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smokingcricket

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smokingcricket last won the day on October 3

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About smokingcricket

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    Los Angeles Rams of St. Louis

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  1. Recruiting v1.4b Anonymous Survey

    I'm surprised at the discrepancy between the Visit Options for the 2 Win teams. I figured those would be closer, given how powerful the Coaches Visits are. I'm not surprised that most people have plopped for the 3 points a week though. The 5 win choices seem to fall about where I thought they would. The JuCo 8 win thing seems to be a reaction to a number of teams not getting a preferred JuCo. Otherwise, Home State is good for those in good states, while Regional Power is good for those who aren't. I'm absolutely shocked that Legacy Locks isn't closer to Rising Star than it is. Even if I had to take the OG and Blitz ATH for my state, which isn't the best haul, I think I still go for it to clean up two positions, then get my star, and then start farming out for the rest of the positions.
  2. [Survey] Alumni Network

    Appalachian State University - 2011 The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - 2013
  3. I think that over the years, we've tried to balance a lot of things with recruiting and make something that is both realistic and usable for the players. I'm going to use BC as an example here, mostly because that's my team. My sim border states are CT, NH, VT, NY. Here's the IRL Spring Football Roster for BC. In two of my four border states designated by the sim, there is exactly 1 player on the irl team. In the other two, there's 9. My home state provides me the greatest number of players (which makes sense), but the number of generated recruits in the current model won't allow me to replicate this within a few years. The Pipeline and Camp states address the issue to an extent, as well as the Star Recruits. I figured I needed an immediately ready to play DT for this upcoming class as my biggest need, and I found a bunch of studs in Louisiana so I picked one. Georgia had the best ratio of recruits to local schools in my favor, so they were Camped. I wound up doing most of my recruiting in Mass and Georgia, and until the last week was mostly focused on the one out-of-state place where I could get a bonus. Connecticut and New York didn't really have too many appealing recruits to try and poach, and both New Hampshire and Vermont were barren of anything total. Towards the end of the cycle I was able to pick up players from a wide range of states, but none above a 3.0. Stars aside, Mass and Georgia were really the only places I could compete for pro level recruits. It's a stark contrast from last year, where the old model for recruit generation was still in place and I had the whole state to myself (which meant some pretty easy pickings). But there are other factors at play here. As a gander, take a look at IRL Mizzou. When they were in the BXII, they heavily relied on recruits from Texas. They always had to recruit somewhat nationally, even though they have a whole large state with two metropolitan areas mostly to themselves, but Texas was a major factor in their recruiting. Now in the SEC, they've gone less into Texas and more into Georgia and Florida. That makes a lot of sense, given their new conference mates and center of recruiting gravity. For a sim comparison, Mizzou camping Texas and pipelining either TX or MO makes total sense from their BXII days, but what about their current situation? It's hard to say how they should approach that if realism is the desired effect, given their more national recruiting dynamics right now. Here's another example: irl Rutgers. Rutgers in frankly an irl embarrassment for how much talent comes out of NJ that they should keep, but let's ignore that. When Rutgers was last good in football, there were articles detailing their recruiting successes in the Miami-Dade region (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/sports/ncaafootball/14rutgers.html). They took advantage of the U being down to go in and poach quite a few players, even as their own state was heavily raided. But here, there's an easy way to replicate that recruiting strategy in the sim - Camp Florida, and maybe Pipeline it (or NJ). The catch? Under current sim construction, Rutgers can't do this, because the B1G doesn't have schools in Florida and thus Rutgers can't camp there. School prestige matters too. My alma maters (UNC and App State) both used to have broadly similar recruiting patterns. Both recruited heavily from NC down to SC, GA,and FL. That was where the talent was, and where they went. Except App usually stopped there, whereas UNC also went north into VA and NJ. Recruiting points models this well I think, but even within regions different schools have different abilities to travel and scout. I have to pause here and be 100% that this isn't a complaint about the current system, and I understand that it's probably impossible to model every possible dynamic that exists in real life. Recruiting has come a long way, a lot of work has been put into it, and it does allow for some things to be different. IRL, BC is not a 5.0 prestige school and yet in this sim they are (which is super for me). But I do want to use this as a way to talk about and discuss some of the challenges behind recruiting, and share some data points that might help whatever decisions happen.
  4. [2020] Week #14 - FNF

  5. [2021] Compensatory Picks

    Giving yourself the chance to pick Mr. Irrelevant -- I see through your schemes and trickery alien. Can't bamboozle and hide the wool over our eyes.
  6. [2020] ACC League Leaders: Post Week 12

    Believe me, if Wing-T was a thing in CFBHC we'd be running it with this team -- and that'd make those numbers go even higher.
  7. In terms of trades I've been a part of at the organizational level, the Andrew Fazande for a pair of Chicago picks is probably the front runner. The Taylor swap was probably a net positive for both teams, but neither really capitalized on it. Chicago has struggled, but I don't think any of that is really Fazande's fault. He's been a top player for them (joint most sacks since the trade, towards the top for games appeared in stats) and got a boost from changing scenery. In some respects, I think its a similar case to how Derek Harrison worked out in Jacksonville during that trade. Meanwhile, for the Rams the greater point isn't simply the players drafted in those slots (OG Kevin Levy and QB Kevin Marshall), but the players drafted around them in the same rounds. I don't know if the Rams get Daniel Watkins (starting MLB, key contributor) in 2019 because of the desire to refresh the offensive line, and the bevy of fifth rounders in 2020 was lead by Marshall -- our primary Day Three draft target.
  8. [2020] Divisional Sunday - 1 PM

    Live look at Nick Hall's car right now...
  9. Whoops. I looked at some charts, saw H*ll, assumed Nick, and just typed it down. Is Wegert a Top 10 QB? Honestly I'd rather have Wegert than the QB situations in over half the league right now, but even if Wegert is a Top 10 QB (he probably is) he's not in the Top 5. He's not in that upper pantheon of QBs the same way that Skaggs, Brown, and Murphy are. I think my point more is that we've had more Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and 2016 Peyton Manning type QBs win than we have elite types. What's interesting I find is that many winning teams did so with the run game being the main facet of the offense, and most winning teams have had an elite or very good RB. The sim is still embracing those sort of "traditional values" of a stud RB more than what you see in an increasingly pass-happy outside world NFL. Some of that may be the maturity of the sim not being fully embraced yet, but I do think that we'll see some changes to reflect the real world model really start to take effect around the next two seasons as all of the teams are fleshed out and we start to see some old players turn over.
  10. Draft Regrets

    Even numbered years seem to be where I have any regrets in the draft, and most of them are usually minor in scope. 2016 - The Jacksonville OL was beyond abysmal in 2015, so Tabor and I (and panther, who had become GM) set out on fixing that. We would up taking three interior OL with our first three picks. While Roaf became a bona fide star, Ena was okay and Young was not so good. I sort of wish now that we had passed on Young and taken Sid Henson instead, and then with the Ena pick selected an offensive skill player. The team may have competed a lot better in the future, but if this is my biggest draft regret then I really don't feel too bad. 2018 - I took over as GM in Jacksonville and with my two fifth round selections chose a backup C and OLB. Brett Wilson might have been an okay one, but I really do wonder what would have become of DeSean Jenkins had I drafted him like I wanted to. He was super electric in college and was a seeming clone of Allan Taylor. I had long coveted a backup QB as injury insurance to AT with the terribad options we previously had, and Jenkins seemed like a decent option there. What's more noticeable now is that with Jacksonville going to a Trick Plays style offense, Jenkins could have been a massive cog in that machine. We ended up with Byron Harper in the 6th, and while I was content with getting him I will forever wonder what would have been. 2020 - Way too early to tell on this one, but I really wanted Kenji Sagatomo in the fifth round, as he was right around the range for a backup OLB that we needed. We had a higher Day 3 priority in the Rams offices on Kevin Marshall, and I was not confident that he would last from 142-150. So we drafted our man Marshall, who I am extremely excited to see in action next season, but missing out on Sagatomo to a division rival is one that might hurt a bit in the long run.
  11. [2020] Week #11 - TNF

    WOOOO REVENGE
  12. Let's take a look at the Super Bowl winning QBs of the sim... B. Vardell B. Brown J. Fields B. Brown (x2) K. Davis T. Lester ????? If we were ranking QBs in the pantheon of greatness, Brown is the only one who is sure-fire in the Top 5. Vardell is possibly in the conversation somewhere, but none of the others are. Fields and Davis are even sort of middling relative to their peers. If you look at the Super Bowl Losers it sort of hammers home the point further. Other than Oakland and St. Louis in 2014 and 2015, none of the other SB Losers are in the conversation for best at their position and indeed most are also sort of average. Now, it could be argued that other factors played into the success of these QBs. But regardless of all that, I think the point is this -- this sim is not (quite) at the point where having an elite QB is the thing that takes a team to the top. I think that day is coming, probably in about two seasons, but for now I don't think so. Therefore, I think you do trade down if you are Green Bay. I don't think Green Bay got enough out of the deal as alien and storm have said above. If you trade down, you absolutely have to get more for the haul to construct the roster than what the Packers got. There's also another option that I'll throw out there because I am a massive homer -- 2013 Heisman Winner Allan Taylor (who went #3 overall). Granted... his Heisman may have come under a sort of dubious decision, but I'm 100% convinced that if he had played for a better constructed team (which I am in part to blame for towards the latter stages of that) for any part of his first four or so years, he'd have made a Super Bowl. I don't know if he'd go #1, but if I were trading down and picking a QB then that's my guy. That said, it is noticeable that our only repeat SB winner took an LT first in 2014, and then got a QB in 2015, so maybe...
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