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Darman

BOFA ACC Week 3 Stock Up Stock Down

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Week 3 Stock Up/Stock Down
As we finish week three, we start to learn more about the teams in the conference, and the conference as a whole. This is the third edition of BOFA ACC’s Stock Up/Stock Down.

Here is how it works. After each week there will be four categories for judgement. Whether a team or players stock is going up moving to the next week, whether it is going down, whether it is holding steady, or whether it is simply unclear. 
Momentum will play a factor in it, conference and national context will matter, and the results of games other than ones a team or player played in will be taken into account for this. As the schedule goes on, less teams will likely be in the Unclear and Holding Steady category. When the conference schedule starts, results by other teams will start to impact teams not involved. Whether in the conference race or in the national landscape. 

But for now, BOFA ACC presents: Week 2 of Stock Up/Stock Down. 


Stock Up

 

North Carolina - The Tar Heels are in a stretch of games right now where they should go 2-0. 
Although the level of opponent isn’t good, as they play App State and South Dakota State, the level of the Tar Heels isn’t great either. It wasn’t impossible for the Tar Heels to finish the season with one or fewer wins if they had a dud this week, but thankfully, that didn’t happen. UNC handled App State easily, getting strong performances by QB Mitchell Denton, and collecting three sacks. They also had a punt return for a touchdown by Caleb Stuckey who should receive one of the game balls for the Tar Heels. Star kicker Jeremy Bouchard, who may be the best player on North Carolina, missed his only field goal attempt, which may be something to watch going forward.

 

Bryce Thompson and the Duke rushing attack - Duke finished 2022 with over 2000 combined rushing yards between Bryce Thompson and Christian Collins. The run game wasn’t super effective against Alabama, but it showed up in the Blue Devils second game against Georgia Tech. Thompson and Collins combined for over 250 yards and four touchdowns as the Duke offense trashed the Georgia Tech defense on the road. Duke hosts Maryland next, and if the run game can continue to be a strength for the Blue Devils, it’s a good sign for their post season aspirations. 

 

Stock Down

 

Wake Forest - The Demon Deacons are a bad football team. Chris Billings has had a disappointing college career, but Wake Forest made him look like a future NFL player. There is really only one good thing for Wake Forest this year. Their next opponent is Yale, a FCS team who should be an easier game for Wake Forest, but a loss there makes them likely an 0-12 team. Wake doesn’t have the advantage of playing UNC or Georgia Tech in conference, which would have been their most winnable games this year. 

 

Georgia Tech - At some point in the season, Georgia Tech’s lack of talent wouldn’t be enough to keep them out of this category. In the first ACC game for Georgia Tech, they faced off against a strong Duke team and got blown out. While that isn’t a surprise, there wasn’t really anything that went well for the Yellow Jackets. Their defense was poor in the run game and the pass game, the offense was poor in the run and the pass game, and they missed their only field goal. They lost the turnover battle, penalty battle, sack battle, and third down conversion battle. Georgia Tech was hoping that some of the positives from last week would replicate themselves this week, but that didn’t happen. They face an easier opponent in two weeks, after their bye week, and that may tell us more about the young talent in Atlanta than this game against Duke. 

 

Boston College - The Eagles won, and that’s all that should matter to the team. But boy they didn’t look good doing it. Boston College shouldn’t need two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to beat an Old Dominion team projected to be near the bottom of their conference and they shouldn’t need to rely on those two missed kicks from Old Dominion to escape. A win is a win, but Boston College needs to rapidly find their identity in order to meet their preseason expectations. They are 2-1 now, but they have a date with Clemson coming up after their bye. The second half of their schedule isn’t particularly daunting, but Boston College needs to show something in the game against Clemson. Their performances so far don’t make me think that an upset is super possible, but who knows. Clemson hasn’t played an opponent as talented as BC. BC needs to shape up quickly in order to give the Tigers a scare. 

 

Holding Steady

 

Louisville - The Cardinals managed to pull off a second close victory against the Wolfpack in week three, but the troubling signs from week two haven’t gone away. This game is a positive for Louisville’s bowl hopes, as a loss would have put them closer to the bubble, but the offense is still unbalanced and Louisville needed a big fourth quarter to overcome NC State. They need a win at Western Kentucky next week, because the next stretch of games is very tough. They could easily go 0-3 against Virginia, Alabama, and Florida State, however, this win against NC State gives them a little bit of a cushion.

 

Virginia and Pitt - Both of these teams played one possession games, at home, against really good teams. They both lost, but I don’t think this game tells us many negative things about these teams. Both teams still look like second tier contenders in their division along with Miami and I don’t think anything about this result should change that. The Virginia loss was probably more painful, because they missed an extra point in a one point loss, but both losses were heartbreaks. Both teams need to play better if they want to ensure bowl eligibility and possibly contend for a division title but my outlook on them is still the same as it was before. 


Unclear

NC State - The Wolfpack entered this game on a two game win streak, and had a good opportunity to make it three, and put themselves in contention for a bowl game. This was probably their best chance to steal a win necessary to get to six, but they still have an outside chance of making a bowl. The only reason they are unclear, versus in the stock down category, is because they have always been a long shot to make a bowl and this doesn’t really change their preseason expectations. They would have loved to finish this game off stronger, but unfortunately they couldn’t stop Nick Carr and the Cardinals in the fourth quarter from storming ahead. 

 

Florida State - Florida State losing to Notre Dame at home isn’t really a bad loss, but it clouds FSU’s present. The Seminoles were the third ranked ACC team in the reputable polls, but Notre Dame is a tough team. There are a couple ways to look at this loss. The good, at least this wasn’t a conference game. Florida State won’t play a conference opponent until week six, so it’s hard to say what this game has on their conference championship aspirations. They are also still likely to make a bowl, with a good number of winnable games on their schedule. Still, I’m not convinced that Florida State has a ton of offensive upside with Brett England having a pedestrian performance and the run game being stagnant. The defense seems legit so far though, and they will help keep the Seminoles in games and will help keep the offense afloat. 

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Surprised Mike Lucas wasn't Stock Down

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28 minutes ago, Darman said:

because they have always been a long shot to make a bowl and this doesn’t really change their preseason expectations

preseason expectations from day 1 have been a bowl game. this loss doesn't change that

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5 hours ago, npklemm said:

Surprised Mike Lucas wasn't Stock Down

 

Honestly I am not sure what I'm gonna do with him.  This has been his MO, he plays some really solid games but totally falls flat on his face in games like this.  Do I play the RS Freshman?  He can't likely do any worse....

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13 hours ago, ImposterCauster said:

preseason expectations from day 1 have been a bowl game. this loss doesn't change that

I take a lot of my preseason expectations from storms predictions. I always thought you were better than a 4 win team though. The goal certainly is to make a bowl, but from an outsider perspective it's seemed like a longer shot than other teams

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