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LET'S DO THIS! I'm only going to list explanations for picks that I feel actually deserve it, probably only the top 16 or so. The rest just feel like, "Well, yeah, that's a logical pick" and don't really warrant much commentary. 1. Tennessee Titans - WR Raheem Robinson 6-3 192 R Oklahoma State [Speed] 83 Is it any surprise RR makes it to #1 in this mock? No. A lot of people have selected Tyler Jones to go #1 recently, but I'm rock hard for some Raheem. I understand Tennessee already has a few okay WRs on staff, but Raheem just seems like a can't miss home run here. His amazing performance in his bowl game (against a secondary with a notable amount of players who will get drafted this year) should have only solidified his #1 position. The Titans said a few days back that they already figured out who they were taking. Either this confirmed their suspicions or they're reevaluating their choice. 2. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Tyler Jones 6-1 257 R Mississippi State [Contain] 83 I could see this frustrating Soluna a bit as I truly think he is hoping for Raheem at #2. But Tyler Jones looks like a really good prospect. Soluna never had that elite defensive end at Miami (as you'll see later), so it would be scary to think what he could do with one. As my good friend Franz Kafka recently wrote about, Tyler looks like a better prospect than Anthony and he clearly deserves to go Top 2 after his combine (and before his pro day is published). It's hard to find a good real life comparison for Jones' combine. He's got more straight line speed, but slightly less explosiveness and agility than J.J. Watt. Please, please note that when I mean "slightly less", I mean hundreds of a second. He lacks the vertical height of Watt (and no broad jump to speak of), but his speed and agility drills were fantastic. 3. San Diego Los Angeles Chargers - DE Anthony Miller 6-3 253 R Tennessee [Blitz] 83 When push comes to shove, I don't think this pick is made by San Diego, but I can't predict trades. I'm also not confident in this being Miller himself to San Diego because they need a lot of different holes filled, but DE is definitely one of them. He got bested by Jones at every step on the combine, but Miller still looks like a solid player at the NFL level. Miller almost had a down year in 2019 by racking up 9 sacks in 8 stat sheet appearances, but outside of Air Force I don't think his competition was particularly noteworthy in those games. Still, he's had a great career and showed wonderful athleticism at the combine, so a top 3 pick is wonderful for Miller. Just don't Bosa the Chargers. 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ILB C.J. Thomas 6-4 240 R Georgia [Mike] 82 Unpopular opinion (I have not seen the pro days), but I think Thomas is the best ILB prospect in the draft. There's so much hype around Akeel, but his level of competition just doesn't hold a candle to Thomas' at the college level. This is particularly obvious this past season where it feels like Thomas just put up better stats than Akeel against much better competition. So while Rabid claims he'll 100% take Akeel at this pick, I think it should be C.J. Thomas. The combine results only solidified this for me (again, pro days could change it) as, like Jones over Miller, Thomas outpaced Morris at every drill. 5. Cleveland Browns - CB Cameron Marshall 6-1 170 R Penn State [Zone Coverage] 81 With their trades in the offseason, it feels crystal clear that Cleveland will go double defense in these two picks. And they could use talent at all levels on defense, but Miller and Jones are both gone, so I don't expect defensive line help here. Other than that, I really don't know where Cleveland goes. I feel like Cornerback is obvious, so my #1 CB Marshall will probably go to them. I like Marshall over Reed purely due to Reed's athlete nature. I feel like Marshall just has more experience at the position and will hit the ground running for Cleveland. 6. Cleveland Browns - ILB Akeel Morris 6-5 234 R Nevada [Mike] 83 So this pick probably gets traded for the issue of not really know what to do here that I suspect the Browns also feel. It's too early for our 3rd DE, which leaves a bunch of positions I don't think Cleveland are too keen on upgraded immediately. This would probably be Corey Davis if it was a lower pick, but that would be a bad pick at #6. So at the end of the day, I feel they take the best defender left on the board and that is Akeel. Despite calling Thomas over him, I don't hate Akeel. I think he's a fantastic player and would be a wonderful addition to any team. Yes, Cleveland has an inside linebacker who went +2 off his rookie year. They could also go Blakely here, but again, they seem to have a youngish player they like (tried to resign) at that position. So... Trade down. 7. Dallas Cowboys - FS Aaron Blakely 6-1 182 R Wisconsin [Man Coverage] 82 There's a glaring hole at Free Safety for Dallas and Blakley slides in nicely. I really like Blakely's time at Wisconsin and think he projects as a future All-Pro in the NFLHC. He played wonderfully against all levels of competition which, playing in the Big Ten, was often high. His combine displayed excellent speed and agility you (usually) expect out of a guy who prefers zone coverage. To match that quickness, he packs some impressive lower body explosiveness into his game, making him feel like a complete package of a player. 8. Green Bay Packers - CB/WR Marquise Reed 6-1 173 R Clemson [Man Coverage] 82 Green Bay is one of the many teams in NFLHC with garbage corners and Reed would be a welcomed selection at this pick. I do think he's got all the tools to excel at the next level. I have hope that the Packers would slot him in at #2 or even #3 his rookie season, however, so he can get his feet wet playing full-time corner and get up to speed. But maybe I'm overselling the impact of being a two-way player. 9. Kansas City Chiefs - RB Terrence Rodgers 6-0 173 R Mississippi State [Speed] 82 Substance abuse problem aside, I am in love with this kid. He ran on LSU. He ran on Auburn. He ran through Arkansas. And then he ran on Alabama. Every challenge this kid faced his last year, he powered on through. Yes, he got a lot of carries to help accumulate those stats, but he wasn't playing with the best line in the nation either. His pro day is glowing and he seems like the most pro ready player out there. KC really needs an upgrade at RB and Rodgers would be a wonderful addition. 10. Green Bay Packers - DT Christian Okonkwo 6-5 297 R Oregon [2-Gap] 82 This wasn't an easy choice to project as I think GB really wants an ILB here, but Okonkwo is being hailed as the best DT prospect ever so they'll "settle" for him. While not traditionally wanted in the 4-3 Green seems to use, they still need depth and upgrades at defensive tackle. Their #2 is a 79 OVR Year-3 player and Okonkwo would certainly be the #1 DT after his rookie year. While I'm waiting on his pro day before I officially make up my mind about him, Christian did squash pretty much every opposing center and guard that stepped up against him this season. 11. Seattle Seahawks - QB Graham Burnett 6-3 211 R Oklahoma [Pocket] 82 I truly believe Burnett is the best QB prospect in the draft. A lot of people may think Fisher, but I feel like Seattle is not married to a scrambler/hybrid like others seem to think. While he's not the most pro ready QB out there (which is probably Sean Hamilton), I think his ceiling is the highest. I feel like Seattle has the talent around the QB in their line and receivers to help smooth the transition from college to pro for Burnett. This would be a great spot for the kid to go and succeed. 12. Houston Texans - CB Blake Turner 6-3 176 R Ohio State [Man Coverage] 81 I feel like I don't need to explain this one. Houston really needs an upgrade at corner, Turner is the best on the board left, and most mocks have us taking him too. I'd be pretty stoked with this pick. 13. Chicago Bears - C Lucas Hurd 6-4 276 R Alabama [Pass Blocking] 83 Hurd is really, really good. His pro day is absolutely glowing and the only reason he falls this far is due to people not respecting the position's importance. This would be a criminal heist by the Bears and I almost want to go back and give this guy to someone else just so I don't have him past his due. But Chicago's center game is garbage and would welcome a potential HoFer on board. 14. Oakland Raiders - DE Eric Jennings 6-3 259 R Oregon [Blitz] 81 I think Jennings is the #3 DE in this class. While I have been trying to unravel the mystery of this pick since the trade (ask Alien), this seems like a fine deal anyway. Alien has always needed a DE like the other perpetually good teams, so Jennings is welcomed. Eric seemed to boom against the worst teams with multiple sacks, but he still got to the QB against good teams. While not Miller or Jones, I liked Jennings' combine and think it pushes him well above two potential busts in Flowers and Self. 15. Atlanta Falcons - DE Shah Vereen 6-1 259 R South Carolina [Blitz] 81 Another team that needs an upgraded pass rush and another player who I like more than Self and Flowers. He did snag two sacks against both Alabama and Florida this past season, so he's shown the potential. Unfortunately for him, though, this is more about my hatred of Self and Flowers than my love of Vereen. 16. Washington Redskins - CB Tom Wyman 5-10 180 R TCU [Man Coverage] 80 I almost mocked a WR here because "you can never have too many weapons", but corner is a real need for the 'skins. I don't particularly like Wyman, but I fear Harris is all combine and no game tape, so Wyman is the pick here. 17. Minnesota Vikings - WR Sam Hiller-Weeden 6-3 205 R Fresno State [Target] 82 Without Henson, the Vikings need to step their passing game up to have ANY shot at not being the 2019 Bengals. I like SHW more than Jeremy Cook by a smidgen, but it's virtually a toss-up. 18. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Jordan Harris 5-10 185 R North Dakota State [Zone Coverage] 80 After trading Seaverns, they really need a new #1 corner. This is a risky dice roll and could screw the Bengals over, but it's not getting any better if they take a different position here. 19. Miami Dolphins - DE Dexter Flowers 6-1 265 R Southern Miss [Blitz] 82 Despite his nose candy habit (and this being Miami), the 'fins really need a second DE to sure up that defense. Particularly since they traded away their #1 ILB and look like they're moving to a 4-3. 20. Denver Broncos - QB Brett Fisher 6-2 211 R Miami [Scrambling] 82 I think Denver goes RB and QB in the first two rounds, but I don't like any of the other RBs here. So QB here and I do like Fisher, just not as much as Burnett. 21. Los Angeles Rams - DT Michael McBride 6-4 313 R Pittsburgh [2-Gap] 81 22. New England - WR Jeremy Cook 6-0 217 R Washington State [Target] 82 23. Baltimore Ravens - RB Arturo Pacheco 5-10 194 R Iowa State [Speed] 81 24. Carolina Panthers - OLB Martin Whiting 6-3 235 R North Carolina [Coverage] 81 25. New Orleans Saints - WR Tom Oldham 6-0 155 R Iowa State [Speed] 81 26. Detroit Lions - OG Russell Benson-Gifford 6-7 260 R South Carolina [Pass Blocking] 81 27. New Orleans Saints - DE Isaiah Hall 6-2 246 R Bowling Green [Contain] 81 28. Indianapolis Colts - RB Marcus Williams 5-10 219 R Nebraska [Speed] 81 29. Philadelphia Eagles - OG Ian Hendrickson 6-5 319 R Arizona [Run Blocking] 81 30. Arizona Cardinals - DE Jared Self 6-2 256 R Michigan [Blitz] 81 31. New York Jets - OT Taylor Randolph 6-4 278 R Iowa [Pass Blocking] 83 32. San Francisco 49ers - OG Nick Ramos 6-4 297 R Colorado State [Pass Blocking] 81
Ok, the old NCAA Passer Rating was defined to give the average player a 100... from the 1970s. So I decided to adjust it for the modern era. Taking all passers (min 14 attempts/game) in the last 9 years (2005-2013 seasons), I tried to develop a new formula. Average Completions: 202.98 Average Attempts: 335.89 Average Yards: 2443.12 Average Touchdowns: 17.28 Average Interceptions: 9.67 So, with those in mind, I adjusted the numbers of the old Passer Formula. Behold: Please keep in mind that the Passer Rating was actually designed to give the average player a 100, so the (average completions * x + average yards * y)/Attempts = 100. TDs and Interceptions are suppose to cancel out. The numbers aren't EXACT, but I wanted to stay true to the 100, 8.4, 330, 200 (respectively) numbers used before.