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    ZackTyzwyz

    [2022] Cupcakes and Hellscapes: OOC and Independent Schedule Rankings

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    Cupcakes and Hellscapes

    2022 OOC and Independent Schedule Rankings

     

    Out of Conference Rankings:

    Welcome to this late version of my article where I arbitrarily rate each team's Out of Conference schedule. Unfortunately I didn't do this for FCS teams, but feel free if any of you guys want to do this same thing for it. Each team's out of conference schedule difficultly was determined by averaging out the team ratings of each team they play. An adjusted ranking was also created to represent relative difficulty given the rating of the team vs the average rating of their opponent. This was calculated using team rating - average OOC opponent rating. A negative value means that their OOC opponents are a better team rating-wise than they are.

     

    The Top 10 Hardest OOC Schedules:

    1. Boise State Broncos (353.7 Opponent Average Rating)
    2. Stanford Cardinal (343.2 Opponent Average Rating)
    3. Ohio State Buckeyes (336.9 Opponent Average Rating)
    4. Syracuse Orange (338.2 Opponent Average Rating)
    5. Oregon Ducks (337.2 Opponent Average Rating)
    6. Rice Owls (336.7 Opponent Average Rating)
    7. Vanderbilt Commodores (335.0 Opponent Average Rating)
    8. TCU Horned Frogs (334.7 Opponent Average Rating)
    9. Colorado State Rams (334.1 Opponent Average Rating)
    10. Missouri Tigers (333.3 Opponent Average Rating)

     

    The Bottom 10 Easiest OOC Schedules:

    1. Georgia Bulldogs (262.7 Opponent Average Rating)
    2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (268.8 Opponent Average Rating)
    3. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (275.4 Opponent Average Rating)
    4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (276.1 Opponent Average Rating)
    5. Kansas State Wildcats (276.9 Opponent Average Rating)
    6. Virginia Tech Hokies (280.2 Opponent Average Rating)
    7. USF Bulls (280.4 Opponent Average Rating)
    8. Central Michigan Chippewas (280.8 Opponent Average Rating)
    9. Louisville Cardinals (282.8 Opponent Average Rating)
    10. Northern Illinois Huskies (282.8 Opponent Average Rating)

     

    The Top 10 Hardest Adjusted OOC Schedules:

    1. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (-112.4 Adjusted Rating)
    2. South Alabama Jaguars (-90.75 Adjusted Rating)
    3. Appalachian State Mountaineers (-72.4 Adjusted Rating)
    4. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-69.8 Adjusted Rating)
    5. Troy Trojans (-66.4 Adjusted Rating)
    6. Georgia Southern Eagles (-58.6 Adjusted Rating)
    7. Texas State Bobcats (-57.8 Adjusted Rating)
    8. Boise State Broncos (-56.4 Adjusted Rating)
    9. North Carolina Tar Heels (-42.9 Adjusted Rating)
    10. Houston Cougars (-42.6 Adjusted Rating)

     

    As you can see, the Sun Belt yet again dominates these rankings due to having some of the lowest average ratings in the FBS since they're still relatively new teams. Here are what the ratings look like without the Sun Belt:

     

    The Top 10 Hardest Adjusted OOC Schedules (Without the Sun Belt):

    1. Boise State Broncos (-56.4 Adjusted Rating)
    2. North Carolina Tar Heels (-42.9 Adjusted Rating)
    3. Houston Cougars (-42.6 Adjusted Rating)
    4. Syracuse Orange (-40.25 Adjusted Rating)
    5. Stanford Cardinal (-36.6 Adjusted Rating)
    6. East Carolina Pirates (-35.6 Adjusted Rating)
    7. Utah State Aggies (-28.8 Adjusted Rating)
    8. Kent State Golden Flashes (-28.4 Adjusted Rating)
    9. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-28.4 Adjusted Rating)
    10. Michigan State Spartans (-26.6 Adjusted Rating)

     

    The Bottom 10 Easiest Adjusted OOC Schedules:

    1. Georgia Bulldogs (82.6 Adjusted Rating)
    2. Temple Owls (69.1 Adjusted Rating)
    3. Toledo Rockets (61.7 Adjusted Rating)
    4. USC Trojans (59.7 Adjusted Rating)
    5. Mississippi State Bulldogs (59.6 Adjusted Rating)
    6. Michigan Wolverines (59.0 Adjusted Rating)
    7. Oklahoma Sooners (58.8 Adjusted Rating)
    8. Purdue Boilermakers (57.1 Adjusted Rating)
    9. TCU Horned Frogs (66.1 Adjusted Rating)
    10. Texas Tech Red Raiders (54.9 Adjusted Rating)

     

    To put it simply, Georgia's rating is 82.6 better than the average rating of their opponents. ULM is 112.4 worse than the average rating of their average opponents. Interestingly, TCU has one of the hardest rated schedules based on average opponent rating alone, but in the adjusted ratings their schedules is rated the 9th easiest simply because their own team rating is so much higher than their quality opponents'. 

     

    Independent Schedule Rankings:

    Why should everyone else have all the fun? Since Independents don't have an OOC schedule, their entire schedule was averaged and ranked. They were also adjusted using the same methodology.

     

    The Independent Schedule Rankings:

    1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (335.2 Opponent Average Rating)
    2. New Mexico State Aggies (304.8 Opponent Average Rating)
    3. Army Black Knights (302.2 Opponent Average Rating)
    4. Liberty Flames (301.1 Opponent Average Rating)
    5. UMASS Minutemen (293.1 Opponent Average Rating)
    6. BYU Cougars (287.8 Opponent Average Rating)

     

    The Adjusted Independent Schedule Rankings:

    1. New Mexico State Aggies (-53.8 Adjusted Rating)
    2. Liberty Flames (-46.9 Adjusted Rating)
    3. UMASS Minutemen (-38.1 Adjusted Rating)
    4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-19.3 Adjusted Rating)
    5. Army Black Knights (-8.6 Adjusted Rating)
    6. BYU Cougars (19.6 Adjusted Rating)

     

    Again, the newer teams again have much harder adjusted schedules than the other independents due to their lower starting ratings. BYU has the only independent schedule in which their overall rating are higher than their average opponent rating.

     

    Full rankings can now be found here!

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    1 hour ago, ZackTyzwyz said:

    Independent Schedule Rankings:

    Why should everyone else have all the fun? Since Independents don't have an OOC schedule, their entire schedule was averaged and ranked. They were also adjusted using the same methodology.

     

    The Independent Schedule Rankings:

    2. New Mexico State Aggies (304.8 Opponent Average Rating)

     

    The Adjusted Independent Schedule Rankings:

    1. New Mexico State Aggies (-53.8 Adjusted Rating)

    Welp, that was certainly a bad decision in retrospect. 

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    1 hour ago, ZackTyzwyz said:

    East Carolina Pirates (-35.6 Adjusted Rating) 

     

    6th when you take out the sunbelt? interesting. i figured it was tough but i didn't know it was this high. good stuff. Going to bookmark this page to help me comfort myself when im like 0-10 later on in the season

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    7 minutes ago, jared2001usa said:

    #15.... well then, I somehow don't have the hardest OOC schedule in the SBC, oh well.

     

     

    I'm gonna get killed these next 3 weeks.

     

    I mean you have the hardest adjusted OOC schedule in the country so have fun with that

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    I play Bama and Notre Dame as 2/3 of my OOC. It seems weird 1 cupcake would drag me down that much. 

     

    Is everything pulling correctly, just seems a little weird to me. Maybe Liberty has that much of an effect I don’t know. 

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    11 minutes ago, jmjacobs said:

    I play Bama and Notre Dame as 2/3 of my OOC. It seems weird 1 cupcake would drag me down that much. 

     

    Is everything pulling correctly, just seems a little weird to me. Maybe Liberty has that much of an effect I don’t know. 

     

    Notre Dame is rated as the #66 team in the country. You’re really only playing one team that’s anywhere close to your rating (Alabama) hence why your adjusted rating looks so bad.

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