Popular Post Piercewise1 101 Posted March 3 Popular Post Report Share Posted March 3 First, it is important to note that draft tiebreakers are not the same as playoff tiebreakers. Among teams with identical records, the first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (SoS). The team with the worst SoS will pick first – losing to weaker opponents implies that a team is worse than the others. With that in mind, let’s look at the current draft position and how it could change. Team – Record - SoS 1. Tampa Bay (1-11, 0.493) 2. Arizona (1-11, 0.521) – SOS 4 games 'behind' TBY 3. Carolina (1-11, 0.556) – SOS 9 games 'behind' TBY 4. San Diego (2-10, 0.500) 5. Houston (3-9, 0.507) Remaining Schedules Tampa Bay: @ATL, CIN, NOL, CAR (19-29) (18-18 without Carolina) Arizona: @SFO, DEN, LAR, @SEA (26-22) Carolina: @NOL, CLE, ATL, @TBY (18-30) (17-19 without Tampa Bay) San Diego: @LV, @LAR, KCY, DEN (29-19) Houston: JAX, KCY, @IND, TEN (29-19) Analysis The week 17 rematch between Tampa Bay and Carolina could very well hand the #1 seed to the loser, especially if it’s the Buccaneers. They already have the easiest schedule through 12 games and that gap will only grow based on upcoming opponents. But if it should come down to SoS, here’s how the current 1-11 fanbases should be cheering over the final quarter of the season: Tampa Bay Root for: AFC West, Bears, Lions (increases Arizona’s SoS) Root for: Packers, Rams (increases Carolina’s SoS) Root against: AFC North, Vikings You played the AFC North, while Arizona played the West; remember, for draft purposes you want your opponents to do badly so it makes you look even worse by comparison. You don’t have nearly as many unique games from Carolina due to their being in your division, but there are a few that can help. Arizona Root for: AFC North, Cowboys, Eagles, Football Team Root against: AFC West, Bears, Lions Basically the inverse of the above, but now most of the NFC East can really help you as well since they played both Tampa Bay and Carolina. Carolina Root for: AFC West, Bears, Lions, Vikings Root against: AFC North , Packers, Rams A mix of similarities to Tampa Bay (where it helps you both against Arizona) and differences. Packers, Rams, and Vikings are unique opponents and can help separate you from your divisional rival (Cardinals are unique too, but their record is more important than their impact on your SoS). Good luck (?) to all teams in week 14! Jieret, D Stack, llamas and 19 others 19 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Minnow 547 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 5 minutes ago, Piercewise1 said: Root against: AFC North, Vikings Rude. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sarge 346 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 Give this guy a medal. Great content dude! Piercewise1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jieret 4,693 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 Really enjoying your contributions to the site. Great job, @Piercewise1! Piercewise1, smackemz, Sarge and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rabidsnowman 2,467 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 We close out the year with 3 winnable home games. I would not at all be surprised to see us win a couple of those and end up picking in the 5-10 range. Of course I'd rather pick #1 but I feel like despite the current standings, we're just about the least likely of this group to lose out. While our defense is still the joke of the league, we at least have figured out our offense somewhat, and that makes us at least modestly competitive relative to the other teams at the bottom. Arizona is almost guaranteed to lose out, given their remaining schedule. They hold a win over us and I'm pretty sure that win trumps our SOS advantage anyway, even if we somehow did lose all the remaining games. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jieret 4,693 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 32 minutes ago, rabidsnowman said: They hold a win over us and I'm pretty sure that win trumps our SOS advantage anyway, even if we somehow did lose all the remaining games. This part (Head-to-head) doesn't really matter for draft position though - it's the 4th tiebreaker behind SOS, Division, and Conference records. rabidsnowman and Rome 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cultur3 1,355 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 Wow our remaining schedule is brutal Quote Link to post Share on other sites
pumph 1,959 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 12 minutes ago, cultur3 said: Wow our remaining schedule is brutal Ours is brutal-er. AND we just came off of a nailbiter with Tennessee. Actually, outside of the game with Houston, which we played with some key, crippling injuries, our schedule the entire second half plus has been a gauntlet. @ Seattle @ Denver San Francisco Indianapolis @ Kansas City Houston @ Tennessee @ Las Vegas @ LA Rams Kansas City Denver Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rome 6,752 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, Jieret said: This part (Head-to-head) doesn't really matter for draft position though - it's the 4th tiebreaker behind SOS, Division, and Conference records. Yeah, I always forget this is the case. We could theoretically redo the draft tiebreaker with a resolution tho. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
nemolee.exe 450 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 Wait, rooting against us means that they will have a worse chance for the #1 Overall Pick? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Piercewise1 101 Posted March 4 Author Report Share Posted March 4 4 hours ago, nemolee.exe said: Wait, rooting against us means that they will have a worse chance for the #1 Overall Pick? The better the Bears do, the higher the Cardinals strength of schedule goes. Which brings down the Cardinals chances of the #1 pick, because losing to good teams --> makes you look better --> lowers your draft position. So Bears wins help Tampa and Carolina; Bears losses help Arizona. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
nemolee.exe 450 Posted March 4 Report Share Posted March 4 3 hours ago, Piercewise1 said: The better the Bears do, the higher the Cardinals strength of schedule goes. Which brings down the Cardinals chances of the #1 pick, because losing to good teams --> makes you look better --> lowers your draft position. So Bears wins help Tampa and Carolina; Bears losses help Arizona. Damn... Arizona unlucky... Teams with a QB... lucky. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
joedchi 2,319 Posted March 4 Report Share Posted March 4 7 minutes ago, nemolee.exe said: Teams with a QB... lucky. There's not many of those left standing Quote Link to post Share on other sites
nemolee.exe 450 Posted March 4 Report Share Posted March 4 14 hours ago, joedchi said: There's not many of those left standing You are actually correct. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rabidsnowman 2,467 Posted March 5 Report Share Posted March 5 20 hours ago, nemolee.exe said: Damn... Arizona unlucky... Teams with a QB... lucky. Seven weeks ago you would not have described us in this fashion....and we have made no changes at QB in that time. So it looks like the Carolina @ Tampa game in the final week of the season is going to be the Ballard Bowl...and the winner (the team that loses the game) will put Matt Ballard on their bench for at least a couple of seasons. Hmm. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dean_Craig_Pelton 2,366 Posted March 5 Report Share Posted March 5 5 minutes ago, rabidsnowman said: Seven weeks ago you would not have described us in this fashion....and we have made no changes at QB in that time. So the Carolina @ Tampa game in the final week of the season is going to be the Ballard Bowl...and the winner will put Matt Ballard on their bench for at least a couple of seasons. Hmm. No way Carolina doesn’t trade down for a haul. And away from division. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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