammed Foster and the Chicago Bears With MoFo taking over the reigns as Brooksheer heads east to the Steelers, Family duo Stormstopper and Darman have started to assemble quite the arsenal of weapons for their new QB1 going out and signing Charlie Paul and Vaughan Abraham this offseason. Abraham was let go in favor of the younger Adrian Robinson in Dallas but Abraham now looks to be the face of a new look Bears offense. Foster will also have Paul to throw to alongside Bears longtime leading receiver David Gaines. With these new additions and the 11th overall pick in the draft the Bears are certainly a team to lookout for in 2022. Winners- Reggie Watkins and the Patriots This pair just works. Watkins has spent years as a underappreciated QB in the NFL and he is finally getting treated fairly in New England. Watkins is going to be able to settle down with 39 million coming his way over the next two years. The Patriots also did a wonderful job by keeping the final year of the deal non-guaranteed in case of a drop off but still made the deal manageable if Watkins stays on track. Wonderful deal for both sides. Losers-The Chargers Spending $20 million dollars to upgrade your offense after going 1-15 is a wonderful idea. But that $20 million dollars should have been spread out. The Chargers running game has been abysmal, ranking 6th worst in the league, and Matty Swift is your QB and cannot be relied upon as the sole option. Adding Greg Cobb to help him out makes sense but you needed help at running back too (Chacon is not a viable solution). Spending Cobb money on Dess or Abraham would have been a much better move. The Chargers should have made the moves the Bears are making and while I don't hate the Cobb signing in full. I'm not a fan of the direction the Chargers are headed in at the moment. Klemm's Free Agency Winners and Losers Winners – Cornerbacks: Marquez Warner got 32.5 MM fully guaranteed from Kansas City. Aaron Samuelsson received 14.5 MM from Arizona, Jaylen Harris received 22 MM from Chicago, D.J. Reed received 10.5 MM from Buffalo. These guys absolutely made bank in Free Agency, they would never have received these deals from their original teams. Now, are they worth those deals? Not really, they were massively overpaid. Which is why they come away as winners. Losers – OLB Hungry Teams: There was only one OLB rated higher than 80 to hit Free Agency. Kwazi Robb held that distinction. There were then two guys rated between 75-79, Ray Truax and Charley Graham. If you needed to replace a starting OLB in Free Agency this season, you were boned. The Colts lucked out by signing Robb, although Robb is getting almost $6MM for one season. There weren’t really any backup level guys available. This is going to make OLB a highly sought after position in the upcoming draft. Winner–Norris Brooksheer: Brooksheer signed a 56.75 MM deal over 3 years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. I certainly didn’t expect Brooksheer to get the biggest QB deal so far. Brooksheer had a promising rookie season, but didn’t seem to improve like many would have liked to see. The Bears drafted Mohammed Foster 5th overall last season, and then released Norris this year. Pittsburgh traded Paul Davenport to the Giants for RJ Stanford early on last season, only to release Stanford at the end of the season. They’re looking to Norris to lead them into the future and win the AFCN. Losers – Special Teams: So far, only one specialist has been signed. P Cliff Randall was signed by the Buccaneers. Other than that, no one has gotten any interest from the league. Long time kickers Daryl Holmes, Michael Turner, and Stanley Brewster are still searching for a new home. Punter Bud McCullough has nowhere to play either. Either teams are secure in their Special Teams units, or they’re looking at the draft to get their new starters. Winners–New York Jets: The Jets signed CB Lee Davis and SS Bennie Richardson. But that’s not why they’re winners. They’re winners for those sweet 2023 Comp Picks. They couldn’t re-sign Marques Warner, Kwazi Robb, and Bob Ballard. They should get a 4th and 2 5th for not having re-signed their star defenders. Losers – Centers: Not a single Center has been signed. Not a single Center has had a visit with a team. There has been 0 interest in these Free Agent Centers. Center depth around the league isn’t great, and these guys could step into backup roles on quite a few teams, but those teams don’t seem to want them. At this point, most of these guys will finish their careers as Free Agents.
  35. 25 points
    Darman

    BOFA Awards

    The voting committee of BOFA has decided on who won the major awards for College Football in the 2022 season. Player Awards: Brian Brown National Player of the Year: Quarterback Troy McMurray RJ Stanford Offensive Player of the Year: Troy McMurray Tyrone Jones Defensive Player of the Year: Cornerback DeSean Barkley Jarius Shaw-Dodd Offensive Freshman of the Year: Quarterback Storm Whitaker Philip Moore Defensive Freshman of the Year: Defensive End Kayden Soriano De'Andre Hawkins Transfer of the Year: Troy McMurray Coaches Awards: TheUgly National Coach of the Year: Rome Randye FBS Coach of the Year: Rome Kirk Carter FCS Coach of the Year: SolutionA Jieret Group of Five Coach of the Year: Pumph Bingo Non Playoff Coach of the Year: SlinkyJr UBL Coach Man of the Year: Stormstopper Congratulations to all the winners of these awards, and those who were nominated.
  36. 25 points
    Jumbo

    Re-Visiting the 2017 NFLHC Draft

    (Format shamelessly stolen from this article because it's a good format - https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2018/2012-nfl-draft-six-years-later) At the time, considered the best top of the draft in NFLHC history, the 2017 NFLHC Draft... has not quite lived up to the hype it was once given. It's possible that none of the Big 3 QBs that were taken in the top 5 will be starting at this time next year, although most of the big skill position players worked out to some extent. The depth of this class was... bad to say the least, and overall it didn't work out. But still, with contracts expiring this is an interesting time to look at how the players in the class worked out. Quarterbacks Conventional Wisdom: The big three all had their favorites. Some preferred Oklahoma's Norris Brooksheer, some preferred North Carolina's AJ Jefferson (I was in this camp), and some preferred Iowa's Jarius Jones. Brooksheer was coming off a Heisman season, AJJ was the first big early declaration from the first generated recruiting list, and Jarius had long been a stathead favorite. All three had their pros and cons but everyone thought at least one would pan out compared to what was looked at as a weaker 2016 class (that perception has since flipped). Lawyer Johnson was the most intriguing of the next tier with the highest Wonderlic score recorded by a QB up to that point, and following up the pedigree of Wisconsin QBs set by the Rams' Darrell Murphy and the previous year's #1 pick, the Jets' Erik Wegert. Pitt's James Dale had some hype, and he was the only one to defeat 2016's national champs Notre Dame, but his first round hype was mostly just smoke. Alabama's Erasmus McCready had some love but most just thought that he was a product of the incredibly talented team around him. Some were fans of some of the later round QBs. NC State's Donald Caldwell was a winner despite some of the lack of talent around him. Colorado State's Robert Martin came from a smaller, less competitive conference but put up some incredible stats. Washington's Anthony Newson, despite his low rating, did manage to make it to the national championship in 2016. Dick Cook, Sam Light, and Glen Spencer, all of whom were terrible, all managed to get drafted. At least Spencer was intentionally converted to WR. Highest Pick: Brooksheer, 1st overall to the Bears. Best Player: This is a tough one, because all of the top three did not pan out, Lawyer Johnson didn't either, and none of the late round QBs are sniffing playing time any time soon. The big three are the only three still starting so I'd think it would come from them. Overall, I would have to give it to Brooksheer. Even though he'll be kicked out the door and probably won't be starting for an NFLHC team next year, and the other two of the big three are significantly more likely to still be starting for their respective teams in 2021, he's performing the best of the three of them and has shown the most glimpses of being a passable starter. He's led a Bears team that shouldn't have been sniffing playoff contention pretty damn close, although it's been 5 years and he hasn't done that; his overall stats have been not great but the most consistent; and frankly, I don't think the other two are particularly good although AJJ's 2021 stats are technically the best. Biggest Bust: All three of the Big Three really, but I'd have to go with Jarius Jones. I don't think it's particularly his fault, but going to expansion team Arizona seems to have ruined any potential he had completely. He was just okay for three years, somehow got traded for two first round picks, and has been completely stinking it up in Seattle over the past two years. He's been significantly worse than the other two this year with just a 14 TD - 13 INT ratio. Honorary mention to Lawyer Johnson who was kicked out of New England pretty quickly after getting benched for Bad Davis last year. Best Value: Erasmus McCready was a third round pick and he's starting on a team that could make the playoffs. Let's ignore the 4 TD - 4 INT ratio in 9 starts, but that's still pretty passable for a third rounder. 6th round pick, UCLA's Ken Eller had a decent starting run in Philadelphia for a bit despite most people not even knowing who that was, and he honestly wasn't terrible for quite a time there. The pick right after Eller, USC's Mike Thomas got traded for a 4th round pick this offseason before stinking up the joint for the Giants. He's looked good in preseason at least. I'd honestly give it to McCready just for his game manager ability that Eller and Thomas don't have. Running Backs Conventional Wisdom: Despite having 3 81s and 2 80s, this was looked at as a relatively weak runningback class. Oregon's Shawn Anderson was generally considered the top RB in the class pre-combine, and none of the RBs really peaked out past him. Anderson had a pretty incredibly college career but there was some worry about tread on the tires. Syracuse's Chester Dorenbos and and FSU's Mike Latta were typically considered in the top three backs with, similarly to the QBs, everyone having their favorite. The class did have some decent depth. 81 overall RB who would eventually go in the 5th round, Northwestern's Michael Shoemaker, was good in college, but there were serious concerns when he ran a 4.68 40 at the combine. UCF's Buzz Etcheverry had his fans (see: el formulo™) and the next tier, while all high overall, were not considered particularly promising prospects: Arizona State's John Harris was just okay in college in a weak defensive conference, Purdue's Joseph Bowen was solid at the combine with decent production, and Missouri's Eddie Anderson was great in college but there were concerns he was carried by QB Aaron Shea (spoiler: he was). Some were fans of NC State's Jeff Collett and especially lower overall Notre Dame product Nick Engelberger, who was perceived as having carried the Irish to the national title. Highest Pick: Latta, 47th overall to the Panthers. Best Player: It's easily Latta. I wasn't his biggest fan at the time but then-Panthers GM randye clearly made the right pick. There were some rumblings about whether he'd stay in Carolina over his relative lack of workload, but he did recently sign a 3 year / $26 million deal to stay with the team. A threat in the receiving game and also to break one long, Latta is overall a pretty good fit for the Carolina offense. No other back sniffed a starting job for more than a couple of seasons, although Engelberger did have a decent run in Pittsburgh - but Latta is significantly ahead of the pack in all production metrics. Biggest Bust: Well, no runningback went in the first round so no huge busts. That said, the only other second round running back was UCF's Buzz Etcheverry... and he was not good for the Texans. After a disastrous rookie year in Houston, where he managed just 4 YPC behind what was rated the league's second best offensive line, he started just one game in Houston in his second season before he was traded in what amounted in a cap dump to Cincinnati, who had just drafted Ron Thomas and had no plans to start him. He didn't get a single start afterwards and is currently 3rd string in Kansas City. Honorable mentions to Dorenbos and Anderson, both of whom went in the third round and only effectively managed to hold down starting jobs for a season or two. Best Value: Surprisingly, taking the low overall Engelberger in the draft at all did work out, as he put in three seasons of starting football for expansion team Pittsburgh. He was actually pretty decent in '17 and '18 before putting up below 4 YPC in 2019. After the Chester Henson trade he was cast aside and is now the backup in Cincy. Collett also has managed to start a couple of games in Washington. Wide Receivers Conventional Wisdom: Recently FBS-added North Texas had a hyped start on their hands - one Sean Jenkins, who destroyed defenses in his only FBS season to the tune of 15+ YPC and 15 TD next to fellow starter Allen Allen. Some did prefer Oklahoma's Tai Miller to Jenkins, as he had put up an even better YPC (16.3) though with half the touchdowns. Those two were clearly established at the top as future stars, but there was also considered to be some good depth in the first round tier of receivers. Penn State's Mark Harrington, while disliked by his coach, put up a 17 YPC with 10 TD for 1100 yards and added 2 kick return TDs and a punt return TD along with it. He had perceived big play ability. Miami's Sonny Beckett was a combine darling, running an incredible 4.23 40 with a 42 vertical leap. He only had 44 receptions as a senior but he still managed 864 yards thanks to QB Paul Davenport's big arm. Some liked Michigan's Gordon Kleinsasser and Baylor's Eddie McFadden, the former with a good combine for a target receiver and decent college production and the latter with production concerns (just 33/462/2 as a senior) but who also blew up the combine. Highest Pick: Jenkins, 4th overall to the Saints. Best Player: We're 3/3 on the highest pick being the best player thus far. Jenkins is quite arguably the league's best receiver and has given QB Aaron Devereaux a consistent big play threat and target to throw to. He leads this class in yards and TD by quite a margin and has been a 2019 and 2020 Pro Bowler and 2020 All-Pro selection. Biggest Bust: It's close between Harrington and Kleinsasser. Both of them put up 3 seasons of productive for their respective teams, though that's primarily due the nature of NFLHC depth up to this point, before receiving minimal playing time in their fourth seasons and moving to a new team in their fifth season and getting buried on the depth chart. I'd give it to Kleinsasser as his production was a bit worse and the fact that he's actually declined in overall since being a rookie. Best Value: 4th round pick Aaron Pagliei actually had a 1,000 yard season for Detroit in 2019, but has mostly been minimally used since in both Detroit and in his new home in Chicago. Although 3rd round pick Hines Mertens has just 94 yards this year, he put up 1,000 yards and 8 TD as a rookie before putting up close to that in the next 3 seasons. 2nd rounder Cotton Lewis caught 10 TD in 2020 before being moved to New Orleans for a 4th round pick and another receiver. But the honor of being the best goes to Miami 3rd rounder, Greg Cobb from Cincinnati. He exploded with 900 yards and 10 TD as a rookie, got buried on the depth chart in his 2nd year, before proceeding to put up 1200 yards and 10 TD in 2020 while already being at 1272 yards and 14 TD to this point in 2021... and the year isn't even finished! Outside of Jenkins and Miller, Cobb has the most career yards in this class, though some of that can be attributed to playing with Brian Brown. Tight Ends Conventional Wisdom: This was a relatively weak tight end class. Following the failure of Danny Patrick from the prior class, people were a bit scared to pick tight ends, and with just 3 getting combine invites the strength of the class just wasn't there. Only three went in the first four rounds. Georgia's Tony Huff was typically considered the best in the class due to his blocking ability and superior combine to the other two, although he had pedestrian college production. Auburn's Kelly Littleton had some teams interested in him for raw athletic potential, but he had just 180 yards as a senior. USC's Jerry Cipa was the only other TE who went to the combine, and while his 500 yards and 5 TD as a senior outperformed the other two combined, he had injury risk and a weak combine. The depth of the class was considered weak but passable. Miami's Rick Philcox and TCU's Paul Carter-Williams were next highly ranked while some people favored later projected prospects from the ACC - Georgia Tech's Kendall Brandon and Clemson's Quentin McCullough. Highest Pick: Huff, 49th overall to the Seahawks. Best Player: We're going away from the top player in the class for once. Cipa has just one season below 500 receiving yards so far in his career, and made his first Pro Bowl in 2020 after putting up a incredible 78 reception, 1058 yard, 9 TD season. While he's now having probably his worst season, that Pro Bowl nod (compared to Huff's nod for a more pedestrian season) gets him the pick. Biggest Bust: Kelly Littleton was just pedestrian in Jacksonville, putting up some decent seasons but ultimately falling off and eventually getting traded to the Panthers. He backed up Curtis Henry during his incredible rookie season and then got traded to Houston once again, where he ended up out for the season. He's still on a roster but since he's not starting - he's behind the depth chart to a guy picked later than him - and has the worst stats of the guys drafted in the first four rounds he gets the nod. Best Value: Kendall Brandon was widely considered the best backup TE in the league in 2019 and 2020 as though he didn't put up much production, he played well as a blocker and was getting some good progressions. After refusing to re-sign in Miami he landed in Houston, pairing up with Alex Leshoure to put up 44 receptions for 684 yards and 8 TD thus far. Not bad for a guy picked 180th overall. Offensive Linemen Conventional Wisdom: This was an incredible offensive tackle class. 15 went in the first 60 picks. There was some debate as to whether Florida State's Grey Brown, Oklahoma State's Ryan Robinson, or Michigan State's Robert Haynes were the best in the class, and some really liked Wisconsin's Gary Tomlinson as a former walk-on farmhand country boy. The guard class was much weaker as Clemson's John Tripucka was the only one who even received a combine invite. Center had three solid prospects - Arizona State's TJ Brumm was nimble though injury prone, Washington's Don Teteak was the biggest and strongest, and Utah's Lloyd Nieves had playcalling experience. The offensive tackles were clearly the best feature, however. Highest Pick: Brown, 7th overall to the Lions. Best Player: Going strictly by overall, the answer is clearly Grey Brown as he has now hit a 96 overall and was a 2018 and 2019 Pro Bowler. An argument could be made for Ryan Robinson as he was a 2019 All-Pro along with a 2018 and 2019 Pro Bowler. Gary Tomlinson was a 2019 and 2020 Pro Bowler as well, though he's likely third best overall. Biggest Bust: There are a surprisingly large amount of busts in the first round. G John Tripucka (17th overall to Seattle) is an 87; OT Glenn Boyd (20th overall to Jacksonville) is an 85; OT Wesley Dawkins (21st overall to New Orleans) is an 86; and C TJ Brumm (24th to NYJ, now on Arizona) is an 85. Since Tripucka was a pick largely functioning from need, I'd give the overall nod to Glenn Boyd. Best Value: Forgive me if I missed someone, this is pretty tough to do when functioning from just overall. I'd give it to Ravens OT Carlos Gothard from Clemson, the 16th OT off the board in the 3rd round and now an 85 overall and starter in Baltimore. Chiefs' 4th round OG Boyd Buckley is also a starter, though he's just an 82 overall. Defensive Linemen Conventional Wisdom: Oklahoma State's Anthony Ortiz was super, super good. He even got some future Heisman hype but ended up declaring early. The rest of the defensive ends were just okay, although some liked Navy's Demarius Strong or Auburn's Brett Bailey. The defensive tackles didn't have a star player, but had a lot of good ones. Texas' Marlin Eason was coming off of a 9 sack season, Nebraska's Carnell Meadows was a strong run stopper who showed up the combine, and USC's Mike Wohlabaugh had the highest overall. Jones County Junior College entrant Kenneth Clarke was an intriguing prospect and Boise State's Nathan Knowlton had a strong combine despite a complete lack of pass rushing ability. Highest Pick: Ortiz, 3rd overall to the Bills. Best Player: Yeah, it's Ortiz. Wohlabaugh and Eason are good players, Meadows has had strong production at times, and Bailey has the NFLHC record for most sacks in a game, but Ortiz is clearly the best overall player. He's made the last two Pro Bowls, now has three consecutive seasons with at least 10 sacks, and has 46.5 through his five-year career thus far. Enough said. Biggest Bust: Man, those junior college players were intriguing... if only any that weren't linebackers turned out well. Kenneth Clarke was the 37th overall pick. He's now a 75 overall, has only made a statsheet one time in his career, and has no recorded career stats. Yeesh. Best Value: Big 6 foot 8 nose tackle Reggie Hedberg went to the expansion Eagles in the 4th round and so had the immediate opportunity to start. He didn't manage a sack as a rookie but played the run well, and still functions mainly as a run stopper, but he does have 12 career sacks to his name at this point. Fellow 4th rounder Joseph Owen has started a few games in New England and has 4.5 sacks with 2 FF and 2 FR this season. Linebackers Conventional Wisdom: Top two inside linebackers, Alabama's Tunch Richardson and Houston's Phillip Moore, dominated in college and were expected to be high draft picks. Preference came down to those who preferred athleticism and big game experience (Tunch) or intelligence and leadership (Moore). Texas A&M's Alex Martin wasn't considered a first round prospect though he eventually went there, but 76 tackles as a senior did help his case. Only Oklahoma State's Dewey Tomlinson and USC's Jimmy Workman got combine invites at ILB, but neither were regarded highly. Some thought fondly of Illinois' Zion Adakwa who produced well on a bad Illini team. At outside linebacker, Kansas State's David Doherty received incredible acclaim and was thought to the best OLB prospect since Tyrone Jones by some, although his production as a senior (55 tackles and a sack) was just alright. There were some decent second round prospects as well, like Arizona State's Thomas Barry and Minnesota's Leigh Davey. Highest Pick: Doherty, 12th overall. Best Player: Surprisingly, Alex Martin is the highest rated not just linebacker but defensive player from this class but I think the overall nod goes to Doherty. Despite a down 2021, he was a 2020 All-Pro at a stacked edge position and is the only player in this class to have made the Pro Bowl in all four possible seasons in which he could have made it. Doherty was starting to stack up the resume of a future Hall of Famer, although this down year doesn't help; but with the Titans having clinched their first division title and playoff appearance, some playoff accolades could help him out anyway. Biggest Bust: Up until his solid 2020, you could easily have argued for Moore; now, I'd go with 2nd round pick Tom Johnson who just hasn't progressed or produced much in his career. Boring pick, but there aren't many other choices here. Best Value: Adakwa is my (homer) pick here. Having progressed to an 89 overall already, his departure to Seattle for a fully guaranteed 4 year $46 million deal has hurt the Jets defensive significantly and despite never producing gaudy stats his impact as a defensive leader has always been felt. Honorable mention to now-49ers OLB Chris Reed, who went just two picks after Adakwa, having gone +5 this prior offseason and generally becoming a consistent producer in San Fran. Defensive Backs Conventional Wisdom: Alabama's Mike Gradishar was generally looked at as the top DB in the class. Some liked intriguing 4.5/4.5 early entry Laurent Christensen from Army, while Oregon product Corey Quinn destroyed the combine after a 4 interception senior year. Florida State's Michael Barber was a sneaky first round pick after a solid combine. Michigan State's Brandon Sauter was considered by far the best safety prospect in the class as someone who could both ballhawk and hit hard and his combine only confirmed that. Iowa State's Adam Newman topped Sauter's combine, who up to that point would have had the best strong safety combine in any class. And a lot of scouts loved Fresno State's Romulus Jackson after he nabbed 7 interceptions as a senior. There was a giant need for free safety throughout NFLHC... and yet zero were invited to the combine. A bunch of them were overdrafted and unsurprisingly none turned out very well. Highest Pick: Gradishar, 6th overall to Oakland. Best Player: By overall, it's Sauter. Corner is a more valuable position, and I'd be inclined to give it to Quinn, who's pretty close to Sauter but is struggling significantly in his transition to #1 corner this season; Gradishar has had a solid overall career as well. But Sauter has been the most consistent of all of them and his 7-interception 2018 is tied for the highest in a season with any of the corners in this season, so with his impact as an enforcer I'd give it to him overall. Biggest Bust: He's had a decent career to this point, but overall it's Michael Barber who went 32nd to Washington. Still a starter, he's a risk-taking ballhawk who doesn't get enough interceptions to justify his lapses in coverage. He's generally good for 2-4 interceptions a year but with Washington not that strong in coverage he's generally a weakness more than he's a strength, and at just 84 overall he probably won't be a starter for too much longer. Best Value: 5th round SS Norris Nolan has started in New England since his rookie year and he's always been solid - I'd actually describe him similarly to Barber in terms of interceptions and risk except he's higher overall and only cost a 5th round pick instead of a 1st. 5th round FS LaMichael Jones was one of the best taken despite being the 7th free safety taken. 4th round corner Lynn Perry has been a solid mainstay in the nickel for Baltimore and is good for an interception or two yearly. Indy's SS Chris Brown, taken at the 2nd to last pick of the 2nd, as though his stats aren't flashy he's a solid run stopper, fast enough to play proper coverage, and still able to nab a couple interceptions a season. His overall has also pretty consistently progressed him to the caliber of the first round guys of this same class. Special Teams Conventional Wisdom: Jason Sochia, Notre Dame's wiz-kid punter/kicker kicked a solid 75% on field goals while leading the nation in punting average. The kickers were highly regarded, with Texas' Gino Chiaverini, the nation's most accurate kicker, UCLA's Chris Hoag, the nation's strongest-legged kicker, and Florida State's Dennis Scott, a combination of the previously two mentioned attributes, were generally considered the best 3. Some liked Pitt's Stanley Brewster, although I'm not sure why. Highest Pick: Hoag, 104th overall to the Jets. Best Player: Hoag is actually having one of the best kicking seasons in NFLHC in 2021, but was relatively inconsistent up to this point. Chiaverini was probably the best kicker to this point, having been as advertised accuracy-wise. However, I'd give the overall nod to Sochia, the highest overall player to come out of the class and currently the NFLHC leader in punting average. Unlike Hoag, who's only been this good in 2021, he's been one of the top 5 punters in NFLHC essentially since he entered the league. Biggest Bust: Brewster was the 5th kicker off the board, 169th overall to the Giants. An 82 overall accuracy kicker who had a solid combine, he seemed destined to at least be a decent NFLHC kicker. It wasn't meant to be, as after missing just one kick per season in his first two years he kicked just 78% on field goal tries in his next two years and began missing extra points once they were moved back. After being let go by new GM deandean1998 he hasn't been able to find another NFLHC job. Best Value: Northwest Mississippi Community College Leon Woodruff was the 9th and final kicker off the board, but he's put in 5 solid seasons of work in Tennessee and has been an accurate 85% career kicker. Not too bad considering a few busts and worse kickers went ahead of him. Best and Worst Performing Teams The 2017 class was so rough in the late rounds that I have to award the best class to a team that only got production from their two first round picks. The Raiders got Mike Gradishar, a quality #1 CB, and Alex Martin, the highest rated defensive player and solid ILB, with their two first round picks. With no second round pick there isn't much to penalize there, and though 3rd round RB Chester Dorenbos was a bust there was no team that managed to avoid drafting busts. The value of those two first round picks on Vegas' solid defense is too much to pass up. The Texans, meanwhile, had a rough draft class. Despite 2 2nd round picks and 7 picks in the first four rounds total, not a single player still starts in NFLHC, let alone for the Texans. None of the players they drafted remain on the roster just 4 seasons later. The best pick was probably WR Gordon Kleinsasser, a guy who has declined from his rookie overall, or DT Nathan Knolwton who can't even nab a starting job on the Chargers.
  37. 25 points
    This is a teaser for the Chicago Tribune's (mostly) annual preseason ratings. As a reminder, the formula used takes into account past performance, recruiting rankings, and returning production. What you're about to see is where that as-yet-unreleased final rating compares to last year's performance as measured by readjusted margin of victory (which is opponent-adjusted margin of victory, but opponent-adjusted a second time)--not in comparison to their win-loss record. From worst to best, the ratings go: Freefall (regression worse than 2 standard deviations below the mean, 4 teams) Bearish (regression worse than 1 standard deviation below the mean, 16 teams) Mildly Bearish (regression worse than one-third of one standard deviation below the mean, 25 teams) Steady (within one-third of one standard deviation of the mean in either direction, 39 teams) Mildly Bullish (improvement better than one-third of one standard deviation above the mean, 25 teams) Bullish (improvement better than 1 standard deviation above the mean, 17 teams) Skyrocketing (improvement better than 2 standard deviations above the mean, 4 teams) One standard deviation amounts to ~22 spots in the improvement rankings. And keep in mind that this is all relative to last year; a top-level team with a bearish outlook is probably still in a better spot than a low-level team with a bullish outlook. Probably. AAC East Cincinnati: Mildly Bullish Connecticut: Steady East Carolina: Steady USF: Skyrocketing Temple: Mildly Bullish UCF: Bullish AAC West Houston: Steady Memphis: Mildly Bullish Navy: Mildly Bearish Tulsa: Mildly Bullish SMU: Steady Tulane: Mildly Bearish ACC Atlantic Boston College: Mildly Bullish Clemson: Mildly Bullish Florida State: Bullish Louisville: Mildly Bearish NC State: Bullish Syracuse: Steady Wake Forest: Bearish ACC Coastal Duke: Steady Georgia Tech: Mildly Bearish Miami (FL): Mildly Bullish North Carolina: Steady Pittsburgh: Bullish Virginia: Skyrocketing Virginia Tech: Steady Big XII Iowa State: Steady Kansas: Mildly Bullish Kansas State: Mildly Bearish Oklahoma: Skyrocketing West Virginia: Steady Baylor: Mildly Bullish Oklahoma State: Mildly Bullish TCU: Steady Texas: Bullish Texas Tech: Mildly Bearish Big Ten East Indiana: Freefall Maryland: Steady Michigan: Mildly Bearish Michigan State: Freefall Ohio State: Steady Penn State: Bullish Rutgers: Steady Big Ten West Illinois: Bearish Iowa: Mildly Bearish Minnesota: Bullish Nebraska: Mildly Bearish Northwestern: Mildly Bearish Purdue: Steady Wisconsin: Mildly Bearish C-USA East Charlotte: Steady Florida International: Steady Marshall: Mildly Bullish Middle Tennessee: Mildly Bullish Old Dominion: Mildly Bullish Western Kentucky: Mildly Bullish Florida Atlantic: Bullish C-USA West Louisiana Tech: Mildly Bearish Rice: Bullish North Texas: Mildly Bullish Southern Miss: Bullish UTEP: Mildly Bullish UTSA: Mildly Bullish UAB: Mildly Bullish MAC East Akron: Bearish Bowling Green: Bearish Buffalo: Bearish Kent State: Mildly Bearish Miami (OH): Bearish Ohio: Mildly Bearish MAC West Ball State: Bearish Central Michigan: Mildly Bullish Eastern Michigan: Mildly Bearish Northern Illinois: Mildly Bullish Toledo: Mildly Bearish Western Michigan: Steady MWC Mountain Air Force: Bearish Boise State: Bearish Colorado State: Steady New Mexico: Steady Utah State: Mildly Bearish Wyoming: Freefall MWC West Fresno State: Steady Hawaii: Mildly Bearish Nevada: Mildly Bullish San Diego State: Bullish San Jose State: Steady UNLV: Steady Pac-12 North California: Steady Oregon: Steady Oregon State: Bearish Stanford: Mildly Bearish Washington: Steady Washington State: Skyrocketing Pac-12 South Arizona: Bearish Arizona State: Mildly Bearish Colorado: Mildly Bullish UCLA: Bearish USC: Mildly Bearish Utah: Freefall SEC East Florida: Bearish Georgia: Mildly Bullish Kentucky: Mildly Bearish Missouri: Steady South Carolina: Bearish Tennessee: Mildly Bearish Vanderbilt: Bullish SEC West Alabama: Steady Arkansas: Steady Auburn: Steady LSU: Steady Mississippi State: Steady Ole Miss: Steady Texas A&M: Mildly Bullish Sun Belt East Appalachian State: Steady Coastal Carolina: Steady Georgia Southern: Bullish Georgia State: Mildly Bearish Troy: Mildly Bearish Sun Belt West Arkansas State: Steady Louisiana-Lafayette: Bearish Louisiana-Monroe: Steady South Alabama: Bullish Texas State: Bullish FBS Independents Notre Dame: Bearish BYU: Bullish Army: Bearish UMass: Steady Liberty: Steady New Mexico State: Mildly Bullish The numbers behind these ratings will be revealed as the season draws closer.
  38. 25 points
    Franz Kafka

    [2021] NFLHC Franzies

    Welcome to the 2021 edition of the Franzies! Full season awards given out to the best, brightest, and those who we may want to forget. Most Important Player Brian Brown, QB Best Coach inspiral Best Overall Team Butterfinger Ball Carrier Award (Most fumbles) Terrence Rodgers, RB - 6 fumbles, 5 lost Stonehands Award (Most drops) Tommy Pottios, WR - 10 drops Stickum Award (Most catches without a drop) Richard Wilson, WR - 78 catches Loss is More Award (Most tackles for loss) Ryan Frey, DE - 12 TFL Inch by Inch Award (Lowest yards per catch, minimum 50 catches) Tyron Chambers, WR 11.48 ypc, 60 catches Dangerzoneh 'Fullbacks Are People, Too' Award (Best offensive season by a FB) Alex Engram, FB - 9 carries, 23 yards, 3 TD Securing the Rock Award (Most carries without a fumble) Major Morris, RB - 229 carries Everyone is Fumbling Award (Team with the most lost fumbles) - 11 I Drop, You Drop, We All Drop the Passes (Team with the most drops) - 24 - 24 Quit While You're Ahead Award (Player with the highest QBR, regardless of attempts) Rob Corp, QB - 139.76 Dink and Dunk Award (lowest yards per pass attempt, regardless of attempts) Cody Albright, QB - 32 attempts, 4.13 ypa Tough Sledding Award (Lowest ypc, min. 100 carries) Daniel Hutchins, RB - 3.26 ypc on 115 carries Swiss Cheese Award (Lowest team OL rating) - 7.61 Go Deep Award (Highest yards per catch, minimum 50 catches) Brian Gary, TE 16.9 ypc, 52 catches Just Punt on Third Down Award (Lowest 3rd down %) - 23.53% Can't Get Off the Field Award (Highest opponents' 3rd down %) - 45.3% Sackmaster Award (Most sacks) Ron Rice, DE 16.5 Living in the Backfield Award (Most combined sacks and TFL) Ryan Frey, DE 26 (14.0 - 12) Useless Statline Award (Players who made a statsheet - barely) Offense: Will Fuller, RB - 2 carries, 0 yards Defense: Jared Clay, ILB - 3 tackles Special Teams: Tyler Oliva, K - 1/5 FG Who is This Guy Award (lowest rated player to score a touchdown) Mamadou Wynn, RB - 132 total yards, TD - 67 rating Mama, There Goes That Man Award (highest yards per carry, regardless of attempts) Marvin Washington, RB - 39 carries, 7.23 ypc Secret Service Award (Team who allowed the fewest sacks) 8 sacks allowed Thanos 'Perfectly Balanced' Award (team closest to 0 in point differential) +1 All Night Long Award (Back with the most carries Terrence Rodgers, RB 337 Out of the Backfield Award (Back with the most receiving yards) Mike Latta, RB 260 receiving yards Head in the Clouds Award (Tallest player to catch a pass) Kevin Knight, TE 6'8" - 31 catches, 439 yards, TD I Will Break You Award (Most forced fumbles) Barron Anthony, DE - 3 One Hit Wonder Award (Best stats in their only appearance) OFF: Rob Corp, QB 17/23, 260 yards, 2 TD DEF: Nathaniel Woodworth, CB 3 tackles, 2 INT, PD 70s are people, too (Best seasons from sub-80 rated players) OFF: Cody Hunter, WR 79 rating - 977 yards, 11 TD DEF: Kenji Sagatomo, OLB 79 rating - 44 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 5 TFL, 2 FF, PD This is Mine Award (Most interceptions) Cameron Newhouse, CB 9 INT -- Congratulations to all the winners!
  39. 25 points
    Time

    Roast Me (CFBHC Edition)

    At least he hasn't slowly quickly dismantled the best program in CFBHC history into a team that's 1 gave over .500
  40. 25 points
    Oklahoma State Fans Seek Stability In Coaching Warning: Tweets below contain adult language. For fans of Oklahoma State Cowboys, the 2021 season has been nothing short of a roller-coaster ride that everyone is ready to get off of. Before the season started, hype had reached heights that fans had not had in some time. Several mediocre seasons had built up to what looked to be a big leap forward for the program. Early previews already had them pegged as the one Big XII squad to really threaten the clear conference favorite, TCU. However, the season started off rocky. Following the departure of long-time coach panther553212 very early into the season, the university found themselves at a loss. Do they ride out the season with an interim and hope for the best? In this day and age, an interim coach can be a death-sentence for a program that seemed to have all the potential in the world. But what coach would take a job just after the season had begun? The school decided to start the coaching search in earnest. Well the prayers from Stillwater were quickly answered. Legendary coach and two-time national champion randye4 jumped at the opportunity to once again be in the national spotlight. The FAU coach seemed to be the perfect man for the job, but led the team to a 30-33 OT loss against a tough Virginia Tech team. However, the veteran coach got the team firing on all cylinders and stomped all competition in their way. Fan hype was again at an all time high. With a high powered team and a legendary coach at the helm, what could derail a season where fate seemed to be back on their side? Nobody coaches forever. Coaches have an ideal time where they see themselves riding off into the sunset of retirement, but life frequently has other plans. Coach randye4 stepped down following a big win over USC due to life events, leaving fans confused and wondering about the future of their team. The school once again found themselves scrambling to find another coach for the second time in a matter of weeks. It was clear they wouldn't be able to find another Hall of Famer like randye4, and the middle of the season is an even tougher time to get a new coach to come to campus. The school finally wound up picking ZackTyzwyz, the young coach from Utah State, as their third coach for the 2021 season. Largely unproven on the national scene, coach ZackTyzwyz had pulled the Aggies out of the pits of the Mountain West and gotten them to historic season capped off with a first-ever bowl appearance and victory. But the Cowboys were a different beast entirely, and needed a coach that knows how to lead a high-caliber team. Nevertheless, fan's hopes were cautiously optimistic. The administration seemed confident in their new choice, and the new coach inherited a healthy 5-1 team with a winnable game at home against the Kansas Jayhawks to ease into the new job. But the game ended up being a rout, with Kansas blowing out the Cowboys in front of a hopeful home crowd. Things once again seem desperate in Stillwater, and with a tough game at Texas looming overhead on Saturday night, it seems like this roller-coaster ride of a season isn't over yet. See fan reactions captured on social media below (some are explicit):
  41. 24 points
    Soluna

    CFBHC v1.6b

    CFBHC v1.6b January 7th, 2018 Pre-Release v1.6.2.9 Notes: Thanks to all those who submitted feedback to Jumbo's committee and thanks especially to Jumbo for helping me process some of the information. As usual thanks to all those I asked to test various parts of this. General Info / Idea Requested feature suggested by a few users. Additional features related to conditional recruits will be added in the future. CFBHC Changed the coaching skills rules as follows: For each year you coached at least 80% of your teams games you may +4 to attributes and -2 to different attributes. You cannot raise and lower the same skill in one offseason. When you add or subtract skills in a year they can split amongst all categories, they just cannot be +/- in the same year, you don't have to add 4 to a single category. For example if you coached 11 games of a 13 game season for a specific school you coached 85% of that teams season and will be allowed to credit that year to be added for your skills. You choose to add 2 to offense, 1 to defense, and 1 to discipline, you then choose to remove 1 from special teams and 1 from youth management. Added conditional recruits beginning with the 2023 CFBHC season. Conditional recruits cannot be recruited by using recruiting points. Conditional recruits will commit to a school based on which school fulfills the conditional goal of the recruit. Current examples include: specific conference champions, best record or highest ranking in a specific state, depending on results of rivalry games, and several other conditional goals. Added base framework for active offseason "recruiting camp" mini game that will occur during the site progression-offseason and will tie in with the conditional recruits.
  42. 24 points
    So I've been thinking about this game ever since I saw the game result. And I have been looking both rosters trying to figure out what could TCU have done to try and get a better result on the field. I don't want this to be taken the wrong way or anything by anyone, but I enjoy the roster building and scheme planning side of the game and honestly want to evaluate the whole thing. There are a few things. ATH Griffin McHanna 5-10 184 (Jr) Central (Independence, OR) 4.0 of 5.0 [Speed] Currently playing WR2. He is a small, shifty guy who caught 50 passes for 660 yards and 7 TDs. He is in front of WR F.T. Grady 6-3 211 (Fr) Brackett (Brackettville TX) 3.0 of 4.5 [Target] and WR Rodrigo Marroquin 5-11 153 (Fr) St. Joseph (Brownsville TX) 2.0 of 4.5 [Speed]. Both of these guys are young and unproven, but FT caught 2 TDs in this game and made the most of his opportunity. My question here is if he is an athlete, could he fit better in the slot and allow for the larger FT Grady to be that larger WR2 on the outside opposite Finn Nielsen? RB Martin Gifford 5-10 216 (Jr) Fort Stockton (Stockton, TX) 4.0 of 4.0 [Power] RB Matteo Cates 5-9 179 (Fr) Robert E. Lee (Baytown TX) 2.0 of 5.0 [Speed] Cates looks like he could be a dynamic player in this offense. It seems out of character for a TCU team to not try and include a young, high potential player in as a starter or at least involve him in some way. With the departure of Shamar Buroughs, I know that TCU needed to find something that would fill his role on offense. But with a young guy like that and an older vet like Gifford, why not attempt to catch Auburn off guard and run Cates as a 3rd down back? He's small and a speed guy that might work well as an outlet or dump off if Auburn blitzes heavily. But on a day when the TCU running game only got 12 carries, Cates might not have helped all that much honestly. PR Byron Whitley 5-9 196 Fr Shiner (Shiner TX) 2.0 of 4.5 [Hybrid] Is not redshirting and is listed on the depth chart once. At WR6. Now, Auburn didn't punt too much today, but if you are going to have a specialist like this on the depth chart use him in the role that he is good at doing. By all means, have him on the WR depth chart, but for Griffin McHanna to be over him when he finished 5th in the conference in Punt Return yards and 8th in Kick Return yards last year... Offensive Line LT OT Tyson Chadwick 6-7 291 (Sr) Brackett (Brackettville, TX) 5.0 of 5.0 [Pass Blocking] OT Richard Messina 6-2 311 Sr Ketchum (Ketchum, OK) 2.5 of 2.5 [Run Blocking] OT Marshal Anderson 6-3 265 (Fr) Shelton (Dallas TX) 2.0 of 3.5 [Pass Blocking] LG OG Antonio Logan 6-1 277 (Fr) Goliad (Goliad TX) 2.0 of 4.5 [Run Blocking] C C James Kaplan 6-2 302 So Floydada (Floydada TX) 4.0 of 4.0 [Pass Blocking] RG OG Josh Carlisle 6-3 323 (Jr) Cooper (Cooper, TX) 4.0 of 4.0 [Pass Blocking] OG Vic Purvis 6-6 318 So Crowell (Crowell TX) 1.5 of 3.0 [Run Blocking] OG Kaili Malielegaoi 6-6 326 Fr Apple Springs (Apple Springs TX) 2.0 of 2.5 [Pass Blocking] RT ATH Hayden Breaux 6-4 245 Fr Elsik (Houston TX) 2.0 of 4.5 [Run Blocking] OT Maxwell Sosa 6-4 307 Sr Kashmere (Houston, TX) 2.5 of 2.5 [Pass Blocking] OT Solomon De La Puente 6-7 283 Fr Robert E. Lee (Baytown TX) 1.0 of 2.0 [Pass Blocking] Why are there no backups listed for Center and LG? I understand that you're thin at those positions, but they need backups. And now for the thing that I think is the biggest concern that I have with TCU going forward. Defensive scheme. A team that has the following: (#) is how many 4.0 or higher potential players they have on the roster. Blitz OLB - Will ILB (2) - Mike ILB - Blitz OLB Contain DE - 2 Gap DT (3) - Contain DE Should be running what? If you answered 4-3, you guessed what TCU ran against Auburn and ran last year as well. I have concerns for this scheme fit as it appears that TCU has the perfect build to run a fantastic 3-4 defense with both OLB Chance Herring 5-11 231 (Sr) Bryan (Bryan, TX) 5.0 of 5.0 [Blitz] and OLB Richard Farrell 6-2 236 (So) Bonham (Bonham TX) 3.0 of 5.0 [Blitz] coming off the edge to terrorize the QB or running back. And if they don't get to him, TCU has DE Aidan McAlister 6-0 264 (Sr) Lone Grove (Lone Grove, OK) 4.5 of 4.5 [Contain] and DE Aidan Morrell 6-2 266 Sr Goliad (Goliad, TX) 4.5 of 4.5 [Contain] to back that up. The edge of this defense is no joke. And with DT Kwon Shaw 6-4 284 So Port Neches-Groves (Port Neches TX) 4.0 of 5.0 [2-Gap] or DT Jasiah Pickens 6-1 334 (Sr) Rising Star (Rising Star, TX) 4.5 of 4.5 [2-Gap] staring at you up the middle, this defense should be the scariest front 7 in the country. Then why did Aiden Morrell lead the defense with 5 sacks last year with a team total of 16 which was good for 8th in the conference last year beating out Iowa State and West Virginia? I understand that there is a plethora of talent here, but it just seems like it is all mismatched. And this team seems like it is the poster child for experimenting with the new player positions. There are plenty of ways that TCU can use the talent that is on the Front 7 here to minimize opposing teams offenses. One of the DTs could be a designated Nose Tackle if you want to keep the guys fresh. Sam, Jack and Bandit are available to be used in a 3-4 and with a 2/4.5 Mike sitting at ILB3 behind 2 Wills, TCU has the depth to utilize their Linebackers in such a way so that they can get most of those quality guys on the field as possible in any situation. Conclusion: And this isn't to say that TCU is bad or anything. On offense, they are young, but they have a QB who played great against an equally great team in Auburn, a stable of WRs that are all great talents in and of themselves. A great TE that can work wonders with Luck. And 2 RBs that could be a great fit for spreading the ball around and picking up those rushing numbers you need to set all of the above up. Imagine having those WRs out on the field and having the defense guessing on a play action pass. With Luck and those WRs/TE, that could be deadly. They finished among the top in country last year on defense. On 3rd downs last season, they were 1st in the conference and the only team below 30% opposing 3rd down conversion rate which is insane and has only been done 3 other times in conference history. They are chock-full of players on that defense to shut down anyone in the country. They have the talent to do great things and can be a force to be reckoned with. But if TCU wants to run the table and possibly even win a rematch, there are definitely some things that they need to think about. All of this being said, TCU can and should easily be a favorite to win the Big 12. They have the talent and that is a credit to Danger for bringing in that talent. He is a great coach and worthy conference rival. Am I nitpicking? Probably. Hell, they only lost by 7 to a Marcus Black led Auburn team. But they have room for improvement and can be in the conversation of the best team in the country. If they assume they can out-talent teams, I wouldn't be surprised if they drop another one or two.
  43. 24 points
    You're welcome to change the fonts to the below layout but please keep the names of units the exact same as listed here. Simply list your players below each heading, please leave a space after the last listed player per block, prior to the next heading. Minimum required sections: Offense Quarterback Running Back Fullback Wide Receivers Tight Ends Left Tackle Left Guard Center Right Guard Right Tackle Defense Left Defensive End Defensive Tackles Right Defensive End Left Outside Linebacker Inside Linebackers Right Outside Linebacker Cornerbacks Free Safety Strong Safety Special Teams Kicker Punter Longsnapper Kick Returner Punt Returner Holder Kickoff Team Hands Team Punt Return Team Inactive Redshirts Transfer Ineligible Alternative labels can be found below. These are entirely optional but would be read correctly. Each should be after it's main designation above. For example 3rd Down Running Back should be listed after Running Back
  44. 24 points
    Soluna

    [2022] Weekly Schedule

    Last Updated 9/5/2018 - Under construction. Monday 8 PM Eastern - NFLHC MNF Tuesday Wednesday Thursday 8 PM Eastern - CFBHC TNF 8 PM Eastern - NFLHC TNF Friday 8 PM Eastern - CFBHC FNF Saturday 12 PM Eastern - CFBHC Saturday Morning 3 PM Eastern - CFBHC Saturday Afternoon 6 PM Eastern - CFBHC Saturday Evening 9 PM Eastern - CFBHC Saturday Night Sunday 1 PM Eastern - NFLHC 1 PM 4 PM Eastern - NFLHC 4 PM 8 PM Eastern - NFLHC SNF
  45. 24 points
    The following ranking was generated based on how close coaches are to executing the perfect gameplan for their lineup, efficiency with the gameplan versus opposition, depth chart management, and recruiting. There have been roughly 450 coaches that I could accurately parse data for so this represent slightly less than the top 5% all time users. If you are on this list you should feel very proud - but that isn't to discourage other users. I chose not to reveal the full list for obvious reasons but I may figure out a way (maybe asking in this thread?) to give you a rating for yourself if you aren't on this list so you can maybe compare. Not sure yet. Bold coaches are still active.
  46. 23 points
    How to Win a Heisman - an Impractical Manual Presented by The Clorox Bleach Report, whose staff has coached 3 out of 9 Heisman winners. No other media outlet has ever coached a Heisman winner, though that doesn't seem to stop them from posting predictions. The Heisman Trophy is the highest honor for a college football player. It’s awarded annually to the best player each season, as selected by a biased an elite group of CFBHC coaches. However, defining something as vague as “best” across all the positions on the field is hardly an easy task. For a player to set himself apart, it really takes a special season. Lots of players have great stats each season, so performance must be unsurpassed...and you also need a bit of luck, or maybe cheating. In this article, the only coach of two Heisman winners will see if he can define a few of the tangibles that transform an unforgettable season into a Heisman trophy campaign. Let’s start by looking at all of the previous winners - especially the ones that I coached. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results* The following players have cemented their legacy by winning the Heisman: 2013 Allan Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech 2014 Brian Brown, QB, Boise State 2015 Todd Jennings, QB, Penn State 2016 Norris Brooksheer, QB, Oklahoma 2017 Aaron Shea, QB, Missouri 2018 Jaz Durant, RB, Auburn 2019 Dylan Bishop, QB, Syracuse 2020 Mohammed Foster, QB, West Virginia 2021 Tucker Dowden, QB, Missouri 2022 Bryce Thompson, QB, Duke - oh shoot I wasn’t supposed to…(this is a joke, I have no idea who will win and am not involved in voting. Though Thompson feels like the right choice to me, I am often wrong - don’t tell my wife I said that.) Rule 1: Play QB Only one non-quarterback has ever won the Heisman trophy during it’s 9 year history: RB Jaz Durant in 2018. And Durant stole it from the best player that season: Matty Swift (t-shirts still available). How did Durant make the jump past the gaggle of QBs? It was one of the most even fields of players ever assembled. Durant beat out QB Alex LeShoure by 1 single point. The 3rd and 4th place finishers were the best QB that year and another RB, both within 10 points of Durant. The voting was split and Durant squeaked into first place. That isn’t to say that Durant isn’t worthy, but he had to post almost 2000 yards in a 1-loss regular season (to the eventual National Champions), 21 rushing TDs, and 6.63 YPC, in order to win over a QB everyone hates in a split vote. Rule 2: Don’t Win the Natty Okay, obviously this happens after the trophy is awarded, but it’s such a strong trend that it has to be accounted for. No Heisman winner has ever won the National Championship. Todd Jennings in 2015 and Tucker Dowden in 2021 are the only Heisman winners to play in the Natty, but both lost in close games. What we still don’t know is whether the Heisman Trophy causes this problem. So when you’re making your Tucker Dowden championship run, you better decide whether you want a Heisman or a Natty, because you can’t have both. Myths Busted: Older players have a better chance at winning. The only two players to win as Redshirt Seniors were Missouri QBs Aaron Shea and Tucker Dowden. Remainder by class: 1 Sr, 2 (Jr), 2 Jr, 1 (So) The Player has to be a 5.0/5.0. Only 6 out of 9 players were 5.0/5.0 during their Heisman seasons. Remainder: 4.0/4.0, 4.0/4.5, 4.5/4.5 You must win your conference. 5 out of 9 player did NOT win their conference the year of their trophy. In fact, 4 out of 9 didn’t even play in their conference championship game! An undefeated regular season is a requirement. The Heisman winner has lost a regular season game every season since 2015. So I suggest you throw a game to improve your odds of locking up the trophy. Dylan Bishop had 3 regular season losses and still caught that bling. Coach Tidbits: 8 coaches have won 9 trophies, with yours truly being the only two time winner. I have no intentions of winning a third, but I will if you don’t stop me. Soluna, smackems, and ChicagoTed are the only other coaches who have remained active. All but smackems have moved on from the team where their player was awarded. Actual Advice: And finally, if you'll allow me to leave you with a piece of actual advice. Not only do you need a player who competes stat-wise at the highest level, you need a low key hype strategy. Without annoying the ever loving mpost2 out of everyone (please don't make me regret this), you need to create the narrative of your player. Put your player in a position to build great stats and win big games - and point out when they do so. Sometimes the stories run themselves and you can be hands off, but sometimes your player is Marcus Black who loses every big game and can only complete 66% of his passes his Senior year. The Bleach Report Heisman years are excellent use cases to study: Aaron Shea had a great year, but I had to lean on the run game in close matchups to surprise opponents and steal wins...but he had the first ever standalone website, a truly ridiculous idea, that got people hype. Shea got all the credit at the end of the season, but if you look back, 4* RB Caleb Sherwin blew up #13 ND and #3 UGA to get him there. Mohammed Foster got preseason hype with the JC Weldon transfer and annihilated some early opponents, and then rode the 'mofo' nickname by carrying his team on his back to the playoffs, scoring a record setting number of touchdowns. Tucker Dowden won in landslide with the highest completion percentage ever thrown in college against a brutal SEC schedule - but maybe no one would have noticed that stat if I didn't point it out. I do not believe my attempt at creating "The Year of the Dowden" had any affect, but it did provide some early season attention. Did Bleach Report get something wrong in this article? Let us know in an email to: writeyourownd@mnmedia.youlazybum
  47. 23 points
    Note: These are the highest sim generated season grades for the offensive skill position players which take opponents into account as well as the skill of players associated with their role. So a QBs rating takes into consideration how well his o-line and receivers have played as well as how high of a skill the opponents have been. Maximum rating is 100.00. All ratings are through Week #9. This is not necessarily a comparative ranking of players in each group but more of a rating how well they've played this year up to this point. Quarterbacks Troy McMurray (94.39) - Senior (129/171 for 1847 yards (75.44%), 16 touchdowns, 1 interception; 49 attempts for 419 yards, 5 touchdowns) Eric McLean (92.64) - Senior (191/277 for 2567 yards (68.95%), 25 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) Akiem Williams III (90.53) - Senior (146/211 for 1939 yards (69.19%), 16 touchdowns, 3 interceptions; 45 attempts for 380 yards, 6 touchdowns) David Edmondson (87.85) - Junior (144/212 for 1844 yards (67.92%), 17 touchdowns, 2 interceptions) Bryce Thompson (87.61) - Junior (137/198 for 1900 yards (69.19%), 15 touchdowns, 3 interceptions; 51 attempts for 407 yards, 7 touchdowns) Running Backs DeSean Madison (95.15) - Junior (157 attempts for 1056 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 fumbles, 1 lost) Solomon McLaughlin (95.09) - Junior (184 attempts for 1119 yards for 14 touchdowns, 4 fumbles, 3 lost) Franklin Riggins (91.25) - Senior (162 attempts for 1001 yards, 13 touchdowns, 1 fumble, 1 lost) Stephen Cunningham (89.63) - Sophomore (152 attempts for 928 yards, 14 touchdowns, 1 fumble, 0 lost) Maurice White (89.44) - Senior (161 attempts for 1029 yards, 12 touchdowns, 1 fumble, 0 lost) Wide Receivers Tyler Sterling (89.67) - Sophomore (49 receptions for 727 yards, 6 touchdowns, 0 drops) Gavin Faulk (89.46) - Senior (62 receptions for 843 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 drops) Ryan Childs (89.02) - Senior (38 receptions for 706 yards, 10 touchdowns, 0 drops) Deontray Clay (87.26) - Sophomore (48 receptions for 733 yards, 6 touchdowns, 2 drops) Andrew Harrison (85.57) - Sophomore (43 receptions for 661 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 drop) Tight Ends (Receiving) Jonas Schumacher (88.07) - Junior (37 receptions for 567 yards, 6 touchdowns, 0 drops) Jaime Bautista (86.59) - Senior (55 receptions for 695 yards, 6 touchdowns, 2 drops) Garrett Taylor (85.02) - Senior (36 receptions for 546 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 drops) Kameron McCrary (82.46) - Freshman (44 receptions for 565 yards, 5 touchdowns, 0 drops) Anthony Adams (81.26) - Freshman (47 receptions for 624 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 drops)
  48. 23 points
    Hello everyone! Since the top recruits page on the interface is down, I'd thought it'd be fun to look at which recruits teams are being highly recruited by some of the nation's top programs. I've included every 4.0+ player with at least two teams within five points of each other. This is where we stand after two rounds of commitments. Who do you think goes where? Any surprises? Let's discuss! Max Olson Fontana (Fontana, CA) RB Power Fr 5-10 224 1.0 of 4.5 Takoda Sheldon Loganville (Loganville, GA) RB Power Fr 6-0 226 1.0 of 4.0 Cameron Caldwell (G5) Central (Independence, OR) FB Pass Blocking Fr 5-10 231 1.0 of 4.5 Damian Smart Pineville (Pineville, LA) FB Run Blocking Fr 6-1 234 1.0 of 4.0 Pu'a'ho Esera Hoover (Hoover, AL) WR Target Fr 6-5 201 2.0 of 4.0 Kevin Hill Paraclete (Lancaster, CA) TE Blocking Fr 6-3 244 1.5 of 4.0 Bo Patrick Asheboro (Asheboro, NC) TE Receiving Fr 6-4 200 2.0 of 4.0 Henry Fitzpatrick Saltsburg (Saltsburg, PA) OT Pass Blocking Fr 6-7 306 1.0 of 4.0 Aaron Varela Paradise (Paradise, TX) OG Pass Blocking Fr 6-4 299 2.0 of 4.5 Patrick Lyles Comanche (Comanche, TX) OG Run Blocking Fr 6-4 313 1.0 of 4.0 Shiloh Marshall Wilcox County (Rochelle, GA) OG Pass Blocking Fr 6-5 332 1.0 of 4.0 Trevor Ashton Whitehaven (Memphis, TN) C Run Blocking Fr 6-1 279 1.0 of 4.0 Lucas Stahl North Florida Christian (FL) DT 1-Gap Fr 6-3 314 1.0 of 5.0 Tugboat Barber Flushing (Flushing, MI) DT 2-Gap Fr 6-7 282 2.0 of 4.0 William Hollis Valley (Bakersfield, CA) ILB Mike Fr 6-4 228 1.0 of 4.0 Cody Stallings Deerfield Beach (Deerfield Beach, FL) ILB Mike Fr 6-3 255 1.5 of 4.0 Grant Morrison DeLaSalle (Minneapolis, MN) ILB Mike Fr 6-1 248 1.0 of 5.0 Garrett Christiansen Eunice (Eunice, LA) OLB Blitz Fr 6-0 238 1.0 of 4.0 Darron Reed St. Stephen's (Austin, TX) CB Man Coverage Fr 6-0 167 1.0 of 4.0 Randall Taylor Cook (Adel, GA) CB Zone Coverage Fr 6-2 174 2.0 of 4.0 Judge Hargrove DeLeon (DeLeon, TX) FS Man Coverage Fr 5-10 212 1.0 of 4.0 Quinn Stout La Marque (La Marque, TX) FS Zone Coverage Fr 6-1 189 1.5 of 4.0 Branden Bonner Centennial (Corona, CA) FS Man Coverage Fr 6-2 194 1.5 of 4.5 Romeo Smith Staley (Kansas City, MO) SS Man Coverage Fr 6-2 215 1.5 of 4.5 David Finley Liberal (Liberal, KS) SS Man Coverage Fr 6-0 200 2.0 of 4.5 Hayden Treat North Atlanta (Atlanta, GA) K Power Fr 6-4 181 1.0 of 4.0 Oliver Shannon Grand Valley (Parachute, CO) K Power Fr 6-4 203 1.0 of 4.0 Kaholo Siula St. Louis (Honolulu, HI) P Power Fr 5-9 201 2.0 of 4.0 Travis Hurt St. Xavier (Cincinnati, OH) LS Specialized Fr 6-3 261 1.0 of 5.0 Charone Osgood Saguaro (Scottsdale, AZ) LS Traditional Fr 6-0 271 1.0 of 4.0
  49. 23 points
    Soluna

    100 Years since World War I

    I made a donation in everyone's name as I've done in the past around this time of the year. This year I picked the multinational cemetery associated with the battle of Passchendaele. Take some time today to remember the amount of people that died because of reckless nationalistic hate. In Flanders fields the poppies blow Between the crosses, row on row, That mark our place; and in the sky The larks, still bravely singing, flyScarce heard amid the guns below.We are the Dead. Short days agoWe lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow, Loved and were loved, and now we lie In Flanders fields.Take up our quarrel with the foe:To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who dieWe shall not sleep, though poppies grow In Flanders fields.
  50. 23 points
    Jumbo

    Committee Feedback Update #1

    Hey! So as promised, here's an update on some of the feedback that's been proposed by users. Feel free to comment on anything that's been proposed here and potential implementations thereof if you think you might have any potential improvements. If you want to get in any feedback for improvements, or even general comments that wouldn't go in a post like this, please do post in the committee feedback forum - thanks. Approved Feedback Request: Could we set our pass rush front 4? Some teams might want one scheme as their base, but have a better pass rush during obvious pass downs from the other. Like, maybe I want DE - DT - DT - DE as my 1st and 2nd down front four, but when it comes to passing, I would prefer OLB - DE - DT - DE. This has been approved for implementation in the 2023 season (NFLHC only), assuming no bugs in the implementation process. ___________________________ Request: Coaches would like the ability to have separate aggression sliders for offense and defense. The consensus seems to be if it’s an easy item to add it would be a great addition. This has been approved for implementation in the 2023 season (NFLHC only), assuming no bugs in the implementation process. ___________________________ Request: Change the 20% minimum dropoff per year of NFLHC contracts to a higher number to avoid gamey contracts such as those that have occurred in recent free agency periods. This has been approved for implementation starting this NFLHC offseason, though the exact change to these rules is yet to be exactly determined. Here's an example of rejected feedback --- Request: We feel the IR rules would benefit from the addition of some flexibility. A team should be able to designate a guy for return from IR regardless of how long they are out. They would just be required to sit out 8 total weeks before return. Keep the limit to 2 returners per year to limit abuse of the system. Reason for rejection: People already mess up their DC often enough by playing injured players that I don't want to make the system more flexible right now. If people can follow the rules in place, I'll consider changes. If you have any comments or expansions on what's been mentioned in here, please feel free to post! The whole purpose of this system is to engage with the community.
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