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Found 3 results

  1. After CCG's, the season is over and below are the ELO rankings and strength of schedules. A little point of pride is that these rankings went 9/10 (with Rice) in predicting conference championships. Also interesting is that Purdue is the lowest rated number 1 team since 2013 via this model (every other year was between 1230 and 1260). Maybe this will eventually be good enough to get me a vote in the official poll but until then, enjoy. Also forthcoming will be bowl predictions, although it should be pretty easy, if you're ranked higher you should win. Team ELO Rating ELO Rank Record SOS Rating SOS Rank Purdue 1208.483178 1 12,1 1033.264 29 Auburn 1194.77978 2 11,2 1038.1832 20 TCU 1194.465602 3 12,1 1030.8703 34 Missouri 1192.82051 4 12,1 1045.1264 9 Arizona 1171.869164 5 10,2 1020.7845 52 Air Force 1169.06492 6 12,1 1000.7049 75 Utah 1153.761056 7 11,2 1030.56 36 Nevada 1147.07593 8 10,2 966.71815 107 Oklahoma State 1146.703251 9 10,3 1026.8709 41 Duke 1144.461186 10 11,2 1028.4428 38 Michigan 1142.732189 11 11,2 1027.2081 40 Ohio State 1135.046315 12 10,2 1032.843 31 Navy 1133.044664 13 10,3 1004.5328 71 SMU 1127.995464 14 10,2 996.47704 80 Rice 1123.778788 15 12,1 939.82153 124 Toledo 1115.580088 16 9,3 1000.5986 76 Georgia 1112.300939 17 9,3 1039.6019 16 Western Michigan 1107.517859 18 11,2 1007.8983 66 Illinois 1107.086203 19 9,3 1005.0652 68 Florida 1104.361956 20 9,3 1038.1485 21 Hawaii 1103.574367 21 10,3 1013.6421 60 LSU 1101.685718 22 8,4 1043.5765 11 Boston College 1100.484782 23 10,3 1004.5437 69 Oregon 1097.995031 24 10,3 1015.0293 58 Alabama 1094.335645 25 7,5 1048.4902 7 UCLA 1094.137365 26 8,4 1020.2701 54 Tennessee 1087.847893 27 7,5 1072.7885 1 South Carolina 1087.552453 28 8,4 1032.6248 32 Louisville 1085.073462 29 9,3 993.73062 83 Kansas 1082.034139 30 9,3 1013.919 59 Texas A&M 1079.793652 31 8,4 1025.0675 44 Arizona State 1077.917194 32 7,5 1036.389 24 Notre Dame 1072.866371 33 7,5 1040.0132 13 Southern Miss 1069.741131 34 8,4 929.30616 127 Clemson 1063.559291 35 7,5 1047.4987 8 Temple 1062.035652 36 9,4 1002.0534 73 Virginia Tech 1059.452841 37 8,4 1037.3642 23 Wisconsin 1057.218893 38 7,5 1039.0935 18 San Diego State 1056.709778 39 8,4 976.75515 100 Akron 1056.313644 40 8,5 998.93863 79 Penn State 1050.918162 41 7,5 1025.3811 43 Colorado State 1049.253605 42 7,5 984.54793 91 Ohio 1043.868078 43 7,5 987.1688 88 Nebraska 1043.065839 44 6,6 1039.2878 17 Michigan State 1041.736643 45 5,7 1067.9151 2 BYU 1041.451244 46 8,4 913.10448 132 Georgia Tech 1040.876168 47 6,6 1034.4067 27 Baylor 1040.374436 48 7,5 1022.1457 47 USC 1037.134537 49 6,6 1066.7318 3 Mississippi State 1036.705767 50 7,5 1033.5435 28 Wyoming 1034.363331 51 6,6 990.17024 84 Washington 1032.505903 52 7,5 1025.8354 42 Central Michigan 1030.598487 53 7,5 967.21196 106 Eastern Michigan 1029.391122 54 7,5 1007.8272 67 Memphis 1029.330121 55 7,5 949.12553 117 Texas Tech 1024.246523 56 7,5 1028.0416 39 Oklahoma 1020.695384 57 7,5 1022.3335 46 Miami (FL) 1020.594131 58 6,6 1012.8461 61 Boise State 1019.466066 59 6,6 1019.2221 55 East Carolina 1011.797383 60 7,5 961.0127 109 North Dakota State 1011.635517 61 2,2 984.20411 92 Maryland 1009.147821 62 6,6 1043.6887 10 Pittsburgh 1007.563026 63 6,6 988.63542 86 UCF 1006.442817 64 7,5 1009.9172 64 Kentucky 1004.186644 65 5,7 1043.0275 12 Virginia 1002.402174 66 6,6 1003.0172 72 Texas 1002.262277 67 6,6 1009.996 63 UL-Lafayette 1002.219259 68 9,4 944.96562 121 Northwestern 1001.921116 69 6,6 1037.8322 22 Wake Forest 1001.445252 70 6,6 999.51602 77 Indiana 1001.369617 71 6,6 1023.0297 45 Oregon State 998.2796358 72 7,5 985.29618 90 Rutgers 996.0883114 73 5,7 1030.8443 35 Bowling Green 988.7858541 74 7,5 953.73503 112 Miami (OH) 986.2059901 75 6,6 976.85079 99 Georgia State 985.9783416 76 6,7 938.27173 125 Louisiana Tech 985.0914883 77 7,5 983.85771 93 Florida International 982.5633002 78 6,6 968.75135 105 Fresno State 981.4858722 79 4,8 1004.5353 70 Minnesota 977.315339 80 4,8 1053.1551 5 Washington State 976.2940328 81 5,7 1022.1046 48 Western Kentucky 974.8042367 82 7,6 960.81286 110 UAB 974.4259535 83 6,6 986.13519 89 Buffalo 972.3035919 84 4,8 973.78549 102 Colorado 963.3681078 85 5,7 1020.9674 51 Army 963.3403295 86 4,8 1015.8051 57 Houston 961.3624084 87 5,7 1021.27 50 Florida Atlantic 957.6854778 88 5,7 951.04497 116 Ball State 952.0833514 89 5,7 1039.7923 14 Florida State 951.4094785 90 4,8 1034.9292 26 Arkansas State 951.3142565 91 5,7 923.71363 129 South Alabama 949.5429956 92 6,6 935.31929 126 Syracuse 947.3989978 93 5,7 994.66429 82 Marshall 947.0018248 94 6,6 943.12143 122 UL-Monroe 946.338819 95 6,6 922.83529 130 Iowa 942.0234829 96 3,9 1051.5419 6 USF 941.0019029 97 5,7 929.04539 128 Arkansas 938.5259112 98 3,9 1053.4754 4 UTEP 937.8382302 99 4,8 975.47976 101 Utah State 935.4228318 100 5,7 982.9874 94 California 934.529453 101 2,10 1032.0445 33 Iowa State 930.4908673 102 3,9 1036.3018 25 Texas State 927.7029468 103 6,6 948.06098 119 Ole Miss 924.9584365 104 2,10 1039.7106 15 UTSA 917.1303046 105 4,8 999.00308 78 Troy 912.5532397 106 4,8 945.37306 120 NC State 912.2133753 107 3,9 989.48048 85 Kansas State 911.5133445 108 3,9 1016.1708 56 Eastern Washington 905.9324859 109 1,3 952.46721 114 Cincinnati 904.9982291 110 4,8 976.96288 98 Appalachian State 903.1663851 111 5,7 922.26959 131 Tulsa 899.3034358 112 3,9 1008.0055 65 Connecticut 891.3696972 113 2,10 952.94215 113 Vanderbilt 889.3187409 114 3,9 1021.9603 49 Stanford 888.0553576 115 1,11 1038.6746 19 Northern Illinois 886.9583786 116 3,9 995.89468 81 Old Dominion 886.8621591 117 4,8 956.09387 111 New Mexico 878.9903605 118 4,8 980.00618 97 North Texas 872.5283316 119 2,10 965.88128 108 West Virginia 869.6229025 120 2,10 1033.0064 30 Middle Tennessee 867.1642785 121 3,9 941.12927 123 Coastal Carolina 859.1212213 122 2,10 948.45856 118 Tulane 848.0677384 123 1,11 987.9639 87 Kent State 845.9056524 124 1,11 1029.4841 37 North Carolina 830.7519836 125 1,11 1020.6284 53 New Mexico State 816.3433606 126 1,11 952.17427 115 San Jose State 816.3385961 127 1,11 1000.7581 74 UMass 802.5255322 128 1,11 982.21151 96 Georgia Southern 785.3457116 129 0,12 971.7214 104 Charlotte 772.4748193 130 0,12 972.81886 103 UNLV 750.307392 131 0,12 1011.7909 62 Liberty 739.9481366 132 0,12 982.26109 95
  2. I spent a little bit of time learning VBA, reading up on ranking methodologies, and put this together. The idea is that comparing two teams rankings gives you the expected winning percentage: EXP = 1/(1+10diff/400). For example, a 200 point difference corresponds to the higher rank team having a 76% win expectancy. Basically, if you beat a team by more than expected then your rating goes up. Below is the full table including strength of schedule (average elo of opponents). Overall, throughout the season the higher ranked team won 81% of the time (or 90% if you only include games where there was > 55% winning chance). For better viewing: here is a google sheet link which contains these rankings for every year 2013-2021 including a "continued" version where end-of-season rankings are used to start the next year (regressed 25% of the way back to 1000). Any feedback or comments is very welcome! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf5D2ZRwl6FDgeyYP0CQgycUWcImioCMs4kwyjpkap0/edit?usp=sharing Team ELO Rating ELO Rank Record SOS Rating SOS Rank Auburn 1202.32914 1 11,1 1025.4074 37 Purdue 1188.318092 2 11,1 1023.8173 40 Missouri 1184.901336 3 11,1 1031.7107 32 TCU 1178.993785 4 11,1 1022.4051 42 Arizona 1171.598624 5 10,2 1020.3534 51 Michigan 1162.727399 6 11,1 1012.566 58 Oklahoma State 1161.872144 7 10,2 1011.6864 60 Air Force 1156.656684 8 11,1 990.43077 81 Utah 1149.891993 9 10,2 1025.174 39 Nevada 1147.055304 10 10,2 966.73134 106 Ohio State 1135.148526 11 10,2 1032.9579 27 Duke 1134.716708 12 10,2 1021.016 48 SMU 1127.768884 13 10,2 995.9871 77 Rice 1126.377148 14 11,1 936.91553 124 Toledo 1115.643749 15 9,3 1000.6124 72 Hawaii 1115.23373 16 10,2 1001.7704 71 Navy 1114.753899 17 9,3 999.8614 74 Georgia 1112.178874 18 9,3 1039.3804 12 Boston College 1109.754753 19 10,2 993.12183 80 Illinois 1106.386692 20 9,3 1003.5831 67 Florida 1104.725668 21 9,3 1038.914 15 Oregon 1101.735526 22 10,2 1003.1776 68 LSU 1101.42394 23 8,4 1042.8222 11 Western Michigan 1097.245353 24 10,2 1003.7217 66 Alabama 1095.044127 25 7,5 1049.8519 7 UCLA 1094.114317 26 8,4 1020.0097 52 Tennessee 1087.33161 27 7,5 1071.5829 1 South Carolina 1087.222338 28 8,4 1031.7978 31 Louisville 1085.480883 29 9,3 994.64845 79 Kansas 1081.801014 30 9,3 1013.2414 57 Texas A&M 1080.038128 31 8,4 1025.9546 36 Temple 1079.485875 32 9,3 990.06652 84 Arizona State 1077.849196 33 7,5 1036.2921 22 Notre Dame 1071.758405 34 7,5 1037.5105 21 Southern Miss 1069.739361 35 8,4 929.52309 128 Akron 1066.455066 36 8,4 990.14973 83 Clemson 1063.768063 37 7,5 1048.1502 8 Virginia Tech 1059.916899 38 8,4 1038.4954 18 Wisconsin 1057.284411 39 7,5 1039.1321 14 San Diego State 1056.593193 40 8,4 976.49995 100 Penn State 1052.431017 41 7,5 1028.6341 34 Colorado State 1049.211933 42 7,5 984.42536 91 Ohio 1044.743629 43 7,5 988.90686 87 Nebraska 1043.022968 44 6,6 1039.1612 13 Michigan State 1041.652392 45 5,7 1067.6645 2 BYU 1041.204851 46 8,4 912.68381 132 Baylor 1040.351348 47 7,5 1022.026 46 Georgia Tech 1040.277181 48 6,6 1033.0008 26 Mississippi State 1037.31612 49 7,5 1034.9085 25 USC 1037.146238 50 6,6 1066.6469 3 Wyoming 1034.087634 51 6,6 989.49017 85 Washington 1032.269693 52 7,5 1025.2501 38 Central Michigan 1030.181894 53 7,5 966.40559 108 Eastern Michigan 1029.234093 54 7,5 1007.5005 64 Memphis 1028.717039 55 7,5 947.77456 118 Texas Tech 1024.284611 56 7,5 1027.944 35 Miami (FL) 1021.000995 57 6,6 1013.6437 55 Oklahoma 1020.742269 58 7,5 1022.3689 43 Boise State 1019.043374 59 6,6 1018.2275 53 East Carolina 1012.123601 60 7,5 961.74287 109 North Dakota State 1011.633834 61 2,2 984.05393 92 Maryland 1010.324252 62 6,6 1046.3101 9 Pittsburgh 1007.972253 63 6,6 989.44222 86 UCF 1006.520727 64 7,5 1010.005 61 Kentucky 1004.223116 65 5,7 1043.0407 10 Texas 1002.323247 66 6,6 1010 62 Virginia 1002.052539 67 6,6 1002.1377 69 Northwestern 1001.935962 68 6,6 1037.749 20 Wake Forest 1001.785067 69 6,6 1000.1938 73 Indiana 1001.479537 70 6,6 1023.2303 41 Oregon State 998.2875964 71 7,5 985.31651 90 Rutgers 996.8626721 72 5,7 1032.7368 28 UL-Lafayette 994.5878254 73 8,4 942.01477 122 Georgia State 993.5532684 74 6,6 932.36532 126 Bowling Green 989.1927446 75 7,5 954.63318 111 Miami (OH) 986.1565152 76 6,6 976.67297 99 Louisiana Tech 984.2143059 77 7,5 981.62419 96 Florida International 983.093387 78 6,6 970.04171 105 Fresno State 982.541266 79 4,8 1006.9521 65 Minnesota 976.5450805 80 4,8 1050.8467 5 Washington State 976.4165938 81 5,7 1022.3067 44 UAB 975.227284 82 6,6 988.53856 88 Buffalo 972.3116479 83 4,8 973.84331 102 Western Kentucky 972.3111216 84 7,5 947.27631 119 Colorado 963.224721 85 5,7 1020.6054 50 Army 962.3296339 86 4,8 1013.274 56 Houston 961.8305534 87 5,7 1022.2581 45 Florida Atlantic 957.7010501 88 5,7 950.86494 115 Florida State 951.5052227 89 4,8 1034.9263 24 Ball State 951.382629 90 5,7 1038.1447 19 Arkansas State 951.2585753 91 5,7 923.64852 129 South Alabama 949.3031057 92 6,6 934.71964 125 Syracuse 947.9893332 93 5,7 996.23421 76 Marshall 947.0173314 94 6,6 942.99684 121 UL-Monroe 946.3286978 95 6,6 922.83167 130 Iowa 941.7307694 96 3,9 1050.6316 6 USF 941.6505096 97 5,7 930.58995 127 Arkansas 938.1915117 98 3,9 1052.9673 4 UTEP 937.6916842 99 4,8 975.19688 101 Utah State 935.4219772 100 5,7 982.87132 94 California 934.5673658 101 2,10 1032.0262 30 Iowa State 930.2055515 102 3,9 1035.4566 23 Texas State 927.7411956 103 6,6 948.08748 117 Ole Miss 924.6487841 104 2,10 1038.6837 16 UTSA 917.1663913 105 4,8 999.23435 75 NC State 912.5558529 106 3,9 990.37568 82 Troy 912.5242691 107 4,8 945.36712 120 Kansas State 911.912505 108 3,9 1017.0251 54 Eastern Washington 905.9388604 109 1,3 952.5089 113 Cincinnati 905.0384797 110 4,8 977.05289 98 Appalachian State 903.1528639 111 5,7 922.30315 131 Tulsa 899.2766836 112 3,9 1007.8222 63 Connecticut 891.9335349 113 2,10 954.50587 112 Vanderbilt 889.0819351 114 3,9 1021.2116 47 Stanford 888.074958 115 1,11 1038.6171 17 Old Dominion 886.8775975 116 4,8 956.12883 110 Northern Illinois 886.5899817 117 3,9 994.98896 78 New Mexico 878.6229381 118 4,8 978.92809 97 North Texas 872.7879397 119 2,10 966.674 107 West Virginia 869.4663759 120 2,10 1032.251 29 Middle Tennessee 867.2349794 121 3,9 940.9853 123 Coastal Carolina 859.1816001 122 2,10 948.54442 116 Tulane 847.5711566 123 1,11 986.74428 89 Kent State 846.0306779 124 1,11 1029.7196 33 North Carolina 830.942644 125 1,11 1020.7747 49 San Jose State 816.6544289 126 1,11 1001.7975 70 New Mexico State 816.3238287 127 1,11 952.1191 114 UMass 802.5545193 128 1,11 982.42944 95 Georgia Southern 785.5786374 129 0,12 972.32931 104 Charlotte 772.5241743 130 0,12 972.77014 103 UNLV 750.3876262 131 0,12 1011.9776 59 Liberty 740.3787961 132 0,12 983.6903 93
  3. We here at Roman News have started evaluating the high school talent around the nation. Please note that we have not yet had a chance to evaluate all positions, so we're going to constantly update our lists over the weeks. Methodology: 1. Recruits are rated against the average recruit of this recruiting class, at their position. The average recruit gets 2.5 stars. 2. Our analysts value current skill over potential, but not by a significant margin. We do this because skill is current, but potential is hypothetical. Our results may favor a more game-ready player with above average potential over a scout team player with the best potential in the world. Note: Top recruit list will be updated when all recruits have been scouted. The recruits will be compared to the national standard. Their star system will still be based on how they ranked against their position. Top 5 Recruits 1. Darius "Stinger" Jones - FS - 6 foot 1, 205 pounds - Kealakekua, Hawaii "The best player on our board this recruiting class hails from the Aloha State! From a very small town, less than 2,000 people, Jones is an absolute stud on the defensive side. For teams looking for a ball hawk in the secondary, look no farther. Darius is the most field ready defensive back out there and has become known for his ability to swat down anything that comes near him. Hence sharing his nickname with the infamous "Stinger Missiles". 2. Anthony "Big Papi" Ortiz - DE - 6 foot 7, 262 pounds - Rocky Ford, Colorado "Nicknamed after the popular baseball player with the same last name, 'Big Papi' Ortiz is a mountain of a man. His 6 foot 7 frame gives him great reach and leverage. He's an absolute force on the end and can disrupt any attempts to run to the outside. His weakness--and calling it that is generous to the other players in the class--is he's not as good rushing the passer as he could be. But don't let that deter you from his big hoss. Anyone looking for a strong outside presence should be interested. He may be NFL ready as is." 3. A.J. "Touchdown Jesus" Jefferson - QB - 6 foot 3, 194 pounds - Lilburn, Georgia "It's a bit ironic that the bible belt would produce a player with the nickname of 'Jesus', but here we are. Jefferson is the prototypical pocket passer. He's got just enough mobility to keep a play going, but he's got the arm, accuracy, and pocket presence to make scrambling a moot idea. He's a very intellectual player, making very few mistakes in high school. With a good line and even average receiving corps, Jefferson might have the most impact on a team of any player in this class. He's good enough to start in more than HALF of the teams, right now." 4. Phillip "Feed Me" Moore - ILB - 5 foot 11, 216 pounds - Albuquerque, New Mexico "The New Mexico native is the best inside linebacker in the class. He's got very quick feet, a great vertical jump, and plays the ball like a defensive back. Combined with his hard nosed style and a beautiful tackling form, Moore will stop any passes over the middle and hold his own against the run. The one knock on Moore is he's just not as disciplined as he should be while playing zone and, unfortunately for him, just not a top notch run defender. Don't let that deter you, however. There might not be a better Nickel or Dime linebacker for a while." 5. Brian "Osito" Hernandez - OLB - 6 foot 3, 217 pounds - Sparta, New Jersey "You know the joke where very large men are nicknamed tiny? Well, that's the same idea behind calling Hernandez "Bear Cub". This large framed recruit does his home town proud. With the toughness of a Spartan, the "Bear Cub" is the single most talented, standing player against the run. If Moore is the head side of a coin, Hernandez is tails. He has the speed to disrupt the read option and chase down tosses or screens. Hernandez has amazing upper body strength and can push aside a fullback or tight end trying to block. If you're going to keep him in for a passing down, however, you'll want to run a Zone and move him into the flats. Hernandez can get burned trying to cover an athletic tight end or running back in the passing game, but does pretty well when protecting a zone." Top 6-50 Recruits (List) Note: I know it starts at 1. I can't figure out how to stop that.
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