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    tsweezy

    2021 Season ELO Ratings

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    I spent a little bit of time learning VBA, reading up on ranking methodologies, and put this together. The idea is that comparing two teams rankings gives you the expected winning percentage: EXP = 1/(1+10diff/400). For example, a 200 point difference corresponds to the higher rank team having a 76% win expectancy. Basically, if you beat a team by more than expected then your rating goes up. Below is the full table including strength of schedule (average elo of opponents). Overall, throughout the season the higher ranked team won 81% of the time (or 90% if you only include games where there was > 55% winning chance). For better viewing: here is a google sheet link which contains these rankings for every year 2013-2021 including a "continued" version where end-of-season rankings are used to start the next year (regressed 25% of the way back to 1000). Any feedback or comments is very welcome!

     https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf5D2ZRwl6FDgeyYP0CQgycUWcImioCMs4kwyjpkap0/edit?usp=sharing

     

    Team ELO Rating ELO Rank Record SOS Rating SOS Rank
    Auburn 1202.32914 1 11,1 1025.4074 37
    Purdue 1188.318092 2 11,1 1023.8173 40
    Missouri 1184.901336 3 11,1 1031.7107 32
    TCU 1178.993785 4 11,1 1022.4051 42
    Arizona 1171.598624 5 10,2 1020.3534 51
    Michigan 1162.727399 6 11,1 1012.566 58
    Oklahoma State 1161.872144 7 10,2 1011.6864 60
    Air Force 1156.656684 8 11,1 990.43077 81
    Utah 1149.891993 9 10,2 1025.174 39
    Nevada 1147.055304 10 10,2 966.73134 106
    Ohio State 1135.148526 11 10,2 1032.9579 27
    Duke 1134.716708 12 10,2 1021.016 48
    SMU 1127.768884 13 10,2 995.9871 77
    Rice 1126.377148 14 11,1 936.91553 124
    Toledo 1115.643749 15 9,3 1000.6124 72
    Hawaii 1115.23373 16 10,2 1001.7704 71
    Navy 1114.753899 17 9,3 999.8614 74
    Georgia 1112.178874 18 9,3 1039.3804 12
    Boston College 1109.754753 19 10,2 993.12183 80
    Illinois 1106.386692 20 9,3 1003.5831 67
    Florida 1104.725668 21 9,3 1038.914 15
    Oregon 1101.735526 22 10,2 1003.1776 68
    LSU 1101.42394 23 8,4 1042.8222 11
    Western Michigan 1097.245353 24 10,2 1003.7217 66
    Alabama 1095.044127 25 7,5 1049.8519 7
    UCLA 1094.114317 26 8,4 1020.0097 52
    Tennessee 1087.33161 27 7,5 1071.5829 1
    South Carolina 1087.222338 28 8,4 1031.7978 31
    Louisville 1085.480883 29 9,3 994.64845 79
    Kansas 1081.801014 30 9,3 1013.2414 57
    Texas A&M 1080.038128 31 8,4 1025.9546 36
    Temple 1079.485875 32 9,3 990.06652 84
    Arizona State 1077.849196 33 7,5 1036.2921 22
    Notre Dame 1071.758405 34 7,5 1037.5105 21
    Southern Miss 1069.739361 35 8,4 929.52309 128
    Akron 1066.455066 36 8,4 990.14973 83
    Clemson 1063.768063 37 7,5 1048.1502 8
    Virginia Tech 1059.916899 38 8,4 1038.4954 18
    Wisconsin 1057.284411 39 7,5 1039.1321 14
    San Diego State 1056.593193 40 8,4 976.49995 100
    Penn State 1052.431017 41 7,5 1028.6341 34
    Colorado State 1049.211933 42 7,5 984.42536 91
    Ohio 1044.743629 43 7,5 988.90686 87
    Nebraska 1043.022968 44 6,6 1039.1612 13
    Michigan State 1041.652392 45 5,7 1067.6645 2
    BYU 1041.204851 46 8,4 912.68381 132
    Baylor 1040.351348 47 7,5 1022.026 46
    Georgia Tech 1040.277181 48 6,6 1033.0008 26
    Mississippi State 1037.31612 49 7,5 1034.9085 25
    USC 1037.146238 50 6,6 1066.6469 3
    Wyoming 1034.087634 51 6,6 989.49017 85
    Washington 1032.269693 52 7,5 1025.2501 38
    Central Michigan 1030.181894 53 7,5 966.40559 108
    Eastern Michigan 1029.234093 54 7,5 1007.5005 64
    Memphis 1028.717039 55 7,5 947.77456 118
    Texas Tech 1024.284611 56 7,5 1027.944 35
    Miami (FL) 1021.000995 57 6,6 1013.6437 55
    Oklahoma 1020.742269 58 7,5 1022.3689 43
    Boise State 1019.043374 59 6,6 1018.2275 53
    East Carolina 1012.123601 60 7,5 961.74287 109
    North Dakota State 1011.633834 61 2,2 984.05393 92
    Maryland 1010.324252 62 6,6 1046.3101 9
    Pittsburgh 1007.972253 63 6,6 989.44222 86
    UCF 1006.520727 64 7,5 1010.005 61
    Kentucky 1004.223116 65 5,7 1043.0407 10
    Texas 1002.323247 66 6,6 1010 62
    Virginia 1002.052539 67 6,6 1002.1377 69
    Northwestern 1001.935962 68 6,6 1037.749 20
    Wake Forest 1001.785067 69 6,6 1000.1938 73
    Indiana 1001.479537 70 6,6 1023.2303 41
    Oregon State 998.2875964 71 7,5 985.31651 90
    Rutgers 996.8626721 72 5,7 1032.7368 28
    UL-Lafayette 994.5878254 73 8,4 942.01477 122
    Georgia State 993.5532684 74 6,6 932.36532 126
    Bowling Green 989.1927446 75 7,5 954.63318 111
    Miami (OH) 986.1565152 76 6,6 976.67297 99
    Louisiana Tech 984.2143059 77 7,5 981.62419 96
    Florida International 983.093387 78 6,6 970.04171 105
    Fresno State 982.541266 79 4,8 1006.9521 65
    Minnesota 976.5450805 80 4,8 1050.8467 5
    Washington State 976.4165938 81 5,7 1022.3067 44
    UAB 975.227284 82 6,6 988.53856 88
    Buffalo 972.3116479 83 4,8 973.84331 102
    Western Kentucky 972.3111216 84 7,5 947.27631 119
    Colorado 963.224721 85 5,7 1020.6054 50
    Army 962.3296339 86 4,8 1013.274 56
    Houston 961.8305534 87 5,7 1022.2581 45
    Florida Atlantic 957.7010501 88 5,7 950.86494 115
    Florida State 951.5052227 89 4,8 1034.9263 24
    Ball State 951.382629 90 5,7 1038.1447 19
    Arkansas State 951.2585753 91 5,7 923.64852 129
    South Alabama 949.3031057 92 6,6 934.71964 125
    Syracuse 947.9893332 93 5,7 996.23421 76
    Marshall 947.0173314 94 6,6 942.99684 121
    UL-Monroe 946.3286978 95 6,6 922.83167 130
    Iowa 941.7307694 96 3,9 1050.6316 6
    USF 941.6505096 97 5,7 930.58995 127
    Arkansas 938.1915117 98 3,9 1052.9673 4
    UTEP 937.6916842 99 4,8 975.19688 101
    Utah State 935.4219772 100 5,7 982.87132 94
    California 934.5673658 101 2,10 1032.0262 30
    Iowa State 930.2055515 102 3,9 1035.4566 23
    Texas State 927.7411956 103 6,6 948.08748 117
    Ole Miss 924.6487841 104 2,10 1038.6837 16
    UTSA 917.1663913 105 4,8 999.23435 75
    NC State 912.5558529 106 3,9 990.37568 82
    Troy 912.5242691 107 4,8 945.36712 120
    Kansas State 911.912505 108 3,9 1017.0251 54
    Eastern Washington 905.9388604 109 1,3 952.5089 113
    Cincinnati 905.0384797 110 4,8 977.05289 98
    Appalachian State 903.1528639 111 5,7 922.30315 131
    Tulsa 899.2766836 112 3,9 1007.8222 63
    Connecticut 891.9335349 113 2,10 954.50587 112
    Vanderbilt 889.0819351 114 3,9 1021.2116 47
    Stanford 888.074958 115 1,11 1038.6171 17
    Old Dominion 886.8775975 116 4,8 956.12883 110
    Northern Illinois 886.5899817 117 3,9 994.98896 78
    New Mexico 878.6229381 118 4,8 978.92809 97
    North Texas 872.7879397 119 2,10 966.674 107
    West Virginia 869.4663759 120 2,10 1032.251 29
    Middle Tennessee 867.2349794 121 3,9 940.9853 123
    Coastal Carolina 859.1816001 122 2,10 948.54442 116
    Tulane 847.5711566 123 1,11 986.74428 89
    Kent State 846.0306779 124 1,11 1029.7196 33
    North Carolina 830.942644 125 1,11 1020.7747 49
    San Jose State 816.6544289 126 1,11 1001.7975 70
    New Mexico State 816.3238287 127 1,11 952.1191 114
    UMass 802.5545193 128 1,11 982.42944 95
    Georgia Southern 785.5786374 129 0,12 972.32931 104
    Charlotte 772.5241743 130 0,12 972.77014 103
    UNLV 750.3876262 131 0,12 1011.9776 59
    Liberty 740.3787961 132 0,12 983.6903 93

     

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    Also, should have had it ready to go right away, but here are the CCG projections. Most of these teams are within only a few places in the rankings which is why they show as such toss-ups.

     

    CUSA -    Rice (70.8%)

    MAC -      WMU (54.4%)

    Fun Belt - UL-Lafayette (50.2%)

    PAC -       Utah (56.9%)

    AAC -       Navy (55.1%)

    ACC -       Duke (53.6%)

    SEC -       Auburn (52.5%)

    BIG 12 -   TCU (52.5%)

    MWC -     Air Force (56%)

    B1G -       Purdue (53.7%)

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    On 6/11/2018 at 1:27 PM, tsweezy said:

    Also, should have had it ready to go right away, but here are the CCG projections. Most of these teams are within only a few places in the rankings which is why they show as such toss-ups.

     

    CUSA -    Rice (70.8%)

    MAC -      WMU (54.4%)

    Fun Belt - UL-Lafayette (50.2%)

    PAC -       Utah (56.9%)

    AAC -       Navy (55.1%)

    ACC -       Duke (53.6%)

    SEC -       Auburn (52.5%)

    BIG 12 -   TCU (52.5%)

    MWC -     Air Force (56%)

    B1G -       Purdue (53.7%)

    So far so good on these projections....

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