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Swipet

Will we experience a recession in 2020?

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I've honestly wanted to get peoples opinions on this stuff with quarantine,job loss, stimulus checks and everything. Here is a chart that compares the beginning of this year compared to crashes in the last century. 

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Even with a market resurgence in the last month thanks in part to some big bailouts and stimulus checks, it remains to be seen if the markets are going to keep going down in the long-term like in 2007 or is this just a minor blimp and everything will return back to normal after the pandemic is over. Curious to see what other people think in these strange times. 

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stonks only go up

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Harry Truman said, " It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours."

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I have very little doubt that this will continue, its more a question of how long. The stimulus checks will certainly help but the longer this lasts the less good they will do, and its going to be harder and harder for congress to push these through the more often times they do it. Not to mention that its really too early for us to have seen some of the indirect impacts that certain sectors of the economy going down will have on other sectors in the long term. 

 

I am not a finance person or anything so this is really just my load of hot air, but I would guess we don't see a return to real sustained growth until after either a vaccine is produced or herd immunity is gained to the point we no longer have to take major precautions. 

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Trump will save us, look how much moneys he has.

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As of right now the S&P 500 has rebounded and is only down 13.35% since the beginning of the year. I think it is likely we will experience a recession though. There were other factors that had us heading in that direction before this happened and it seems unlikely that we will bounce back immediately when it is over. The economy will have to ramp back up and that will take some time.  I don’t feel like we are going to have a 5 year downturn, but I would be surprised if we end 2020 up in the market. 

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The fed and trump just keep winning and winning and winning. Anyone else sick of all the winning?

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Wait till Q2 earnings season.

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Market hasn't hit it's hard second bounce yet either... it is in a state of consolidation and those that are/were in cash positions before this are awaiting secondary market fall outs to extend the slump for now and to better position themselves to take advantage of deals right now. I would be looking at the futures market and options too while this is going on to see where the money is moving to and set yourself up accordingly.

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5 hours ago, Nittany Boiler said:

Harry Truman said, " It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours."

so its a depression recession?

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In my very unexperienced opinion I think we were due for a recession anyway and a pandemic is not exactly great for the economy.

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