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[2025] Week 3 Primetime Preview


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TNF

 

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)

Pumph Line: ATL -9.5

 

The Falcons are coming off of a tough loss to the Eagles while the Bucs just can't get their act together so far. Byron Suggs is off to a solid start for the Falcons, and the running game is still doing it's thing. Tampa really doesn't have anything going for it. I've got Tampa's Offense ranked 31st and their Defense ranked 30th (overall worst) through the first two games. While ATL is 21st in Offense and 9th in Defense (14th Overall). The only unit in this game that's been above average so far is the Falcons Defense.

Lead by Early Davis, Devin Frazier, and Darius Jones, Atlanta is great at defending the Pass, and is very good at getting after the Quarterback. But they have struggled defending the run. Luckily for them, Tampa doesn't want to run it very much. This is a perfect match-up for the Falcons Defense, and that to me is the biggest factor.

Tampa's offense has been anemic, scoring the fewest amount of points, having the worst YPA and 3rd Down %. They aren't great at protecting either the Quarterback or the Ball. There's nothing about this team right now that makes me think they can put up more than 2 Touchdowns against this Defense.

Atlanta's Pass Offense hasn't been great, but they are protecting the QB and avoiding Turnovers. Suggs has been slightly beat up, but should be pretty healthy for this game. Atlanta still loves to run (most rush attempts in the league), and that is a recipe for success against the Bucs D.

 

Klemm's Prediction: ATL 24 TB 10

 

SNF

 

Detroit Lions (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1)

Pump Line: DET -7.5

 

The Lions have hard fought victories over the Steelers and Raiders, while the Bears lost a squeaker to the Cowboys before routing the Ravens. MoFo is off to a pretty good start, while Tay-Rod is struggling hard. Detroit's offense is ranked 16th, defense is ranked 6th (9th Overall), while Chicago's offense is 6th, defense is 5th (3rd Overall).

Both Defenses have been very good so far, they both get after the QB very well and create takeaways. The Bears have had an all around performance (of course the Baltimore game influences that quite a bit). While the Lions have given up quite a few rushing yards, but don't allow much per play. The Steelers and Raiders like to run, but weren't very efficient at it against the Lions. However, those teams were fairly efficient on a per play basis while airing it out. Of course, they also have 2nd Most Sacks early on in the season. Lots of pulls and takes here.

The Bears Offense has been among the best running attacks so far. 2nd Most Yards, and 9th best YPC. The Pass Game has been fine, 16th in YPA. Detroit is also off to a great start running the ball, Kenyon Randall is definitely an early MVP Candidate. However, the passing game has been plain bad. Tay-Rod is off to a horrendous start. He's completing under 53% of his passes and has thrown just 1 TD compared to 4 Picks.

I can't imagine either team is getting to 20 Points in this one. 7.5 Points is far too much in a game like this.

 

Klemm's Prediction: DET 17 CHI 14

 

MNF

 

New York Jets (2-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)

Pumph Line: JAX -6.5

 

Both teams are undefeated and off to a great start. The Jets offense is ranked 5th, defense ranked 2nd (2nd Overall), while the Jags offense is ranked 11th, defense is ranked 4th (6th Overall).  This should be a good one.

Wegert is off to a super hot start. His QB Rating is over 100, and back to his normal self. The addition of Sean Bell has paid off as their Run Game is much improved, giving them another way to attack defenses. The great Jets OL is keeping Wegert protected, being tied for fewest Sacks Allowed. The Jags also sport a balanced attack, but the passing game has been more efficient to date. Jake Davis is off to a much better start than Tay-Rod, and Jags fans have to be happy about that. Sowell is rushing for 4.2 YPC, not quite his normal efficient pace. He'll have to do a little better this week.

The Jets have done a great job on a per play basis on defense. They've allowed the 2nd fewest YPC and 5th fewest YPA in the league. They get after the QB as well, getting the 5th most Sacks in the league. One area they can improve on is creating turnovers. Forcing this Jags team to give you the ball gives you a much better chance to win (of course). The Jags have also been great on a per play basis, allowing 3rd Fewest YPC and 6th fewest YPA. They have been excellent at creating turnovers, and right around league average at getting Sacks.

Much like the Lions-Bears game, hard to see either team putting up a lot of points.

 

Klemm's Prediction: JAX 20 NYJ 17

 

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While I agree that we haven't been great against the run this season, we also did just play 2 top 10 rushing attacks in Green Bay and Philly.  Having Kaz Hadley back in a week or so will also help against the run.

 

I also hope that we can open things up a bit and allow Suggs to air it out a bit more.  He was nursing a minor injury, so our scheme really altered to help protect him.  Hopefully we can get him in something that can utilize his talents a bit more and open up the passing game a bit.  I'm excited to see some of these new weapons in the coming weeks!

 

Unsung hero has been Jason Erwin who is top 5 in TE yards and tied for 1st in TDs among TEs.  Suggs seems to be relying on him a lot early. 

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