stormstopper

Love seeing Christian Graham show out!

Boston College: 165 (-5) Syracuse: 40 (+5) Pittsburgh: 50

Here's to boldly going where no Devil has gone before!

I'll add that part of the reason for including good-case and bad-case scenarios is that most of the teams projected to win their divisions with 9 wins probably won't do that--even if the ratings were somehow perfect. A team with a 0.5 probability of beating an evenly matched team won't actually collect 0.5 wins; they'll either get 1 or 0, and by chance some teams will collect 1 more often than 0, so this is intended to show who can be in the mix if they overperform.

With the NFL preseason on the horizon, college football is closer than ever. We're now close enough to take our fifth and final look at the national landscape: win projections. This was meant to go out last weekend, but our crack team of nerds has spent the last week adjusting our win projections formula a little bit this year based on the degree to which last year's formulas fit the actual results. (For posterity, the correct winner was chosen about 74% of the time, the median difference between the expected and actual margin of victory was 9 points, road teams covered a little less than 52% of the time, and favorites only covered about 43% of the time.) This year's win projections will also be presented a bit differently. First will be where we are actually projecting the season to go. But we know that some teams will overperform expectations and some will underperform, so we'll also present a Bad-Case Scenario and a Good-Case Scenario for each team. This is defined as over- or underperforming by 11.7 points per game, or 1.5 times last year's standard deviation of 7.8 points-per-game-compared-to-expectation. (Smaller variations don't create enough difference to make a point, and larger variations' differences are too big for their point to be meaningful.) In other words, these are not worst- and best-case scenarios, but ideally a strong majority of teams will fall inside this range. Enough shop talk, let's dig in to what you came for. This is the final part of a five-part series. I. Expected Scenario Ordered by projected conference record American Athletic Conference SMU (11.2-0.8 overall, 7.8-0.2 AAC) Navy (8.5-3.5 overall, 5.5-2.5 AAC) Temple (8.8-3.2 overall, 5.5-2.5 AAC) USF (7.7-4.3 overall, 4.8-3.2 AAC) East Carolina (7-5 overall, 4.6-3.4 AAC) Tulsa (5.6-6.4 overall, 3.8-4.2 AAC) UCF (6-6 overall, 3.5-4.5 AAC) Memphis (4.6-7.4 overall, 3-5 AAC) Cincinnati (6.2-5.8 overall, 2.9-5.1 AAC) Houston (2.7-9.3 overall, 1.4-6.6 AAC) Tulane (1.4-10.6 overall, 1.2-6.8 AAC) Atlantic Coast Conference Atlantic Division Clemson (10.6-1.4 overall, 7.2-0.8 ACC) Florida State (8.6-3.4 overall, 6.2-1.8 ACC) Boston College (8.2-3.8 overall, 5-3 ACC) NC State (4.1-7.9 overall, 2.8-5.2 ACC) Louisville (4.6-7.4 overall, 2.6-5.4 ACC) Syracuse (2.4-9.6 overall, 1.4-6.6 ACC) Wake Forest (0.8-11.2 overall, 0.6-7.4 ACC) Coastal Division Duke (9.4-2.6 overall, 6.2-1.8 ACC) Miami (FL) (8.8-3.2 overall, 5.9-2.1 ACC) Virginia (8.8-3.2 overall, 5.6-2.4 ACC) Pittsburgh (8.7-3.3 overall, 5.5-2.5 ACC) Virginia Tech (6.8-5.2 overall, 4.4-3.6 ACC) North Carolina (2.2-9.8 overall, 1.3-6.7 ACC) Georgia Tech (2.2-9.8 overall, 1.3-6.7 ACC) Big XII Conference TCU (8.8-3.2 overall, 7.3-1.7 Big XII) Oklahoma (9.2-2.8 overall, 7-2 Big XII) Oklahoma State (8.5-3.5 overall, 6-3 Big XII) Baylor (7-5 overall, 4.4-4.6 Big XII) West Virginia (6.7-5.3 overall, 4.4-4.6 Big XII) Texas Tech (6.9-5.1 overall, 4.3-4.7 Big XII) Texas (5-7 overall, 3.4-5.6 Big XII) Iowa State (4.3-7.7 overall, 2.9-6.1 Big XII) Kansas State (4.2-7.8 overall, 2.8-6.2 Big XII) Kansas (4.3-7.7 overall, 2.5-6.5 Big XII) Big Ten Conference East Division Michigan (8.5-3.5 overall, 6.5-2.5 Big Ten) Penn State (8.5-3.5 overall, 6.4-2.6 Big Ten) Michigan State (6.9-5.1 overall, 5.2-3.8 Big Ten) Maryland (6.6-5.4 overall, 5.1-3.9 Big Ten) Ohio State (6-6 overall, 4.9-4.1 Big Ten) Indiana (2.7-9.3 overall, 2-7 Big Ten) Rutgers (2.9-9.1 overall, 2-7 Big Ten) West Division Illinois (10.7-1.3 overall, 7.8-1.2 Big Ten) Purdue (9.5-2.5 overall, 6.8-2.2 Big Ten) Minnesota (7.8-4.2 overall, 5.2-3.8 Big Ten) Nebraska (6.2-5.8 overall, 4.6-4.4 Big Ten) Iowa (4.7-7.3 overall, 3.1-5.9 Big Ten) Wisconsin (3.6-8.4 overall, 1.8-7.2 Big Ten) Northwestern (3.2-8.8 overall, 1.5-7.5 Big Ten) Conference USA East Division Florida International (8.4-3.6 overall, 5.6-2.4 C-USA) Western Kentucky (6.3-5.7 overall, 5.3-2.7 C-USA) Charlotte (7.4-4.6 overall, 5-3 C-USA) Old Dominion (6.5-5.5 overall, 4.1-3.9 C-USA) Florida Atlantic (5.8-6.2 overall, 3.8-4.2 C-USA) Middle Tennessee (2.7-9.3 overall, 1.4-6.6 C-USA) Marshall (1.6-10.4 overall, 1.3-6.7 C-USA) West Division Rice (10.3-1.7 overall, 7.2-0.8 C-USA) UTSA (8.4-3.6 overall, 5.6-2.4 C-USA) North Texas (8.1-3.9 overall, 5.5-2.5 C-USA) Southern Miss (6.8-5.2 overall, 4.4-3.6 C-USA) UAB (6.1-5.9 overall, 4.3-3.7 C-USA) Louisiana Tech (2-10 overall, 1.4-6.6 C-USA) UTEP (2.1-9.9 overall, 1.1-6.9 C-USA) Mid-American Conference East Division Ohio (7.7-4.3 overall, 5-3 MAC) Akron (6.3-5.7 overall, 4.2-3.8 MAC) Buffalo (4-8 overall, 3.4-4.6 MAC) Bowling Green (4.8-7.2 overall, 2.8-5.2 MAC) Kent State (4.1-7.9 overall, 2.8-5.2 MAC) Miami (OH) (3.1-8.9 overall, 2.4-5.6 MAC) West Division Western Michigan (10.9-1.1 overall, 7.4-0.6 MAC) Central Michigan (9.8-2.2 overall, 6.7-1.3 MAC) Toledo (6.9-5.1 overall, 5.3-2.7 MAC) Ball State (6-6 overall, 4.1-3.9 MAC) Eastern Michigan (4-8 overall, 2.7-5.3 MAC) Northern Illinois (1.9-10.1 overall, 1.1-6.9 MAC) Mountain West Conference Mountain Division Air Force (6.6-5.4 overall, 4.9-3.1 MWC) Boise State (7.2-4.8 overall, 4.3-3.7 MWC) Colorado State (5-7 overall, 3.8-4.2 MWC) Utah State (5.1-6.9 overall, 3-5 MWC) New Mexico (4.6-7.4 overall, 3-5 MWC) Wyoming (3.6-8.4 overall, 1.8-6.2 MWC) West Division Hawaii (10.6-1.4 overall, 6.9-1.1 MWC) San Diego State (10.4-1.6 overall, 6.8-1.2 MWC) Fresno State (6.8-5.2 overall, 5.4-2.6 MWC) Nevada (7.5-4.5 overall, 5.1-2.9 MWC) San Jose State (2.9-9.1 overall, 2-6 MWC) UNLV (1.9-10.1 overall, 1-7 MWC) Pac-12 Conference North Division Oregon (9-3 overall, 7.2-1.8 Pac-12) Washington (8.4-3.6 overall, 6.3-2.7 Pac-12) California (7.1-4.9 overall, 5.3-3.7 Pac-12) Washington State (6.9-5.1 overall, 4.6-4.4 Pac-12) Stanford (3.8-8.2 overall, 2.7-6.3 Pac-12) Oregon State (2.1-9.9 overall, 1.6-7.4 Pac-12) South Division USC (8-4 overall, 6.9-2.1 Pac-12) UCLA (9.2-2.8 overall, 6.7-2.3 Pac-12) Arizona (5.8-6.2 overall, 4.3-4.7 Pac-12) Arizona State (5.3-6.7 overall, 4-5 Pac-12) Colorado (3.2-8.8 overall, 2.2-6.8 Pac-12) Utah (3.3-8.7 overall, 2.1-6.9 Pac-12) Southeastern Conference East Division Tennessee (9.5-2.5 overall, 6.2-1.8 SEC) Florida (9.2-2.8 overall, 6.1-1.9 SEC) Missouri (8.1-3.9 overall, 5.1-2.9 SEC) Georgia (7.5-4.5 overall, 4.4-3.6 SEC) Vanderbilt (6.6-5.4 overall, 3.6-4.4 SEC) South Carolina (4.7-7.3 overall, 2.7-5.3 SEC) Kentucky (2.1-9.9 overall, 0.2-7.8 SEC) West Division LSU (10.8-1.2 overall, 6.9-1.1 SEC) Auburn (9.5-2.5 overall, 6.1-1.9 SEC) Mississippi State (7.2-4.8 overall, 5-3 SEC) Alabama (7.4-4.6 overall, 4.2-3.8 SEC) Texas A&M (6.1-5.9 overall, 3-5 SEC) Arkansas (2.7-9.3 overall, 1.6-6.4 SEC) Ole Miss (3-9 overall, 0.9-7.1 SEC) Sun Belt Conference East Division Georgia Southern (6.3-5.7 overall, 4.9-3.1 Sun Belt) Georgia State (7.1-4.9 overall, 4.8-3.2 Sun Belt) Coastal Carolina (7.3-4.7 overall, 4.7-3.3 Sun Belt) Troy (4.7-7.3 overall, 3.2-4.8 Sun Belt) Appalachian State (3.7-8.3 overall, 1.9-6.1 Sun Belt) West Division South Alabama (6.8-5.2 overall, 5.2-2.8 Sun Belt) Louisiana-Monroe (7.1-4.9 overall, 5.1-2.9 Sun Belt) Louisiana-Lafayette (4.3-7.7 overall, 3.8-4.2 Sun Belt) Texas State (5-7 overall, 3.8-4.2 Sun Belt) Arkansas State (3-9 overall, 2.6-5.4 Sun Belt) FBS Independents BYU (8.2-3.8 overall) Notre Dame (6.2-5.8 overall) UMass (3.9-8.1 overall) New Mexico State (3.2-8.8 overall) Army (3.2-8.8 overall) Connecticut (3.2-8.8 overall) Liberty (1.3-10.7 overall) FCS Big Sky North Dakota State (8.9-3.1 overall) Eastern Washington (7.9-4.1 overall) South Dakota State (7.9-4.1 overall) Northern Iowa (7.4-4.6 overall) North Dakota (5.5-6.5 overall) Portland State (4-8 overall) UC Davis (3.7-8.3 overall) Montana (1.8-10.2 overall) FCS Eastern Harvard (8.4-3.6 overall) Delaware (7.5-4.5 overall) James Madison (6.6-5.4 overall) Youngstown State (5.8-6.2 overall) Illinois State (4.6-7.4 overall) New Hampshire (4.6-7.4 overall) Yale (4.2-7.8 overall) Florida A&M (3.4-8.6 overall) II. Bad-Case Scenario Note: Even though these are also ordered by conference record, do not read these as standings. Each team's prediction is its own universe. American Athletic Conference SMU (9.1-2.9 overall, 6.5-1.5 AAC) Navy (5.5-6.5 overall, 3.5-4.5 AAC) Temple (5.9-6.1 overall, 3.4-4.6 AAC) USF (5.1-6.9 overall, 2.9-5.1 AAC) East Carolina (4-8 overall, 2.5-5.5 AAC) Tulsa (2.9-9.1 overall, 1.9-6.1 AAC) UCF (3.1-8.9 overall, 1.7-6.3 AAC) Memphis (2.2-9.8 overall, 1.2-6.8 AAC) Cincinnati (3.3-8.7 overall, 1.1-6.9 AAC) Houston (1.1-10.9 overall, 0.4-7.6 AAC) Tulane (0.2-11.8 overall, 0.2-7.8 AAC) Atlantic Coast Conference Atlantic Division Clemson (8.4-3.6 overall, 5.8-2.2 ACC) Florida State (5.9-6.1 overall, 4.4-3.6 ACC) Boston College (5.4-6.6 overall, 3.1-4.9 ACC) NC State (1.9-10.1 overall, 1.5-6.5 ACC) Louisville (2.2-9.8 overall, 1.3-6.7 ACC) Syracuse (0.9-11.1 overall, 0.4-7.6 ACC) Wake Forest (0-12 overall, 0-8 ACC) Coastal Division Duke (6.6-5.4 overall, 4.2-3.8 ACC) Miami (FL) (5.6-6.4 overall, 3.8-4.2 ACC) Virginia (6-6 overall, 3.6-4.4 ACC) Pittsburgh (5.9-6.1 overall, 3.5-4.5 ACC) Virginia Tech (3.5-8.5 overall, 2.2-5.8 ACC) North Carolina (0.4-11.6 overall, 0.4-7.6 ACC) Georgia Tech (0.6-11.4 overall, 0.3-7.7 ACC) Big XII Conference TCU (5.5-6.5 overall, 4.9-4.1 Big XII) Oklahoma (6-6 overall, 4.5-4.5 Big XII) Oklahoma State (5.5-6.5 overall, 3.6-5.4 Big XII) Texas Tech (4-8 overall, 2.1-6.9 Big XII) Baylor (3.9-8.1 overall, 2.1-6.9 Big XII) West Virginia (3.9-8.1 overall, 2.1-6.9 Big XII) Texas (2.1-9.9 overall, 1.3-7.7 Big XII) Iowa State (1.5-10.5 overall, 0.9-8.1 Big XII) Kansas State (1.4-10.6 overall, 0.9-8.1 Big XII) Kansas (1.8-10.2 overall, 0.7-8.3 Big XII) Big Ten Conference East Division Michigan (5.5-6.5 overall, 4.1-4.9 Big Ten) Penn State (5.5-6.5 overall, 4-5 Big Ten) Maryland (3.4-8.6 overall, 2.8-6.2 Big Ten) Michigan State (3.9-8.1 overall, 2.8-6.2 Big Ten) Ohio State (3-9 overall, 2.5-6.5 Big Ten) Rutgers (0.9-11.1 overall, 0.7-8.3 Big Ten) Indiana (0.8-11.2 overall, 0.5-8.5 Big Ten) West Division Illinois (8.3-3.7 overall, 6-3 Big Ten) Purdue (6.8-5.2 overall, 4.4-4.6 Big Ten) Minnesota (4.9-7.1 overall, 2.9-6.1 Big Ten) Nebraska (3.1-8.9 overall, 2.3-6.7 Big Ten) Iowa (2-10 overall, 1.2-7.8 Big Ten) Wisconsin (1.7-10.3 overall, 0.6-8.4 Big Ten) Northwestern (1.3-10.7 overall, 0.4-8.6 Big Ten) Conference USA East Division Florida International (5.2-6.8 overall, 3.4-4.6 C-USA) Western Kentucky (3.7-8.3 overall, 3.1-4.9 C-USA) Charlotte (4.2-7.8 overall, 2.8-5.2 C-USA) Old Dominion (3.5-8.5 overall, 1.9-6.1 C-USA) Florida Atlantic (2.9-9.1 overall, 1.7-6.3 C-USA) Middle Tennessee (0.8-11.2 overall, 0.4-7.6 C-USA) Marshall (0.3-11.7 overall, 0.3-7.7 C-USA) West Division Rice (8.5-3.5 overall, 6.1-1.9 C-USA) North Texas (5.4-6.6 overall, 3.5-4.5 C-USA) UTSA (5.2-6.8 overall, 3.5-4.5 C-USA) Southern Miss (3.8-8.2 overall, 2.4-5.6 C-USA) UAB (3.1-8.9 overall, 2.2-5.8 C-USA) Louisiana Tech (0.6-11.4 overall, 0.5-7.5 C-USA) UTEP (0.4-11.6 overall, 0.3-7.7 C-USA) Mid-American Conference East Division Ohio (5-7 overall, 3.1-4.9 MAC) Akron (3.6-8.4 overall, 2.3-5.7 MAC) Buffalo (1.7-10.3 overall, 1.6-6.4 MAC) Bowling Green (2.1-9.9 overall, 1.2-6.8 MAC) Miami (OH) (0.8-11.2 overall, 0.8-7.2 MAC) Kent State (1.4-10.6 overall, 0.8-7.2 MAC) West Division Western Michigan (8.9-3.1 overall, 6-2 MAC) Central Michigan (6.8-5.2 overall, 4.7-3.3 MAC) Toledo (3.9-8.1 overall, 3.3-4.7 MAC) Ball State (3.3-8.7 overall, 2.2-5.8 MAC) Eastern Michigan (1.7-10.3 overall, 1.2-6.8 MAC) Northern Illinois (0.4-11.6 overall, 0.1-7.9 MAC) Mountain West Conference Mountain Division Air Force (3.8-8.2 overall, 2.8-5.2 MWC) Boise State (4.3-7.7 overall, 2.3-5.7 MWC) Colorado State (2.3-9.7 overall, 2-6 MWC) New Mexico (1.9-10.1 overall, 1.3-6.7 MWC) Utah State (2.3-9.7 overall, 1.2-6.8 MWC) Wyoming (1.2-10.8 overall, 0.4-7.6 MWC) West Division Hawaii (8.5-3.5 overall, 5.7-2.3 MWC) San Diego State (7.9-4.1 overall, 5.2-2.8 MWC) Fresno State (4-8 overall, 3.4-4.6 MWC) Nevada (4.4-7.6 overall, 3.1-4.9 MWC) San Jose State (1.3-10.7 overall, 0.9-7.1 MWC) UNLV (0.6-11.4 overall, 0.2-7.8 MWC) Pac-12 Conference North Division Oregon (6.3-5.7 overall, 5-4 Pac-12) Washington (5.4-6.6 overall, 3.9-5.1 Pac-12) California (4.2-7.8 overall, 2.8-6.2 Pac-12) Washington State (3.9-8.1 overall, 2.2-6.8 Pac-12) Stanford (1.3-10.7 overall, 0.9-8.1 Pac-12) Oregon State (0.4-11.6 overall, 0.3-8.7 Pac-12) South Division USC (5-7 overall, 4.6-4.4 Pac-12) UCLA (6.5-5.5 overall, 4.4-4.6 Pac-12) Arizona (2.6-9.4 overall, 1.9-7.1 Pac-12) Arizona State (2.4-9.6 overall, 1.9-7.1 Pac-12) Colorado (1-11 overall, 0.8-8.2 Pac-12) Utah (1-11 overall, 0.6-8.4 Pac-12) Southeastern Conference East Division Tennessee (6.9-5.1 overall, 4.4-3.6 SEC) Florida (6.5-5.5 overall, 4.2-3.8 SEC) Missouri (5.1-6.9 overall, 3-5 SEC) Georgia (4.6-7.4 overall, 2.4-5.6 SEC) Vanderbilt (3.8-8.2 overall, 1.7-6.3 SEC) South Carolina (2.1-9.9 overall, 1-7 SEC) Kentucky (0.8-11.2 overall, 0-8 SEC) West Division LSU (8.9-3.1 overall, 5.6-2.4 SEC) Auburn (6.6-5.4 overall, 4.1-3.9 SEC) Mississippi State (4.2-7.8 overall, 3-5 SEC) Alabama (4.3-7.7 overall, 2.1-5.9 SEC) Texas A&M (3.3-8.7 overall, 1.3-6.7 SEC) Arkansas (0.7-11.3 overall, 0.4-7.6 SEC) Ole Miss (1.5-10.5 overall, 0.1-7.9 SEC) Sun Belt Conference East Division Georgia Southern (3.6-8.4 overall, 2.8-5.2 Sun Belt) Georgia State (4.1-7.9 overall, 2.7-5.3 Sun Belt) Coastal Carolina (4.1-7.9 overall, 2.6-5.4 Sun Belt) Troy (1.6-10.4 overall, 1-7 Sun Belt) Appalachian State (0.8-11.2 overall, 0.2-7.8 Sun Belt) West Division South Alabama (3.8-8.2 overall, 3.1-4.9 Sun Belt) Louisiana-Monroe (4.3-7.7 overall, 3-5 Sun Belt) Louisiana-Lafayette (1.7-10.3 overall, 1.7-6.3 Sun Belt) Texas State (2.1-9.9 overall, 1.6-6.4 Sun Belt) Arkansas State (0.7-11.3 overall, 0.6-7.4 Sun Belt) FBS Independents BYU (5.1-6.9 overall) Notre Dame (3-9 overall) Connecticut (1.9-10.1 overall) UMass (1.5-10.5 overall) Army (1.2-10.8 overall) New Mexico State (0.8-11.2 overall) Liberty (0.2-11.8 overall) FCS Big Sky North Dakota State (5.8-6.2 overall) South Dakota State (4.7-7.3 overall) Eastern Washington (4.7-7.3 overall) Northern Iowa (4.2-7.8 overall) North Dakota (2.6-9.4 overall) Portland State (1.3-10.7 overall) UC Davis (1.2-10.8 overall) Montana (0.2-11.8 overall) FCS Eastern Harvard (5.2-6.8 overall) Delaware (4.6-7.4 overall) James Madison (3.7-8.3 overall) Youngstown State (2.6-9.4 overall) New Hampshire (1.7-10.3 overall) Illinois State (1.6-10.4 overall) Yale (1.4-10.6 overall) Florida A&M (0.7-11.3 overall) III. Good-Case Scenario Note: Same deal as the Bad-Case Scenario. Even though these are also ordered by conference record, do not read these as standings. Each team's prediction is its own universe. American Athletic Conference SMU (11.9-0.1 overall, 8-0 AAC) Temple (11-1 overall, 7.4-0.6 AAC) Navy (10.9-1.1 overall, 7.2-0.8 AAC) USF (10-2 overall, 6.6-1.4 AAC) East Carolina (9.7-2.3 overall, 6.5-1.5 AAC) Tulsa (8.3-3.7 overall, 5.6-2.4 AAC) UCF (8.8-3.2 overall, 5.4-2.6 AAC) Memphis (7.4-4.6 overall, 4.9-3.1 AAC) Cincinnati (8.7-3.3 overall, 4.9-3.1 AAC) Houston (5.6-6.4 overall, 3.3-4.7 AAC) Tulane (3.8-8.2 overall, 3.1-4.9 AAC) Atlantic Coast Conference Atlantic Division Clemson (11.8-0.2 overall, 7.9-0.1 ACC) Florida State (10.4-1.6 overall, 7.2-0.8 ACC) Boston College (10.4-1.6 overall, 6.7-1.3 ACC) NC State (7.2-4.8 overall, 4.8-3.2 ACC) Louisville (7.6-4.4 overall, 4.6-3.4 ACC) Syracuse (4.9-7.1 overall, 3-5 ACC) Wake Forest (2.5-9.5 overall, 1.6-6.4 ACC) Coastal Division Duke (11.1-0.9 overall, 7.3-0.7 ACC) Miami (FL) (10.7-1.3 overall, 7.3-0.7 ACC) Virginia (10.7-1.3 overall, 6.9-1.1 ACC) Pittsburgh (10.7-1.3 overall, 6.9-1.1 ACC) Virginia Tech (9.5-2.5 overall, 6.1-1.9 ACC) North Carolina (5.3-6.7 overall, 3.5-4.5 ACC) Georgia Tech (5.2-6.8 overall, 3.3-4.7 ACC) Big XII Conference TCU (11-1 overall, 8.7-0.3 Big XII) Oklahoma (11.4-0.6 overall, 8.5-0.5 Big XII) Oklahoma State (10.9-1.1 overall, 8.1-0.9 Big XII) Baylor (9.9-2.1 overall, 6.9-2.1 Big XII) West Virginia (9.5-2.5 overall, 6.8-2.2 Big XII) Texas Tech (9.7-2.3 overall, 6.8-2.2 Big XII) Texas (8.2-3.8 overall, 5.8-3.2 Big XII) Iowa State (7.5-4.5 overall, 5.3-3.7 Big XII) Kansas State (7.4-4.6 overall, 5.2-3.8 Big XII) Kansas (7.3-4.7 overall, 4.9-4.1 Big XII) Big Ten Conference East Division Michigan (10.6-1.4 overall, 8.1-0.9 Big Ten) Penn State (10.6-1.4 overall, 8-1 Big Ten) Michigan State (9.5-2.5 overall, 7.2-1.8 Big Ten) Maryland (9.4-2.6 overall, 7.2-1.8 Big Ten) Ohio State (9-3 overall, 7.1-1.9 Big Ten) Indiana (5.9-6.1 overall, 4.5-4.5 Big Ten) Rutgers (5.9-6.1 overall, 4.2-4.8 Big Ten) West Division Illinois (11.8-0.2 overall, 8.9-0.1 Big Ten) Purdue (11.4-0.6 overall, 8.4-0.6 Big Ten) Minnesota (10.3-1.7 overall, 7.3-1.7 Big Ten) Nebraska (9-3 overall, 6.7-2.3 Big Ten) Iowa (7.8-4.2 overall, 5.6-3.4 Big Ten) Wisconsin (6.7-5.3 overall, 4-5 Big Ten) Northwestern (6-6 overall, 3.6-5.4 Big Ten) Conference USA East Division Florida International (11-1 overall, 7.2-0.8 C-USA) Western Kentucky (9-3 overall, 7-1 C-USA) Charlotte (10.1-1.9 overall, 6.7-1.3 C-USA) Old Dominion (9.2-2.8 overall, 6-2 C-USA) Florida Atlantic (8.5-3.5 overall, 5.7-2.3 C-USA) Middle Tennessee (5.4-6.6 overall, 3.3-4.7 C-USA) Marshall (4.1-7.9 overall, 3.2-4.8 C-USA) West Division Rice (11.6-0.4 overall, 8-0 C-USA) UTSA (10.7-1.3 overall, 7.1-0.9 C-USA) North Texas (10.1-1.9 overall, 6.9-1.1 C-USA) Southern Miss (9.3-2.7 overall, 6.2-1.8 C-USA) UAB (8.9-3.1 overall, 6.1-1.9 C-USA) Louisiana Tech (4.5-7.5 overall, 3.3-4.7 C-USA) UTEP (5-7 overall, 3-5 C-USA) Mid-American Conference East Division Ohio (10.1-1.9 overall, 6.9-1.1 MAC) Akron (9-3 overall, 6.4-1.6 MAC) Buffalo (7.1-4.9 overall, 5.6-2.4 MAC) Kent State (7.3-4.7 overall, 4.8-3.2 MAC) Bowling Green (7.9-4.1 overall, 4.7-3.3 MAC) Miami (OH) (5.9-6.1 overall, 4.3-3.7 MAC) West Division Western Michigan (11.9-0.1 overall, 8-0 MAC) Central Michigan (11.3-0.7 overall, 7.6-0.4 MAC) Toledo (9.4-2.6 overall, 6.8-1.2 MAC) Ball State (9-3 overall, 6.1-1.9 MAC) Eastern Michigan (7-5 overall, 4.8-3.2 MAC) Northern Illinois (4.6-7.4 overall, 2.8-5.2 MAC) Mountain West Conference Mountain Division Air Force (9.3-2.7 overall, 6.6-1.4 MWC) Boise State (9.9-2.1 overall, 6.2-1.8 MWC) Colorado State (7.9-4.1 overall, 6-2 MWC) Utah State (8.2-3.8 overall, 5-3 MWC) New Mexico (7.6-4.4 overall, 5-3 MWC) Wyoming (6.6-5.4 overall, 3.7-4.3 MWC) West Division Hawaii (11.7-0.3 overall, 7.7-0.3 MWC) San Diego State (11.7-0.3 overall, 7.7-0.3 MWC) Nevada (10.1-1.9 overall, 6.7-1.3 MWC) Fresno State (9.1-2.9 overall, 6.7-1.3 MWC) San Jose State (5.5-6.5 overall, 3.8-4.2 MWC) UNLV (4.2-7.8 overall, 2.4-5.6 MWC) Pac-12 Conference North Division Oregon (10.9-1.1 overall, 8.6-0.4 Pac-12) Washington (10.8-1.2 overall, 8.2-0.8 Pac-12) California (9.7-2.3 overall, 7.2-1.8 Pac-12) Washington State (9.5-2.5 overall, 6.9-2.1 Pac-12) Stanford (7.1-4.9 overall, 5.1-3.9 Pac-12) Oregon State (4.9-7.1 overall, 3.8-5.2 Pac-12) South Division USC (10.3-1.7 overall, 8.5-0.5 Pac-12) UCLA (11.1-0.9 overall, 8.3-0.7 Pac-12) Arizona (8.9-3.1 overall, 6.6-2.4 Pac-12) Arizona State (8.5-3.5 overall, 6.4-2.6 Pac-12) Colorado (6.4-5.6 overall, 4.6-4.4 Pac-12) Utah (6.4-5.6 overall, 4.5-4.5 Pac-12) Southeastern Conference East Division Tennessee (11.4-0.6 overall, 7.5-0.5 SEC) Florida (11.4-0.6 overall, 7.5-0.5 SEC) Missouri (10.5-1.5 overall, 6.9-1.1 SEC) Georgia (9.8-2.2 overall, 6.2-1.8 SEC) Vanderbilt (9.2-2.8 overall, 5.4-2.6 SEC) South Carolina (7.6-4.4 overall, 4.7-3.3 SEC) Kentucky (4.4-7.6 overall, 1.4-6.6 SEC) West Division LSU (11.8-0.2 overall, 7.8-0.2 SEC) Auburn (11.4-0.6 overall, 7.5-0.5 SEC) Mississippi State (9.7-2.3 overall, 6.5-1.5 SEC) Alabama (9.7-2.3 overall, 5.9-2.1 SEC) Texas A&M (8.9-3.1 overall, 5.1-2.9 SEC) Arkansas (5.7-6.3 overall, 3.5-4.5 SEC) Ole Miss (5.4-6.6 overall, 2.4-5.6 SEC) Sun Belt Conference East Division Georgia Southern (9.3-2.7 overall, 6.9-1.1 Sun Belt) Coastal Carolina (10.1-1.9 overall, 6.8-1.2 Sun Belt) Georgia State (9.8-2.2 overall, 6.8-1.2 Sun Belt) Troy (7.6-4.4 overall, 5.3-2.7 Sun Belt) Appalachian State (6.8-5.2 overall, 4-4 Sun Belt) West Division South Alabama (9.9-2.1 overall, 7.2-0.8 Sun Belt) Louisiana-Monroe (9.9-2.1 overall, 7.1-0.9 Sun Belt) Louisiana-Lafayette (7.5-4.5 overall, 5.9-2.1 Sun Belt) Texas State (8.2-3.8 overall, 5.9-2.1 Sun Belt) Arkansas State (5.8-6.2 overall, 4.7-3.3 Sun Belt) FBS Independents BYU (10.9-1.1 overall) Notre Dame (9-3 overall) UMass (7-5 overall) Army (6.2-5.8 overall) New Mexico State (6-6 overall) Connecticut (5.8-6.2 overall) Liberty (3.8-8.2 overall) FCS Big Sky North Dakota State (11.2-0.8 overall) Eastern Washington (10.6-1.4 overall) South Dakota State (10.8-1.2 overall) Northern Iowa (10.3-1.7 overall) North Dakota (8.4-3.6 overall) Portland State (7.2-4.8 overall) UC Davis (6.7-5.3 overall) Montana (4.8-7.2 overall) FCS Eastern Harvard (11-1 overall) Delaware (10.1-1.9 overall) James Madison (9.6-2.4 overall) Youngstown State (9-3 overall) Illinois State (7.5-4.5 overall) New Hampshire (7.5-4.5 overall) Yale (7.1-4.9 overall) Florida A&M (6.6-5.4 overall)

Illinois: 170 (-5) Northwestern: 100 (+5)

Boston College: 115 (-5) Syracuse: 90 Pittsburgh: 55 (+5)

Just like seasoning can (and must) be used to accentuate the flavor of the meat, so can sauce. It's an arbitrary line to draw.

One is great, and the other is really great. Eastern uses the whole hog and a primarily vinegar-based sauce, whereas Lexington focuses on pork shoulder and the sauce--while still vinegar-y-- has more tomato to it.

Boston College: 115 Syracuse: 110 (-5) Pittsburgh: 35 (+5)

Illinois: 120 (+5) Northwestern: 150 (-5)

Illinois: 100 (+5) Northwestern: 170 (-5)

Boston College: 115 (-5) Syracuse: 115 Pittsburgh: 30 (+5)

Illinois: 80 (+5) Northwestern: 190 (-5)

Boston College: 115 (-5) Syracuse: 120 Pittsburgh: 25 (+5)